Machine Learning and Predictive Analytics Guidebook Ge Digital
Machine Learning and Predictive Analytics Guidebook Ge Digital
Engineers Are the Process Experts 3. Prediction – proactive actions improve quality, stability, and reliability
Process engineers have exceptional domain expertise to put 4. Simulation – what-if simulations accelerate accurate decisions at a lower cost
together process models – or Process Digital Twins – and 5. Optimization – optimal process setpoints improve throughput at acceptable quality by up to 10%
be able to interpret the models. This is the foundation for
improving competitive advantage and success with analytics.
Advanced analytics techniques are available to industrial
process engineers to align their domain expertise to these five
capabilities. To support the journey to machine learning and
analytics, GE Digital provides analytics technology training in the
form of self-serve detailed demo videos and application advice.
Additionally, while today’s software features enhanced ease of use and no-code implementation extensible
with Python, process engineers can still lean on product experts in combination with their own domain
expertise to mine data and leverage analytics to improve operations.
As an example, a leading food manufacturer was able to drive down customer complaints by more than 33%
through analytics. The manufacturer had struggled with weight control on a cube-shaped product. Make the
cubes too heavy, and the manufacturer was giving away product or producing watery product if the excess
weight was due to too much water. When the cubes were too light, the company was in regulatory jeopardy as
well as having trouble compacting the product into a stable cube shape.
The team used Proficy CSense to get a complete, correlated-by-lot and period picture of: ingredient specs,
process variables as run, and lab data – using the software to look for controllable factors that correlated to Figure 2: A leading food manufacturer was able to drive down customer
excess giveaway and then comparing periods with better weight control to the factors that were true then. complaints by more than 33% through analytics, using Proficy CSense.
Now, when the team sees how a raw material variance was successfully corrected for or a process disturbance
was overcome, that understanding is embedded into a new material spec, recipe or SOP. The smart analysis
with Proficy CSense yielded other benefits as well. Another example involves applying a smart predict project at a pulp
and paper manufacturer to predict Critical to Quality (CTQ) KPIs to
improve productivity and eliminate wastewater regulatory issues. As
a final example, a partner in mining delivered an Advanced Process
Control solution that increases throughput by 10% using smart
optimization technology.
What is a control loop?
Predict Product Quality Demo
A simple form of a process controller is the thermostat which maintains the temperature of a room according
to a given setpoint. It operates as a closed loop control device, trying to minimize the difference between the
room temperature and the desired one.
The industrial version is the PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) control loop - an essential part of every
process applications. PID loops have been around for a very long time. The first pneumatic instruments
featuring a proportional controller were developed by Taylor Instrument Companies at the beginning of the
20th century,
Watch Video Nowadays, loop controllers are available as standalone devices called single loop controllers, but the
most common version is a piece of code that resides in a PLC (Programmable Logic Controller) or a DCS
(Distributed Control System). It makes it easier to combine them to create advanced control diagrams
like cascade or feed-forward control, or split range required for the complex control of food and beverage,
chemical, oil and gas operations, and more.
Data is prepared, visualized, and rules-based, data driven process models can
be constructed. Using these models, root causes of process deviations are
identified, so processes can be optimized.
Predictive Analytics and Bad sensor data can mean lost product, downtime, compliance issues, and safety risks as well as a dirty data foundation for
digital transformation and continuous improvement programs. Industrial organizations need to have good data that can be
Sensor Health leveraged for operations, ad hoc analysis, and enterprise analytics.
Over time, sensors tend to deviate, impacting processes and operations. But, it’s time consuming – and impossible for most
Applications for predictive analytics are organizations – to manually determine if and why sensors are working or failing ahead of increasing risk.
endless, but a possible first step: engineers
Predictive Analytics and Sensors
can use analytics to monitor sensor health.
Engineers can employ a predictive analytics app such as Proficy Sensor Health to continuously monitor and analyze sensor
data. Users can target anomalies and minimize their potential impact. The analytics app provides an easy way to automate the
detection of bad sensors, where data is deviating from normal conditions.
When an anomaly is detected, the app can generate alarms to speed repairs, replacements, and recalibrations.
• Reduce downtime: Sensors are often used to provide indications that equipment is
running correctly. Incorrect readings can lead to equipment failure or damage. Early
detection of a sensor that is no longer giving accurate or consistent results can provide
advance warning that enables maintenance to replace or recalibrate the sensor before
the worst happens.
• Improve product quality and compliance: Sensors are often used for measuring
the results of a product or to ensure the ambient surroundings of a process are within
specification. If the sensors used to measure the product or environment are not
accurate or functioning correctly, it can lead to a product being out of specification.
