A B C D E F G H I J

1 Panel 1: Risk Parameters of the Investable Universe (annualized)

2

SD of SD of Correlation
3 excess Systematic SD of with the S&P
return Beta component Residual 500
4 S&P 500 0.1358 1.00 0.1358 0 1
5 HP 0.3817 2.03 0.2762 0.2656 0.72
6 DELL 0.2901 1.23 0.1672 0.2392 0.58
7 WMT 0.1935 0.62 0.0841 0.1757 0.43
8 TARGET 0.2611 1.27 0.1720 0.1981 0.66
9 BP 0.1822 0.47 0.0634 0.1722 0.35
10 SHELL 0.1988 0.67 0.0914 0.1780 0.46
11
12 Panel 2: Correlation of Residuals
13
14 HP DELL WMT TARGET BP
15 HP 1
16 DELL 0.08 1
17 WMT -0.34 0.17 1
18 TARGET -0.10 0.12 0.50 1
19 BP -0.20 -0.28 -0.19 -0.13 1
20 SHELL -0.06 -0.19 -0.24 -0.22 0.70
21
22 Panel 3: The Index Model Covariance Matrix
23
24 S&P 500 HP DELL WMT TARGET BP SHELL
25 Beta 1.00 2.03 1.23 0.62 1.27 0.47 0.67
26 S&P 500 1.00 0.0184 0.0375 0.0227 0.0114 0.0234 0.0086 0.0124
27 HP 2.03 0.0375 0.1457 0.0462 0.0232 0.0475 0.0175 0.0253
28 DELL 1.23 0.0227 0.0462 0.0842 0.0141 0.0288 0.0106 0.0153
29 WMT 0.62 0.0114 0.0232 0.0141 0.0374 0.0145 0.0053 0.0077
30 TARGET 1.27 0.0234 0.0475 0.0288 0.0145 0.0682 0.0109 0.0157
31 BP 0.47 0.0086 0.0175 0.0106 0.0053 0.0109 0.0332 0.0058
32 SHELL 0.67 0.0124 0.0253 0.0153 0.0077 0.0157 0.0058 0.0395
33
34 Cells on the diagonal (shadowed) equal to variance
35 formula in cell C26 =B4^2
36 Cells off diagonal equal to covariance
37 formula in Cell C27 =C$25*$B27*$B$4^2
38 multiplies beta from row and column by index variance
39
40 Panel 4: Macro Forecast and Forecasts of Alpha Values
41
42
43 S&P 500 HP DELL WMT TARGET BP SHELL
44 Alpha 0 0.0150 -0.0100 -0.0050 0.0075 0.012 0.0025
45 Risk premium 0.0600 0.1371 0.0639 0.0322 0.0835 0.0400 0.0429 Risk Premium = (Beta(i)*Aver
46
47 Table 5: Computation of the Optimal Risky Portfolio
48
49 S&P 500 Active Pf A HP DELL WMT TARGET BP SHELL Overall Pf
50 s2(e) 0.0705 0.0572 0.0309 0.0392 0.0297 0.0317
51 a/s2(e) 0.5505 0.2126 -0.1748 -0.1619 0.1911 0.4045 0.0789
52 W0(i) 1.0000 0.3863 -0.3176 -0.2941 0.3472 0.7349 0.1433
53 [W0(i)]2 0.1492 0.1009 0.0865 0.1205 0.5400 0.0205
54 aA 0.0222 0.0058 0.0032 0.0015 0.0026 0.0088 0.0004
55 s2(eA) 0.0404 0.0105 0.0058 0.0027 0.0047 0.0160 0.0007
56 W0 0.1691
57 W* 0.8282 0.1718 0.0663 -0.0546 -0.0505 0.0596 0.1262 0.0246
58 Beta* (see fn) 1 1.0922 0.7859 -0.3911 -0.1823 0.4400 0.3432 0.0965 1.0158
59 Risk premium* 0.06 0.0878 0.0530 -0.0203 -0.0095 0.0290 0.0294 0.0062 0.0648
60 SD 0.1358 0.2497 0.1422
61 Sharpe Ratio 0.4420 0.3514 0.4556
 Abbott
Laboratories Adamjee Avg Excess Arif Habib
Name (Pakistan) Insurance returns of 1 and 2 Al-Ghazi Tractors Corporation
1/31/2012 0.015432408057 0.048053527981 0.031742968019 -0.092271072529 0.086624203822
2/29/2012 -0.089904273167 0.081253627394 -0.004325322886 0.087151010335 0.066041422431
3/30/2012 0.095207113424 0.074074074074 0.084640593749 -0.05788876277 0.081744868035
4/30/2012 0.134653465347 0.132433783108 0.133543624227 0.060165662651 -0.001355472721
5/31/2012 -0.022687609075 0.047219770521 0.012266080723 0.104623907948 -0.015948422124
6/29/2012 0.062946428571 -0.132321955331 -0.03468776338 -0.021990740741 -0.030344827586
7/31/2012 0.393952120958 0.08207867897 0.238015399964 0.051939513478 0.066856330014
8/31/2012 0.288460379632 0.008078994614 0.148269687123 0.0151875 -0.013333333333
9/28/2012 -0.010242259845 0.022707034728 0.006232387442 -0.065012620821 -0.100675675676
10/31/2012 -0.007465860228 -0.015237265999 -0.011351563113 0.039375781919 -0.096919609316
11/30/2012 0.069650083313 0.146772767462 0.108211425388 0.021666138739 0.065723793677
