A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s degree in

Finance from the Nova School of Business and Economics.

HOW CAN THE USAGE OF DATA ANALYTICS HELP FOOTBALL CLUBS CREATE

A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: A RESEARCH ON LIVERPOOL FOOTBALL CLUB

BERNARDO BAPTISTA DA COSTA PINTO, 41553

Work project carried out under the supervision of:

Professor Francisco Queiró

04-01-2021

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Abstract: Given the huge complexity of the sport, clubs need to seek for contemporary

approaches to the usage of data to improve the club’s overall performance. The purpose of this

thesis is to understand how data science is shaping the decision-making of football clubs and

how can clubs leverage on the power of data to gain a competitive edge in an extremely

challenging industry. Further analysis on Liverpool F.C. suggests that indeed data analytics had

an impact in its successful stride for silverware, with notorious improvements both sportingly

and financially, however this might have been influenced by other factors.

Keywords: Data analytics, big data, decision-making, competitive advantage, football clubs,
performance, tactics, revenues, player negotiations, player evaluation, brand value, injury
prevention, social media, Liverpool F.C., Premier League, Fenway Sports Group

This work used infrastructure and resources funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a
Tecnologia (UID/ECO/00124/2013, UID/ECO/00124/2019 and Social Sciences DataLab,
Project 22209), POR Lisboa (LISBOA-01-0145-FEDER-007722 and Social Sciences
DataLab, Project 22209) and POR Norte (Social Sciences DataLab, Project 22209).

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Table of contents
1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 TOPIC PRESENTATION AND PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION............................................................................ 3
2. LITERATURE REVIEW................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 TACTICS ....................................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1.1. Positional Data ................................................................................................................................... 4
2.2 TRAINING ..................................................................................................................................................... 5
2.2.1 Skill Development ................................................................................................................................ 5
2.2.2 Injury prevention ................................................................................................................................. 6
2.3 PLAYER RECRUITMENT / MARKET VALUE ................................................................................................ 7
2.3.1 Crowdsourcing: Transfermarkt .......................................................................................................... 7
2.3.2 Data Analytics...................................................................................................................................... 7
2.4. MEDIA ......................................................................................................................................................... 8
2.4.1. Social media & Web Apps .................................................................................................................. 8
3. METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................................... 9
4. DISCUSSION.............................................................................................................................................. 11
4.1. BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................................... 11
4.1.1. Fenway Sports Group (FSG) ........................................................................................................... 12
4.2. PERFORMANCE ......................................................................................................................................... 12
4.2.1. English Premier League................................................................................................................... 12
4.2.2. Brand Value...................................................................................................................................... 14
4.3 MEDIA/ FAN ENGAGEMENT ...................................................................................................................... 15
4.3.1. Revenues ........................................................................................................................................... 15
4.3.2 Broadcasting Revenues ..................................................................................................................... 17
4.3.3. Matchday Revenues .......................................................................................................................... 18
4.4. TRAINING .................................................................................................................................................. 20
4.4.1. Injury Prevention ............................................................................................................................. 20
4.4.2. Player Performance .......................................................................................................................... 21
4.5. PLAYER EVALUATION/RECRUITMENT .................................................................................................... 21
4.5.1. Transfer Negotiations ....................................................................................................................... 21
4.5.2 Player Evaluation .............................................................................................................................. 22
5. LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 23
6. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................ 24
7. REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 26
8. APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................. 34

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1. Introduction

1.1 Topic Presentation and Problem Identification

Football clubs are no longer just clubs but rather big businesses with the ability to

generate massive revenues (Muller, Simons & Weinmann, 2017). Yet, there is a big

implication: winning (Schumaker, Solieman & Chen, 2010). Given the huge competitive

environment, the ability to translate the collected information into meaningful data (Bierly,

Kessler & Christensen, 2000) and build relationships within the data collected (Barlas, Ginart

& Dorrity, 2005) will enable clubs to enhance their productivity and build-up on innovative

strategies (O’Reilly & Knight, 2007).

Analytics, in some form or another, have always been a part of sports (Wasserman et

al., 2018). This ranges all the way from the most basic form of statistics, such as the scoreboard

of the game or the classification table, and traces back to the first documentations in sports

history. With the growing popularity for sports over the years, professionals have sought of

ways to enhance performance and develop their understanding of the game (Raabe & Memmert,

2018), with football clubs aiming to revolutionize older practices (Schumaker, Solieman &

Chen, 2010) as they try to gain knowledge in order to stay ahead of the competition.

Until recent years, sports organizations relied on human expertise for decision-making:

coaches, managers and scouts’ ability to translate the data into knowledge (Schumaker,

Solieman & Chen, 2010) that would then be used to educate the players on the pitch.

