DELPHI TECHNIQUE

SUBMITTED BY:
Chandan singh
Swati priya
 DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011

Contents
1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 2

1.1 HISTORY OF DELPHI............................................................................................................ 3

2. DEFINING DELPHI METHOD ........................................................................................... 4

2.1 KEY CHARACTERISTICS ...................................................................................................... 6

2.1.1 STRUCTURING OF INFORMATION FLOW ......................................... 6

2.1.2. REGULAR FEEDBACK .......................................................................... 7
2.1.3. ANONYMITY OF THE PARTICIPANTS .................................................. 7
3. DELPHI PROCESS ................................................................................................................. 7

3.1 PIVOTAL ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR ...................................................... 8

4. ORGANISATION OF DELPHI SURVEY .............................................................................. 9

5. APPLICATION OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE........................................................................... 9

6. DELPHI TECHNIQUE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT................................................... 10

7. EXAMPLE OF USING THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE ......................................................... 11

7.1 Research Plan ...................................................................................... 12

7.1 RESEARCH APPROACH – IDENTIFYING FACTORS AND STRATEGIES ...... 12
1st Interim Workshop ............................................................................... 14
2nd Interim Workshop .............................................................................. 15
8. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................... 15

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1. INTRODUCTION

The Delphi method is a structured process for consolidating the opinions of a

group of experts into a judgment on an issue, usually about the future. Its a
Technique may be defined as a unique method for arriving at a consensus
opinion by experts through a process of thesis, antithesis, and eventual
synthesis.

The Delphi method was originally developed in the 50s by the RAND
Corporation in Santa Monica, California.
 This approach consists of a survey conducted in two or more rounds.
 It provides the participants in the second round with the results of the
first so that they can alter the original assessments if they want to - or
stick to their previous opinion. The survey is done anonymously using a
questionnaire (the first Delphi’s were panels).
 It is commonly assumed that the method makes better use of group
interaction (Rowe et al. 1991, Häder/Häder 1995) whereby the
questionnaire is the medium of interaction (Martino 1983).
 The Delphi method is especially useful for long-range forecasting (20-30
years), as expert opinions are the only source of information available.
Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and therefore
the value of the process as such is also acknowledged.
 During the last ten years, the Delphi method was used more often
especially for national science and technology foresight.
Delphi studies are rather complex procedures and require some resources
depending on the breadth of the study planned.

Delphi studies are processes that include

 Preparation
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 Survey in two or more rounds

 some analyses and application (implementation) when the survey is
finished.
All three phases are important and are addressed during the course. For the
preparation phase and the implementation, some practical exercises in small
groups are conducted so that the participants gain a feeling for a Delphi
procedure.

1.1 HISTORY OF DELPHI

The Delphi method belongs to the subjective-intuitive methods of foresight.

Delphi was developed in the 1950's by the Rand Corporation, Santa Monica,
California, in operations research.
Delphi monastery was one of the very few spots on the earth where knowledge
was accumulated, ordered and preserved. The information came in from the
ambassadors through their queries and the answers were written down on
metal or stone plates, several of them found by archeologists. The temple was
the locus of knowledge, or, if we put it more mundanely, the Delphic oracle was
probably the largest database of the ancient world.

In figure 1-1, as an illumination of the 'genealogical tree' of the Delphi

technique, the major steps achieved in a chronological manner are listed.

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2. DEFINING DELPHI METHOD

The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting method which

relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more
rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the

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experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they
provided for their judgments

The Delphi method is based on structural surveys and makes use of the
intuitive available information of the participants, who are mainly experts.
Therefore, it de-livers qualitative as well as quantitative results and has
beneath its explorative, predictive even normative elements.
The Delphi method is a combination of qualitative and quantitative processes
that draws mainly upon the opinions of identified experts to develop theories
and projections for the future. A group of experts is drawn from several
disciplines and professions. A multiple-round survey system is administered to
this group over an extended period of time.

The goal of this method is to reach a consensus among the group by the end of
this multiple-round questionnaire process. The uniqueness of Delphi lies in its
reliability, given the variableness of human opinion, and in its ability to be
administered remotely and without direct participant interaction. It is best
used for a fairly simple assessment of new products and developments, but it
is one of the most complex methodologies available.