12/31/2012 0.021452732776 -0.071703932151 -0.025125599688 0.094933961679 -0.058548009368
1/31/2013 -0.067494553377 0.013704318937 -0.02689511722 -0.027749462 0.006218905473
2/28/2013 0.023036306715 0.091765669807 0.057400988261 -0.013921248835 -0.004532344458
3/29/2013 -0.052251758473 -0.068292682927 -0.0602722207 -0.073837793136 0.003725165563
4/30/2013 0.34578313253 0.118405155054 0.232094143792 -0.033866955801 -0.060618556701
5/31/2013 0.055863921218 0.10803024847 0.081947084844 0.035978346976 0.093942054434
6/28/2013 0.11273528913 -0.126096847579 -0.006680779224 -0.034728860001 -0.110754414125
7/31/2013 0.255783474047 0.152844923763 0.204314198905 0.097636651703 0.075812274368
8/30/2013 -0.05342103347 -0.074193548387 -0.063807290929 -0.082275816443 -0.060402684564
9/30/2013 0.098717948718 -0.087108013937 0.00580496739 -0.021757651222 -0.090178571429
10/31/2013 0.010455075846 -0.015267175573 -0.002406049863 -0.019896831245 0.002453385672
11/29/2013 -0.0240195852 0.408914728682 0.192447571741 0.03034859877 0.06069505629
12/31/2013 -0.068815372237 0.028060522696 -0.020377424771 0.043916677723 0.02676511306
1/31/2014 -0.008894536213 0.059138346267 0.025121905027 -0.039654295882 0.050337078652
2/28/2014 -0.063256410256 0.051541182415 -0.005857613921 0.345685547909 -0.002139495079
3/31/2014 0.147099882298 0.127823161941 0.13746152212 0.019276160504 0.17667238422
4/30/2014 0.232705753215 0.021516829996 0.127111291606 -0.029911231185 0.08527696793
5/30/2014 0.138969008304 0.013555787278 0.076262397791 0.189824945295 -0.009066487576
6/30/2014 -0.02729528536 -0.058230452675 -0.042762869017 0.101358411703 -0.056590986106
7/28/2014 0.033722393067 0.097006772995 0.065364583031 -0.007855787476 -0.006465517241
8/29/2014 -0.123153375478 -0.068711412069 -0.095932393773 -0.051371303982 -0.063268257411
9/30/2014 0.168979875087 0.022668947819 0.095824411453 0.175403225806 -0.022385179467
10/31/2014 0.016556182184 -0.046842325387 -0.015143071601 0.313276157804 -0.115278326096
11/28/2014 0.350793238815 0.037516454585 0.1941548467 0.10832767358 0.020526550647
12/31/2014 -0.146545616121 0.045887079721 -0.0503292682 -0.134978434561 0.20244862265
1/30/2015 0.012199583497 0.134452082491 0.073325832994 0.034875483625 0.308
2/27/2015 -0.110307916869 -0.060060595259 -0.085184256064 -0.060739297562 -0.073672504865
3/31/2015 -0.22290625 -0.241941600303 -0.232423925152 -0.092838121934 -0.054321728691
 4/30/2015 0.115956890658 0.15707853927 0.136517714964 0.135803232086 0.180260234846
5/29/2015 0.100160357471 -0.040856031128 0.029652163171 0.086811034333 0.019897821995
6/30/2015 0.09287585981 0.073247689881 0.083061774845 0.226864251921 0.403110993936
7/31/2015 0.019016648934 0.172406551869 0.095711600401 0.04207132947 0.070274332958
8/31/2015 0.022058823529 0.016120365395 0.019089594462 -0.024944198614 -0.080231741573
9/30/2015 -0.059712230216 -0.082143486691 -0.070927858454 -0.150883534137 -0.044283260164
10/30/2015 0.074812547819 0.096216631458 0.085514589639 0.178498793927 0.18573996405
11/30/2015 -0.087743276527 -0.021723896286 -0.054733586407 -0.170967612473 -0.177530739431
12/31/2015 -0.008989325176 0.011998567335 0.001504621079 -0.00033886818 0.046692607004
1/29/2016 -0.03937007874 -0.017165103522 -0.028267591131 -0.077554479419 -0.086480140873
2/29/2016 0.065442622951 -0.054555275477 0.005443673737 -0.005748484133 -0.060612550867
3/31/2016 0.01881770064 0.019424871453 0.019121286047 0.214134854005 -0.073187414501
4/29/2016 0.012610435702 0.03979077153 0.026200603616 -0.023157711627 -0.081918819188