Consequently, the data collection and translation would result in a very time-consuming

procedure. However, with the growth of information technology aligned with the rise of big

data, very large amounts of data are being generated daily, leading to a need for more advanced

methods to treat and analyse data for those seeking a competitive edge. Alternatively, complex

algorithms are now the ground for investigation of these huge data sets (Raabe & Memmert,

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2018), by ensuring a more efficient and precise tactical and performance analysis which allows

teams to cope with the complexity and dynamics of the game (Garganta, 2009).

2. Literature Review

2.1 Tactics

In football, amongst some of the most important decisions to be made in order to build

a winning strategy is in regard to the design of effective tactics (Schumaker, Solieman & Chen,

2010). In the past, managers had limited access to data and would solely rely on basic statistics,

and allied with their experience and their instinct, they would try to construct a winning

formation (Lewis, 2003). This approach, however, would sometimes counter-act against the

patterns hidden in the data and would lead to a misinterpretation of the opposing team’s game

plan. Today, with the usage of data analytics, teams are now able to track performance more

thoroughly, detect trend and patterns and study each team’s strengths and weaknesses (Dong &

Calvo, 2007). With a quantum leap in the fields of video-recording and wearable technology,

combined with the ability to store and process huge amounts of data almost instantly, clubs are

now able to record every movement happening on the pitch and every interaction between the

players and the ball (Gudmundsson & Wolle, 2013).

2.1.1. Positional Data

With tactics becoming increasingly important to create a superior advantage, positional

data allows football analysts to break down the game into several pieces, helping managers

configurate tactics more precisely (Raabe & Memmert, 2018). Once tactical focal features are

identified, the management team is able to optimize the performance by transforming the data

into actionable information (Schumaker, Solieman & Chen, 2010) which can be used to

anticipate the opponent’s moves and exploring their weaknesses as well as conditioning their

strengths. Moreover, an accurate usage of the data collected can help the performance by

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adjusting the selection of the players who possess the specific abilities required for each game

(Vilar, Araújo, Davids & Bar-Yam, 2013) and consequently influencing tactical creativity on

goal scoring (Kempe & Memmert, 2018). Notwithstanding, machine learning has the ability to

learn patterns and trends from the historical data collected and apply its knowledge to

unforeseen data in an on-demand basis (Chen & Chau, 2004), allowing managers to adapt their

tactics during the game to unforeseen events.

2.2 Training

Training is a crucial step in the implementation of the manager’s strategy, and as the

volumes of data rise exponentially, clubs also leverage on this data for the development of

effective training routines (Raabe & Memmert, 2018). The facilitation in the recording and

analysis of sports behaviours (Garganta, 2009) with the help of computer vision and wearable

GPS technology can assist in training (Wu et al., 2020) by allowing coaches to collect data on

physical, technical and tactical player, as well as team performance, which will help the

coaching staff correct training processes (Raabe & Memmert, 2018) and meet the demands of

a competitive environment. Nowadays, as the game of football evolves, players differentiate

themselves through their tactical and technical skills rather than their physical and physiological

characteristics (Kannekens & Visscher, 2011), therefore highlighting the importance that the

usage of data can have on the performance. Moreover, managers will be able to control

workloads and monitor intensity effectively, minimizing the risks of an injury (Jaspers et al.,

2016).

2.2.1 Skill Development

Being widely regarded as one of most important factors for success, training is crucial

in the development of skilled athletic performance (Hodges & Franks, 2002). As the game

evolves in complexity and speed, the ability of players to understand the game (tactical skill) is

of critical importance for players to anticipate and identify problems faster and to have the

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necessary ability to come up with the best response. In order to promptly identify these

situations, the capability of big data to identify trends and patterns will allow players to improve

their decision-making speed (Araujo & Hristovski, 2006), allowing them to prepare in advance

for such circumstances.

However, to excel in these situations’ players will not only require tactical skills for the

identification of these, but also, they must have the necessary technical skill to excel. Given

that training is highly subject to each player’s physique, skill and position on the field (Carling

et al., 2008), the coaching staff, based on the data collected is able to make the necessary

adjustments by developing individualized training drills to focus on specific moments of the

game (Buchheit, 2014). This way, not only the team as a whole is able to improve performance,

but individually, players are able to develop their technical skills and flourish at their specific

functions.

2.2.2 Injury prevention

Until the appearance of data and player monitorization, the medical staff would solely

rely on the physical indicators to determine if the player was fatigued or not (Henriques, 2018).

This approach, however, is subject to human interpretation and error, and in a very competitive

environment, the loss of players to injuries will negatively affect the performance of the team

(Hägglund et al., 2013) and might end up being the key differentiator in the team’s ability to

fulfil its objectives. Immediately, since accumulated fatigue can increase the risk of sustaining

an injury (Bush et al., 2015), clubs have adopted a data-driven approach to tackle this problem,

more precisely GPS technology to monitor the players efforts (Jaspers et al., 2016). This leap

in technology has allowed to identify the optimal levels of intensity in training, which will

consequently result in improved levels of fitness and performance from their players (Buchheit,

2014). In addition, and considering the huge salaries elite players receive, a squad affected by

injuries can represent an enormous financial cost for the club.

