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TOURISM CARRYING CAPACITY ASSESSMENT FOR LEH TOWN OF LADAKH

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL
OF CURRENT RESEARCH
International Journal of Current Research
Vol. 8, Issue, 02, pp.26403-26410, February, 2016

ISSN: 0975-833X
RESEARCH ARTICLE
TOURISM CARRYING CAPACITY ASSESSMENT FOR LEH TOWN OF LADAKH REGION IN JAMMU
AND KASHMIR
*Sajad Nabi Dar, Shamim Ahmad Shah and Muzafar Ahmad Wani
Department of Geography and Regional Development University of Kashmir,
Kashmir, Jammu and Kashmir, India

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

The growth and expansion of tourism are a complex phenomenon and requires multiple pronged
Article History:
th
Received 27 November, 2015
approaches to study its various dimensions to consider sustainability limits. Leh district in the state of
Received in revised form Jammu and Kashmir, India is blessed with adventurous topography,
topography, rugged terrain, narrow valleys,
06th December, 2015 high altitude lakes, lofty mountain peaks, extensive glaciers, unique wildlife and traces of original
Accepted 23rd January, 2016 Buddhist culture are mostly confined to this region. In this entire vast area of wilderness only this
Published online 14th February, 2016 town has been equipped with all modern facilities therefore it used as the base camp by the ever ever-
increasing tourist flow. Over the year’s tourism activities in Leh town have been growing rapidly as a
Key words: result the local population of the town is outclassed by the number oof tourists most of year. The
magnitude of anthropogenic pressure goes beyond the natural coping capacity of the town because of
Tourism, huge amounts of ground water extraction and the generation of enormous quantity of solid and liquid
Carrying Capacity, waste. Currently the town does
does not have a proper drainage and solid waste management system
Limiting Factors. resulting in various social and environmental concerns which has threatened the whole tourism
industry and hence the livivelihood of the local residents is at stake. Therefore, appropriate pplanning
measures are needed to prevent further degradation of quality of tourism. The objective of this article
is to develop a methodology to assess the growth limits of tourist destinations by establishing various
mathematical formulae to calculate carrying
carrying capacity of several tourism activities. The results of this
study could be used as the preliminary benchmarks for sustainable tourism planning for the town.

Copyright © 2016 Sajad Nabi Dar et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
ribution License, which permits unrestricted
use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Citation: Sajad Nabi Dar, Shamim Ahmad Shah and Muzafar Ahmad Wani,
Wani 2016. “Tourism carrying capacity assessment for Leh town of Ladakh
region in Jammu and Kashmir”, International Journal of Current Research, 8, (02), 26403-26410.

INTRODUCTION 1960s in a natural parks inside

ide the United States. In 1980s, the
main focus was on analyzing the impact of tourism and on
In recent decades the growth and expansion of the tourism reducing the negative effects through the modification of
industry is a highly complex experience which needs a tourism policies (Gossling and Hall, 2005). When the concept
multiple descipilanary approach to study (Ritchie
Ritchie and Crouch, of sustainable development arose in relatio
relation to tourism in
2004).). There are many authors who described the evolution 1990s, this concept was related to the carrying capacity
and development of tourism. In this regard, Jafari (2001) because the idea of sustainability implies a limit and both
describes his fourur platforms based on advocacy, cautionary, concepts share the same difficulties so far as the formulation of
adoption and knowledge for understand tourism development. the ideas, practices, utility and diversity of types ((Saarinen,
Later on, two additional platforms (sustainability and ethics), 2006).). The problem has not arrived at because the prevailing
were included by Mac Beth (2005).. So far as the concept of economic ideology denied the existence of limits. Within the
sustainability is concerned, itt refers to a political concept concept of carrying capacity the study of limits has a long
which is a complex one and is associated with limited growth, tradition in geography, sociology, forest sciences, and biology
due to some implications on economic development the idea of (McCool and Lime, 2001)) for a particular destination it
the limit is usually avoided. The debate on the limits of growth provides specific answers, as reported by Cifuentes et al.
in tourism sector has started in 1930s (Saveriades,
Saveriades, 2000).
2000 In (1999) in Costa Rica’s Protected Natural Areas. There are
this direction the first experiments were conducted in the many definitions and opinions on carrying capacity ((Garrigos
Simón, Narangajavana, & Palacios
alacios Marques, 2004; Saarinen,
*Corresponding author: Sajad Nabi Dar, 2006).). Some definitions focus on biophysical and resource
Department of Geography and Regional Development University of thresholds while as others are more behavior oriented and
Kashmir, Jammu and Kashmir, India.
26404 Sajad Nabi Dar et al. Tourism carrying capacity assessment for Leh town of Ladakh region in Jammu and Kashmir