5/31/2016 -0.015585384042 -0.059108875314 -0.037347129678 -0.017362656932 0.047427652733
6/30/2016 0.142337701689 -0.042199732671 0.050068984509 -0.043969735411 0.0092095165
7/29/2016 0.034893899204 0.045255183413 0.040074541309 0.02729663768 -0.004562737643
8/31/2016 0.018851482103 -0.003051687965 0.007899897069 -0.003552070119 0.137764196588
9/30/2016 0.067268747956 0.044958867419 0.056113807688 0.013934862619 -0.088406445837
10/31/2016 -0.054213317619 0.026547052362 -0.013833132629 0.098280939662 -0.101399459858
11/30/2016 0.107788161994 0.061886927055 0.084837544525 0.459819572628 0.089071038251
12/30/2016 0.07659167604 0.245213301982 0.160902489011 -0.187287302966 0.103863522328
 Avg Avg
Chearat Excess Colgate Excess
Avg Excess Cement returns of Palmolive returns of
returns of 3 and 4 Attock Refinery Company 5 and 6 Pakistan Telecard 7 and 8 Thal KSE
-0.002823434354 0.121133302369 0.724211 0.422672 0.082368 0.225 0.153684 -0.04653 0.07481
0.076596216383 0.069848371862 0.15873 0.114289 0.152524 0.163265 0.157894 0.003667 0.123479
0.011928052633 -0.003949814126 0.368809 0.18243 0.021855 0.631579 0.326717 0.107223 0.186347
0.029405094965 -0.04043231475 0.251732 0.10565 -0.007534 -0.301075 -0.154305 0.168422 0.048145
0.044337742912 0.061340247954 0.214022 0.137681 0.186717 0.276923 0.23182 -0.052683 0.039763
-0.026167784163 -0.061917850053 -0.011145 -0.036531 0.021351 -0.10241 -0.040529 -0.030501 -0.038692
0.059397921746 0.016928460975 0.237193 0.127061 0.2164 0.013423 0.114912 0.315789 0.061367
0.000927083333 0.028731492597 0.032298 0.030515 0.136677 0.927152 0.531915 -0.008989 0.100849
-0.082844148248 -0.011825112805 0.048937 0.018556 0.018451 0.123711 0.071081 0.073016 0.027288
-0.028771913699 0.283341206109 0.112811 0.198076 0.11486 -0.299694 -0.092417 -0.186982 0.036227
0.043694966208 0.04453714496 0.078351 0.061444 0.064674 0.227074 0.145874 0.144833 0.147716
0.018192976156 -0.015798437775 0.023901 0.004051 0.098903 -0.081851 0.008526 -0.029425 0.023415
-0.010765278264 0.022974101921 0.026455 0.024715 0 0.418605 0.209302 0.005895 0.010909
-0.009226796647 0.074549378755 0.017283 0.045916 0.06666 1.02459 0.545625 -0.074419 0.033258
-0.035056313787 0.088377395364 0.015201 0.051789 0.142602 -0.215924 -0.036661 -0.015176 -0.000587
-0.047242756251 -0.039104194723 0.088373 0.024635 0.063979 -0.146299 -0.04116 0.375242 0.06608
0.064960200705 0.005450298469 0.057189 0.03132 -0.069468 0.225806 0.078169 -0.008756 0.181355
-0.072741637063 -0.10918946825 -0.021434 -0.065312 0.013814 -0.148026 -0.067106 -0.045591 -0.020055
0.086724463036 0.504665314402 0.340808 0.422737 -0.019075 -0.003861 -0.011468 0.198368 0.109784
-0.071339250503 -0.164156684513 -0.304551 -0.234354 -0.002774 -0.23062 -0.116697 -0.134703 -0.0641
-0.055968111325 -0.067231924796 -0.088367 -0.077799 -0.126742 0.498741 0.185999 -0.090091 0.005289
-0.008721722787 -0.086552712183 -0.031902 -0.059227 0.014035 -0.156303 -0.071134 -0.070496 -0.031803
0.04552182753 0.120389399676 0.09981 0.1101 0.093426 0.173307 0.133366 0.055541 0.102827
0.035340895391 0.002461865225 0.201671 0.102066 0.047468 -0.11545 -0.033991 0.171496 0.149904
0.005341391385 0.043675061395 0.216255 0.129965 0.054381 -0.005758 0.024311 0.171995 0.157401
0.171773026415 -0.047568515272 0.053617 0.003024 -0.060172 -0.013514 -0.036843 -0.146816 -0.065882
0.097974272362 0.069902630432 0.007109 0.038506 -0.021341 0.033268 0.005963 0.227776 0.067836
0.027682868373 -0.022865163452 -0.030838 -0.026851 -0.003084 -0.015152 -0.009118 0.077177 0.035876
