40 40 Production and Operations Management
40 40 Production and Operations Management
1. Explain in brief the origins of Just in Time. Explain the different types of wastes that can be
eliminated using JIT.
Ans. Just in time were developed to minimize wastage across the organization. If a firm is
optimistic about the demand, then that firm increases their planned inventories. On the other hand
if the demand is weak when compared to the expectations, then that firm’s unplanned inventories
are high. That means companies don’t keep a lot of excess inventory, then manufacture a product
as an order comes in. It is management philosophy of continuous and forced problem solving.
1 Over production
Over production is to manufacture products before it is actually needed. If the demand for that
product decreases, the extra parts or products produced may not be useful or needed. Also
over production results in high storage costs and is also difficult to detect defects. So, over
productions is considered a waste.
2 Inventory.
Excess procurement or production builds up stock of materials which are not immediately use,
this locking space and fund carrying heavy cost.
3 Waiting time.
Waste of time happen when goods are not moving or being processed. The operator, the
machine or the part will either be not working or be worked upon. The duration is can be said to
be unproductive and may create more serious consequences.
4. Movement
The people, who work, do not make a study as to how the products on which they are making
are utilized and do not realize the purpose for which they are made. This lack of education will
lead to waste of resources. Finally, they end up in shortage of resources when needed.
6. Defective products.
The defective products leads to a tremendous loss to the company. This is because they use up
the same equipments, workmen and the time that would be used to make good products. Thus
defective products use up resources and result in losses.
7. Over Processing
Some steps like unnecessary processing or production do not add value to the final output. As a
results, it is waste of all the inputs that go into the process.
Q.2 What is value engineering or value analysis ? Elucidate five companies which have
Ans. Value of engineering (VE) or value Analysis is a methodology by which we try to find
substitutes for a product or an operation.
The concept of value engineering originated during the second world war. It was developed by the
General Electric corporations (GEC). Value Engineering has gained popularity due to its potential for
gaining high Returns on investment (ROI). This methodology is widely used in business re-
engineering, government projects, construction, assembling and machining processes, health care
and environmental engineering, and many others. Value engineering process calls for a deep study
of a product and the purpose for which it is used, such as the raw materials used; the processes of
transformation; the equipment needed, and many others. It is also questions whether what is
being used is the most appropriate and economical. This applies to all aspects of the products.
Initially, the practioners were the people in charge of purchasing who tried to locate
substitute material which would be equally good, if not better, at a lower price. This
the first and basic approach to value engineering. A the concept percolated to the
manufacturing departments, engineers applied the same principles and found that,
they could use alternate materials, which were cheaper giving the same
performance. It was also fund that dimensions and tolerance could be altered
without affecting the performance of the part or the product. The investigations took
them on the path of eliminating some operations. The focus was on the value of each
bit materials, each operation. This approach led to the design stage.
2. ASHOK LEYLAND.
3. TVS.
T.V. Sundaram Lyenger (TVS) Limited is one of the largest automobile distribution
companies in India.
During the mid 1940 to 1960s, TVS based in Madurai was ranked as the best bus
transportation system in India. It could manage to run the fleets for about 96% of the
time.
TVS used the VE approach to restore the mobility of buses that had broken down.
They stocked their garage with some critical assemblies of a bus. Whenever, a part or
an assembly failed of a bus, they replaced it immediately with a new one, thus
restoring mobility within a couple of hours.
When compared to the traditional method, this approach has gained much more
benefits to the company, it helped to save time, reduce cost, efficient, quicker, and
competitive.
4. MODI XEROX.
Modi Xerox designed the VE-d low cost copier 1025 ST, which uses a single tray. The
advantage of new design is that it is easy to operate and the cost is also very low.
5. TITAN
5. WAITING LINE MODELS: Queues are formed when the rate of services is at a
variance with the rate of arrival. They are formed when the rate of production
is less at particular points compared to the previous one. Sometimes we see
multiple service points and a single queue are formed for feeding them.
Number of items which includes the following is studied with some special
techniques.
People to be serviced.
Rate of service
Type of queue discipline that is intended to be followed.
