Weekly Metals, Mineral & Energy Update— 14 May 2011

Weekly Overview of Commodity

USD / INR Weekly Summary Synopsis of Economic Events

In the week ending May 7, the advance figure for sea-

The rupee has fallen around 0.6 percent so far this year.
sonally adjusted initial claims was 434,000, a decrease
Foreign funds have bought Indian equities in small quan- of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of
tities in three sessions to May 11, but their overall inter- 478,000.
est has been subdued and they have been net sellers of The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Eco-
more than $1 billion of stocks since April 25.
nomic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce,
India's food inflation rate declined for the second con- announced that total March exports of $172.7 billion
secutive week to 7.70 per cent for the week ended April and imports of $220.8 billion resulted in a goods and
30, due to a drop in the prices of onion and milk. services deficit of $48.2 billion, up from $45.4 billion in
February.
Exporters sold the U.S. dollar at around 45.00 per dollar
level and prevented further weakness in the rupee, ac- Preliminary University of Michigan inflation expectations
cording to trade sources. numbers for May fell to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent
previously.

Consumer sentiment rose to 72.4, a three-month peak

and beating an anticipated 70, while April's reading was
upgraded to 69.8 from 69.6.

The US Labor Department said on Friday its Consumer

Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4 percent in April from
March after rising 0.5 percent in March.

China's industrial value-added output rose 13.4 percent

year on year in April, down from March's 14.8-percent
growth, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) re-
ported this week.

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 Weekly Metals, Mineral & Energy Update— 14 May 2011

WEEKLY RECAP - PRECIOUS METALS

ICEX gold June’11 settled 0.33% higher at

Rs.21916/10gm this week. The metal remained in the
range of Rs.22280-21709/10gm.

ICEX Silver July’11 delivery settled 1.77% lower at

Rs.53331/kg.

COMEX gold June’11 settled 0.13% higher at $1493.60/

oz. The contract remained in the range of $1526.80-
1477.60/oz.

COMEX silver July’11 settled 0.78% lower at $35.01/oz.

U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims

decreased last week after previous week’s rise.

German newspaper Die Welt reported that European

leaders are split on how best to help Greece with its debt
issues.

According to the European Union Commission, Greece's

economy is expected to shrink 2.2% in 2011 versus a
prior reading of 1% but it is estimated to grow 1.1% in
2012. Greece is reportedly looking at a budget deficit of
9.5% of GDP for 2011 versus the required 7.6%,

During the last three months of 2010, gold miners cut

their combined hedge position by almost a quarter, ac-
cording to a report by metals consultancy GFMS Ltd. and
Societe Generale.

At the end of the year, miners held contracts to sell 151

short tons of gold on the forward and options markets,
down 24% from the previous quarter. The contracts rep-
resent only 6% of worldwide production in 2010.

Gold Exchange Data (Weekly)

Exchange Open High Low Close Volume OI % Ch.

ICEX Gold Jun’11 21929.00 22280.00 21709.00 21916.00 5877 23 0.33

ICEX Gold 100gm Jun’11 21945.00 22284.00 21725.00 21922.00 2304 22 0.32

COMEX Gold Jun’11 1496.60 1526.80 1477.60 1493.60 227013 513146 0.13

Silver Exchange Data (Weekly)

Exchange Open High Low Close Volume OI % Ch.

ICEX Silver July ’ 11 55400.00 59974.00 49745.00 53331.00 5930 38 -1.77

COMEX Silver July’ 11 35.69 39.47 32.30 35.01 163456 121213 -0.78

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 Weekly Metals, Mineral & Energy Update— 14 May 2011

WEEKLY RECAP - ENERGY

ICEX crude May11 settled 0.63% lower at Rs.4429/

barrel this week.

NYMEX crude June’11 contract settled 2.51% higher at

$99.65barrel.

NYMEX natural gas June’11 contract settled 0.26%

higher at $4.25/mmbtu this week.

EIA report showed that crude inventories increased by

3.78 million barrels to 370,300 million barrels last
week. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million
barrels to 205.9 million.

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in

March, as exports jumped to a new record but imports
rose nearly 5 percent as oil prices jumped.

OPEC held steady its forecast for world oil demand

growth in 2011 and maintained its view that oil supplies
are adequate despite the loss of Libyan supplies as its
members and rivals pump more crude.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency lowered its

forecast this week for 2011 oil demand growth by
190,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day.

High prices are holding back oil demand growth and

threaten economic recovery in the West, the Interna-
tional Energy Agency said in a report.

CME Group raised margin requirements on several en-

ergy products, and announced a second hike for gasoline
futures effective Thursday, May 12.

International Energy Agency said tht oil demand in North

America would fall by 194,000 barrels per day in 2011, a
downward revision by 220,000 b/d.

Exchange Data

Exchange Open High Low Close Volume OI % Change.

ICEX Crude May’11 4510.00 4674.00 4295.00 4429.00 11675 87 -0.63

NYMEX Crude June’11 98.11 104.60 95.25 99.65 978223 1663495 2.51

NYMEX Nat. Gas

4.25 4.30 4.11 4.25 289430 966158 0.26
June’11

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 Weekly Metals, Mineral & Energy Update— 14 May 2011

WEEKLY RECAP - METALS

ICEX copper June’11 settled 0.51% higher at Rs.400.70/

kg this week.