There is agreement that Delphi is an expert survey in two or more 'rounds' in

which in the second and later rounds of the survey the results of the previous
round are given as feedback. Therefore, the experts answer from the second
round on under the influence of their colleagues' opinions. Thus, the Delphi
method is a 'relatively strongly structured group communication process, in
which matters, on which naturally unsure and incomplete knowledge is
available, are judged upon by experts.

Wechsler characterises a 'Standard-Delphi-Method' in the following way: 'It is

a survey which is steered by a monitor group, comprises several rounds of a
group of experts, who are anonymous among each other and for whose
subjective-intuitive prognoses a consensus is aimed at.’

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This sounds a bit complicated but the essentials are:

 Delphi is an expert survey in two or more 'rounds'.
 Starting from the second round, a feedback is given (about the results of
previous rounds).
 The same experts assess the same matters once more - influenced by the
opinions of the other experts.

Characteristics of Delphi are therefore specified as ;

 Content of Delphi studies are always issues about which unsure
respectively incomplete knowledge exists. Otherwise there are more
efficient methods for decision making.
 Delphi are judgement processes with unsure aspects. The persons
involved in Delphi studies only give estimations.
 For the participation experts are to be involved who on the basis of their
knowledge and experience are able to assess in a competent way.
During the rounds, they have the opportunity to gather new
information.
 Especially the psychological process in connection with communication
and less in the sense of mathematical models have to be stressed.
 Delphi tries to make use of self-fulfilling,

2.1 KEY CHARACTERISTICS

2.1.1 STRUCTURING OF INFORMATION FLOW

The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers
to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director
controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information

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and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-
face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.

2.1.2. REGULAR FEEDBACK

Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on

the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their
earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick
to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to group leader, the
Delphi method prevents it.

2.1.3. ANONYMITY OF THE PARTICIPANTS

Usually all participants maintain anonymity. Their identity is not revealed even
after the completion of the final report. This stops them from dominating
others in the process using their authority or personality, frees them to some
extent from their personal biases, minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo
effect", allows them to freely express their opinions, encourages open critique
and admitting errors by revising earlier judgments

3. DELPHI PROCESS

There are certainly different possibilities to organise a Delphi process. Before

starting, you should answer the following questions:
 What is my objective?
 How many resources (manpower, money...) do I have?
 Is Delphi the right choice?

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 How can I formulate the statements?

 What are my questions?
The essential steps in a traditional anonymous Delphi study are as follows:

1. Articulate a problem.
2. Ask participants to provide potential solutions through a series of
carefully designed questionnaires
3. Participants complete the first questionnaire anonymously and
independently.
4. The results of the first questionnaire are tabulated, transcribed,
reproduced, and forwarded to each participant.
5. After reviewing, members submit new solutions.
6. They may make new estimates, often based on a 50-50 probability, as to
whether each breakthrough will occur earlier or later than predicted by
the other participants.
7. The submission of new solutions based on reiterations of the
questionnaire process is repeated until the participants reach a
consensus.

3.1 PIVOTAL ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR

It is the responsibility of the facilitator to distribute the questionnaires, collect

the responses, study the individual reports to ascertain the areas of
commonality and the areas of divergence. Wherever consensus is missing, the
facilitator initiates the process of thesis and antithesis, as explained earlier and
strives to create a synthesis for final acceptance by all.

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4. ORGANISATION OF DELPHI SURVEY

The first step is to found a steering committee (if you need one) and a
management team with sufficient capacities for the process. Then expert
panels to prepare and formulate the statements are helpful unless it is decided
to let that be done by the management team.
The whole procedure has to be fixed in advance The last organisational point is
the interface with the financing organisation if this is different from the
management team.

5. APPLICATION OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE

• Used in the field of science and technology for forecasting.

• Widely practiced for forecasting in business circles.

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• A tool in several areas including health, education, and project

management, and it is used to forecast economic trends.

• Widely accepted as a decision-making tool and has been used

successfully in many areas.