Policy of priority
Tolerable amounts of waitin
Others.
6. SIMULATION MODELS: Simulation models are used when we will not be able
to formulate mathematical model. So, we develop a model which resembles a
real life situation. Based on this pattern, we predict and plan our procurement,
production, delivery and other actions.
7. PERT (PROJECT EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE) AND CPM (CRTICAL
PATH METHOD) MODELS: When projects are undertaken with a number of
activities, some happens in sequence, with gaps of weeks or months and some
happens simultaneously. It is important to estimate the time required for
completion of the project. A lot of coordination is needed while supplying the
resources. It is also equally important to identify the bottlenecks and
smoothen resources so that time schedules are maintained. Delayed
completion may entail penalties. In this model, we adopt special methods to
make the system.
Work study Motions study.
We can say that work study is being Method study is on studying the method
conducted when analysis of work currently being used and developing a new
methods is conducted during the period method of performing the task in a better
when a job is done on a machine or way.
equipment.
The study helps in designing the Operation flow charts, motion charts, flow
optimum work method and process charts, which are the elements of the
standardization of the work method. task are studied to find the purpose of each
activity, the sequences in which they are
done, and the effect of these on the work.
The study enables the methods The study may help in changing some of
engineer to search for better methods them and even eliminate some of them to
for higher utilization of man and effect improvements.
machine and accomplishment of higher
productivity.
The study gives an opportunity to the The new method should result in saving of
workmen to learn the process of study time, reduced motions and simpler activities.
thus making them able to offer
suggestions for improved methods.
Q.4 What is rapid prototyping ? Explain the difference between Automated flow line and
Automated assembly line with examples.
Ans. Prototyping is a process by which a new product is developed in small numbers.
Prototype do meet the specification of the components that enter a product and performance can
be measured on those. It helps in confirming the design and any shortcomings can be rectified at
low cost. If serious defects or problems arise during manufacturing, a thorough change in design or
even its replacement may be considered. Toa arrive at decisions and to make use of the
advantageous stated above, it is important that the prototypes are made within the shortest
possible time, Rapid prototyping facilities this.
Several Automated machines are linked by a All equipments are needed to in automated
transfer system. Assesmbly line
Handling machine have main role to move semi All equipments make role of making sub-assemblies
finished product to the next stage. put together and fitted.
Semi-finished products are the main core Here Sub-assemblies product are the core activites.
activities.
Here raw materials are achieving to get required Here intermediated products are achieving to get
shapes and acquire special properties. finished product.
The materials are needed to be moved, held, Here All parts or sub-assemblies are fitted to enables
rotated, fitted and positioned for completing the product to be in readiness to perform the
different operations. function it was designed to. This process is called
assembly.
Q.5 Explain Break even Analysis and centre of gravity methods. Explain product layout and
process layout with examples.
1. Investments made for land, plant and machinery resulting in interest and depreciation.
2. Recurring expenses, which are not proportional to the quantity of production.
3. Variable costs, which are directly proportional to the quantity produced.
For our calculations, we combine the first two costs together and call them fixed costs. We call
those costs that depend on the quantity of production as variable costs.
We compare the total costs for different locations on estimated amounts per annum and select
whichever locations costs the least. However we will have to consider the possible variations in
production levels during the foreseeable time spans and take decision.
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CENTRE OF GRAVITY METHOD.
Transportation costs, either for distribution of products or collection of materials from
different suppliers is the main criterion.
Production rates are high.
The volume and weights of materials that have to be moved are huge.
Time taken either to receive materials from suppliers or delivery to customers is critical.
It is better to locate the facility at such a place, which caters to the different points most optimally.
The vital factor is the load, that is, number of items, or the weights that need to be moved from the
central location to the existing or demanding point. We use this method when, both distance and
load have to be considered for optimality in terms of costs.