0.09037922886 0.002363189843 -0.096799 -0.047218 0.043717 -0.001923 0.020897 0.133888 0.045831
0.022383712798 -0.018629807692 0.007216 -0.005707 0.072323 -0.206166 -0.066921 0.000338 -0.019355
-0.007160652359 0.016204248905 0.335862 0.176033 -0.033941 -0.097087 -0.065514 0.108588 0.001854
-0.057319780697 -0.154081490752 -0.1347 -0.144391 -0.132948 -0.115591 -0.12427 -0.144491 -0.063706
0.07650902317 0.122691654337 -0.045206 0.038743 0.033333 0.231003 0.132168 0.225278 0.103222
0.098998915854 -0.047100741898 0.12352 0.03821 0.089032 -0.177778 -0.044373 0.116888 0.045494
0.064427112114 -0.021410643856 0.100935 0.039762 0.05628 0.015015 0.035647 0.010885 0.082692
0.033735094044 -0.017168280555 0.06004 0.021436 0.121705 -0.02071 0.050497 -0.011283 0.026214
0.171437741812 0.043244394738 0.244176 0.14371 -0.05 0.030211 -0.009894 0.199978 0.069592
-0.067205901214 -0.088519066823 -0.139029 -0.113774 -0.002632 -0.1261 -0.064366 -0.057801 -0.041535
-0.073579925313 -0.138616633996 -0.067283 -0.10295 -0.144237 -0.154362 -0.1493 -0.160535 -0.134635
0.158031733466 0.338036410923 0.087438 0.212737 -0.044195 0.194444 0.075125 0.154892 0.102193
0.053354428164 0.011565187813 0.028679 0.020122 -0.080645 0.049834 -0.015406 -0.078233 -0.005832
0.314987622929 0.097420377576 0.133794 0.115607 0.064561 0.348101 0.206331 0.05007 0.118575
0.056172831214 0.135872182097 0.017235 0.076554 -0.011931 0.039906 0.013987 0.016011 0.098701
-0.052587970093 -0.180392307989 0.001468 -0.089462 -0.05931 -0.065463 -0.062386 0.00431 0.005558
-0.09758339715 -0.101984201617 -0.027521 -0.064753 -0.042553 -0.227053 -0.134803 -0.13133 -0.073937
0.182119378989 0.020524634798 0.00232 0.011422 0.137037 0.009375 0.073206 0.032767 0.046191
-0.174249175952 -0.000564363039 -0.063874 -0.032219 -0.04886 -0.071207 -0.060034 -0.055226 -0.025621
0.023176869412 0.087679671458 0.11471 0.101195 -0.006849 -0.04 -0.023425 0.026209 -4.11E-05
-0.082017310146 -0.029073060223 0.085052 0.02799 0.067241 -0.03125 0.017996 -0.021 -0.048289
-0.0331805175 -0.03295741785 -0.072253 -0.052605 -0.063005 -0.014337 -0.038671 -0.06786 -0.035995
0.070473719752 0.157987332864 0.188698 0.173343 0.017241 -0.050909 -0.016834 0.101782 0.025965
-0.052538265407 0.121283153188 0.034381 0.077832 0.004203 0.318008 0.161106 0.032547 0.059104
0.015032497901 -0.023847315241 0.007436 -0.008206 -0.00081 -0.02907 -0.01494 0.047338 0.047606
-0.017380109455 0.111005353956 0.063317 0.087161 0.030405 -0.083832 -0.026713 0.027482 -0.010362
0.011366950019 0.092132505176 0.094171 0.093152 -0.019672 -0.039216 -0.029444 0.122924 0.056677
0.067106063234 0.100833469521 -0.051135 0.024849 -0.011706 0.173469 0.080882 0.064221 0.089773
-0.037235791609 -0.03242280285 0.036411 0.001994 0.106599 0.252174 0.179386 0.199367 0.107625
-0.001559260098 0.018473057567 -0.019975 -0.000751 -0.021407 -0.134259 -0.077833 -0.045902 -0.00444
0.27444530544 0.118318770714 0.267825 0.193072 0.015625 0.34492 0.180272 0.14774 0.156041
-0.041711890319 0.145836139774 0.088703 0.117269 0.107692 -0.057654 0.025019 0.144796 0.059422
 Panel 1.
SD Beta SD (Systematic Component)
Avg Excess returns of 1 and 2 0.08776218740686 0.80318958 0.006025483039607
Avg Excess returns of 3 and 4 0.086602607428652 0.63043396 0.0059458698292
Avg Excess returns of 5 and 6 0.113547076555685 0.95362449 0.007795794569379
Avg Excess returns of 7 and 8 0.140112651507388 1.05834322 0.009619705595739
Excess returns of Thal 0.119257697709831 1.07110013 0.008187868330604
KSE 0.068656937772904