Providing early warnings can reduce costs related product recalls or scrapped product.
• Ensure sensor data quality: Ensuring data quality in downstream analytics is part of
IoT-fueled improvements. If the intent is more advanced use of analytics for a process,
the need for ensuring data quality is critical.
Figure 6: Follow these strategy steps to good sensor health, leveraging predictive analytics
and machine learning.
How to Select the The following advice provides guidance for engineers.
Right Predictive 1 Make sure that “predictive analytics” isn’t buzz hiding risky, unproven software and
Analytics Solution
newbie “experts.”
For example, GE Digital has offered and implemented analytics solutions for more
than 15 years, serving industrial organizations around the world across a diverse set of
Every industrial organization knows that it’s industries.
imperative to move ahead at light speed with
predictive analytics. Consequently, new analytics Work with a partner that you can trust and know will support you for the long term.
Additionally, to support the full IoT value journey, look for capabilities from simple
calculations to predictive machine-learning models to real-time optimization and
advanced-control algorithms.
3 Be sure that the analytics package enables engineers to rapidly develop analytic
solutions – supporting improvements in production throughput, yield, quality, and
efficiency with significant margins.
Focus on analytics solutions developed with engineers – not just data scientists
From Small Projects to
5
– in mind.
Multi-Plant Optimization
With an analytics package that is accessible to engineers, teams can create
a Process Digital Twin for smarter operations. Visual drag-and-drop analytics
accelerate time to value and reduce dependence on data scientists and
programmers. Online demos enable rapid mastery of the software with easy- All automation and process engineers can and need to develop capabilities in
to-follow demonstrations and guided simulations. analytics and machine learning to remain competitive – both at an individual
professional level as well as to help their industrial organization – in our world of
As previously mentioned, a rapid development environment is critical. The best
digital transformation.
solutions provide rapid wizard-driven data mining for engineers for fast time-to-
insight, an easy visual drag-and-drop environment for subject matter experts Over time, engineers can go from small projects to pilots to multi-plant optimization
and engineers, and analytic solution templates without programming for simple with deep application of analytics. Engineers’ deep domain expertise provides a
calculations, data cleaning, maths, statistics, machine-learning models, real- foundation for modelling processes and developing the analytics that are game
time optimization, and advanced process control. changers in very specific applications. The combination of applied analytics
technology with those Process Twin models uncovers hidden opportunities for
improvement over-and-over again.
If you’re ready to optimize with analytics, GE Digital’s Proficy CSense turns raw data
into real-time value with a Process Digital Twin. The software uses AI and machine
learning to enable process engineers to combine data across industrial data sources
and rapidly identify problems, discover root causes, and automate actions to
continuously improve quality, utilization, productivity, and delivery of
production operations.
Advanced Analytics Case Studies
Global References for Proficy CSense
Major Food Company uses analytics to
reduce waste, improve quality, save on
raw materials, and optimize OEE
• Composite cans
• Cardboard in binders
The company’s environmental and societal commitments extend to Circular Economy and membership
in the UN Global Compact and its Nordic network.
Supporting its commitments to the environment and customers, Skjern Paper relies on innovation in its
production. Using the latest technologies and processes, the company provides high quality, flexibility and
just-in-time delivery to its customers – with delivery within 24 hours to most of Europe.
Recently, the plant manager at Skjern Paper looked to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)
to take production to the next level.
A Strategy to Leverage
AI in Production
“I’ve been looking at the area of AI for some time,” explains Skjern Paper’s
Technical Manager Erik Møller. “The industry has gained insight into improved
efficiency using AI and ML. We decided to make digitization and production
improvements through AI and ML part of our strategy.”
“Proficy CSense looked very user friendly,” Møller says. “I saw that it has the
capabilities that we needed; the price was right, and GE Digital was willing to provide
six hours of free consulting to help us get started. I was interested to see what
possible production issues we could identify when using the CSense product.”
Accelerating an Initial AI Project
Paper plants have hundreds of PID control loops that can
cause process variation and contribute to quality issues, if not
maintained in a healthy condition.
At the same time, while Skjern Paper has extensive quality assurance systems, the team does
not have many real-time ways to measure paper quality, making real-time quality control
difficult. Operators would check quality samples for a whole reel of paper at the end of a
production run, which involved a delayed lab analysis and the inability to adjust production
earlier in the process.
With a goal of avoiding or reducing 5% of quality rejects, especially when switching between
different products, Møller took advantage of free consulting with a GE Digital AI and ML expert to
jump start the analytics project.
