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MBA-III (2021-22) Machine Test (23-12-2021) For Course Code MB-559 Time:1.30 Hrs Max. Marks-20

This document contains 3 problems related to statistical analysis: 1. An ANOVA test is performed on customer preference ratings for 4 dishes served at a hotel chain to determine the most preferred dish. 2. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model demand for hot water heaters over 15 weeks based on past demand data, and determine how often inventory will be out of stock. 3. Time series data on COVID-19 cases in India is analyzed to develop an optimized forecasting model, which is then used to estimate new cases over the next 7 days.

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Parth Saxena 17IFT010
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31 views3 pages

MBA-III (2021-22) Machine Test (23-12-2021) For Course Code MB-559 Time:1.30 Hrs Max. Marks-20

This document contains 3 problems related to statistical analysis: 1. An ANOVA test is performed on customer preference ratings for 4 dishes served at a hotel chain to determine the most preferred dish. 2. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model demand for hot water heaters over 15 weeks based on past demand data, and determine how often inventory will be out of stock. 3. Time series data on COVID-19 cases in India is analyzed to develop an optimized forecasting model, which is then used to estimate new cases over the next 7 days.

Uploaded by

Parth Saxena 17IFT010
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MBA-III (2021-22)

Machine Test (23-12-2021) for Course Code MB- 559


Time:1.30 hrs
Max. Marks-20

1. This problem relates to the taste/quality of food dishes served to 28


customers in TAJ GROUP Hotel Chain. The customers, who are basically
from the higher income group (HIG), were asked to give their opinion
about the quality/taste of the 4 common non-vegetarian dishes served to
them. The following 4 common dishes served at the above hotel chain’s
restaurant are coded as follows:
CODE DISH NAME
1 DISH 1
2 DISH 2
3 DISH 3
4 DISH4
The Hotel group wants to test, which of the above mentioned dishes is
being preferred by their target customers. At random these 28
respondents were asked their preference on the scale of 10 (1= not liked
at all, 10= most preferred dish) and these data have been tabulated as
under:

(a) Clearly mention the dependent and independent variables in the case
and perform ANOVA. Also, give complete interpretation of the
ANOVA output.

2. Haggins Plumbing and heating maintains a stock of 30-gallon hot water


heaters that it sells to home owners and installs for them. The owner likes
the idea of having large supply on hand so as to meet all customer
demand, but he also recognizes that it is expensive to do so. He examines
hot water heater demand over the last 50 weeks and notes the following:
Hot water heater No. of weeks this number was demanded
demand per week
4 6
5 5
6 9
7 12
8 8
9 7
10 3
1. Find out expected demand for water heaters. (SD of demand=1.91)
2. Use Monte-Carlo simulation to simulate demand for 15 weeks using
the probability distribution of demand.
3. If Higgins maintains a constant supply of 8 heaters in any given week,
how many times will he be out of stock during the 15-week simulation
period.
4. What is the average number of heaters demanded per week over the
15-week interval?

3. Table below shows the data for Corona patients in India (per million) at
specific dates.

Corona Patients in India Per million Date


0.02 05-04-2020
0.02 06-04-2020
0.02 07-04-2020
0.02 08-04-2020
0.03 09-04-2020
0.08 10-04-2020
0.09 11-04-2020
0.1 12-04-2020
0.1 13-04-2020
0.13 14-04-2020
0.25 15-04-2020
0.9 16-04-2020
0.9 17-04-2020
1.16 18-04-2020
1.45 19-04-2020
2.22 20-04-2020
2.38 21-04-2020
3.77 22-04-2020
4.27 23-04-2020
4.77 24-04-2020
5.09 25-04-2020
5.09 26-04-2020
5.94 27-04-2020
7.34 28-04-2020
7.82 29-04-2020
8.98 30-04-2020
9.81 01-05-2020
11.03 02-05-2020

You are required to -


(a) Prepare a scatter plot for the above data. What type of relationship does
your plot suggest?
(b) Using the relationship obtained in part-a, estimate the Corona patients in
India (per million) and obtain Mean Square Error (MSE) as a measure of
forecast accuracy. Further, use Solver to optimize the forecast parameters
and MSE.
(c) With the optimized forecast parameters, estimate the new corona cases in
India for the next 7 days time.

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