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2.3 Player Recruitment / Market Value

Business wise, player transfers represent an essential role in the active management of

the club and rank amongst the most important sporting decisions (Amir & Livne, 2005),

therefore, it is of major importance that clubs not only look for players that are a good fit for

the tactics of the team (Zambom-Ferraresi, Rios & Lera-López, 2018), but also it is crucial that

clubs are able to correctly estimate the players’ market value in order to seek a competitive

advantage. The market value of each player is an estimation of the price at which the club is

willing to trade the rights for a given player (Herm, Callseen_Bracker & Kreis, 2014), and

whereas in the past these have been of the responsibility of experts and scouting teams,

nowadays clubs have sought alternatives to improve precision in player evaluation from which

two have emerged: crowdsourcing and data analytics (Müller, Simons & Weinmann, 2017).

2.3.1 Crowdsourcing: Transfermarkt

Just as football fans began to interest themselves in the evaluation of their favourite

players, Transfermarkt has emerged as the leading online platform where fans are able to judge

each players’ market value in addition to the regular football features such as news and scores

(Muller, Simons & Weinmann, 2017). Given that people are commonly susceptible to a bias,

or even have different levels of knowledge (Lewis, 2003), it would be expected that the values

predicted would be somehow distorted, however, its precision is actually remarkable and very

closely correlated with the experts’ estimates (Lorenz et al., 2011). Immediately, Transfermarkt

has established itself as the major source for market values, as football clubs and studies

continue to trust its reliability for player analysis and recruitment (Franck & Nüesch, 2011).

2.3.2 Data Analytics

Yet, despite being an accurate predictor for the actual value of the player, crowd

estimates are unfavourable for players who are less known, resulting in biased estimations.

Notwithstanding, these values are not updated frequently due to the needed input from its users,

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as opposed to a data driven approach, where the market values can be updated on an every-day

basis (Müller, Simons & Weinmann, 2017). More importantly, the need for data analytics arises

due to the fact that clubs are not able to exploit a competitive advantage during negotiations

due to the fact that this information is of public access for both parties of the deal (Müller,

Simons & Weinmann, 2017). On the contrary, the usage of data analytics will enable football

clubs to evaluate the players internally, allowing them to compete for an advantage during

negotiations. Moreover, it will help managers to precisely identify the players who are more

capable to adapt to the teams given style of play (Bush et al., 2015).

2.4. Media

As sports continue to gather millions of fans, sports industry has recently started to rely

on the usage of data analytics to stay ahead of the competition, and moreover, to optimize fan

experience. While the ultimate goal for any club is winning, doing so will help clubs enlarge

their fan base (Evans & Smith, 2004) and capitalize on the support from their fans to achieve

better results and attract more and better partnerships. According to Business Wire, the global

spectator sports market is expected to yield $139.5 billion in 2020, and with football being the

most popular sport in the world, clubs have the opportunity to exploit the potential of this

market and significantly enlarge their revenues through improved customer experience and new

sponsorship deals. Equipped with data-oriented systems, teams are now able to maximize the

margins from sponsorship negotiations and improve the financial health of the club. According

to Deloitte, it is extremely useful to provide insights on the customers attending the games and

on those watching at home and help remodel the advertisements both on the stadium and at TV

broadcasts in attempt to captivate the identified targets.

2.4.1. Social media & Web Apps

Advances in the field of technology have allowed fans to closely connect with their

favourite organizations (Evans & Smith, 2004) and are now able to almost effortlessly access

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all kinds of information about their favourite players and teams. Not surprisingly, with social

media becoming increasingly popular, sports organizations have the opportunity to build upon

social media platforms to expand their reach and attract more customers to their business

(Scelles et al., 2017). Throughout these platforms, clubs are able to effectively communicate

with a very large audience, and by using data to study the trends and habits of their followers,

teams are able to personalize their marketing tools to better suit the demands of the fans (Scelles

et al., 2017), to improve the quality of the products and services delivered (Byon, Zhang &

Baker, 2013), and to identify new potential targets.

Today, in addition to social media, some clubs have developed web apps that aim to

improve convenience and guide their fans through an unforgettable experience. These allow for

a more convenient way of purchasing tickets and buying club merchandise, which will therefore

result in an expansion on these sources of revenue. Moreover, it enriches the club’s database

with the user provided details, which allows the management to gain important information

about its customers and consequently will allow clubs to build evidence-based initiatives to

improve customer satisfaction and leverage additional income (Williams & Chinn, 2010).