PRODUCT LAYOUT
Product layout is also called as production lines or assembly lines. They are designed and laid out in
such a way that only few products are capable of being manufactured or assembled. Materials flow
through the various facilities. These use special machines to perform specific operations to produce
only one product at one time. So, companies should set different set of machines for different
products. Workers perform a narrow range of activities to complete the operations on the product
as it moves in a flow line. The operation times, the sequence of movements and routing procedures
are highly standardized to meet production requirements which are synchronized with many such
products to complete finished goods to meets demands. Using special machines and implementing
standardization in operations have many advantages which are listed below:
Example:
Let us consider an examples of a stainless steel manufacturing industry, in which the operations
turning, milling and drilling happen in a sequence. Testing is performed in each process to assure
the quality. The items are then sent to the assembly block. The items that arrive for assembly are
either bought out items or made item components from elsewhere in the plant. The final product
inspection is made and send to the packing dispatch.
PROCESS LAYOUT
For process layouts, the relative arrangement of departments and machines is the critical
Process layout design determines the best relative locations of functional work centres. Work
centres that interact frequently, with movement of material or people, should be located close
together, whereas those that have little interaction can be spatially separated. One approach of
3. Identify and estimate the amount of material and personnel flow among work centres
5. Evaluate and modify the layout, incorporating details such as machine orientation, storage
The first step in the layout process is to identify and describe each work centre. The
description should include the primary function of the work centre; drilling, new accounts, or
cashier; its major components, including equipment and number of personnel; and the space
required. The description should also include any special access needs (such as access to running
water or an elevator) or restrictions (it must be in a clean area or away from heat).
For a new facility, the spatial configuration of the work centres and the size and shape of
the facility are determined simultaneously. Determining the locations of special structures and
fixtures such as elevators, loading docks, and bathrooms becomes part of the layout process.
However, in many cases the facility and its characteristics are a given. In these situations, it is
necessary to obtain a drawing of the facility being designed, including shape and dimensions,
locations of fixed structures, and restrictions on activities, such as weight limits on certain parts
of a floor or foundation.
Fig 2.11 Relationship flow diagram
To minimize transport times and material-handling costs, we would like to place close
together those work centres that have the greatest flow of materials and people between them.
To estimate the flows between work centres, it is helpful to begin by drawing relationship diagram
as shown in Fig. 2.11.
For manufacturing systems, material flows and transporting costs can be estimated reasonably
well using historical routings for products or through work sampling techniques applied to workers
or jobs. The flow of people, especially in a service system such as a business office or a
university administration building, may be difficult to estimate precisely, although work sampling
can be used to obtain rough estimates.
The amounts and/or costs of flows among work centres are usually presented using a flow
matrix, a flow-cost matrix, or a proximity chart.
Q.6 Explain Juran’s Quality Trilogy and Crosby’s absolutes of quality. List out the pillars of total
productive maintenance.
Juran uses his famous universal Breakthrough Sequence to implement quality programmes. The
universal break through sequences are ;
1. Failure costs –internal: These are cost of rejections, repairs in terms of materials, labour,
machine time and loss of morale.
2. Failure costs-External: These are cost of replacement, on-site rework including spare parts
and expenses of the personnel, warranty costs and loss of goodwill.
3. Appraisal costs: These are cost inspection, including maintenance of records, certification,
segregation costs, and others.
4. Prevention costs: Prevention cost is the sequence of three sets of activities, Quality
planning, Quality control, and Quality improvement, forming the triology to achieve TOTAL
QUALITY MANAGEMENT.
Quality is the result of good planning consideration the needs of both internal and external
customers and develops processes to meet them. The processes are also planned to meet
them.
Quality is built into the system of manufacture, inputs and processes that are on stream like
raw material, spare parts, labour, machine maintenance, training, warehousing, inspection
procedures, packaging, and other. All these have to follow standards and control exercises
to make sure that mistake do not occur often and that if mistakes do occur then they are
corrected at the source.
Quality improvement measures are essential to keep the quality culture alive. Newer
methods will be found, some operations can be eliminated, improved technology available.
In short, as experience is gained things can always be done better. IT is for the management
to take the initiative an encourage the employees to be on lookout for opportunities for
improvement.
