Notes CH 6

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CHAPTER 6

what's the pro. of a value


what's the pro. of an interval

Probability of a customer
makes a purchase
with continuos prob. we can said that
instead we have to calculate
the probability of an interval

We calculate de area under the curve


2 points 100 or 200 pounds for that
interval
what's the probability of 1 value
2 dimensions leight vs weight
1 value it's just one dimension that’s why we
calculate weigh and leight

Continuos random variables: •Uniform probability distribution


•Normal probability distribution
•Exponential probability distribution

UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
how to calculate the prob. and how the probability of somenting happening for a continuos
ramdom variable is equal of the area under the curve
How long is a flight we are looking the interval from 120 to 130
Probabilities are equal likely.

f(x)= 1 = 1 = 0.05
140-120 20

0.05

We are calculating the density function first of the entire interval we use 140
Not probability yet
it’s probability density function

Ploted:
120 and 140 intrested overall
1/20 we calculate that part
Flat probabilities are all the same

120 to 130
Whats the area from 120 to 130
130 to 140 are equal 10 units or minutes
the area of 120 to 130 is half is .5
50% probability

Length: 120 to 130 / 10 units


Area: leght x with
Area: (130-120)X1/20=10
0.5 =(130-120)*(1/20)

this is a flat example


we can still calculate the prob.
and stimate de area

flirgh time is 120 to 140 minutes


is the entire rectnaglegle and is 1
sum to 1
sume of the prob. Is 1
are is equal 1

NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION


Normal probaility and bell shape, caracteristic avout it that describe the shape a

1 parametres the mean u and the standard deviation o


2 the highet point of the normal curve is the mean wich is also the median and the mode distrb.
3 the mean can be numerical, negative, zero, or positive
4 the ND is symetric curve normal shape
5 the Stand Deviation determines how flat the wide the normal curve is.
Larger values of the SD: wider and flatter curves showing more variability
6 Probabilities for the normal ramdom variable are given by areas under the normal curve
Mean of 10 Same Standar Deviation
Mean on 0 Stadar D of 10 has more variability
Mean of 20 Standar D of 5
Normal distribution has no skew

3 2 1

Analysie the probability of the data to fall under 1,2 or 3 standart deviations
Most data falls under 68.3% deviation of the man
95.4% has two standar deviations
99.7% of the data has 3 deviations above and below the mean

Mean of 0 and stadart deviation of 1


Iq of people and height of people will no be 0
standarinzing the information on that case
How far is my variable
x from the mean
In terms of stand. Deviation

In the previos videos the ramdon variables have been standarized


Some of the variables are not standarized first to get the prob. Distr.

Mean is 80 minutes
Standar deviation of 10 minutes
Normaly distrubutes is not standarized yet
60 minutes or less cos the exerices says 1 hour
We standarizes and we put in the z score
a. p(z<60) 0.02275 Probablity of completing of the exam

z= x-u = 60-80 -2 -2 standar deviations form the mean


o 10

60 is less of equal to 75
The probability of 1 particular values is 0
We calculate 60 we got to calculate 75
It will be all the area including the blue too
Substratc over the 0.308538 this is the probality of z is less of equal
from 0.5 to the start
b. z= x-u = 75-80 -.50 -0.5 standar deviations form the mean
o 10
0.02275 Probablity of completing of the exam
0.308538 this is the probality of z is less of equal
0.285787 =H292-H291 Blue part
All the area is 1
Substract all the area from 1 to get the remaining
c. p(>90)

z= x-u = 90-80 +1 1 One standar deviation above the mean


o 10

p( z> 1.00) 0.84134475 =NORM.S.DIST(1,1)


Substract 0.15865525 =1-G320 16% your not going to finish
the exam on time
9.51931524 9 or 10 student wontl finish the exam on
on the time

Learn how to calculate probabilities for normal probability distribution


Focus on standar disctirbution
2 formulas the 2nd is simplyfied

Understand the
Scenarions toplus in
in Excel

z will be less that or equal


z will be between two given v
z will be gretaer than or
equal to a given value

We are working with the standar normal deviation where the mean equals 0 and standar deviation is 1
One standar deviation above the mean
we want this area

We can calculate in two was we can see the


book and look for z and 1 and we got the
standar deviation

00 and, .01, .02 are the values to the righ


from the decimals

So the probability of z being less or equal to


1 is .8413

0.841345
for cumutale we want true because we want
because is all this

Mean is equal to 0 and the standar deviation is equal to 1

We want the are between thos two colums


those values
wew can calculate the probability from all
this are down
an then form here down and
and substract the area
from this area
probability of two variables
we take the larger value and calcualte
of the entire are and subtract from the
lower bound
1.25 0.894350226333
0.5 0.308537538726
diference 0.585812687607 so the prob. Of z from betwenn-.5 to 1.5 is 58.9% chaces

Z will be greater or = to in this case


Remember the are of the entire are is 1
we can find the probabilit up to here
The we can substracted from 1 and we cn be left over with this part

1.58 0.942946566762
substrac 1 0.057053433238

we are looking for the small, tinny area of the curve 1.58 standart deviation above the mean

Previous exam find prob given a z score


Oposite find z give probability

Standar normal
turn them to a z score
Look for all the prob.
number are increasing
is somewhere between values

answer will be 1.28

1.281551566
value from the table liitle bit difernt
close enoguh

EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Data look like that


time between arrivals for emergency room
load a truck
Ramdoms variables time between arrivals
Majors defect in a highways
provide description of leight of something
and the interval
time frames
how much time takes, leight time and
distance

Leight in those intervals time, how much does it takes to load a truck
Between 2 values substrac on for the other
from the 6 to 18
6 Minutes or less
6 and 1 lamndaover 15
0 is the low end p(x<6) 0.329679954 =EXPON.DIST(6,1/15,1)
Sweks nothing below 0 p(x<18) 0.698805788
0 to whavever Substract 0.369125834
No negative time or distance What type of distrubution we use, right function
low en values and high

Examples

What type of distrubution we have normal or exponential, calculate the probability


Loading time
No standar deviation mean and stand. Deviation are equal! Exponential prob. Distribution

Poisson: discrete ramdom variables


Exponential: is continous ramdom variables
Discrete Ramdno Variable:

Continuos Ramdom Variables

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