Monthly Report on the Monitoring of

Forecast Accuracy Standards for

Must Dispatch Generating Units
Performance Report as of June 2021

Report Date: August 2021

Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines, Inc.
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 3
2. Overview on the Calculation of the Forecast Performance ...................................................................... 3
2.1. Calculating the Hourly Forecast Percentage Error ...................................................................... 3
2.2. Calculating the Mean Absolute Percentage Error ....................................................................... 4
2.3. Calculating the Perc95 .................................................................................................................. 5
3. Results of Forecast Performance for June 2021 ...................................................................................... 6
4. Compliance to the Submission of Projected Output for Must Dispatch Generating Units in June 2021
...................................................................................................................................................................... 8
5. Updated MAPE Performance for Each Must Dispatch Generating Unit ................................................10
6. Updated Perc95 Performance for Each Must Dispatch Generating Unit ...............................................12
7. Results of Simulation on FAS Compliance using the Proposed Changes .............................................14
7.1. Results of Simulation - MAPE Performance ..............................................................................14
7.2. Results of Simulation - Perc95 Performance .............................................................................16

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

1. Introduction

Consistent with the Grid Code, the WESM Rules require must dispatch generating units to comply with the
forecast accuracy standards in respect of their submitted hourly projected outputs.

Effective last 15 June 2017, the WESM Manual on the “Procedures for the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy
Standards for Must Dispatch Generating Units Issue 1” (commonly known as FAS Manual) provides that
each must dispatch generating unit shall comply with the established standards with respect to its Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Percentile 95 of the forecasting error (Perc95). Such standards are
different for each technology as detailed in the table below.

Table 1. Standards for Forecast Accuracy for Must Dispatch Generating Units
Technology Standards
MAPE Perc95
Solar < 18% < 30%
Wind < 18% < 30%
Run of River Hydro* < 9% < 30%
* Subject to the determination of the ERC/Grid Management Committee

WESM Rules Clause 3.5.5.11 then require the Market Operator to report to the PEM Board and the DOE the
monthly and annual compliance of each must dispatch generating unit to the forecast accuracy standards
with respect to its projected outputs. As such, this monthly report is being made in compliance to
aforementioned requirement.

This report shall also be including information on the compliance of must dispatch generating units with
the submission of projected output as stated in Clause 3.5.5.5, Clause 3.5.9.1, Clause 3.5.11.3, and Clause
3.5.11.4 of the WESM Rules during the same study period aforementioned.

This report shall also be published in the Market Information Website as provided for in Clause 3.1.2 of the
FAS Manual.

2. Overview on the Calculation of the Forecast Performance

As previously stated, the Forecast Performance of must dispatch generating units are evaluated based on
MAPE and Perc95, where both are calculated over a specific study period.

MAPE and Perc95 are collective measures that are based on the Hourly Forecast Percentage Errors.

2.1. Calculating the Hourly Forecast Percentage Error

For each trading interval, the must dispatch generating unit’s accuracy is measured by calculating the
Forecast Percentage Error using the following formula.

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

PQi,t - MQi,t
FPEi,t = | | x 100%
ICQi

Where:
FPEi,t refers to the Forecast Percentage Error (in %) of must dispatch generating unit i for trading
interval t
PQi,t refers to the Projected Quantity (in MWh) of must dispatch generating unit i for trading interval
t. It shall be computed as follows.
ILi,t + POi,t
PQi,t =
2
Where:
ILi,t refers to the Initial Loading (in MW) of must dispatch generating unit i used in
the scheduling process for trading interval t
POi,t refers to the Projected Output (in MW) of must dispatch generating unit i used
in the scheduling process for trading interval t

MQi,t refers to the Metered Quantity (in MWh) of must dispatch generating unit i for trading interval
t as provided by the Metering Services Provider
ICQi,t refers to the Installed Capacity Quantity (in MWh) of must dispatch generating unit i for trading
interval t. It is calculated as the installed capacity (in MW) of must dispatch generating unit i
provided during registration in the WESM by the duration of a trading interval (in hours)

2.2. Calculating the Mean Absolute Percentage Error

The MAPE is the average of the Forecast Percentage Errors for a given period. It is calculated as follows.

n
p
∑t=1 FPEi,t
MAPEi,p =
np

Where:
MAPEi,p refers to the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (in %) of must dispatch generating unit i for
period p
FPEi,t refers to the Forecast Percentage Error (in %) of must dispatch generating unit i for trading
interval t
np refers to the number of trading intervals within period p wherein forecast percentage errors were
calculated

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

2.3. Calculating the Perc95

The Perc95 of a must dispatch generating unit for a period shall refer to the value (in %) not exceeding 95%
of the forecast percentage errors of the must dispatch generating unit during the period and shall be
calculated using the NIST method.