reflect the quality of the recreational experience, (Saveriades, The study focuses on an open mountainous area based on mass
2000). The World Tourism Organization defines carrying tourism. The Second one, this new way of assessing growth
capacity as “the maximum number of people that can visit a limits uses a flexible formula adaptable to other areas also,
tourist destination at the same time, without causing e.g., rural, natural, and urbanized depending on the impacts
destruction of physical, economic or social-cultural means and generated by the tourism and the objectives specified by
an unacceptable reduction in the quality of the satisfaction of destination managers. The investigation also presents an
visitors” (PAC/RAC, 2003). Thus, different types of carrying answer to Saarinen’s (2006) conceptual reflections and
capacity limits exist for different types of study. The threshold contributes to an experimental approach for proposed growth
established by residents and tourists is different, and both limits and formulates fundamental principles. The main aim of
differ from ecological limits. This was reason that for a magic the present study is to devise a methodology for the calculation
number which was not possible has obstructed the of the carrying capacity of the mountain areas especially for
development of the concept of carrying capacity for a long Leh town.
time, the proposal for the use of alternative tools, such as
visitor experience and resource protection and ‘limits of Study Area
acceptable change’ (McCool & Lime, 2001). There is an
interest in presenting theoretical and practical advances in Leh town is situated between 340850 to 341230 North
scientific research for example, the systematization that latitude and 773300 to 773630 East longitude and altitude
Saarinen (2006) applied to sustainability limits, proposing ranging from 3100 to 3600 meters above sea level. The town is
three approaches that have guided studies according to situated on the right bank of Indus River. The town has a
different epistemological perspectives and different ontological population of 30870 (Census 2011), covers an area of 9 Square
ideas. They are, carrying capacity based on resources Kilometers (Municipal Commute Leh 2011). The climate of
protection, developer’s perspective based on changes in Leh (Ladakh) is not only arid due to lack of precipitation, but it
tourism activities and the community based traditions of is very cold in winter, while as summers are generally warm.
sustainability focus on the selection of limits through the There is a huge diurnal range of temperature, which is an
participation of share capital. The aim of this article is to inherent characteristic of desert climate, the average monthly
develop and apply a methodology to assess the growth limits minimum temperature is about -15.39C in January, and while
of tourist destinations. This method is then applied to as the average maximum monthly temperature is 25.08C in
management and planning. There are two developments in this the month of August (DHAR 2012). The Leh town was
research, the first one is related to the fact that the application founded by Sengee Nemgyal in the 17th century (Janet Rizvi
is not restricted to either a nature reserve, which is protected by 1996). Leh was an important halt point of the historical Silk
the policy or to an island, which is geographically controlled at Road.
entry and exit points.
26405 International Journal of Current Research, Vol. 08, Issue, 02, pp.26403-26410, February, 2016

Growth of Domestic and Foreign Tourist flow

Source:-Department of Tourism Leh.