Panel 3.

KSE 1 2
Beta 1 0.80319 0.630434
KSE 1 0.00471378 0.003786 0.002972
1 0.803189579460325 0.00378606 0.007702 0.002387
2 0.630433961239546 0.00297172 0.002387 0.0075
3 0.953624494534217 0.00449517 0.00361 0.002834
4 1.05834321929139 0.00498879 0.004007 0.003145
5 1.0711001261896 0.00504893 0.004055 0.003183

Panel 4.
Macro Forecast and Forecasts of Alpha Values
Risk Premium = (Beta(i)*Average Market Excess Return)+Alpha(i)

KSE 1 2
Alpha 0 0.004568 -0.003162
Risk premium 0.04088981 0.03741 0.022616
Beta 1 0.80319 0.630434
SD of residuals 0.068274 0.07501

Panel 5.
Computation of the Optimal Risky Portfolio

KSE Active Pf A 1 2
s2(e) 0.004661 0.005627
a/s (e)
2 1.0243111 0.979934 -0.562043
W0(i) 1 0.956676 -0.548703
[W0(i)]2 0.91523 0.301075
aA 0.02340798 0.00437 0.001735
s (eA)
2
0.02285241 0.004266 0.001694
W0A (aA/VareA)/(riskp 0.11808254
W*A 0.77777841191112 0.22222159 0.212594 -0.121934
Beta* (see fn) 1 0.11808254 -0.440713 -0.345921
Risk premium* 0.040889807192488 0.06054935 0.035789 -0.012409
SD 0.068656937772904 0.01145907 ((B(A)*SDM)^2+VarA of residuals)^0.5
Sharpe Ratio 0.595567010689276 5.28396659

As done in class/slides
Erp 0.037058490348788
SDP 0.055228533934129
Sharpe ratio 0.671002608778061
ematic Component) SD (Res) Correlation with market
6025483039607 0.068274 0.628340502968613
059458698292 0.07501 0.49979632867761
7795794569379 0.09277 0.576614912210828
9619705595739 0.119799 0.518601309500104
8187868330604 0.093886 0.616634868226927

3 4 Thal
0.953624 1.058343 1.0711
0.004495 0.004989 0.005049
0.00361 0.004007 0.004055
0.002834 0.003145 0.003183
0.012893 0.004757 0.004815
0.004757 0.019632 0.005343
0.004815 0.005343 0.014222

3 4 5
0.011294 -0.00259 -0.004632
0.050288 0.040685 0.039165
0.953624 1.058343 1.0711
0.09277 0.119799 0.093886

3 4 5
 0.008606 0.014352 0.008814
1.312356 -0.180469 -0.525468
1.281209 -0.176186 -0.512996
1.641496 0.031041 0.263165 we get the weights they should be equal to 1.
0.014471 0.000456 0.002376 The Wo found multiplied by stock alpha
0.014127 0.000445 0.00232 W0i^2*var of resid

0.284712 -0.039152 -0.113999 W0A/1+(1-BA)*WoA where, Woi*W*A

1.221792 -0.186465 -0.54947 Beta of portfolio = Weight of Market Portfolio+(Weight of Active Portfolio*Beta of Active Portf
0.064429 -0.007168 -0.020092 Risk PremiumA = (BetaA*Average Market Excess Return)+AlphaA
M)^2+VarA of residuals)^0.5 0.101181
-0.198571
e Portfolio*Beta of Active Portfolio)
where, W0i*riskpremi
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.628341
R Square 0.394812
Adjusted R Square 0.384378
Standard Error 0.06886
Observations 60

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.1794142775 0.179414 37.83795 7.6647783892881E-08
Residual 58 0.2750156132 0.004742
Total 59 0.4544298908

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 0.004568 0.0103698422 0.440484 0.661224 -0.016189745387961
X Variable 1 0.80319 0.1305732589 6.151256 7.665E-08 0.541818804248994