In six hours of consulting, Skjern Paper captured insights from the Quality Prediction and Analysis: By examining data and applying the capabilities of CSense,
initial project. The team used Proficy CSense to: Paper Burst Strength Møller was able to discover possible causes of errors in the
production line. When producing paper, manufacturers add
1. Analyze: Used available data to discover causes of quality The team built a model in CSense around a quality parameter
dewatering chemicals. Møller discovered in the production
variation and rejects related to the Mullen burst strength of the paper. The Mullen
process that they are producing scrap due to adding too much
Burst Test is an industry standard to measure the paper’s
2. Monitor: Monitored the health of PID control loops to reduce chemical to the pulp mix.
physical strength and fiber bond. Skjern Paper has 20 data
process variation
points inputting to the CSense model, which predicts the burst “The model provides instant feedback on the differences in
3. Predict: Created a predictive model from available data to strength parameter. the level of the chemical,” Møller says. “It was the error in the
predict product quality in real time, enabling real-time quality production. When we had problems with dewatering, we would
Burst strength is a sensitive measurement, according to Møller,
control to reduce quality rejects add more chemical, but in this case, we can add less. We had
and a hard one to start with – however, even with that challenge,
thought that more chemical was better in the production, but we
the team saw early predictive success.
have new insight with CSense. Now, we can reduce the amount of
“We built a rather fine model and compared data from the model chemical used and reduce scrap – which decreases our costs. It is
with actual quality data later,” Møller explains. “It is not completely a great capability that gave us benefit straight away.”
aligned but showing good results. I’m quite pleased with it.”
Quick Insight and Results
As the company moves from these initial “Decreasing scrap and chemical usage and increasing
insights and into production, operators will production capacity through CSense are all ways that we are
helping the environment,” Møller explains. “Also, as we use
benefit from the real-time AI optimization.
CSense more, we can gather data from the supply chain and
This new insight from AI also supports the company’s optimize that way too. The capabilities are there, so it is just a
commitment to Circular Economy. matter of structuring the data and the model correctly.”
indicators in the SCADA system. We will be 3. Predict: It was shown how a predictive model can be
able to solve the reasons for issues by using created from available data and can be deployed to predict
product quality in real time, enabling real-time quality
the CSense visualization.”
control to reduce quality rejects and waste
Next Steps
While the initial project was about gaining some quick wins with a small model
and realizing the potential of AI, Møller has a plan for next steps.
These include:
Taking the insights already learned and driving the realized process changes into
production
• Tackling downtime – starting with locking the data related to downtime, doing
some manual manipulation of the data, then investigating how CSense can use
that data
• Training additional team members on using CSense and having them take over
from Møller’s foundation of work
Skjern Paper will also be implementing Proficy Operations Hub for main PID loop
monitoring and visualization.
Lastly, Møller foresees quick return on investment related to Proficy CSense. The team
has already gotten valuable insights so far in a short time.
“The more we use the Proficy CSense software,” Møller concludes, “the more ways we
keep finding to apply it. With AI, we can take production to the next level.”
Additional Examples
Exxaro and Wabtec Bump Up
Throughput at Coal Operation
10%
Increase in throughput
+98%
Utilization since commissioning
Watch Video
• Utilization higher than 98% (from commissioning to date) Marnus Olivier, Lead Project Manager and Advanced
Process Control/Data Science Engineer, Wabtec
• Proof of concept completed within 6-month
budgeted cycle Marnus Olivier is a Lead Project Manager and Advanced
Process Control/Data Science Engineer for Wabtec. In this
• APC solution is now solely utilized to control the GG5 plant, role, Marnus develops and implements advanced process
including start-up, shutdown, and steady state conditions control solutions for global mining companies – with
• Continued collaboration and continuous improvement outcomes ranging from stabilizing pH and temperature to
optimizing throughput and reducing waste. His expertise in
applying advanced process control, predictive models and
analytics spans 10 years at a diverse set of mines. Marnus
holds a MScEng in Chemical Engineering from University
of Stellenbosch along with certifications in data science in
machine learning.
Herning Vand gathers valuable
knowledge with their historical data
Based in Denmark, Herning Vand strives to efficiently deliver clean water to its customers
For years, Herning Vand has recorded and saved a large However, Proficy CSense shall, just like other simulation
amount of process data that is collected online from Herning tools, be used shrewdly and Herning Vand, together with
Vand’s 14 purification plants. process consultants from COWI who were responsible for
the initial consultancy, gained some valuable experience.