26406 Sajad Nabi Dar et al. Tourism carrying capacity assessment for Leh town of Ladakh region in Jammu and Kashmir

The tourism driven urbanization is a recent phenomenon in Bollywood film 3 Idiots, parts of which were shot in Ladakh.
Leh and hence fragile landscape is being deteriorated by In addition, the flash floods of August 2010 in Ladakh led to a
resultant economic activities. As such the town has become slight fall in tourist inflows in that year, but could also have
vulnerable to various risks like ground water depletion, played an important part in garnering an increased number of
shrinkage of agriculture land and food security on account of tourists the following year in support of the local economy.
shifts in land use. The above figure also depicts the downward trend in the
foreign tourist arrivals during 2008-10 which can be attributed
Tourism Potential of Leh to the 2008 global financial crisis. However, Indian tourist
arrivals continued to increase during this period as the Indian
Leh is a remote area of Jammu and Kashmir State; this area economy was still able to grow since it is not as depend on
remains cut off from the rest of the world for almost six global flows of trade and capital as most other countries.
months in a year. Leh is culturally rich, traditions and rituals
have remained intact to a large extent. This area is still in its Need and importance
originality in all spheres of life. This region is rich in its
architecture, their monasteries, housing patterns, food habits, Leh is emerging as one of the important tourist towns on the
and the dress and clothing patterns. Besides the natural famous silk route. Leh is a cold desert climate, which has not
landscapes, which are favourable for mountaineering and allowed to develop any economic activity properly; like
trekking, this cold desert area distinguishes itself from the rest agriculture, has not flourished except some parts of the town
of the region. These features attract tourists from the whole and adjoining areas which is the main economic activity of our
world to see the culture of this remote area which is still country. But the tourism is slowly developing there as a main
preserved in its original, to analyse how people in these areas economic activity. As the entire district is blessed with
having high altitude without sufficient water and food and cold adventurous topography, rugged terrain, narrow valleys, high
climatic conditions live. They come to observe how they altitude lakes, lofty mountain peaks; extensive glacier, unique
preserved their culture till now, what they eat, what they wear wildlife and traces of original Buddhist culture are now
and more importantly how they celebrate their festivals.There confined this region only. In this entire vast area of wilderness
are some famous tourist places like Leh Palace, Shanty Stupa, only Leh town has been equipped with all modern facilities
Central Asian Museum, Jamia Masjid, Old historic buildings, therefore it used as the base camp by the ever increasing tourist
Stupas, Monasteries, Forts, etc. Few of the tourist products are flow. Leh being now the hub of tourism has experienced a
outside the Leh town which includes important tourist phenomenal increase in tourist flow over the years. The total
destinations like monasteries, lakes, landscapes which add to number of tourists visited Ladakh in the year 1985 was 18911
the beauty of the whole region of Ladakh. The tourism which increased to 179491 in 2011. At the same time, the
products which are having the great tourism potential are number of tourist infrastructure including hotels, restaurants
mentioned below. and guest houses have also increased at a rapid pace. The
changing lifestyle of its dwellers, growth of tourist
Growth of Tourist Arrivals infrastructure has resulted in the exploitation of the
environment, social and cultural values. As a result, during
After opening for tourists, Tourism is rapidly transforming peak tourist season the local population of the town 30870 out
Ladakh region, the number of both international and national classed by the number of tourists. The magnitude of
visitors were rapidly rising every year, e.g. from 527 tourists in anthropogenic pressure goes beyond the natural coping
1974 to over 179491 tourists in 2011 with 55685 domestic capacity of the town because a huge amount of ground water
tourists and 22115 international tourists. Since only in 1990 extraction, quantity of solid and liquid is enormous. Currently
there has been a sharp decline in the tourist flow because of town does not a drainage system for laid waste nor has proper
disturbances in Kashmir valley. But from 1991 tourist flow to solid waste management as a result various social and
Leh shows an increasing trend. There are two major dips in environmental concerns have taken birth. Sustainable tourism
1999 because of Kargil war and in 2002 after 11 September development is a positive approach intended to reduce the
2001 and parliament attack. tension and friction created by the complex interaction
between various components of the tourism industry, viz
As the in the above figure shows from 2002 onwards the rate visitors, the environment and the communities. It is an
of increase in tourist inflows rises significantly, in case of both approach, which involves working for the long term viability
foreign as well as domestic tourists. The even steeper increase and quality of both natural and human resources (Gupta and
after 2006 is attributed to the large increases in the inflow of Dikshit, 2003). Sustainable tourism development can be
domestic tourists. This sudden increase in Indian tourists could thought of as meeting the needs of present tourist and host
be due to a number of factors like the increase in services regions, while protecting and enhancing opportunities for the
consumption by the rising Indian middle class, an increase in future (Brundland report, 1987). According to a Global 90s
the number of flights to Leh, the introduction of tour packages conference on sustainable development, the management of
from online travel companies such as Makemytrip.com and tourism should be such a way that it fulfils economic, social
perhaps most visibly due to the increasing number of Indian and aesthetic needs while maintaining cultural integrity,
films being shot in the different tourist locations in Ladakh. essential ecological process, biological diversity and life
The more than two-fold increase in tourist flows from a total supporting system. The present study is undertaken to develop
flow of 77,800 tourists in 2010 to 179,491 tourists in 2011 is a methodology to assess the growth limits of tourist
attributed by many to the extremely successful 2009 destinations by establishing various mathematical formulae to
26407 International Journal of Current Research, Vol. 08, Issue, 02, pp.26403-26410, February, 2016