For a more detailed explanation of the NIST Method, please refer to Appendix A of the FAS Manual.

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

3. Results of Forecast Performance for June 2021

This report covers the must dispatch generating units’ forecast performance in 2021 as of June 2021 (26
December 2020 until 25 June 2021). Included in this report are the exclusions due to Market Intervention
and SO restrictions on the must dispatch generating units’ output.

As of 25 June 2021, there are 64 generators registered as must-dispatch generating units in the WESM.
One Solar generating unit was added for Luzon, Solar Ace.

Table 2. Summary of WESM Registration on Must Dispatch Generating Units as of 25 June 2021
Technology No. of Luzon Resources No. of Visayas Resources

Run of River Hydro 15 1

Solar 29 12

Wind 5 2

Total 49 15

The following table lists the aggregate performance of must dispatch generating units per grid (or region)
and per technology. From the table, both standards were met by all technologies in each region.

Table 3. Aggregate Performance of Must Dispatch Generating Units per Region/Technology

MAPE PERC95

Technology Region Actual Performance, % Actual Performance, %

Threshold, % Threshold, %
2020 20211 2020 20212

Run of River
Luzon < 9% 2.42% 2.93% < 30% 9.22% 5.94%
Hydro

Solar Luzon < 18% 3.67% 3.94% < 30% 14.98% 16.81%

Wind Luzon < 18% 6.18% 5.84% < 30% 18.29% 17.80%

Run of River
Visayas < 9% -- 2.98% < 30% -- 16.24%
Hydro

Solar Visayas < 18% 3.48% 3.89% < 30% 15.40% 17.93%

Wind Visayas < 18% 8.52% 7.70% < 30% 25.17% 21.86%

1 MAPE Performance as of June 2021 (26 December 2020 to 25 June 2021)

2 PERC95 Performance as of June 2021 (26 December 2020 to 25 June 2021)

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

As of June 2021, a significant increase in the number of generating units that were able to meet the
minimum requirement for both MAPE and PERC95 was observed as compared to the previous year.

Table 4. Must Dispatch Generating Units that Met Forecast Accuracy Standards
MAPE PERC95

No. of No. of Resources No. of Resources

Technology Threshold, Threshold,
Resources Within Threshold Within Threshold
% %
2020 20213 2020 20214

Run of River
16 < 9% 7 10 < 30% 7 10
Hydro

Solar 41 < 18% 37 39 < 30% 16 25

Wind 7 < 18% 7 7 < 30% 3 4

The actual individual performance of each must dispatch generating units are provided in Table 5 and Table
6 of this document.

3 No. of resources within MAPE Threshold as of June 2021 (26 December 2020 to 25 June 2021)
4 No. of resources within PERC95 Threshold as of June 2021 (26 December 2020 to 25 June 2021)

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

4. Compliance to the Submission of Projected Output for Must Dispatch Generating Units in June 2021

Although the compliance to submit Projected Outputs is not required to be measured in the FAS Manual,
this report opted to include the current state of such a compliance by the must dispatch generating units.

The following table shows the number of times each must dispatch generating unit actually submitted a
projected output in the WESM for its actual generation output. It was calculated using the following formula
for each must dispatch generating unit i.