The data is logged with the clear intention to make Herning
COWI assists Novotek, a GE Digital partner, with process
Vand wiser and therefore better equipped to optimize
technical advice in connection with the use of
processes and the overall operations. However, for that
Proficy CSense.
to happen the large volumes of data must first be sorted,
analyzed, processed, evaluated and thoroughly compared so
that the important correlations and trends can be localized.
“A spreadsheet can be used to handle relatively large amounts of data, but it will not work when there
are too many parameters in play simultaneously. Therefore, last spring we invested in Proficy CSense
software solution, which is dedicated to finding and using mathematical correlations
of large amounts of data,” — Jan Ravn
Is there a connection?
“I see Proficy CSense as a closed box that is filled to the brim
with advanced calculation routines. We just feed the box
with the data we want it to compute and then we tell it what
parameters we want to observe.
— Jan Ravn
The first project is only the tip of the iceberg in relation to what we expect to
The Art of Definition achieve with Proficy CSense. We have an ambition that the tool will be used
The advice from Jan Ravn and John Sorensen is that you regularly for small and large projects, and therefore assist us to pick all the
have to be good at defining the amount of different data that
low-hanging fruit that would otherwise be missed during a busy working day,”
CSense works with and you get the best and fastest results if
you have relatively robust process knowledge.
The more data you put in means you get more answers out The findings are instantaneous and the application potential is great.”
at the other end. However, there is of course an upper limit,
— Jan Ravn
Positive changes in Rockwool
Proficy CSense's Troubleshooter advances Rockwool's capacity for process analysis
About Rockwell
It was his opinion that it was This can be used for training our operators before they
control the actual process. The “proof of concept” has been
exactly something like that, we
needed in our department.”
“There is no doubt that this software has Rockwool, A Global Leader
— Mogens Heine Larsen, a quick return on investment due to better
Section Manager, Process & Quality Service,
The Group is amongst the global leaders within
analysis and optimization of processes.”
Rockwool International A/S the insulation industry. Together with other
— Mogens Heine Larsen building-related products such as acoustic
Our division is called Process & Quality Service, POP, and ceilings, cladding boards and consultancy
consists of eleven highly experienced process experts, all
business, the Group ensures energy efficient
working for Rockwool International in Hedehusene. Half of
and fire-safe buildings with good acoustics and
them are based at our factories around Europe, travelling to completed and we will continue by presenting the idea
to the Directors who have the overall responsibility for a comfortable indoor climate. We create green
our various production lines in the world. The experts’ tasks
include helping our subsidiaries to solve problems with raw training in correlation to introduction of new factories and solutions for the horticultural industry, inventive
materials, processes and quality controls. Our consultants production lines. special fibres for industrial use, effective
are all highly experienced, almost as if they have a built-in insulation for the process industry and marine
Proficy CSense, which decreases the daily needs. However, Solutions: and offshore as well as noise and vibration
there is a need for new analytical tools that can provide Process optimization systems for modern infrastructure.
new insights and help to “adjust myths”. The tool should not
require deeper mathematical insights or to be difficult to use. Benefits: Better analysis
We have now found all that we look for in Proficy CSense's and optimization of
Troubleshooter, working with GE Digital partner, Novotek.
processes
The software has paid for itself
We have chosen a setting where Proficy CSense's Troubleshooter is on a server, accessible
to all consultants. However, only one user at a time can access the information, on the one
license available. Getting all data was challenging at first, but once we got everything in
order; it was easy to transfer between our systems. There is no doubt that the software has
paid for itself as we got better analysis and optimization from our processes.
Numerous Usages
With the use of Proficy CSense and Troubleshooter, you can visualize process problems and their causes
through modeling and simulation based on historical data. Proficy CSense becomes a digital Process Twin
facilitating process intelligence and optimization. It requires knowledge of the actual process, but no knowledge
about modeling, PCA etc., as this is not visible to the user.
Proficy CSense works with most historians on the market. With Proficy Troubleshooter you can: After the collected data is transformed into intelligent
Even data from relational databases and text files can be • Identify the likely causes of process problems and variations knowledge, it is used to find causes of process problems and
used. This gives the users more data to work with in the variations, and to take real time corrective actions.
multivariate analysis of historical data. • Identify process rules automatically based on historical data
Background
Impala Platinum’s Base Metals Refinery (BMR) in Springs, South Africa, receives
its raw material from the company’s mining, concentrating, smelting, and
converting facilities in nearby Rustenburg.
The BMR then removes as much of the base metals as possible and sends the
Platinum Group Metals (PGM) concentrate to the Precious Metals Refinery
(PMR) plant for further processing. The base metals are refined and sold
separately to maximize the conversion of raw material into revenue.
