Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

1a log10 c  1.89  0.0131t M1 1.1a 6th

c  101.890.0131t M1 1.1b Understand
exponential
c  77.6  0.970t (3 s.f.) A1 1.1b
models in
bivariate data.

(3)

1b b is the proportional rate at which the temperature changes per A1 3.2a 6th
minute.
Understand
exponential
models in
bivariate data.

(1)

1c Extrapolation/out of the range of the data. A1 2.4 4th

Understand the
concepts of
interpolation and
extrapolation.

(1)

(5 marks)

Notes

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Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

2a log n  0.7606  0.0635t M1 1.1a 6th

c  100.7606 0.0635t M1 1.1b Understand
exponential
c  5.76  1.16t (3 s.f.) A1 1.1b
models in
bivariate data.

(3)

2b a is a constant of proportionality. A1 3.2a 6th

Understand
exponential
models in
bivariate data.

(1)

2c Extrapolation/out of the range of the data. A1 2.4 4th

Understand the
concepts of
interpolation and
extrapolation.

(1)

(5 marks)

Notes

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Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

3a The data seems to follow an exponential distribution. B1 2.4 6th

Understand
exponential
models in
bivariate data.

(1)

3b r  0.9735 is close to 1 B1 2.2a 2nd

Know and
which gives a strong positive correlation. B1 2.4
understand the
language of
correlation and
regression.

(2)

3c Model is a good fit with a reason. For example, B2 3.2a 6th

Very strong positive linear correlation between t and log10 p. Understand
exponential
The transformed data points lie close (enough) to a straight
models in
line.
bivariate data.

(2)

(5 marks)

Notes
3c
B0 for just stating the model is a good fit with no reason.

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Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

4a H0 : 𝜌 = 0, H1 : 𝜌 < 0 B1 2.5 6th

Critical value = −0.6319 M1 1.1a Carry out a
hypothesis test for
−0.6319 < −0.136 no evidence to reject H0 (test statistic not in
zero correlation.
critical region)
There is insufficient evidence to suggest that the weight of
A1 2.2b
chickens and average weight of eggs are negatively correlated.

(3)

4b Sensible explanation. For example, correlation shows there is B1 1.2 7th

no (or extremely weak) linear realtionship between the two
Interpret the
variables.
results of a
hypothesis test for
For example, there could be a non-linear relationship between B1 3.5b
zero correlation.
the two variables.

(2)

(5 marks)

Notes

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Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

5a A critical value is the point (or points) on the scale of the test B1 1.2 5th
statistic beyond which we reject the null hypothesis.
Understand the
language of
hypothesis
testing.
(1)

5b H0 : 𝜌 = 0, H1 : 𝜌 > 0 B1 2.5 6th

Critical value = 0.5494 M1 1.1b Carry out a
0.714 > 0.5494 (test statistic in critical region) hypothesis test for
There is evidence to reject H0 zero correlation.
A1 2.2b
There is evidence that there is a positive correlation between the
number of vehicles and road traffic accidents.
(3)

5c r = −7.0 + 0.02v B1 1.2 4th

Make predictions
using the
regression line
within the range
of the data.
(1)

5d Road fatalities per 100 000 population. B1 1.2 2nd

Know and
understand the
language of
correlation and
regression.
(1)

5e Outside the range of the data used in the model. B1 3.5b 4th
or Understand the
concepts of
This would require extrapolation.
interpolation and
extrapolation.
(1)

(7 marks)

Notes

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Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

6a Linear association between e and f. B1 1.2 2nd

Know and
understand the
language of
correlation and
regression.
(1)

6b It requires extropolation and hence it may be unreliable. B1 1.2 4th

Understand the
concepts of
interpolation and
extrapolation.
(1)

6c Fuel consumption (f) B1 1.2 2nd

Know and
understand the
language of
correlation and
regression.
(1)

6d A hypothesis test is a statistical test that is used to determine B1 1.2 5th

whether there is enough evidence in a sample of data to infer
Understand the
that a certain condition is true for the entire population.
language of
hypothesis
testing.
(1)

6e H0 : ρ = 0, H1 : ρ < 0 B1 2.5 6th

Critical value = −0.3665 M1 1.1b Carry out a
−0.803 < −0.3665 (test statistic in critical region) Reject H0 hypothesis test for
There is evidence that the product moment correlation zero correlation.
coeficient for CO2 emissions and fuel consumption is less than A1 2.2b
zero.
(3)

(7 marks)

Notes

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Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

7a A statistic that is calculated from sample data in order to test a B1 1.2 5th
hypothesis about a population.
Understand the
language of
hypothesis
testing.

(1)

7b H0 : 𝜌 = 0, H1 : 𝜌 ≠ 0 B1 2.5 6th
p-value < 0.05 M1 Carry out a
hypothesis test for
There is evidence to reject H0 1.1b
zero correlation.
There is evidence (at 5% level) of a correlation between the A1 2.2b
daily mean temperature and daily mean pressure.

(3)

7c Two sensible interpretations or observations. For example, B2 3.2a 4th

Two distinct distributions Use the principles
of bivariate data
Similar gradients of regression line.
analysis in the
Similar correlations for each season. context of the
Lower temperaure in autumn. large data set.

More spread for the daily mean pressure in autumn.

(2)

(6 marks)

Notes

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Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

8a Linear association between two variables. B1 1.2 2nd

Know and
understand the
language of
correlation and
regression.

(1)

8b Negative correlation. B1 1.2 2nd

Know and
understand the
language of
correlation and
regression.

(1)

8c As daily mean pressure increases (rises) daily mean wind speed B1 3.2 5th
decreases (falls) in Hurn May to October in 2015.
Interpret the
or PPMC as a
measure of
As daily mean pressure decreases (falls) daily mean wind speed
correlation.
increases (rises) in Hurn May to October in 2015.

(1)

8d H0 : 𝜌 = 0, H1 : 𝜌 < 0 B1 2.5 6th

p-value < 0.05 M1 1.1b Carry out a
hypothesis test for
There is evidence to reject H0.
zero correlation.
There is (strong) evidence of negative correlation between the A1 2.2b
daily mean wind speed and daily mean pressure.

(3)

8e Daily mean wind speed = 180 − 0.170 × daily mean pressure. B2 1.1b 4th
Use the principles
of bivariate data
analysis in the
context of the
large data set.

(2)

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Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A level) Unit Test 1: Regression and correlation

8f The regression model suggests for every hPa increase in daily B1 3.2 4th
mean pressure the daily mean wind speed decreases by 0.1694
Use the principles
knots.
of bivariate data
or analysis in the
context of the
The regression model suggests for every hPa decrease in daily
large data set.
mean pressure the daily mean wind speed increases by 0.1694
knots.

(1)

8g Sensible comment. For example, B1 3.5b 4th

Not very accurate as very few or no points Make predictions
using the
Not very accurate as near the bottom range for the data.
regression line
within the range
of the data.

(1)

(10 marks)

Notes
8e
B1 y = 180.0 − 0.1694x unless x and y are defined.

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