India Alternative Research

Pair Trading Strategy : Short SBIN, Long HDFCBANK

Recommended Strategy November 21, 2008

10:26 AM IST

Short SBIN, Long HDFCBANK on a rupee-neutral basis.

SBIN
Currently, the November Futures of SBIN and HDFCBANK are trading at Rs
1,121.25 and Rs 821.90 respectively, giving a current price ratio Bloomberg SBIN=1
(SBIN/HDFCBANK) of 1.380 .
NSE SBIN

We recommend profit booking at the price ratio of 1.216 , keeping a stop Price 1,121.25
loss of 1.502 .
Mkt. Cap (Rs Cr) 70,678

The expected return at the target is 11.8%, computed on gross exposure. Beta 1.05

Lot Size 132

Over the past 1 month, SBIN has outperformed HDFCBANK as SBIN has
decreased by 20.0% as against a decrease of 22.9% in HDFCBANK. As a Lot Value (Rs) 148,223
result, the current price ratio of 1.380 is trading at 2.79 x standard
deviations above 20 day mean price ratio.

HDFCBANK

Price Ratio (SBIN / HDFCBANK) Bloomberg HDFCB=1

NSE HDFCBANK
1.52
Price 821.90
1.40
Mkt. Cap (Rs Cr) 34,439
1.28 Beta 1.05

1.16 Lot Size 200

Lot Value (Rs) 167,160

1.04
Jan-08

Feb-08

Jul-08
Nov-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Apr-08

Aug-08
May-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08
Jun-08

Source : Bloomberg, KRC Research CA Alok Agarwal

[email protected]
Key Statistics
℡ 91-22-6696 5555 (Ext.502)

Stock Ratio data Average Ratio Correlation

Current Ratio 1.380 20 days 1.193 20 days 84%

Expected Ratio 1.216 60 days 1.210 60 days 85%

% return 11.8% 250 days 1.252 250 days 93% www.krchoksey.com

KRC Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset
India Alternative Research

Past Performance

Closed Trades :

No. of Ret. Ret.

Entry Close
Days Start Date / Entry Close
Strategy Price Price On On Remarks
Trade Close Date Ratio Ratio
(Rs.) (Rs.) GE AD
Open

Long TCS
17-Oct-08 504.90 549.00
9 Short 1.785 1.972 10.5% 15.8% -
29-Oct-08 282.90 278.40
SATYAMCOMP

07-Oct-08 Long LT 1,016.15 817.30

10 0.674 0.736 9.1% 18.2% -
20-Oct-08 Short BHEL 1,507.55 1,110.00

14-Oct-08 Short INFOSYSTCH 1,387.55 1,268.00

4 8.613 7.752 10.0% 16.0% -
17-Oct-08 Long HCLTECH 161.10 163.50

13-Oct-08 Long RCOM 283.20 278.25 Stop Loss triggered on

1 3.890 3.637 -6.5% -11.1% first day itself after
14-Oct-08 Short IDEA 72.80 76.50 touching high of 4.060

06-Oct-08 Long RCOM 301.30 306.70 Profits booked on first

1 4.329 4.588 6.0% 12.0%
06-Oct-08 Short IDEA 69.60 66.85 day itself.

30-Sept-08 Short BHARTIARTL 758.10 758.50 1st target was revised as

3 2.351 2.244 4.8% 9.6% the market was very
3-Oct-08 Long RCOM 322.40 338.00 volatile.

20-Sept-08 Short DLF 429.60 383.35 1st target was revised as

5 3.407 3.117 6.0% 9.0% the market was very
26-Sept-08 Long UNITECH 126.10 119.25 volatile.

13-Sept-08 Short ACC 589.00 608.55 50% Profit booked on 19-

6 7.349 7.080 2.8% 5.7% Sept and bal. 50% closed
22-Sept-08 Long AMBUJACEM 80.15 85.95 out on 22-Sept

• GE = Gross Equity Exposure;

• AD = Amount Deployed for margins (taken at total margin of each stock and 10% safety margin)

Open Trades :

Ret. Ret.
No. of Days Start Date / Entry Entry Current Current
Strategy On On Remarks
Trade Open Close Date Price (Rs.) Ratio Price (Rs.) Ratio
GE AD

29-Oct-08 Long GRASIM 995.00 905.00

12 17.960 16.132 -10.2% -10.2% -
Open Short AMBUJACEM 55.55 56.☺0

• GE = Gross Equity Exposure;

• AD = Amount Deployed for margins (taken at total margin of each stock and 10% safety margin)

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India Alternative Research

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India Alternative Research

Rajiv Choksey Institutional Sales [email protected] +91-22-6653 5135

Anuj Choksey Institutional Sales [email protected] +91-22-6696 5500

Poran Das Institutional Sales [email protected] +91-22-6696 5548

Alok Agarwal Institutional Research [email protected] +91-22-6696 5502

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Disclaimer:

This publication has been prepared solely for information purpose and does not constitute a solicitation to
any person to buy or sell a security. While the information contained therein has been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable, investors are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments.
Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares & Sec Pvt Ltd., does not bear any responsibility for the authentication of the
information contained in the reports and consequently, is not liable for any decisions taken based on the
same. Further, KRC Research Reports only provide information updates and analysis. All opinion for buying
and selling are available to investors when they are registered clients of KRC Investment Advisory Services.
As per SEBI requirements it is stated that, Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares & Sec Pvt Ltd., and/or individuals
thereof may have positions in securities referred herein and may make purchases or sale thereof while this
report is in circulation.
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Registered Office:
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Phone: 91-22-6633 5000; Fax: 91-22-6633 8060.

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