No. of times With Projected Output AND Actual Generationi

%Compliancei =
No. of times with Actual Generationi

Table 5. Summary of Compliance to the Submission of Projected Output for Must Dispatch Generating
Units

2021
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
BAKSIP 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
BAKUN 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
BINENG 100% 99% 91% 100% -- 99%
IRISAN 1 92% 98% 90% 100% 77% 98%
IRISAN 3 92% 100% 84% 100% 83% 98%
SABANGAN 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SAL-ANGAN 100% -- -- -- -- --
SMITH BELL HYDRO 100% 100% 99% 99% -- --
BALUGBOG HEPP 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 84% 84% 83% 82% 84% 80%
CALIBATO HEPP 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
UPPER LABAYAT HYDRO -- --
SUWECO HYDRO 94% 99%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON
ARMENIA SOLAR 98% 100% 97% 93% 94% 94%
BOSUNG 77% 100% 99% 99% 96% 96%
BATAAN SOLAR 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BULACAN SOLAR 99% 100% 99% 98% 97% 97%
BURGOS PHASE 1 85% 90% 87% 87% 91% 88%
BURGOS PHASE 2 85% 83% 87% 87% 86% 86%
CABANTUAN SOLAR 91% 94% 94% 90% 87% 87%
CLARK SOLAR 98% 98% 95% 93% 94% 96%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 100% 87% 56% 80% 87% 88%
DALAYAP 98% 100% 96% 94% 94% 94%

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

2021
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
GIGASOL 100% 74% 86%
MIRAE ASIA 98% 100% 98% 96% 93% 94%
MARIVELES SOLAR 98% 100% 98% 94% 93% 94%
PETROSOLAR 1 98% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97%
PETROSOLAR 2 98% 85% 95% 97% 90% 93%
RASLAG 1 100% 98% 97% 95% 93% 93%
RASLAG 2 100% 99% 98% 95% 88% 89%
SPARC BULACAN 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SUBIC SOLAR 100% 100% 98% 95% 93% 94%
YH GREEN 100% 99% 97% 89% 86% 90%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
ECOPARK SOLAR 100% 100% 97% 92% 87% 88%
ECOPARK TAGALAG 86% 78%
SM NORTH 100% 100% 99% 99% 96% 96%
VALENZUELA SOLR 100% 100% 99% 94% 91% 89%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 84% 83% 80% 73% 72% 72%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 97% 97% 95% 95% 93% 93%
MAJESTICS 93% 89% 20% 88% 85% 83%
SOLAR ACE 90%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 90% 91% 92% 92% 92% 92%
SULU ELECTRIC 92% 91% 97% 98% 93% 94%
TOLEDO SOLAR 98% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99%
HELIOS 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98%
MANAPLA SOLAR 99% 100% 100% 97% 99% 97%
MONTE SOLAR 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 95%
SACASOL 1 100% 100% 100% 97% 98% 99%
SACASOL 2 100% 100% 100% 98% 98% 99%
SACASUN 92% 92% 95% 100% 97% 100%
SILAY SOLAR 100% 99% 100% 99% 99% 97%
COSMO SOLAR 89% 87% 93% 92% 91% 94%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 100%
CAPARISPISAN 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
NORTHWIND 1 92% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
NORTHWIND 2 41% -- 100% 100% 100% 100%
PILILIA WIND 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
PETROWIND 98% 98% 96% 100% 100% 97%
SAN LORENZO 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

5. Updated MAPE Performance for Each Must Dispatch Generating Unit

The following table shows the running MAPE as of June 2021. Running MAPE shall always start from 26
December of a certain year.

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20215
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 3.48% 1.73%
BAKSIP 3.20% 1.83%
BAKUN 1.40%
BINENG 4.41% 1.76%
IRISAN 1 31.15% 16.30%
IRISAN 3 4.13% 1.42%
SABANGAN 2.12% 1.48%
SAL-ANGAN 1.54% 0.11%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 2.62% 1.97%
BALUGBOG HEPP 68.47% 83.78%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 11.33% 17.58%
CALIBATO HEPP 18.43% 30.85%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 99.14% 90.17%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 40.86% 60.61%
UPPER LABAYAT HYDRO 0.00%
SUWECO HYDRO 3.24%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON
ARMENIA SOLAR 7.55% 6.07%
BOSUNG 38.16% 32.99%
BATAAN SOLAR 17.25% 17.03%
BULACAN SOLAR 6.14% 6.00%
BURGOS PHASE 1 6.46% 6.66%
BURGOS PHASE 2 5.80% 5.58%
CABANATUAN SOLAR 7.07% 7.29%
CLARK SOLAR 5.61% 6.21%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 7.78% 7.09%
DALAYAP 5.99% 5.55%
GIGASOL 6.63%
MIRAE ASIA 5.25% 4.47%
MARIVELES SOLAR 8.06% 5.88%
PETROSOLAR 1 6.67% 5.77%
PETROSOLAR 2 8.52% 8.09%

