Neural Networks in Load Forecasting: Binoy Dennis Lewis
Neural Networks in Load Forecasting: Binoy Dennis Lewis
DATE
Abstract
Similar to Weather Forecasting, Load Forecasting deals with the anticipation of the
load so that the generating stations can be better prepared to meet the demand. Load
forecasting is very essential to the operation of electricity companies. It enhances the
energy-efficient and reliable operation of a power system.
There is a growing tendency towards un-bundling the electricity system. This is
continually confronting the different sectors of the industry (generation,
transmission, and distribution) with increasing demand on planning management and
operations of the network. The operation and planning of a power utility company
requires an adequate model for electric power load forecasting. Load forecasting
plays a key role in helping an electric utility to make important decisions on power,
load switching, voltage control, network reconfiguration, and infrastructure
development. Methodologies of load forecasts can be divided into various categories
that include short-term forecasts, medium-term forecasts, and long-term forecasts.
The report highlights the importance of Load Forecasting and describes how
Artificial Neural Networks can be used for the purpose of Load Forecasting. The
report details the types of forecasting, the description of a neural network, the
selection of data required for the training of neural networks etc.
Contents
Back Ground
Importance of Load Forecasting
A Simple Neuron
Firing Rules
McCulloch and Pitts Model
Architecture of Neural Networks
Network Layers
Factors Affecting The Load
Types of Load Forecasting
Creating A Neural Network
Evaluating The Prediction Performance
Conclusion
Bibliography