calculate carrying capacity of several tourism activities TDSP = TD * Stay Average Days
quantitatively. The results of this study could be used as the =116449*3
preliminary benchmarks for sustainable tourism planning for =349347
the town.
Step 3. Average Number of Tourist Staying Per Day during
Objective Peak Season (αDSP):
This was evaluate by dividing the number of tourist stay days
The main aim of the present study is to devise a methodology per season by the number of days comprising the peak season
for the calculation of the carrying capacity of the Himalayan
tourist town of Leh. αDSP = Stay Average Days / Days Peak Season

MATERIALS AND METHODS =349347/120

=2911
The material and the data regarding the present work were
collected from both primary as well as secondary sources. The Step 4. Domestic Tourist Density (βDT): This was evaluated
primary data was collected during the field survey through a by dividing Average number of tourist staying per day during
questionnaire. Three questionnaires were devised for this peak season by area of tourist town in hectares excluding the
purpose, so that the clear picture of the tourism industry of the agriculture land, waste land and plantation area.
area regarding its carrying capacity will come out. The first
questionnaire was related to know the perception of the tourists βDT = αPS / Area
regarding the facilities available as well as the behaviour of the = 2911/294
host population towards them. The second questionnaire was = 10
related to know the perception of the local population towards
the tourism benefits well as the losses and the third one was c) Foreign Tourist Density (βFT): This was derived as
related to the infrastructure in which the researcher was trying follows:
to know about the facilities available for tourists at different
places and in different accommodation units. This whole data Step 1. Foreign Tourist Arrival (TF): Foreign tourist arrivals
was collected through 1500 questionnaires, 500 each category. during peak season (days) was determined
Apart from this the secondary data was collected from Foreign tourist arrival during peak season (days) = 28368
literature survey as well as from the different departments
working in the area like census, meteorological, transport, Step 2. Tourist Stay Days in Peak Seasons (TFSP): Foreign
tourism etc. the whole data set was initially analysed through tourist arrival was multiplied by average number of day of stay
the quantities techniques. The methodology used in the present for tourist at that tourist town.
study for the calculation of the carrying capacity of the Leh
town is basically a modification of the some of the formulae of TFSP = TF * Stay Average Days
Cifuentes and Ceballos – Lascurain used for the calculation of = 28368*5
the carrying capacity of the Phyang region of the Vietnam. = 141840
The tourism carrying capacity of the Leh town calculated
through the below mention mathematical formulas Step 3. Average Number of Tourist Staying per Day during
Peak Season (αFSP):
I. Calculation of User Density This was evaluating by dividing the number of tourist stay
days per season by the number of days comprising the peak
This was done by calculating the following: season.

a) Resident Population Density (βRP): This was deriving by αFSP = Stay Average Days / Days Peak Season
dividing the existing resident population of the tourist town by = 141840/120
its area in hectares excluding the agriculture land, wasteland = 1182
and plantation area. Step 4. Foreign Tourist Density: This was evaluated by
= 30870/294 dividing Average number of tourist staying per day during
= 105 P/ (ha.) peak season by area of tourist town in hectares excluding the
agriculture land, waste land and plantation area.
b) Domestic Tourist Density (βDT): This was derived as βFT = αPS / Area
follows: = 1182/294
= 4.0
Step 1. Domestic Tourist Arrival (TD): Domestic tourist
arrivals during peak season (days) was determined Aggregate Peak Tourist Density (APTD) = Domestic Tourist
Domestic tourist arrival during peak season (days) =116449 Density +Foreign
Tourist Density
Step 2. Domestic Tourist Stay Days in Peak Seasons APTD = βDT + βFT
(TDSP): Domestic tourist arrival was multiplied by average = 10 + 4
number of days of tourist stay at that tourist town. = 14
26408 Sajad Nabi Dar et al. Tourism carrying capacity assessment for Leh town of Ladakh region in Jammu and Kashmir

