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Assignment 1

The document estimates volume for two options - Option A includes pizza kits and toppings, while Option B includes pizza only. It estimates volumes based on 24% and 5% brand penetration. For 24% penetration, total units are estimated at 5376 for Option A users and 6151 for non-users. Toppings unit estimates are 4589 for users and 5251 for non-users. Total dollar sales are estimated at $40,275 for users and $46,081 for non-users. For 5% penetration, total units are estimated at 1120 for Option A users and 7689 for non-users. Topping unit estimates are 956 for users and 6564 for non-users.

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Akshita
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97 views10 pages

Assignment 1

The document estimates volume for two options - Option A includes pizza kits and toppings, while Option B includes pizza only. It estimates volumes based on 24% and 5% brand penetration. For 24% penetration, total units are estimated at 5376 for Option A users and 6151 for non-users. Toppings unit estimates are 4589 for users and 5251 for non-users. Total dollar sales are estimated at $40,275 for users and $46,081 for non-users. For 5% penetration, total units are estimated at 1120 for Option A users and 7689 for non-users. Topping unit estimates are 956 for users and 6564 for non-users.

Uploaded by

Akshita
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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VOLUME ESTIMATION

ESTIMATES WITH 24% BRAND PENETRATION


OPTION A: PIZZA KIT AND
OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
TOPPINGS
USERS NON USERS USERS
USER PENETRATION % 24% 76% 24%
95500 Trial Households X 22920 72580 22920
Trial rate top box 30% 15% 22%
Bases rule 80% of top box A 24.00% 12.00% 17.60%

Trial rate second box 57% 59% 48%


Thumb rule 30% of top box B 17.10% 17.70% 14.40%

Weighted trial C=A+B 41.10% 29.70% 32.00%

Adjustments for
ACV D 58% 58% 58%
Awareness E 60% 30% 60%

Adjustment Trial rate F=C*D*E 14.30% 5.17% 11.14%

Trial Household G=F*X 3278 3751 2552

Trial transaction size Y 1.2 1.2 1.1


Trial Units H=G*Y 3934 4501 2808

Repeat Purchase
Trial Household G 3278 3751 2552
Repeat Rate I 22% 22% 22%
Repeat household J=G*I 721 825 562
Repeat purchase unit K 2 2 2
Repeat occations L=K*J 1442 1650 1123
Repeat Transaction Size M 1 1 1
Repeat Units N=M*L 1442 1650 1123

Total Units
Trial Units H 3934 4501 2808
Repeat Units N 1442 1650 1123
Final total Q=N+H 5376 6151 3931

Toppings Trial Rate O 62.50% 62.50%


50% of Trial Qty +
Half of 25% of Additional
50%+(25% * 0.5)
Trial Qty H 3934 4501
Trial Topping Units P=H*O 2459 2813

Trial Transaction size R 1.5 1.5


Trial Toppings Units S=R*P 3688 4220

Repeat Units N 1442 1650


Repeat Toppings Trial O 62.50% 62.50%
Repeat Toppings Size T 1 1

Repeat Toppings Units U=T*O*N 902 1031

Total Toppings Units


Trial Toppings Units S 3688 4220
Repeat Toppings Units U 902 1031
Final Total V 4589 5251

OPTION A: PIZZA KITS AND


OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
TOPPINGS
USERS NON USERS USERS
Total market Units
Pizza Q 5376 6151 3931
Toppings V 4589 5251 0

6.39 Total Market Q* $6.39 34354 39307 25117


1.29 Pizza V*$1.29 5920 6774 0

Dollar Sales Total 40275 46081 25117

Users 40275 25117


Non Users 46081 27589
Total Retail market 86355 52706

Factory Sales 66% = 2/3 0.66 56995 34786


Value of retail
NRFC Hurdle 45000 45000
11995 -10214
VOLUME ESTIMATION

PENETRATION ESTIMATES WITH 5% BRAND PENETRATION


OPTION A: PIZZA KITS
PTION B: PIZZA ONLY OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
AND TOPPINGS
NON USERS USERS NON USERS USERS NON USERS
76% USER PENETRATION % 5% 95% 5% 95%
72580 Trial Households X 4775 90725 4775 90725
12% Trial rate top box 30% 15% 22% 12%
9.60% 80% of top box A 24.00% 12.00% 17.60% 9.60%

42% Trial rate second box 57% 59% 48% 42%


12.60% 30% of top box B 17.10% 17.70% 14.40% 12.60%

22.20% Weighted trial C=A+B 41.10% 29.70% 32.00% 22.20%

Adjustments for
58% ACV D 58% 58% 58% 58%
30% Awareness E 60% 30% 60% 30%

3.86% Adjustment Trial rate F=C*D*E 14.30% 5.17% 11.14% 3.86%

2804 Trial Household G=F*X 683 4688 532 3505

1.1 Trial transaction size Y 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1


3084 Trial Units H=G*Y 820 5626 585 3855

Repeat Purchase
2804 Trial Household G 683 4688 532 3505
22% Repeat Rate I 22% 22% 22% 22%
617 Repeat household J=G*I 150 1031 117 771
2 Repeat per repeater K 2 2 2 2
1234 Repeat occations L=K*J 301 2063 234 1542
1 Repeat Transaction Size M 1 1 1 1
1234 Repeat Units N=M*L 301 2063 234 1542