5 MAPE Performance as of June 2021 (26 December 2020 to 25 June 2021)

For the case of Sparc Bulacan, which is currently on testing and commissioning, its maximum output for the year
2019 was used as the Installed Capacity Quantity (ICQ) in calculating Forecast Percentage Error

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20215
RASLAG 1 6.79% 6.15%
RASLAG 2 6.64% 5.45%
SPARC BULACAN 17.66% 19.03%
SUBIC SOLAR 4.37% 7.24%
YH GREEN 4.94% 4.79%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 16.39% 16.23%
ECOPARK SOLAR 6.26% 5.56%
ECOPARK TAGALAG 6.75%
SM NORTH 7.12% 7.55%
VALENZUELA SOLR 6.44% 6.26%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 7.51% 6.42%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 14.01% 8.34%
MAJESTICS 4.90% 5.61%
SOLAR ACE 3.96%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 7.27% 7.66%
SULU ELECTRIC 8.14% 5.92%
TOLEDO SOLAR 8.81% 8.12%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 5.05% 4.53%
HELIOS 8.91% 9.86%
MANAPLA SOLAR 4.64% 4.48%
MONTE SOLAR 4.83% 4.73%
SACASOL 1 4.31% 4.15%
SACASOL 2 4.85% 4.71%
SACASUN 4.26% 4.77%
SILAY SOLAR 7.49% 7.24%
COSMO SOLAR 1.72% 0.80%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 8.65% 8.74%
CAPARISPISAN 6.37% 6.52%
NORTHWIND 1 9.01% 9.36%
NORTHWIND 2 8.66% 6.01%
PILILIA WIND 15.79% 17.08%
PETROWIND 17.18% 13.07%
SAN LORENZO 8.38% 8.16%

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

6. Updated Perc95 Performance for Each Must Dispatch Generating Unit

The following table shows the running Perc95 for as of June 2021. Running Perc95 shall always start from
26 December of a certain year.

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20216
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 14.30% 8.43%
BAKSIP 8.94% 7.40%
BAKUN 5.49%
BINENG 22.76% 8.17%
IRISAN 1 89.42% 89.96%
IRISAN 3 18.61% 6.25%
SABANGAN 7.47% 4.95%
SAL-ANGAN 7.34% 0.41%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 15.43% 10.18%
BALUGBOG HEPP 88.62% 98.29%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 86.65% 81.71%
CALIBATO HEPP 50.82% 51.10%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 121.52% 100.00%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 71.51% 73.84%
UPPER LABAYAT HYDRO 0.00%
SUWECO HYDRO 16.64%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON
ARMENIA SOLAR 37.93% 27.99%
BOSUNG 98.95% 98.64%
BATAAN SOLAR 66.86% 66.66%
BULACAN SOLAR 31.29% 25.65%
BURGOS PHASE 1 29.47% 31.81%
BURGOS PHASE 2 27.95% 27.30%
CABANATUAN SOLAR 35.80% 36.01%
CLARK SOLAR 26.16% 29.44%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 34.95% 33.80%
DALAYAP 32.18% 25.80%
GIGASOL 29.95%
MIRAE ASIA 25.28% 19.13%
MARIVELES SOLAR 41.89% 28.94%
PETROSOLAR 1 32.71% 27.81%
PETROSOLAR 2 39.89% 35.04%

6
PERC95 Performance as of June 2021 (26 December 2020 to 25 June 2021)
For the case of Sparc Bulacan, which is currently on testing and commissioning, its maximum output for the year
2019 was used as the Installed Capacity Quantity (ICQ) in calculating Forecast Percentage Error