Global Tourism Organization defines the carrying capacity as their limiting power in the tourism activity, faculty of analysis
follows: a certain level of use by visitors in an area who can and because of enabling the measurement of the sustainability
accumulate in a certain time and place (Buckley, 1999). In level of a tourist destination. These are weather, infrastructure,
tourism development planning, for carrying capacity of two transport and waste management limiting factors. In which the
main elements are considered, including a moral element that condition of the infrastructure, transport and the waste
determines the quality of the experience achieved by the management were evaluated on the bases of the perception of
visitors or tourists, and biophysical element which determines the tourists as well as the local people
natural and physical quality of the recreational area
considering the manner of tourists? Accordingly, three kinds of Weather Limiting Factor: - During the year, the climate of
carrying capacity have been considered, including physical the area remains very cold, almost five months (from
carrying capacity (PCC), Real carrying capacity (RCC) and November- March) and limited the number of tourists.
Effective carrying capacity (ECC) in introducing the
methodology by International Union for Conservation of Almost no tourists, who were asked, want to visit this place
Nature and Natural Resources to estimate carrying capacity of during this period. Therefore, weather factor was taken as a
natural areas for tourism purposes (Worboys et al., 2005; limiting factor:
Zeng, 2007).
Lm: 150 days (five months Nov- March)
II. Physical Carrying Capacity (PCC) Tm: 365 days (one year)
Limiting factor for weather (Cf1):
Definition: PCC is the maximum number of tourists that can Cf1= 150/365= 0.41 (41.09%)
physically fit into or onto a specific area, over particular time:
The physical carrying capacity of Leh Town was determined Transport Limiting Factor: The questionnaire was used for
by the equation transport availability and quality assessment. The respondent
chosen for the survey was the tourists.
PCC = A*D*Rf
Unavailability of transport is a problem with the high altitude
Where PCC is the physical carrying capacity, A is the size of that is why transport is taking as a limiting factor.
the tourist area or the area available for recreation, D is tourist
density (tourists per hectare) and Rf is the rotation factor. The Cf2= Number of respondents satisfy with transport/ Total
total area available for tourist activities in Leh town is 294 respondents survey
hectares, while the tourist density was 14 persons per hectare. = 70/200= 0.35 (35%)
The rotation factor is calculated as the ratio of open hours for
recreation and the duration of the visit. For Leh town the value Accommodation Limiting Factor: The questionnaire was
of rotation factor is 1. Therefore the physical carrying capacity used for Accommodation availability and quality assessment.
of the town was calculated as 4116 persons per day. The respondent chosen for the survey was the tourists. The
accommodation sector of this area is not up to the standard of
III. Effective Real Carrying Capacity (ERCC) the developed nations. That is why the accommodation is taken
as a limiting factor.
Definition: ERCC is the maximum number of tourists that is
permitted by the local conditions and management capacity Cf3 = Number of respondents satisfy with the accommodation
without influencing the tourists’ demand: facility/

ERCC = PCC Cf1 cf2 cf3 …cfn) Total number of the respondent’s survey.
= 72/200- 0.36 (36%)
Where ERCC is the effective real carrying capacity, PCC is the
physical carrying capacity and Cf (corrective factors or Waste Management Limiting Factor
limiting factors) are factors, which have a negative impact on
tourism activities and assessed by limiting threshold, which The questionnaire was used for assessment of waste
used for identifying the impact level of a factor (%): management system. The respondent chosen for the survey
was the tourists.
ERCC= PCC x 100cf1/100 x 100cf2/100x……..x
100cfn/100 The Leh is a tourist town; with the increase in the number of
tourists, the production of waste also increases, which results
The correction factors is determined by using the Equation the accumulation of waste on the roadsides producing a foul
Cfx = 1- (Lmx/Tmx) smell unbearable for some of the tourists. Therefore, waste
management system taken as a limiting factor.
Where Cfx is the correction factor of variable x, Lmx is the
limiting magnitude of variable x and Tmx is the total Cf4 = Number of respondents satisfy with waste management
magnitude of variable x. Considering that tourism is dependent system/ Total number of respondents.
upon the physical, economic and social attributes, four
correction factors were considered for this study because of Cf4 = 88/200= 0.44 (44%)
26409 International Journal of Current Research, Vol. 08, Issue, 02, pp.26403-26410, February, 2016

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