Crosby also has given 14 points similar to those of Deming. His approach emphasizes on
measurement of quality, increasing awareness, corrective action, error cause removal and
continuously reinforcing the system, so that advantages derived are not lost over time. He opined
that the quality management regimen should improve that overall health of the organization and
prescribed a vaccine. The ingredients are.
1. Integrity: Honesty and commitment help in producing everything right first time, every
time.
2. Communication: Flow of information between departments, suppliers, customers helps in
indentifying opportunities.
3. Systems and operations: These should bring in a quality environment so that nobody is
comfortable with anything less than the best.
TPM puts the responsibility of maintenance where it belongs to and the operator who uses the equipment.
It is a companywide activity which involves all the people. The main thrust is eliminating all break downs.
The focus is on the operating personnel because they would know about malfunctioning earlier and more
than anybody else. They work on the machine and are aware of the slightest variations that occur and thus
should be able to plan to remove the cause before it becomes serious. So every planned maintenance
activity reduces the probability of a breakdown, Ownership of the operation and machine increases the
commitment of the workmen. Autonomy is the starting point for learning and excellence. The worker can
suggest better ways of improving quality, productivity, and design. This help in continuous improvement,
Team work and participation improves the quality culture. The principles of 5S- the housekeeping activities
which improve efficiency at workplace is considered a measurable standard to aid the implementation at
TPM even in the office rooms.
(Book ID: B1133)
Set- 2 (60 Marks)
Logical process modeling is the representation of putting together all the activities of
business process in details and making a representation of them.
The initial data collected need to be arrange in a logical manner so that, links are
made between nodes for making for the workflow smooth. The steps to be followed
to make the work smoother are given below:
Some of these activities may occur in a sequential order whereas, some of them run
parallel. There may even be circular paths, like re-work loops. Complexities arise
when the processes activities are not connected together.
Logical processes model consists of only the business activities and shows the
connectivity among them. The process model is a representation of the business
activities different from the technology dependent ones. Thus, we have a model that
is singularly structured only for business activities. Computer programmes are also
present in the total system. This allows the business oriented executives to be in
control of the inputs, processes and outputs. The logical process model improves,
control on the access to data. It also indentifies, who is in possession of data at
different nodes in the dataflow network that has been structured.
Physical process modeling is concerned with the actual design of data base meeting
the requirement of the business.
Physical modeling deals with the conversion of the logical model into a relation
model. Object gets defined at the schema level. The objects here are tables created
on the basis of entities and attributes. A database is defined for the business. All the
information is put together to make the database software specific. This means that
the objects during physical modeling vary on the database software being used. The
outcomes are server model diagrams showing tables and relationships with a
database.
The ingredients that might be used in a business process can be briefly outlined as
shown below.
The entire process of a project may be considered to be made up on number of sub process placed
in different stage called the work breakdown structure (WBS).
WBS is the technique to analysis the content of work and cost by breaking it down into its
component parts. Projects key stages from the highest level of the WBS, which is then used to show
the details at the lower levels of the project. Each key stage comprises many task identified at the
start of planning and later this list will have to be validated.
WBS is produced by indentifying the key elements, breaking each elements down into component
parts and continuing to breakdown until manageable work packages have indentified. These can
then be allocated to the appropriate person. The WBS does not shown dependencies other than a
grouping under the key stages. It is not time based- there is no timescale on the drawing.
A Work Breakdown Structure is a results-oriented family tree that captures all the work of a project
in an organized way. It is often portrayed graphically as a hierarchical tree, however, it can also be a
tabular list of "element" categories and tasks or the indented task list that appears in your Gantt chart
schedule. As a very simple example, Figure 1 shows a WBS for a hypothetical banquet.
EXAMPLE 1.
EXAMPLE -2
Q.3 TAKE AND EXAMPLE OF ANY PRODUCT OR PROJECT AND EXPLAIN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
LIFE CYCLE.
1. ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION PHASE: Analysis and evaluation phase is the initial phase of
any project. In this phase, information is collected from the customer pertaining to the
project. From the collected information, the requirements of the project are analyzed.
According to the customer requirement, the entire project is planned in a strategic manner.