3. Methodology

In order to study the impact that data analytics can have in a football club, I will dive in

deeper into a real case scenario and try to understand if in fact a data driven approach can be a

winning strategy in the search for a competitive advantage in the world of football. It is known

that in 2012 Liverpool Football Club started to integrate the usage of information technology

and data to improve their performance, and ever since, the club from Merseyside has come a

long way from fighting for a top 4 spot in the English premier league, to becoming world

champions and one of the most feared and enthusiastic teams in the globe. Is this, however,

explained by the numbers? Further, we will analyse the metrics as follows:

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 Performance: I will gather data from the official statistics of the English Premier

League to compare the performance of the club in the domestic championship to track the

evolution of the team on the pitch over the years in order to understand if data science has

helped Liverpool obtain better results. Additionally, using data from Brand Finance, I will study

the evolution of the brand value of Liverpool FC while aiming to understand if the club is

successfully being able to deliver superior value since the integration of data analytics.

Media/fan engagement: To track the effectiveness of the adoption of data analytics on

social media, I will compare the number of followers on social media platforms that Liverpool

have gained over the years. Yet, this does not necessarily result in added revenues, so I will also

dive deeper into the sources of revenue, more specifically looking into the three segments of

revenue: Matchday Revenues, Broadcast Revenues and Commercial Revenues. Additionally,

so I will also compare it with the average attendance in the home games to conclude if the club

is successfully advertising and promoting. Moreover, I will look into the partnerships and

understand if since then, the club was able to reinforce its negotiable power and ability to pursue

better contracts. This part of the study will be done using data from the Deloitte Football Money

League.

Training: In order to understand if in fact Liverpool is able to successfully leverage on

the power of the data to control for physical condition and fatigue, I will be comparing the

number of injuries along the past years. Moreover, I will compare the injuries with the number

of games played to ensure a more precise analysis. In order to understand if the players are able

to flourish and improve their skillset when training with Liverpool FC, I will also look into

some of the players’ performances to understand if there is are improvements by comparing

with their performance regarding their previous club. This will be done by comparing individual

player statistics collected from Transfermarkt, and in order to facilitate interpretation we will

select a sample from our database with focuses on the strikers the club has had during the

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seasons of 2004/2005 to 2020/2021. In order to infer these conclusions, I will compare the

number of goal contributions for each player (goals + assists), however, given that this

interpretation can be misleading due to the amount of time played, we divided the goal

contributions per minute played in order to ensure a precise base for comparison.

Player evaluation/recruitment: Using data from Transfermarkt, I will be studying the

transfers of the club, more specifically, the prices at which players were transferred (both

bought and sold) to try and determine if Liverpool FC managed to gain a competitive advantage

in the negotiations. This will be done by comparing the player’s market prices with the transfer

value at the time of the agreement. Moreover, I will also try to understand if the players were

being correctly evaluated by the club by seeing the evolution of their market value since the

purchase. This will enable us to understand the club’s ability in identifying undervalued players

since the integration of data, and to interpret if negotiations were, in fact, settled at a fair price,

or if the club was wrongly pricing its actives.

4. Discussion

4.1. Background

Liverpool Football Club (LFC or Liverpool F.C.) is a professional football club from

the city of Liverpool that competes in the English top division, the Premier League, and widely

recognized as one of the most successful clubs in the history of the sport. Owners of trophy

cabinet that would envy most clubs in the world and a history of tremendous success, ever since

their years of dominance in between the 1970’s and 1980’s, and by consequence of the

increasingly competitive environment, the club was struggling to find the path to glory and had

to seek alternatives in their strive for success (Lichtenthaler, 2020). The acquisition of the club

by the Fenway Group in 2010 aligned with the introduction of a data science team led by Ian

Graham in 2012 represents the face of the change and a new approach towards the management

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of a club that was close to bankruptcy (Lichtenthaler, 2020). With the premier league title in

sight for 30 years, Liverpool F.C. finally managed to get their hands on the silverware this year

and are trying to cement their dominating position in world football with the help of data.

4.1.1. Fenway Sports Group (FSG)

Before acquiring Liverpool F.C., the Fenway Sports Group had already begun its data

revolution in sporting world with the Boston Red Sox (Williams, 2020). In fact, FGS had

already tried to make Billy Beane (the man responsible for Moneyball) the General Manager of

the Red Sox in 2002 (Rice-Coates, 2020), supporting the evidence that the group was focused

on embracing data towards decision-making. Since acquiring the club, the group appointed

Damien Comolli as their first director of football to lead the club towards a data-driven

approach (by indication of Beane), alongside the director of research Ian Graham and the head

of performance analysis Michael Edwards (Addison, 2020). The exponential preponderance

and vision towards data analytics from the group is understood by the appointment of Michael

Edwards, with a past in data science, as the clubs sporting director as of 2016, and widely

considered as one of the masterminds of the club’s revival alongside Ian Graham (Addison,

2020).

Under the ownership of the group, Liverpool F.C. have improved their performance on

the pitch, in which a big part must be attributed towards the Fenway Group and its vision

towards a revolutionary approach to the game of football.