COMEX copper July’11 settled 0.20% higher at $3.98/

pound this week.

Europe's No.2 copper producer, KGHM, expects copper

prices to average $8,000-$9,000 per ton this year, its
chief executive said.

China this week told banks for the fifth time this year to
set aside more cash to restrain prices. Inflation in the
country held above 5 percent in April, exceeding the gov-
ernment’s annual target, and imports of copper into
China fell 14 percent last month from March, figures
showed this week.

German’s industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted

0.7% in March from February, and by 11.2% compared
with a year earlier. Manufacturing output also climbed by
0.5% month-to-month, following a 1.8% increase in Feb-
ruary.

U.S. data showed the economy struggled to gain mo-

mentum early in the second quarter, with retail sales
posting their smallest rise in nine months in April and
wholesale prices increased more than earlier estimates.

The euro-zone's gross domestic product expanded at a

rate of 2.5% in the first quarter compared to the same
time last year.

IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was arrested in New

York on Sunday on sexual assault charges. Financial com-
munity expects it would delay to come to a resolution
regarding Greece’s debt problem.

Copper Exchange Data (Weekly)

Exchange Open High Low Close Volume OI % Ch.

ICEX Copper Jun’ 11 404.25 407.70 386.95 400.70 12333 94 0.51

ICEX Lead May’ 11 104.70 107.00 101.5 103.9 720 14 -0.57

COMEX Copper July’

3.99 4.08 3.90 3.98 54698 116979 0.20
11

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 Weekly Metals, Mineral & Energy Update— 14 May 2011

WEEKLY RECAP - MINERAL

News at a Glance Market Summary on Iron Ore

There are reports that India’s NMDC is likely to cut the ICEX iron ore May’11 contract settled lower by 0.30%
prices of iron ore fines by about 15 percent after export to Rs.8036/dmt this week.
taxes rose and supply deals with Japan and South Korea
Shanghai Rebar May’11 contract settled lower by yuan
ended. (Quoted in www.bloomberg.com)
59 to yuan4980/ton on Friday.
Madras High court has ordered Chennai port to stop
The Steel Index benchmark reference price for 62% Fe
handling polluting iron ore from October. (Quoted in
settled 1.12% lower to $178.7/dmt this week. 58% Fe
www.hindubusinessline.com)
settled 3.20% lower to $156.4/dmt.
South Korea wealth fund and one of the largest pensions
fund in Canada will jointly invest $100 million in Brazil
based Manabi iron ore exploration project. (Quoted in
www.wsj.com)

Indian Commodity Exchange - Weekly

Exchange Open High Low Close Volume OI % Ch.

Iron Ore May ’11 (100 dmt) 7881.00 8179.00 7862.00 8020.00 316 4 -0.30

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 Weekly Metals, Mineral & Energy Update— 14 May 2011

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Week’s Economic Indicator

Date Time Data Consensus Prior Effect

16-5-2011 5:20am Japanese Core Machinery Orders m/m -9.7% -2.3% Medium
5:20am Japanese CGPI y/y 2.1% 2% Low
10:30am Japanese Household Confidence 37.3 38.3 Low
2:30pm European CPI y/y 2.8% 2.8% Medium
2:30pm European Core CPI y/y 1.5% 1.3% Medium
2:30pm European Trade Balance 1.7B -2.4B Low
6:00pm US Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.7 21.7 Medium
6:30pm US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks High
6:30pm US TIC Long-Term Purchases 57.7B 26.9B High
7:30pm US NAHB Housing Market Index 17 16 Low
Tentative Treasury Currency Report
17-5-2011 All day European ECOFIN Meetings Medium
2:30pm German ZEW Economic Sentiment 4.7 7.6 High
2:30pm European ZEW Economic Sentiment 17.9 19.7 Medium
6:00pm US Building Permits 0.59M 0.59M High
6:00pm US Housing Starts 0.58M 0.55M Medium
6:45pm US Capacity Utilization Rate 77.7% 77.4% Medium
6:45pm US Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.8% Medium
17-22nd US Mortgage Delinquencies 8.22% Medium
18-5-2011 5:20am Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -5.4% 0.8% Medium
8:00pm EIA Crude Oil Inventories 3.8M Medium
11:30pm FOMC Meeting Minutes High
19-5-2011 5:20am Japanese Prelim GDP q/q -0.5% -0.3% High
5:20am Japanese Prelim GDP Price Index y/y -1.9% -1.6% Medium
10.00am Japanese Revised Industrial Production m/m -15.1% -15.3% Low
6:00pm US Unemployment Claims 421K 434K High
7:30pm US Existing Home Sales 5.22M 5.10M High
7:30pm US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.3 18.5 High
7:30pm US CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% 0.4% Low
8:00pm EIA Natural Gas Storage 70B High
11:00pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks Medium
20-5-2011 Tentative Japanese Monetary Policy Statement High
Tentative Japanese Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10% High
10:00am Japanese All Industries Activity m/m -5.5% 0.7% Low
11:30am European German PPI m/m 0.6% 0.4% Medium
Tentative BOJ Press Conference High
1:30pm European Current Account -6.5% -7.2% Medium
7:30pm European Consumer Confidence -12 -12 Low

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 Weekly Metals, Mineral & Energy Update— 14 May 2011

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