The project manager conducts the analysis of the problem and submits a detailed report to
the top management.
2. MARKETING PHASE: A project proposal is prepared by a group of people including the
project manager. This proposal has to contain the strategic adopted to market the product
to the customer.
3. DESIGN PHASE: Design phase involves the study of inputs and outputs of the various project
stages.
a. Inputs received consist of project feasibility study, preliminary project evaluation
details, project proposal, and customer interviews.
b. Outputs produced consist of system design specifications, functional specifications
of the project, design specifications of the project and project plan.
4. EXECUTION PHASE In execution phase, the project manager and the term members work on
the project objectives as per the plan. At every stage during the execution, reports are
prepared.
5. Control- inspecting testing and delivery phase: During this phase, the project teams works
under the guidance of the project manager. The project manager has to ensure that the
team working under him is implementing the project designs accurately. The project has to
be tracked or monitored through its cost, manpower, and schedule. The project manager
has to ensure ways of managing the customer and marketing the future work, as well as
ways to perform quality control work
6. Closure and post completion analysis phase: Upon satisfactory completion and delivery of
the intended product or service the staff performance has to be evaluated. The project
manager has to document the lessons from the project. Reports on project feedback are to
be prepared and analyzed. A project execution report is to be prepared.
Example No.1
Example No.2
Example No.3
Q.4 EXPLAIN PMIS. WHAT IS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KEY SUCCESS FACTOR (KSF) AND KNOWLEDGE
(K) FACTOR ? EXPLAIN WITH EXAMPLES.
An information system is mainly aimed at providing the management at different levels with
information related to the system of the organization. It helps in maintaining discipline in the
system.
An information system dealing with project management tasks is the project management
information system. It helps in decision making in arriving at optimum allocation of resources. The
information system is based on a database of the organization. A project management information
system also hold schedule, scope changes, risk assessment and actual results.
Project manager and department To see each project schedule, priority and use of resources to
managers determine the most efficient use across the organization.
Project team members To see schedule, task lists and specification so that they know
what needs to be done next.
Usually, the team members, and not the systems administrators of the company, develop a good
PMIS. Organisations tend to allocate such responsibility by rotation among members with a well
designed and structured data entry and analytical format.
DIFFERENT BETWEEN KEY SUCCESS FACTORS (KSF) AND KNOWLEDGE (K) FACTOR
KSF will also provide an input to effective exit Knowledge (k) factor is an index of the extent to
strategy (EES) which one can manager today with yesterdays
knowledge content and also the extent to which
today’s knowledge will be used tomorrow.
Broad level of KSF should be available at the K factor would render the development process
conceptual stage and should be firmed up and more productive. The k factor of course,
detailed out during the planning stage. The undergoes correction through obsolescence, since
easiest way would be for the team to evaluate changes are now phenomenal.
each step for chances of success on a scale of
ten.
KSF should be available to the management, Leaders should recognize the knowledge potential
duly approved by the project manager before of the younger managers. Seniority is no more an
execution and control stages. automate scale for knowledge. It is equally
important for younger member not suppress their
knowledge potential from its application.
KSF rides normal consideration of time and Here time and cost does not matter, knowledge is
cost- at the levels encompassing client to be updated time to time to get better results.
expectation and management perception-time
and cost come into play as subservient to these
major goal.
In order to provide complete stability to As age and experience advance wisdom gains, but
fulfillment of goals, a project manager needs to knowledge should always be updated and utilized.
constantly evaluate the key success factor from It is the task of every team members to maximize
time to time. the k factor in all directions.
Make Connections
Turnkey businesses are designed to be ready to operate as soon as the buyer takes ownership.