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 0.064655 -0.0329117756
2 0.103745 -0.1080700138
3 0.154239 -0.0695988452
4 0.043237 0.0903065644
5 0.036505 -0.0242387587
6 -0.026509 -0.0081784698
7 0.053857 0.1841581229
8 0.085569 0.0627011405
9 0.026485 -0.0202528734
10 0.033665 -0.0450164166
11 0.123211 -0.0150000418
12 0.023374 -0.0485000899
13 0.01333 -0.0402247619
14 0.03128 0.0261209358
15 0.004096 -0.0643681203
16 0.057642 0.1744520048
17 0.15023 -0.0682831616
18 -0.01154 0.0048592008
19 0.092745 0.1115687343
20 -0.046917 -0.0168907158
21 0.008816 -0.003011077
22 -0.020976 0.0185698222
23 0.087158 0.1052898697
24 0.124969 -0.1453462883
25 0.130991 -0.1058690681
26 -0.048348 0.0424900749
27 0.059053 0.0784088901
28 0.033383 0.0937285447
29 0.041378 0.0348839489
30 -0.010978 -0.0317850357
31 0.006057 0.0593077855
32 -0.0466 -0.0493320241
33 0.087475 0.0083495238
34 0.041108 -0.0562512137
35 0.070985 0.1231699137
36 0.025623 -0.0759520285
37 0.060463 0.0128629103
38 -0.028793 -0.0563912244
39 -0.10357 -0.1288539732
40 0.086648 0.0498692545
41 -0.000116 0.0297685057
42 0.099806 -0.0167440327
43 0.083844 0.0118680315
44 0.009032 0.0100574402
45 -0.054818 -0.0161100888
46 0.041668 0.0438466005
47 -0.01601 -0.0387231169
48 0.004535 -0.0030301125
49 -0.034218 0.0059499309
50 -0.024343 0.0297866028
51 0.025422 -0.006301026
52 0.052039 -0.0258385364
53 0.042804 -0.0801516126
54 -0.003755 0.0538235283
55 0.050091 -0.0100159714
56 0.076673 -0.0687727661
57 0.091011 -0.0348969917
58 0.001001 -0.0148343847
59 0.129898 -0.0450607671
60 0.052295 0.1086075024
0.0682735789
 X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Y
-0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
X Variable
Y 1 Predicted Y

X Variable 1 Residual Plot

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
0.3
0.025325243654 -0.0161897454 0.025325243654
0.2
1.064560354672 0.54181880425 1.064560354672

Residuals
0.1
0
-0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
-0.1
-0.2
X Variable 1
Line Fit Plot

1 0.15 0.2 0.25

redicted Y

Residual Plot

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

Variable 1
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.499796
R Square 0.249796
Adjusted R 0.236862
Standard E 0.075654
Observatio 60

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.110535064954363 0.110535 19.31234 4.7882042867995E-05
Residual 58 0.331965620238669 0.005724
Total 59 0.442500685193032

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -0.003162 0.011393050661094 -0.277569 0.78233 -0.025968022923751
X Variable 0.630434 0.143457124862664 4.394581 4.788E-05 0.343273326176747

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
1 0.044001 -0.046824144636654
2 0.074683 0.001913297341247
3 0.114317 -0.102388851751376
4 0.02719 0.002215403594583
5 0.021905 0.022432259032032
6 -0.027555 0.001387345577405
7 0.035526 0.023872283575582
8 0.060416 -0.059489143343966
9 0.014041 -0.096885134384547
10 0.019676 -0.048448255668025
11 0.089963 -0.046267679056809
12 0.011599 0.006593674393145
13 0.003715 -0.014480249956839
14 0.017804 -0.027031277164092
15 -0.003533 -0.031523598735741
16 0.038496 -0.08573918184772
17 0.11117 -0.046209836213075
18 -0.015806 -0.056936116443854
19 0.066049 0.020674980021437
20 -0.043573 -0.0277661796317
21 0.000172 -0.056140299368811
22 -0.023212 0.014490152402408
23 0.061664 -0.016141747922038
24 0.091342 -0.056001153143086
25 0.096069 -0.090727489415199
26 -0.044696 0.216469397006299
27 0.039604 0.058370732415505
28 0.019455 0.008227955531768
29 0.025731 0.064648385395072
30 -0.015364 0.037747997159962
31 -0.001994 -0.005167071592077
32 -0.043325 -0.01399490360774
33 0.061913 0.014596484636535
34 0.025519 0.073480239742266
35 0.048969 0.015457753760935
36 0.013364 0.020371095803473
37 0.04071 0.130727246328839
38 -0.029348 -0.037858235691477
39 -0.088041 0.014461118823932
40 0.061264 0.096767868346066
41 -0.006839 0.060193386948467
42 0.071591 0.243396384754434
43 0.059062 -0.002889437964214
44 0.000342 -0.052929785589078
45 -0.049775 -0.047808575831514
46 0.025958 0.156161271663558
47 -0.019314 -0.154934709903425
48 -0.003188 0.026365137983362
49 -0.033605 -0.048411891458751
50 -0.025855 -0.007325795422475
51 0.013207 0.057267055926472
52 0.034099 -0.086636824146202
53 0.02685 -0.011817658190978
54 -0.009695 -0.007685479127859
55 0.032569 -0.021202105751209
56 0.053434 0.013672331384056
57 0.064688 -0.101923713309458
58 -0.005962 0.004402484139589
59 0.095211 0.179234068947592
60 0.034299 -0.076011266366035
0.075010238876094
 X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
0.4