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20216
RASLAG 1 31.49% 30.51%
RASLAG 2 30.37% 26.80%
SPARC BULACAN 70.32% 73.51%
SUBIC SOLAR 20.29% 35.25%
YH GREEN 21.25% 21.45%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 65.54% 64.32%
ECOPARK SOLAR 29.40% 26.23%
ECOPARK TAGALAG 33.11%
SM NORTH 24.60% 24.73%
VALENZUELA SOLR 30.28% 29.60%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 33.88% 28.61%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 63.32% 40.18%
MAJESTICS 21.88% 25.81%
SOLAR ACE 24.59%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 34.90% 36.49%
SULU ELECTRIC 36.02% 28.03%
TOLEDO SOLAR 43.93% 39.16%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 24.45% 21.77%
HELIOS 38.98% 41.77%
MANAPLA SOLAR 21.75% 21.21%
MONTE SOLAR 21.43% 21.02%
SACASOL 1 20.38% 18.78%
SACASOL 2 22.35% 20.93%
SACASUN 18.96% 22.51%
SILAY SOLAR 41.69% 36.57%
COSMO SOLAR 7.72% 3.62%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 26.98% 28.23%
CAPARISPISAN 22.14% 20.84%
NORTHWIND 1 34.20% 34.61%
NORTHWIND 2 33.26% 26.65%
PILILIA WIND 48.51% 50.77%
PETROWIND 48.55% 38.51%
SAN LORENZO 29.67% 24.67%

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

7. Results of Simulation on FAS Compliance using the Proposed Changes

In this report, IEMOP has prepared a set of results measuring the performance of must-dispatch generating
units in accordance with the “Forecast Accuracy Standards (FAS) Manual for Must Dispatch Generating
Units” considering the following revised methodology.

a. Exclude intervals where both the projected output and metered quantity is zero (0) MW.
b. In the calculation of the FPE, the registered capacity is replaced with the dependable capacity,
which is based on the maximum MQ for the month.
c. The maximum FPE shall be set to 100%.

The objective of this simulation is to show the forecast performance of must dispatch generating units on
periods it had an impact on the WESM and on the power system, as well as to gauge it with reference of
the dependable capacity.

The following sections (7.1 and 7.2) show the results of the simulation.

7.1. Results of Simulation - MAPE Performance

The following table shows the running MAPE as of June 2021 as per this simulation. Running MAPE shall
always start from 26 December of a certain year.

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20217
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 5.54% 4.13%
BAKSIP 5.07% 3.92%
BAKUN 2.36%
BINENG 6.75% 8.52%
IRISAN 1 52.26% 76.40%
IRISAN 3 6.65% 10.02%
SABANGAN 2.83% 2.17%
SAL-ANGAN 4.47% 4.00%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 13.05% 5.27%
BALUGBOG HEPP 73.63% 78.92%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 58.20% 28.90%
CALIBATO HEPP 66.50% 74.95%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 74.53% 73.74%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 76.11% 81.47%

7
MAPE Performance as of June 2021 (26 December 2020 to 25 June 2021).
For the case of Sparc Bulacan, which is currently on testing and commissioning, its maximum output for the year
2019 was used as the Installed Capacity Quantity (ICQ) in calculating Forecast Percentage Error

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20217
UPPER LABAYAT HYDRO 0.00%
SUWECO HYDRO 4.46%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON
ARMENIA SOLAR 15.42% 11.95%
BOSUNG 109.30% 72.31%
BATAAN SOLAR 42.93% 43.01%
BULACAN SOLAR 15.53% 14.92%
BURGOS PHASE 1 14.46% 14.20%
BURGOS PHASE 2 14.84% 13.86%
CABANATUAN SOLAR 15.54% 15.89%
CLARK SOLAR 12.47% 13.62%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 24.95% 14.16%
DALAYAP 11.76% 10.62%
GIGASOL 14.60%
MIRAE ASIA 10.04% 8.50%
MARIVELES SOLAR 17.27% 12.45%
PETROSOLAR 1 17.27% 14.34%
PETROSOLAR 2 17.96% 16.56%
RASLAG 1 16.58% 14.55%
RASLAG 2 19.49% 13.93%
SPARC BULACAN 38.72% 40.05%
SUBIC SOLAR 11.66% 10.84%
YH GREEN 11.05% 10.81%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 41.30% 42.14%
ECOPARK SOLAR 13.34% 12.08%
ECOPARK TAGALAG 16.83%
SM NORTH 18.80% 21.96%
VALENZUELA SOLR 13.13% 12.88%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 15.29% 12.96%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 27.58% 16.13%
MAJESTICS 14.18% 17.71%
SOLAR ACE 12.99%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 14.68% 15.41%
SULU ELECTRIC 20.48% 14.67%
TOLEDO SOLAR 18.07% 16.86%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 11.08% 9.33%
HELIOS 17.60% 19.91%
MANAPLA SOLAR 9.47% 9.20%
MONTE SOLAR 10.56% 10.16%
SACASOL 1 9.73% 9.53%
SACASOL 2 10.38% 10.12%