4.2. Performance

4.2.1. English Premier League

By the time that Ian Graham and his team were hired by Liverpool FC, the club were

struggling to win the league for over 12 years, and given that the financial power of the club

wouldn’t allow them to financially compete with their rivals, they had to seek other ways of

developing a competitive advantage. Prior to the data science team’s arrival, Liverpool FC’s

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performance was falling short of the expectations, having only finished top three once in the

last five seasons [Annex 1]. Upon the recommendation of the data analytics team, the

management appointed Jurgen Klopp as the new manager in 2015. Jurgen Klopp, the man

responsible for bringing the premier league back to Anfield had finished its spell at Borussia

Dortmund on a very negative note, yet, Ian and his team, when analysing the data identified

that the results didn’t match the performance in most of the statistics (Schoenfeld, 2020).

Disappointment was growing in Liverpool since the Fenway Group acquired the club,

and with an average league standing of 6th place in their first eight seasons running the club

[Annex 1], critics often blamed the poor sporting performance on the management’s approach

towards the usage of data rather than human expertise (Hebert, 2015). In spite of the criticism

surrounding the management of the club, their ability to identify the correct manager that would

complement both his human expertise with the integration of data analytics drove Liverpool FC

to glory (Lichtenthaler, 2020), winning both the Premier League and the Champions League in

consecutive years while setting the two best campaigns in the club’s Premier League history,

with 99 and 98 points, very close from the absolute record of 100 points set by Manchester City

in 2017, and clearly setting themselves apart from their most fierce top 6 rivals [Team

Performance per Season: Premier League].

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 Moreover, by analysing the official Premier League Statistics for Liverpool’s history in

the league (created in 1992/1993), ever since the introduction of data analytics for decision

support systems in the season 2012/2013, the club has registered its best averages in: points,

wins, draws, losses, goals scored and goals conceded [Annex 1]. Given that initially the Premier

League had a total of 42 games as opposed to the current 38 games (as of the 1995/1996 season),

these achievements are even more impressive and hold if we compare the stats per game played.

Additionally, by looking deeper into in-game statistics, data insights provided an added-value

in passing and shooting accuracy, number of big chances created and error leading to goals, yet

this specific data is only available from the 2010/2011 campaign onwards.

4.2.2. Brand Value

As defined by Brand Finance, the brand value of a club encompasses the club’s

trademark and its intellectual property, more precisely, its tangible assets (such as the players,

stadium and its facilities), and its disclosed intangibles with brand value, players developed and

goodwill [Annex 2]. In 2010 the club was going through a rough phase both sportingly and

financially, leading to a need for a change in the ownership. Consequently, the club, which

according to Brand Finance at the time was valued at €191 million was acquired by the Fenway

Sports Group for £300 million (about €349 million) at a time where the football industry was

developing at a fast rate [Annex 3]. Ever since the Fenway Group acquired the club, their brand

value has been steadily increasing, in exception from the season of 2012/2013, which coincides

with a year of slow growth in the sector [Annex 3 & 4]. If we parse the data to investigate the

evolution of the Liverpool brand since the integration of data analytics, upon the arrival of the

team, its value, according to the same source, has had an increase of about 244% and is set at

€1262 million as of 2020, registering an evolution of 560,73% since the acquisition of the

Fenway Group [Annex 5 & 6]. In spite of these being very good indicators of the value-added

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since leveraging on data, we should compare it with the evolution of the football industry as a

whole to understand at which extent the club’s value was riding along from the increased value

of the sport. Looking at the same period of 2012 to 2020, the value of football industry has

increased 133,25%, meaning that Liverpool FC’s practices have enabled them to almost double

the rate at which the sport is evolving [Annex 4]. Consequently, Liverpool FC have registered

one of the most accentuated improvements from the clubs in the top 10 over the past 10 years

[Annex 7], ranking them, according to the same source, the 4th most valuable football team in

the world [Annex 8] and the 4th strongest in the year of 2020 [Annex 9]. By comparing with the

evolution of the top 6 clubs in England, Liverpool F.C. have finally managed to surpass their

rivals’ average on the 2017/2018 season, providing supporting evidence of the management’s

increased ability to maximize the club’s value.

4.3 Media/ Fan Engagement

4.3.1. Revenues

The analysis on the brand valuation over time has indicated that the club is performing

better both financially and sportingly and is managing to add value to the organization, which

is expected to be, in part, explained from its increased ability to boost its revenues. By diving

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deeper into the data collected from the Deloitte Football Money League, it is possible to state

that ever since the data science team started to have preponderance in managerial decisions in

2012, the financial stability of the club has reached a new proportion. If we look at the evolution

of the club’s revenues between the years of 2004-2010 (prior data analytics), the management

of the club was unable to maintain a consistent improvement in their income over time [Annex

10], however, comparing with the big 6’s average the results were similar, suggesting a general

difficulty in maintaining the revenues [Revenues per Season Graph].

In the first year of the Fenway Group’s ownership, its revenues decreased by about 10%

which represents the largest negative change between the years of 2004 to 2019 [Annex 10].