Total Units
3084 Trial Units H 820 5626 585 3855
1234 Repeat Units N 301 2063 234 1542
4318 Final total Q=N+H 1120 7689 819 5397

Toppings Trial Rate O 62.50% 62.50%


50% of Trial Qty
Half of 25% of Additional
50%+(25% * 0.5)
Trial Qty H 820 5626
Trial Topping Units P=H*O 512 3516

Trial Transaction size R 1.5 1.5


Trial Toppings Units S=R*P 768 5275

Repeat Units N 301 2063


Repeat Toppings Trial O 62.50% 62.50%
Repeat Toppings Size T 1 1

Repeat Toppings Units U=T*O*N 188 1289

Total Toppings Units


Trial Toppings Units S 768 5275
Repeat Toppings Units U 188 1289
Final Total 956 6564

OPTION A: PIZZA KITS


PTION B: PIZZA ONLY OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
AND TOPPINGS
NON USERS USERS NON USERS USERS NON USERS
Total market Units
4318 Pizza 1120 7689 819 5397
0 Toppings 956 6564

27589 7157 49133 5233 34487


0 1233 8467 0 0

27589 Dollar Sales Total 8391 57601 5233 34487

Users 8391 5233


Non Users 57601 34487
Total Retail market 65991 39719

Factory Sales 66% = 2/3 0.66 43554 26215


Value of retail
NRFC Hurdle 45000 45000
-1446 -18785
VOLUME ESTIMATION

ESTIMATES WITH 10% BRAND PENETRATION


OPTION A: PIZZA KITS AND
OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
TOPPINGS
USERS NON USERS USERS NON USERS
USER PENETRATION % 10% 90% 10% 90%
Trial Households X 9550 85950 9550 85950
Trial rate top box 30% 15% 22% 12%
80% of top box A 24.00% 12.00% 17.60% 9.60%

Trial rate second box 57% 59% 48% 42%


30% of top box B 17.10% 17.70% 14.40% 12.60%

Weighted Trial C=A+B 41.10% 29.70% 32.00% 22.20%

Adjustments for
ACV D 58% 58% 58% 58%
Awareness E 60% 30% 60% 30%

Adjustment Trial rate F=C*D*E 14.30% 5.17% 11.14% 3.86%

Trial Household G=F*X 1366 4442 1063 3320

Trial transaction size Y 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1


Trial Units H=G*Y 1639 5330 1170 3652

Repeat Purchase
Trial Household G 1366 4442 1063 3320
Repeat Rate I 22% 22% 22% 22%
Repeat household J=G*I 301 977 234 730
Repeat per repeater K 2 2 2 2
Repeat occations L=K*J 601 1954 468 1461
Repeat Transaction Size M 1 1 1 1
Repeat Units N=M*L 601 1954 468 1461

Total Units
Trial Units H 1639 5330 1170 3652
Repeat Units N 601 1954 468 1461
Final total Q=N+H 2240 7284 1638 5113

Toppings Trial Rate O 62.50% 62.50%


50% of Trial Qty
Half of 25% of Additional
50%+(25% * 0.5)
Trial Qty H 1639 5330
Trial Topping Units P=H*O 1024 3331

Trial Transaction size R 1.5 1.5


Trial Toppings Units S=R*P 1537 4997

Repeat Units N 601 1954


Repeat Toppings Trial O 62.50% 62.50%
Repeat Toppings Size T 1 1

Repeat Toppings Units U=T*O*N 376 1221

Total Toppings Units


Trial Toppings Units S 1537 4997
Repeat Toppings Units U 376 1221
Final Total 1912 6218

OPTION A: PIZZA KITS AND


OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
TOPPINGS
USERS NON USERS USERS NON USERS
Total market Units
Pizza 2240 7284 1638 5113
Toppings 1912 6218

14314 46547 10465 32672


2467 8022 0 0

Dollar Sales Total 16781 54569 10465 32672

Users 16781 10465


Non Users 54569 32672
Total Retail market 71350 43137

Factory Sales 66% = 2/3 0.66 47091 28470


Value of retail
NRFC Hurdle 45000 45000
2091 -16530
VOLUME ESTIMATION

ESTIMATES WITH 15% BRAND PENETRATION


OPTION A: PIZZA KITS AND
OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
TOPPINGS
USERS NON USERS USERS NON USERS
USER PENETRATION % 15% 85% 15% 85%
Trial Households X 14325 81175 14325 81175
Trial rate top box 30% 15% 22% 12%
80% of top box A 24.00% 12.00% 17.60% 9.60%