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20217
SACASUN 17.30% 12.65%
SILAY SOLAR 14.77% 14.25%
COSMO SOLAR 13.72% 13.27%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 10.07% 9.69%
CAPARISPISAN 7.15% 6.94%
NORTHWIND 1 10.02% 10.34%
NORTHWIND 2 9.71% 7.62%
PILILIA WIND 45.50% 18.92%
PETROWIND 16.68% 15.18%
SAN LORENZO 11.18% 10.63%

7.2. Results of Simulation - Perc95 Performance

The following table shows the running Perc95 for as of June 2021 as per this simulation. Running Perc95
shall always start from 26 December of a certain year.

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20218
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 20.18% 18.87%
BAKSIP 13.47% 14.26%
BAKUN 8.42%
BINENG 30.08% 33.96%
IRISAN 1 93.23% 97.04%
IRISAN 3 27.21% 48.29%
SABANGAN 9.04% 8.10%
SAL-ANGAN 16.17% 21.25%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 55.36% 19.09%
BALUGBOG HEPP 90.34% 91.29%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 155.04% 98.38%
CALIBATO HEPP 93.68% 92.22%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 90.47% 87.52%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 94.36% 92.92%
UPPER LABAYAT HYDRO 0.00%
SUWECO HYDRO 20.38%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON

8
PERC95 Performance as of June 2021 (26 December 2020 to 25 June 2021).
For the case of Sparc Bulacan, which is currently on testing and commissioning, its maximum output for the year
2019 was used as the Installed Capacity Quantity (ICQ) in calculating Forecast Percentage Error

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20218
ARMENIA SOLAR 53.66% 39.27%
BOSUNG 169.75% 100.00%
BATAAN SOLAR 92.69% 92.83%
BULACAN SOLAR 54.01% 43.60%
BURGOS PHASE 1 43.30% 44.68%
BURGOS PHASE 2 45.66% 43.70%
CABANATUAN SOLAR 51.91% 49.09%
CLARK SOLAR 41.61% 45.10%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 76.62% 57.83%
DALAYAP 46.33% 36.02%
GIGASOL 45.77%
MIRAE ASIA 39.15% 25.86%
MARIVELES SOLAR 64.50% 43.19%
PETROSOLAR 1 51.82% 44.61%
PETROSOLAR 2 53.11% 49.32%
RASLAG 1 48.77% 46.11%
RASLAG 2 56.63% 45.17%
SPARC BULACAN 87.72% 88.41%
SUBIC SOLAR 35.88% 34.20%
YH GREEN 31.80% 30.47%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 92.55% 91.35%
ECOPARK SOLAR 41.34% 36.93%
ECOPARK TAGALAG 56.37%
SM NORTH 42.27% 46.25%
VALENZUELA SOLR 39.95% 39.52%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 47.52% 35.49%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 74.28% 50.39%
MAJESTICS 42.62% 64.03%
SOLAR ACE 41.20%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 44.72% 47.42%
SULU ELECTRIC 56.22% 43.41%
TOLEDO SOLAR 58.60% 55.88%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 34.03% 30.01%
HELIOS 50.21% 58.17%
MANAPLA SOLAR 31.74% 29.29%
MONTE SOLAR 30.88% 29.10%
SACASOL 1 31.57% 28.45%
SACASOL 2 32.08% 28.69%
SACASUN 46.74% 37.97%
SILAY SOLAR 57.29% 45.41%
COSMO SOLAR 39.71% 38.96%

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 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of June 2021

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2020 20218
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 30.10% 30.90%
CAPARISPISAN 24.67% 22.06%
NORTHWIND 1 37.38% 37.62%
NORTHWIND 2 36.86% 31.93%
PILILIA WIND 248.31% 55.80%
PETROWIND 45.00% 43.85%
SAN LORENZO 37.07% 29.94%

Page 18 of 18