However, ever since 2012, the management of the club has managed to keep a steady

improvement in the club’s revenues, registering positive changes yearly, establishing

themselves since 2017/2018 as the 7th club in the world in respect to its revenues [Annex 10],

and registering an incremental change of about 151% between the years of 2012 to 2019, as

opposed to an incremental change of about 28% between the years of 204 to 2012 [Annex 10].

Although the first years under the new ownership suggested that the club was falling short of

its closest rivals, time and adaptation to a new data-driven approach has allowed the club to

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surpass the average of the top 6 clubs in English football during the 2018/2019 season, and its

very good performance lately suggests that the difference towards its rivals might increase in

future years. We will now divide the sources of revenue into three segments: Matchday,

Broadcasting and Commercial

4.3.2 Broadcasting Revenues

Broadcasting revenues have been fuelled due to the improved performance of the club,

allowing them to participate in European competitions and creating additional sources of

broadcast revenue, which according to Deloitte Football Money League, has allowed the club

to establish themselves as the football club with the highest broadcasting revenues in the world

over the seasons of 2017/2018 and 2018/2019. Indeed, the exposure diverse competitions

creates a larger opportunity to boost these revenues, yet, the broadcast revenue contracts are out

of the control of the management and clubs should therefore focus on maximizing their

revenues on matchday and commercial streams (Deloitte Football Money League, 2020) to

stimulate future growth.

Again, by comparing with the largest 6 clubs in the league, it is to note the negative

impact of the adaptation period caused by the change in ownership in the first year, however,

since then the club’s improved performance on the pitch has been reflected on the broadcasting

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revenues, with special focus on the season of 2018/2019 when the club won the Champions

League [Annex 11].

4.3.3. Matchday Revenues

Matchday revenues are generated from the ticket sales and from hospitality sales during

the home games (Deloitte Football Money League, 2020). Prior the analytics insights, between

the years of 2004 and 2012, an average attendance of 45700 fans at Anfield per game yielded

about €51 million to the club’s accounts, well below the top 6 average [Matchday Revenues per

Season Graph] and amounted to about 25% of the total revenues [Annex 12], meaning that the

club was able to generate, on average, about €1116 per fan during this time frame. If contrasted

with the years between 2012 to 2019, an average attendance of 47786 fans generated about €76

million and the average consumption per fan rose to approximately €1590. This increase in fan

expenditure of about 42,5%, let alone, is a very good indicator of the data’s ability to provide

insights on the customers attending the games in attempt to improve customer satisfaction and

leverage income, moreover, after being unable to continuously improve their numbers during

the years of 2004 to 2012, ever since 2012 Liverpool have been thriving and producing club-

record breaking values yearly, and have managed to exponentially increase their numbers when

compared with the same top 6 clubs [Matchday Revenues per Season Graph].

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 During the season 2018/2019 campaign they were, according to Deloitte, the 5th club in

the world with the largest matchday revenues, generating about €1784 per fan during the season,

and finally surpassing the average values generated by the same 6 largest clubs.

4.3.4. Commercial Revenues

Commercial revenues arise from sponsorship deals, sale of the clubs merchandising and

revenue from other commercial operations such as stadium tours (Deloitte Money League,

2020) and therefore help us understand the club’s ability to promote their brand in attempt to

attract better deals and improve financial health. Ever since 2004, the management has been

able to improve their commercial revenues on a yearly basis (with exception of the season

2009/2010), still, since 2012 the values have erupted, representing an increase of about 85% as

of the year of 2019 [Annex 13]. However, by comparison with the same 6 clubs, in between the

years of 2012 to 2018 we are able to understand that in fact the club was not able to keep up

with its rivals and the significant increase was in part due to a general increase in commercial

revenues [Commercial Revenues per Season Graph].

Yet, the latest figures from the season 2018/2019 show a great leap in commercial

incomes, and in fact, it is expected that Liverpool FC will continue to thrive in this subject and

will collect even higher revenues as the latest 5-year sponsorship deal with Nike set to start in

the 2020/2021 campaign is predicted to surpass $100M per-year according to CNN, and

19
becoming the most expensive sponsorship deal in England. Moreover, the club has a partnership

with Standard Chartered until 2023, and if they manage to keep their good performances on the

field, they will attract more partnerships on the coming years (Brand Finance Football Annual,

2020) and most likely surpass their rivals again.

4.3.5. Social Media

Liverpool FC have managed to capitalize on its powerful brand image and exposure to

continue to attract to new fans to their social media platforms. There has been a consistent and

incremental change in the number of followers across all social media platforms [Annex 14],

with a special attention to Instagram with registered an increase of about 97% since the year of

2018. Still, Facebook is the social media platform which has the highest fan engagement,

surpassing the barrier of the 35 million likes in the year of 2019. Moreover, according to

Newton Insight, for the same year of 2019, Liverpool FC ranked 1st place in the Premier League

for engagement on its YouTube channel, with their Inside Anfield proving a reason why.