Still, once they are sold, many businesses of this type run into problems when it comes to
resupplying, logistics and advertising. Because of this, many buyers are wary of turnkey
operations. One way to quell any "down the road" fears is to have this part of the infrastructure
accounted for. Make contact with businesses which help advertise businesses, ship products,
supply copy paper and any other stock the owner might require. Obtain discounts from as many
as possible
ABSTRACT
Most organisations are aware that in today’s highly competitive environment managing effectively
their knowledge is the only way to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage. One of the primary
areas to which knowledge management can be applied is the field of project management. An
increasing number of business sectors are adopting a project approach to carry out a range of
essential activities where valuable knowledge is gained. Knowledge from projects is an important
resource for further projects, because projects solve innovative and interdisciplinary tasks. However,
the majority of organisations do not manage the information gained through past projects. Failure to
transfer knowledge from past to future projects leads to wasted activity and unnecessary expenses by
‘reinventing the wheel’. Therefore, knowledge management is a critical success factor for many
projects.
The purpose of this Management Report is to approach knowledge management from the perspective
of project management. The main objective is to define how knowledge management can be
enhanced within a project by analysing suitable tools and relevant theories. The research is based on
the high-speed train project XY of the company XXX. This project is an important milestone for
XXX to improve its market position in Spain. The knowledge gained through the XY project will be
the key factor for the success of the further high-speed train projects.
The main finding of the case study highlights that there is a lack of formal knowledge management
activities at the project. The project team focuses mainly on personal interaction for transferring
knowledge and information technology is not used to its full potential. A hybrid approach to
knowledge management for project environments is suggested, taking into account technical as well
as human-specific aspects. The main recommendation is to determine a knowledge management
strategy, which preferably focuses on transferring tacit knowledge and gives information technology
a support function. Other areas of improvement are creating an open and constructive project culture,
including knowledge initiatives in reward systems and fostering documented project review sessions.
Finally, general conclusions are provided to answer the main research question of this management
report.
Q.5 EXPLAIN THE SEVEN PRINCIPAL OF SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT.TAKE AND EXAMPLE OF
ANY PRODUCT IN THE MARKET AND EXPAIN THE SECENRIO OF BULLEHIP EFFECT.
1. Group customer by needs: Effective SCM groups customers by distinct service needs,
regardless of industry and then tailors services to those particular segments.
2. Customize the logistics networks: In designing their logistic network, companies need to
focus on the service requirement and profit potential of the customer segments identified.
3. Listen to signals of market demand and plan accordingly: sales and operations planners
must monitor the entire supply chain to detect early warning signals of changing customers
demand and needs. This demand driven approach leads to more consistent forecast and
optimal resource allocation.
4. Differentiate the product closer to the customer: companies today no longer can afford to
stockpile inventory to compensate for possible forecasting errors. Instead, they need to
postpone product differentiation in the manufacturing process closer to actual consumer
demand. This strategy allows the supply chain to respond quickly and cost effectively to
changes in customer needs.
5. Strategically manage the sources of supply: By working closely with their key suppliers to
reduce the overall costs of owning materials and services, SCM maximizes profit margins
both for themselves and their suppliers.
6. Develop a supply chain wide technology strategy: As one of the cornerstones of successful
SCM, information technology must be able to support multiple levels of decisions making. It
also should afford a clear view and ability to measure the flow of products, services and
information.
7. Adopt channel spanning performance measures: Excellent supply chain performance
measurement systems do more than just monitor internal functions. They apply
performance criteria to every link in the supply chain-criteria that both service and financial
metrics.
An organization will always have up and downs. It is necessary that the managers of the
organization keep track of the market conditions and analyze the changes. They must take
decisions on the resources and make necessary changes within the organization to meet the
market demands. Failing to do so may results in wild swings in the orders. This may adversely
affect the functioning of the organization resulting in lack of coordination and trust among
supply chain members. The changes may affect the information and may led to demand
amplification in the supply chain. The Bullwhip effect is the uncertainty caused from distorted
information flowing up and down the supply chain. This has its affect on almost all the
industries, poses a risk to firms that experience large variations in demand, and also those firm
which are dependent on suppliers, distributors and retailers. A bullwhip effect may arise
because of:
Increase in the lead time of the project due to increase in variability of demand
Increase in the stocks to accommodate the increase demand arising out of complicated
demand models and forecasting techniques.
Reduced service levels in the organization.
Inefficient allocation of resources.
Increased transportation cost.