The Challenges
Poor pH control, complex,
multi-variable environment
Figure 1:
An overview of the process
With operators having to juggle all these variables, it was easy for temperature and pH
The processing of profiles, for example, to go beyond their set limits. This affected Impala’s ability to remove
as much as possible of the nickel from the solids, and it degraded the quality of all products
platinum is a complex downstream.
and costly affair. The Another important metal to remove (leach) in this process was iron, which had to be kept in
solution. To do that, active pH control needed to be applied to the autoclave. Iron should be
quality of the upstream discarded with the nickel solution otherwise it would contaminate the PGM solids, which
would impact downstream processes negatively and can even lead to costly reworking of
process known as the concentrate.
Base Metal Refining In addition, ore grade is gradually dropping and there are large variations in concentrations
in the matte supplied by the smelter. All of this contributes to an environment where
(BMR) can have serious manual process optimization is extremely challenging.
financial consequences
on the profitability
of the downstream
Precious Metals
Refining (PMR) process.
The Solution
Advanced pH controller provides real-time optimization
Impala Platinum turned to GE to help address its challenges. Over a period of six weeks, GE installed its
Proficy CSense solution, providing Impala BMR with control and optimization of its nickel-leaching process.
The software relieved operators of many decisions that were previously difficult given the complex, variable,
and real-time nature of the processes in their charge. “Some systems are just
too complex and have
too many variables
An advanced controller based on a hybrid of analytics technology and
fundamental principles was implemented to provide: for operators to run
• Stabilization of the pH to improve the leaching efficiency of iron and nickel. This provides a
optimally. That’s when
better quality of PGM concentrate for PMR and other processes. we need the help of
• On-line and real-time pH sampling. This provides the degree of control required to help predictive solutions
optimize the process. Another consideration was that pH cannot be measured inside the
autoclave, so a special sampling pot was designed by GE to address this sampling problem.
that can deal with the
• Simplification of the control approach by manipulating acid addition to compensate for
complexities of our
pulp density and product feed rate changes, as well as changes in pH measurements, while unique problems.”
taking into account that high-pressure acid leach has complex reaction dynamics.
— Tim Spandiel,
Impala BMR Manager
GE’s Proficy CSense solution helps to increase
process efficiency
Since the solution was implemented, it has greatly reduced the level of impurities in the product from the BMR, thus increasing
the concentration of PGMs. This ultimately leads to more platinum being extracted in the PMR downstream.
Sello Semosa, Impala’s BMR Manager, said that operators have embraced the solution, which has led to increased productivity.
She explained, “With Proficy CSense, I know I have a dedicated solution that is running real time with no disruptions. It has
freed up time for me and my staff, and time is important in terms of production.” Enabling effective information sharing across
the company, the solution automatically provides performance reports. This enables management to have a near real-time
view of the efficiency of the BMR nickel leaching process on which so many other processes rely.
“Although these
numbers may seem Solution results:
small, they are
extremely significant 40% 0.5% 3.3% 1.4%
improvement increase increase increase
to the financial in pH stability whereby in nickel extraction in iron extraction increase in the PGM
benefit of all our variation was reduced efficiency efficiency grade (concentration)
from 1.2 to 0.7
refining processes.”
— Tim Spandiel,
Impala BMR Manager Other benefits included:
• Reduction in pH peaks in the autoclave, which can lead to certain elements becoming very difficult to leach.
These elements go right through the process and end up contaminating the PGM solids, with the result that
the entire batch has to be recycled through a lengthy and costly processing pipeline.
plant
where the offgas from the furnaces and the emissions back into range. The GE process
converters is treated. experts also made some recommendations
during the investigation phase that improved
At this stage, Lonmin had some issues with
overall stability of the plant.
sulfur dioxide emissions, which exceeded
the allowable limit.
The process dynamics were complicated,
and there was large variability in the sulfur
dioxide concentrations in the feed that the
conventional controllers could not handle. This
caused large disturbances in the process, which
led to high emissions.
OPTIMAL
— Percy French
Automation Manager, Smelter, Lonmin
About GE
GE (NYSE: GE) is the world’s Digital Industrial Company, transforming industry with software-defined machines
and solutions that are connected, responsive and predictive. GE is organized around a global exchange of
knowledge, the “GE Store,” through which each business shares and accesses the same technology, markets,
structure and intellect. Each invention further fuels innovation and application across our industrial sectors.
With people, services, technology and scale, GE delivers better outcomes for customers by speaking the
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