4.4. Training

4.4.1. Injury Prevention

Although we expected the number of injuries to decrease after the year of 2012, it has

actually been increasing over the past seasons, with a higher number of injuries per game as

well [Annex 15], and therefore it is difficult to infer conclusions about the perceived value that

data analytics can have on the prevention of injuries. Still, it is to note that data analytics has a

perceived added value in intensity control, which therefore reduces the risk of injuries arising

due to excess effort and not having an impact on contact injuries. Even though we do not have

this information for the past seasons, if we focus on the current season, Liverpool are the club

in the Premier League with the highest number of injuries in the 2020/2021 season with 7

players injured as of December 7th , however only 4 of them are muscular injuries and could be

prevented (LFC Globe, 2020), while the rest arise from unpreventable contact during matches.

20
 4.4.2. Player Performance

If we compare the strikers’ performance with their previous clubs [Annex 16], the names

of the forwards showed in red represent those who were able to improve their performance

since arriving to the club. Out of the players in question, about 42% registered a better average

of goal contributions per minute while playing for Liverpool FC. If we dissect the data to

understand the club’s ability to drive the potential of its players in training from the period

before the introduction of the data science team and after we are able to study its evolution. By

looking at the data prior to the season 2012/2013, an average of about 41,2% of the players

improved their numbers while training with the club. On the other hand, if we look at the period

starting when the data science team’s insights were used for training development (season

2012/2013), this average increases to about 52,6%, and suggesting that indeed this verifies.

Moreover, there is more evidence if we segment this data further and look into the latest 6

seasons. Over this period, the club was able to optimize player performance into a whole new

level, where an average of 77,8% of the players improved their contribution.

4.5. Player Evaluation/Recruitment

4.5.1. Transfer Negotiations

By taking into consideration Annex 17, where the players bought for a sum below their

market value (according to Transfermarkt) are represented in red, a total of 90 player transfers

between the seasons of 2004 to 2020 whose market value was about €1060M, cost Liverpool

FC an amount of approximately €1335 million and resulting in a payment of about €275 million

above its market value. Again, by splitting the data to understand the power of data in providing

a competitive advantage in player negotiations, at first sight, and against what one would

expect, we can understand that a big part of the money paid in excess resulted from the transfers

made between the period of 2012-2020. The total for this period was about €200M (73% out of

the €275M) and resulted in an average of about €4.27M paid extra per player as opposed to an

21
average of about €1.73M above for the years of 2004-2012. Yet, the fact that nowadays players

get traded for much greater values has inflated these numbers, and if we again compare the

same periods, but this time if we divide the average gain/loss per player by the average value

of the players transferred the results are more consistent. This time, on average, Liverpool FC

paid about 21,77% above market value per player for the years of 2012-2020, while for the

years of 2004-2012 the club paid about 18% above market value. Still, the numbers favour the

years prior the arrival of the data science team and we are unable to corroborate our expectations

based on this data, however, it is worth to state that the club has bought players that successfully

led the club to the championship and therefore must be taken into consideration the added value

of these actives.

If instead we analyse the players sold by the club [Annex 18], where the players sold

for a sum above their market value are represented in red, our results favour the data analytics

team. While, on average, Liverpool FC sold their actives for about €1,95M below their market

values for the years of 2004-2012; since then their negotiations have yielded an average of

about €0.15M above their market value. Even though it does not seem a very significant margin,

if we look at the absolute value for the years of 2012-2020, the club has managed to make a

profit of about €6,34M, as opposed to a negative result of €44,75M for the previous period.

Again, we should not forget that through the latest seasons the club has managed to keep its

most valuable players which, if sold, would exponentially improve the results.

4.5.2 Player Evaluation

Out of the players bought by Liverpool FC, those who registered an increase in value

are represented in red [Annex 19]. During the seasons of 2004 to 2020 about 51% of them

increased value since their purchase, about 41% suffered decreases in their market value, while

the rest remaining constant. Again, there is evidence to support the data science team if we

segment the data by the period pre-data and after-data, backed up by a significant improvement

22
on the ability to develop the skills of their players since 2012. By comparing the periods of

2004-2012 and 2012-2020, there is proof to support the data science team, having valued their

actives, on average, about 150% as opposed to about 53% for the seasons of 2004-2012.

Moreover, this might also suggest that actually, the club is managing to precisely price

and identify the real value of the players they are targeting. The fact that on average, the players

that Liverpool FC bought registered an increase in value by about 150%, proves that in fact,

just like expected, data analytics provide a big competitive advantage compared to

crowdsourcing for player recruitment (like Transfermarkt) due to the fact that these are

recurrently outdated. Even though one might be inclined to undervalue the predictive power of

data when comparing only the gain/loss during the transfers (4.5.1), we are now able to

understand that the initial values predicted by crowdsourcing alternatives were below their true

value and therefore resulting in a larger discrepancy between the price paid and their

undervalued market value. Although it suggested that Liverpool overpriced some of their assets,

in fact the club was able to identify undervalued players. A good example could be the forwards

Sadio Mané and Mohammed Salah bought for €41,2M and €40M, respectively, which seemed

a lot of money for players who, according to Transfermarkt were worth €20M and €35M,

respectively, and are currently valued at €120M each.