Trial rate second box 57% 59% 48% 42%


30% of top box B 17.10% 17.70% 14.40% 12.60%

Weighted Trial C=A+B 41.10% 29.70% 32.00% 22.20%

Adjustments for
ACV D 58% 58% 58% 58%
Awareness E 60% 30% 60% 30%

Adjustment Trial rate F=C*D*E 14.30% 5.17% 11.14% 3.86%

Trial Household G=F*X 2049 4195 1595 3136

Trial transaction size Y 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1


Trial Units H=G*Y 2459 5034 1755 3449

Repeat Purchase
Trial Household G 2049 4195 1595 3136
Repeat Rate I 22% 22% 22% 22%
Repeat household J=G*I 451 923 351 690
Repeat per repeater K 2 2 2 2
Repeat occations L=K*J 902 1846 702 1380
Repeat Transaction Size M 1 1 1 1
Repeat Units N=M*L 902 1846 702 1380

Total Units
Trial Units H 2459 5034 1755 3449
Repeat Units N 902 1846 702 1380
Final total Q=N+H 3360 6880 2457 4829

Toppings Trial Rate O 62.50% 62.50%


50% of Trial Qty
Half of 25% of Additional
50%+(25% * 0.5)
Trial Qty H 2459 5034
Trial Topping Units P=H*O 1537 3146

Trial Transaction size R 1.5 1.5


Trial Toppings Units S=R*P 2305 4719

Repeat Units N 902 1846


Repeat Toppings Trial O 62.50% 62.50%
Repeat Toppings Size T 1 1

Repeat Toppings Units U=T*O*N 563 1154

Total Toppings Units


Trial Toppings Units S 2305 4719
Repeat Toppings Units U 563 1154
Final Total 2868 5873

OPTION A: PIZZA KITS AND


OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
TOPPINGS
USERS NON USERS USERS NON USERS
Total market Units
Pizza 3360 6880 2457 4829
Toppings 2868 5873

21471 43962 15698 30856


3700 7576 0 0

Dollar Sales Total 25172 51538 15698 30856

Users 25172 15698


Non Users 51538 30856
Total Retail market 76709 46554

Factory Sales 66% = 2/3 0.66 50628 30726


Value of retail
NRFC Hurdle 45000 45000
5628 -14274
VOLUME ESTIMATION

ESTIMATES WITH 20% BRAND PENETRATION


OPTION A: PIZZA KITS AND
OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
TOPPINGS
USERS NON USERS USERS NON USERS
USER PENETRATION % 20% 80% 20% 80%
Trial Households X 19100 76400 19100 76400
Trial rate top box 30% 15% 22% 12%
80% of top box A 24.00% 12.00% 17.60% 9.60%

Trial rate second box 57% 59% 48% 42%


30% of top box B 17.10% 17.70% 14.40% 12.60%

Weighted Trial C=A+B 41.10% 29.70% 32.00% 22.20%

Adjustments for
ACV D 58% 58% 58% 58%
Awareness E 60% 30% 60% 30%

Adjustment Trial rate F=C*D*E 14.30% 5.17% 11.14% 3.86%

Trial Household G=F*X 2732 3948 2127 2951

Trial transaction size Y 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1


Trial Units H=G*Y 3278 4738 2340 3246

Repeat Purchase
Trial Household G 2732 3948 2127 2951
Repeat Rate I 22% 22% 22% 22%
Repeat household J=G*I 601 869 468 649
Repeat per repeater K 2 2 2 2
Repeat occations L=K*J 1202 1737 936 1299
Repeat Transaction Size M 1 1 1 1
Repeat Units N=M*L 1202 1737 936 1299

Total Units
Trial Units H 3278 4738 2340 3246
Repeat Units N 1202 1737 936 1299
Final total Q=N+H 4480 6475 3276 4545

Toppings Trial Rate O 62.50% 62.50%


50% of Trial Qty
Half of 25% of Additional
50%+(25% * 0.5)
Trial Qty H 3278 4738
Trial Topping Units P=H*O 2049 2961

Trial Transaction size R 1.5 1.5


Trial Toppings Units S=R*P 3073 4442

Repeat Units N 1202 1737


Repeat Toppings Trial O 62.50% 62.50%
Repeat Toppings Size T 1 1

Repeat Toppings Units U=T*O*N 751 1086

Total Toppings Units


Trial Toppings Units S 3073 4442
Repeat Toppings Units U 751 1086
Final Total 3825 5527

OPTION A: PIZZA KITS AND


OPTION B: PIZZA ONLY
TOPPINGS
USERS NON USERS USERS NON USERS
Total market Units
Pizza 4480 6475 3276 4545
Toppings 3825 5527

28629 41376 20931 29041


4934 7130 0 0

Dollar Sales Total 33562 48506 20931 29041

Users 33562 20931


Non Users 48506 29041
Total Retail market 82068 49972

Factory Sales 66% = 2/3 0.66 54165 32982


Value of retail
NRFC Hurdle 45000 45000
9165 -12018

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