0.2

Y
0
-0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
-0.2
X Variable 1

Y Predicted Y

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

0.019643314488376 -0.02596802 0.019643
0.917594596302346 0.34327333 0.917595
lot

.15 0.2 0.25

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics X Var

Multiple R 0.576615
R Square 0.332485
Adjusted R 0.320976

Y
Standard E 0.093566
Observatio 60 -0.2 -0.1

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.2529156278 0.252916 28.8894 1.423E-06
Residual 58 0.5077677493 0.008755
Total 59 0.7606833771

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.011294 0.0140904879 0.801565 0.426076 -0.016911 0.0395 -0.016911 0.0395
X Variable 0.953624 0.1774222673 5.374886 1.423E-06 0.598475 1.308774 0.598475 1.308774

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
1 0.082636 0.3400363673
2 0.129047 -0.0147576549
3 0.188999 -0.0065694484
4 0.057206 0.0484434958
5 0.049213 0.0884679409
6 -0.025603 -0.0109281355
7 0.069816 0.0572447934
8 0.107466 -0.0769516259
9 0.037317 -0.0187610832
10 0.045841 0.15223461
11 0.15216 -0.090715933
12 0.033624 -0.0295725624
13 0.021697 0.0030171478
14 0.04301 0.0029064106
15 0.010734 0.0410550743
16 0.07431 -0.0496748714
17 0.184239 -0.1529193758
18 -0.00783 -0.0574815419
19 0.115988 0.3067492565
20 -0.049833 -0.1845209881
21 0.016338 -0.0941378403
22 -0.019033 -0.0401938591
23 0.109353 0.000746403
24 0.154246 -0.0521798877
25 0.161396 -0.0314312684
26 -0.051532 0.0545562271
27 0.075984 -0.0374781381
28 0.045506 -0.0723578956
29 0.055 -0.102217543
30 -0.007163 0.0014556828
31 0.013062 0.1629706261
32 -0.049457 -0.0949335994
33 0.10973 -0.0709869955
34 0.054679 -0.0164688973
35 0.090151 -0.0503893934
36 0.036293 -0.0148570698
37 0.077659 0.0660515303
38 -0.028315 -0.0854591628
39 -0.117097 0.0141473649
40 0.108749 0.103988619
41 0.005733 0.0143888756
42 0.12437 -0.0087632861
43 0.105418 -0.0288645707
44 0.016595 -0.1060569589
45 -0.059214 -0.0055387368
46 0.055343 -0.0439213037
47 -0.013138 -0.019081223
48 0.011255 0.089939349
49 -0.034755 0.062744716
50 -0.023031 -0.02957432
51 0.036055 0.1372876391
52 0.067657 0.0101747477
53 0.056693 -0.0648984863
54 0.001413 0.0857477794
55 0.065343 0.027808161
56 0.096904 -0.0720551812
57 0.113928 -0.1119341595
58 0.00706 -0.0078109894
59 0.160099 0.0329726375
60 0.067961 0.0493085314
0.0927697852
 X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
0.6
0.4
0.2 Y
Predicted Y
Y

0
-0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
-0.4
X Variable 1
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics X Var

Multiple R 0.518601
R Square 0.268947
Adjusted R 0.256343

Y
Standard E 0.120827
Observatio 60
-0.2 -0.1

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.3115113919 0.311511 21.33765 2.189E-05
Residual 58 0.8467503597 0.014599
Total 59 1.1582617516

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
Intercept -0.00518 0.0181958006 -0.142343 0.887303 -0.039013 0.033833 -0.039013 0.033833
X Variable 1.058343 0.2291148629 4.619269 2.189E-05 0.59972 1.516966 0.59972 1.516966

