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Unit 5 - Activity 3 - Geometric Distribution Worksheet

The document discusses the geometric distribution and how it can be used to model the number of failures before a success. It defines the key terms like probability of failure (q), probability of success (p), and expected number of failures. It then provides two examples, one involving rolling a die and getting a 1, and another about the probability of an NHL player missing shots. It calculates probabilities and expected values for both examples.

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Nidhi Vyas
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144 views2 pages

Unit 5 - Activity 3 - Geometric Distribution Worksheet

The document discusses the geometric distribution and how it can be used to model the number of failures before a success. It defines the key terms like probability of failure (q), probability of success (p), and expected number of failures. It then provides two examples, one involving rolling a die and getting a 1, and another about the probability of an NHL player missing shots. It calculates probabilities and expected values for both examples.

Uploaded by

Nidhi Vyas
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Unit 5 - Activity 3 - Geometric Distribution Worksheet

Geometric distribution is a probability model that helps us determine how many failures occur
before a single success.

Random Variable, x = number of failures before success

Probability in a geometric Distribution:


P ( x ) =q x p
q = probability of failure for a single trial p = probability of success for a single trial
x = number of failures p+q=1

Expectation of a Geometric Distribution:


∞
E ( x )=∑ xp ( x )
x=0
q
E ( x )=
p
q = probability of failure for a single trial p = probability of success for a single trial

Example 1
a) Jason is rolling a die. Calculate the probability of getting a 1 on the 5th roll.

b) What is the expected number of rolls before a 1 comes out?

Example 2 A top NHL hockey player scores 93% of his shots in a shooting competition.
a) What is the probability that the player will not miss the goal until his 20 th try?

Note: Since the question is asking that the player does not miss the goal UNTIL his 20 th
try, this means he will miss on the 20th try. Therefore, the question is asking the
probability of the NHL player missing on his 20th shot. So, the player’s percentage of
scoring is actually probability of failure.

Note: Because the player misses the 20th shot, it means he scored 19 of his previous
shots. Since the scoring of the player is measured as unsuccessful, the number of
unsuccessful trials is

b) What is the expected number of shots before he misses?

c) What is the probability that the player will score 19 goals out of 20?

Note the difference between c and a – one is geometric and one is binomial!

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