The Delphi method is mainly used when long-term issues have to be

assessed. As it is a procedure to identify statements (topics) that are
relevant for the future, it reduces the tacit and complex knowledge to a
single statement and makes it possible to judge upon.

6. DELPHI TECHNIQUE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

The Delphi Technique is an essential project management technique that

refers to an information gathering technique in which the opinions of those
whose opinions are most valuable, traditionally industry experts, is solicited,
with the ultimate hope and goal of attaining a consensus.

It is common to use expert opinion in project activities, such as while

estimating. Project manager can channel expert by using the Delphi Method,
that they reach a consensus. Then, you can make an informed decision. A key
point to note about the Delphi Technique is that while gathering thoughts, the
participants do not know who the other participants are. Hence, participants
are not influenced by others taking part in the process.

Typically, the polling of these industry experts is done on an anonymous basis,

in hopes of attaining opinions that are unfettered by fears or identifiability.
The experts are presented with a series of questions in regards to the project,
which is typically, but not always, presented to the expert by a third-party
facilitator, in hopes of eliciting new ideas regarding specific project points. The
responses from all experts are typically combined in the form of an overall

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summary, which is then provided to the experts for a review and for the
opportunity to make further comments.

This process typically results in consensus within a number of rounds, and this
technique typically helps minimize bias, and minimizes the possibility that any
one person can have too much influence on the outcomes.

Delphi method is used in:

 Risk Management: For identifying risks and quantifying risks.
 Time Management: For estimating stories or work activities.

The Delhi Method (Technique) is a recommended for Quality, safety, Risk and
Time Management.

7. EXAMPLE OF USING THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Is CNG a viable option for Delhi’s growing traffic and pollution

problem?

 Identify factors contributing to increase in pollution

o List issues, causes, procedures, or force that result in an increase
in pollution.
 Identify possible strategies and methods to reduce pollution
o Draft General plan or direction selected to accomplish pollution
reduction
 Assess possible impact of different strategies and methods on pollution
reduction and traffic problems based on (cost, quality, performance,
etc.)
 Develop guidelines and recommendations

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7.1 Research Plan

7.1 RESEARCH APPROACH – IDENTIFYING FACTORS AND STRATEGIES

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Delhi Method

Steps followed in Delphi Methods

 Proven research methodology
 Solicit subjective assessments
 Group of knowledgeable and experienced professionals
 Assess a series of questions - Conduct in rounds
 Analyze responses and request re-assessment over at least two rounds
 Complete when responses converge
 Final analysis and rank order

Method
Step 1: Determine and formulate the questions
Step 2: Select experts

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Step 3: Formulate the first questionnaire

Step 4: Analyse the answers to the first questionnaire
 Questionnaire sent to all participants
 First Round response: 29 Participants
 Second Round response: 24 Participants
 Group included consultants of the following divisions:
o environmentalists
o traffic officers
o drivers and commmuters
Step 5: Formulate subsequent questionnaires
Step 6: Summarize the results

FIRST ROUND.

Formal introduction

Thank you for participating in this questionnaire which is through internet and
verbal medium. The topic of the questionnaire is

“Assessment viability that is CNG a viable option for Delhi’s growing traffic and
pollution problem. Please fill the information below

(tick the appropriate boxes) and send it as a reply to our internet message”

1st Interim Workshop

Delphi Analysis Result Cost

Sl.No Methods to cut the pollution Votes Rank

1 Awareness of renewable sources 4 3

2 Effects of of cng over conventional fuel 5 2
3 Causes of pollution in Delhi 6 1

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Out of the survey it was found that maximum people knew about the causes of
pollution in Delhi and very few people had an idea about the sources of
renewable energy.

2nd Interim Workshop

Main factors to be considered for introducing CNG in delhi traffic
 fuelling centres infrastructure
 maintenances of new technology
 cost benefit analysis of the new facility

8. CONCLUSIONS

Based on the work shop the following conclusions were drawn

The panel had better idea about the causes of pollution and there is strong need of
some clean source of fuel but there are concerns of the infrastructure and technology
support which will be provided to the users.

The cost benefit analysis of cng as option came out to be the most efficient alternative
fuel.

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