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
1 0.076585 0.0770987583
2 0.128093 0.0298014714
3 0.194629 0.1320883074
4 0.048364 -0.2026683354
5 0.039493 0.1923275464
6 -0.043539 0.0030101454
7 0.062358 0.0525540531
8 0.104143 0.4277717831
9 0.02629 0.0447909722
10 0.035751 -0.1281677848
11 0.153744 -0.0078695448
12 0.022191 -0.0136648002
13 0.008955 0.2003470269
14 0.032608 0.5130168821
15 -0.003212 -0.0334495401
16 0.067345 -0.1085051902
17 0.189346 -0.1111767615
18 -0.023815 -0.0432914367
19 0.1136 -0.1250674198
20 -0.07043 -0.0462676346
21 0.003008 0.1829914788
22 -0.036248 -0.0348854769
23 0.106237 0.0271294691
24 0.15606 -0.1900503411
25 0.163995 -0.1396834933
26 -0.072315 0.035472695
27 0.069203 -0.0632400391
28 0.035379 -0.0444965937
29 0.045915 -0.0250173671
30 -0.023074 -0.0438471058
31 -0.000628 -0.0648859944
32 -0.070013 -0.0542566753
33 0.106655 0.0255135186
34 0.045558 -0.0899311037
35 0.084926 -0.0492789408
36 0.025154 0.0253438304
37 0.071062 -0.0809559236
38 -0.046549 -0.0178169236
39 -0.14508 -0.0042195075
40 0.105566 -0.0304410736
41 -0.008762 -0.0066434881
42 0.122903 0.083428516
43 0.10187 -0.0878824383
44 0.003293 -0.0656790583
45 -0.080841 -0.0539622873
46 0.046296 0.026909978
47 -0.029705 -0.0303282321
48 -0.002634 -0.0207911175
49 -0.053696 0.0716921269
50 -0.040685 0.0020140462
51 0.02489 -0.0417233659
52 0.059962 0.1011436745
53 0.047794 -0.0627335312
54 -0.013556 -0.0131573474
55 0.057394 -0.0868381021
56 0.092421 -0.0115389903
57 0.111314 0.0680725969
58 -0.00729 -0.0705434715
59 0.162555 0.0177174195
60 0.060299 -0.0352798585
0.1197985852
 X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
0.6
0.4
Y
0.2 Predicted Y
Y

0
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
-0.2
X Variable 1
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics X Varia

Multiple R 0.616635 0.6
R Square 0.380239 0.4
Adjusted R 0.369553 0.2

Y
Standard E 0.094691 0
Observatio 60 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
-0.4
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.31906635 0.319066 35.5844 1.555E-07
Residual 58 0.52005515 0.008966
Total 59 0.83912151

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
Intercept -0.004632 0.01425996 -0.324807 0.746496 -0.033176 0.023913 -0.033176 0.023913
X Variable 1.0711 0.17955614 5.965266 1.555E-07 0.711679 1.430521 0.711679 1.430521

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
1 0.075498 -0.12202817
2 0.127627 -0.12395936
3 0.194964 -0.08774103
4 0.046936 0.12148634
5 0.037958 -0.09064127
6 -0.046075 0.01557369
7 0.061099 0.25469075
8 0.103388 -0.11237632
9 0.024597 0.04841933
10 0.034171 -0.2211532
11 0.153587 -0.00875398
12 0.020448 -0.04987327
13 0.007053 -0.00115775
14 0.030991 -0.10540929
15 -0.005261 -0.00991491
16 0.066146 0.30909631
17 0.189618 -0.19837401
18 -0.026112 -0.01947833
19 0.112958 0.08541011
20 -0.073289 -0.06141442
21 0.001034 -0.09112439
22 -0.038696 -0.03180066
23 0.105507 -0.04996614
24 0.15593 0.01556618
25 0.163961 0.00803379
26 -0.075198 -0.07161805
27 0.068027 0.15974873
28 0.033795 0.04338211
29 0.044457 0.08943007
30 -0.025363 0.02570031
31 -0.002646 0.11123368
32 -0.072867 -0.07162392
33 0.10593 0.11934859
34 0.044097 0.07279095
35 0.083939 -0.07305414
36 0.023446 -0.03472897
37 0.069908 0.13006996
38 -0.04912 -0.00868104
39 -0.14884 -0.01169557
40 0.104828 0.05006384
41 -0.010878 -0.06735432
42 0.122374 -0.07230387
43 0.101087 -0.08507626
44 0.001322 0.00298853
45 -0.083826 -0.04750469
46 0.044844 -0.0120768
47 -0.032074 -0.02315201
48 -0.004676 0.03088495
49 -0.056354 0.03535388
50 -0.043186 -0.02467436
51 0.023179 0.07860312
52 0.058674 -0.02612732
53 0.046359 0.00097922
54 -0.01573 0.0432123
55 0.056076 0.06684865
56 0.091524 -0.02730361
57 0.110645 0.08872216
58 -0.009388 -0.03651378
59 0.162504 -0.01476339
60 0.059015 0.08578106
0.09388554
 X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
0.6
0.4
0.2 Y
Predicted Y
Y

0
-0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
-0.4
X Variable 1