How to prevent it ?
involves a simple production/distribution system for a single brand of beer. There are three
players in the game including a retailer, a wholesaler, and a marketing director at the brewery.
A truck driver delivers beer once each week to the retailer. Then the retailer places an order with
the trucker who returns the order to the wholesaler. There's a four week lag between ordering and
The retailer and wholesaler do not communicate directly. The retailer sells hundreds of products
Week 1: Lover's Beer is not very popular but the retailer sells four cases per week on average.
Because the lead time is four weeks, the retailer attempts to keep twelve cases in the store by
ordering four cases each Monday when the trucker makes a delivery.
Week 2: The retailer's sales of Lover's beer doubles to eight cases, so on Monday, he orders 8
cases.
Week 3: The retailer sells 8 cases. The trucker delivers four cases. To be safe, the retailer decides
Week 4: The retailer learns from some of his younger customers that a music video appearing on
TV shows a group singing "I'll take on last sip of Lover's beer and run into the sun." The retailer
assumes that this explains the increased demand for the product. The trucker delivers 5 cases.
Week 5: The retailer sells the last case, but receives 7 cases. All 7 cases are sold by the end of
Week 6: Customers are looking for Lover's beer. Some put their names on a list to be called
when the beer comes in. The trucker delivers only 6 cases and all are sold by the weekend. The
Week 7: The trucker delivers 7 cases. The retailer is frustrated, but orders another 16 cases.
Week 8: The trucker delivers 5 cases and tells the retailer the beer is backlogged. The retailer is
The wholesaler distributes many brands of beer to a large number of retailers, but he is the only
distributor of Lover's beer. The wholesaler orders 4 truckloads from the brewery truck driver
each week and receives the beer after a 4 week lag. The wholesaler's policy is to keep 12
Week 6: By week 6 the wholesaler is out of Lover's beer and responds by ordering 30 truckloads
Week 8: By the 8th week most stores are ordering 3 or 4 times more Lovers' beer than their
regular amounts.
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Week 9: The wholesaler orders more Lover's beer, but gets only 6 truckloads.
Week 10: Only 8 truckloads are delivered, so the wholesaler orders 40.
Week 11: Only 12 truckloads are received, and there are 77 truckloads in backlog, so the
Week 12: The wholesaler orders 60 more truckloads of Lover's beer. It appears that the beer is
Weeks 14-15: The wholesaler receives larger shipments from the brewery, but orders from
Week 16: The trucker delivers 55 truckloads from the brewery, but the wholesaler gets zero
orders from retailers. So he stops ordering from the brewery.
Week 17: The wholesaler receives another 60 truckloads. Retailers order zero. The wholesaler
orders zero.
The brewery is small but has a reputation for producing high quality beer. Lover's beer is only
Week 6: New orders come in for 40 gross. It takes two weeks to brew the beer.
Week 14: Orders continue to come in and the brewery has not been able to catch up on the
backlogged orders. The marketing manager begins to wonder how much bonus he will get for
Week 16: The brewery catches up on the backlog, but orders begin to drop off.
Week 18: By week 18 there are no new orders for Lover's beer.
Week 19: The brewery has 100 gross of Lover's beer in stock, but no orders. So the brewery
At this point all the players blame each other for the excess inventory. Conversations with
wholesale and retailer reveal an inventory of 93 cases at the retailer and 220 truckloads at the
wholesaler. The marketing manager figures it will take the wholesaler a year to sell the Lover's
beer he has in stock. The retailers must be the problem. The retailer explains that demand
increased from 4 cases per week to 8 cases. The wholesaler and marketing manager think
demand mushroomed after that, and then fell off, but the retailer explains that didn't happen.
Demand stayed at 8 cases per week. Since he didn't get the beer he ordered, he kept ordering
more in an attempt to keep up with the demand. The marketing manager plans his resignation.
1. The structure of a system influences behavior. Systems cause their own problems, not external
forces or individual errors.
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3. People tend to focus on their own decisions and ignore how these decisions affect others.
4. The problems build gradually, so people don't realize there is a problem until it’s too late.
5. People don't learn from their experience because the effects of their actions occur somewhere