5. Limitations

The main limitations relate to the fact that Liverpool FC, just like any football club, are

not willing to give complete insights about their procedures in order to protect their competitive

advantage, and therefore complicating our analysis. This has made it impossible to understand

the exact processes behind the development of the club over the past seasons and leading to

measurable alternatives in order to interpret the progression in their championship run. More

23
specifically, the secretive nature behind their strategy for success made it unfeasible to study

their tactical evolution and their ability to analyse their opponents.

Moreover, given that only recently football clubs decided to incorporate the usage of

data in their decision making makes it very hard to find detailed historical data, as well as the

fact that historical data lacks various metrics that are only since recently recorded and would

have been useful for the analysis mainly with regards to team performance and match statistics.

Notwithstanding, in order to have a more precise analysis on the data’s ability in injury

prevention it would have been important to gather information on the latest seasons, and have

detailed information about the injuries in order to understand if these were caused due to excess

effort (which could therefore be prevented), or due to contact injuries.

As explained above during our discussion, the limitations regarding Transfermarkt

market values were notorious, which are not regularly updated and therefore are sometimes not

accurate. This was reflected in the analysis regarding player negotiations, when at first sight it

seemed that Liverpool F.C. was overpaying since 2012, however, when studying the player

evaluation it was possible to conclude that on average these players would increase about 150%

in value, suggesting that their market values were below their real value.

6. Conclusion

Nowadays, the usage of data in sports is not only very important, but rather

indispensable for coaches, players and managers when shaping a strategy for success. By

effectively leveraging on the data, clubs will not only be able to improve their team’s

performance, but they will also be able to attract a larger fanbase and consequently boost

incomes (Zambom-Ferraresi, Rios & Lera-López, 2018).

Throughout out study it was possible to understand that, as expected, after some years

of adaptation to the new ownership of the club and the new approach to the club’s management,

24
there seems to be evidence to state that ever since Ian Graham and his team started working for

Liverpool F.C. in 2012, the club has managed to gradually improve over the years, both

sportingly and financially, even so if such improvements could be influenced by other factors.

The relative underperformance in the first seasons under the ownership of FGS can, in

part, be attributed to the inflexibility of the coach Brendan Rogers to adapt to the new data-

oriented management of the club, and show us the limitations of data analytics when it is not

combined with human expertise (Lichtenthaler, 2020). The arrival of manager Jurgen Klopp in

2015 represents the moment when the club was able to embrace data analytics to its full

potential, and since then the results have considerably improved, having helped the club

cemented their dominant position in English football again. Such is reflected both through the

addition of silverware to the club’s museum, as well as an evolution in their financial

performance that envies their closest rivals.

Still, football is one of the sports whose reliance on information technology and data

science are yet to be exploited to its full potential when compared to other sports who have been

doing so for years. Yet, as good and reliable data sources are starting to revolutionize the way

football is studied and are becoming more accessible (Raabe & Memmert, 2018), clubs are

nowadays starting to understand the added value of this new approach and are slowly adopting

new strategies that account for more data-driven insights for decision-making.

With an ever-growing trend for digital technologies, the development and the study of

these technologies offer a very exciting prospect for the sport in the years to come, and we

might soon see a battle of algorithms, where data analysts become just as decisive as the players

on the pitch (Schumaker, Solieman & Chen, 2010), and it is safe to say that Liverpool F.C. is

on the forefront of innovation, having paved the way for other clubs to adapt their management

towards a data-driven approach.

25
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8. Appendices

Annex 1: Team performance Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

34
Annex 2: Brand Value (Source: Brand Finance Football Annual)

Annex 3: Football Industry Value Evolution (Source: Brand Finance Football Annual)

35
Annex 4: Brand Value Football Industry (Source: Thesis Author)

Annex 5: Brand Value Evolution Liverpool F.C. (Source: Brand Finance Football Annual)

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Annex 6: Brand Value Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

Annex 7: Top 10 Clubs Brand Value Evolution (Source: Brand Finance Football Annual

Review)

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Annex 8: Ranking Brand Value (Source: Brand Finance Annual Review)

Annex 9: Ranking Brand Strength (Source: Brand Value Annual Review)

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Annex 10: Total Revenues Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

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Annex 11: Broadcasting Revenues Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

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Annex 12: Matchday Revenues Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

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Annex 13: Commercial Revenues Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

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Annex 14: Social Media Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

Annex 15: Injuries Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

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Annex 16: Player Performance Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

Annex 17: Player Negotiations: Purchases Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

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Annex 18: Player Negotiations: Sales Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

45
46
Annex 19: Player Value Evolution Liverpool F.C. (Source: Thesis Author)

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48