Global Climate

Global Climate Change

• Identifiable change in the

climate of Earth as a whole
that lasts for an extended
period of time (decades or
longer)
– When due to natural processes, it
is usually referred to as global
climate variability
– Usually refers to changes forced
by human activities that change
the atmosphere
 What changes climate?

• Changes in:
– Sun’s output
– Earth’s orbit
– Drifting continents
– Volcanic eruptions
– Greenhouse gases
 What causes Earth’s climate to
change?
• Changes in the atmosphere

• Natural processes
– Volcanoes

– Tectonic plate movement

– Changes in the sun

• Human activities – any activity that releases

“greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere
There areWeather
severaland Climate
types of options…
• In common parlance the notions
“weather” and “climate” are loosely
defined.
• The “weather”, as we experience it, is the
fluctuating state of the atmosphere around
us, characterized by the temperature, wind,
precipitation, clouds and other weather
elements.
There areWeather
severaland Climate
types of options…
• “Climate” refers to the average weather
in terms of the mean and its variability
over a certain time-span and a certain
area.

• Classical climatology provides a

classification and description of the
various climate regimes found on Earth.
 The climate
There are of the Earth
several as a whole
types depends on
of options…
factors that influence the radiative balance, such
as for example, the atmospheric composition,
solar radiation or volcanic eruptions.
 To understand the climate of our planet Earth
and its variations and to understand and
possibly predict the changes of the climate
brought about by human activities, one cannot
ignore any of these many factors and
components that determine the climate.
 We
Theremust
areunderstand the climate
several types system, the
of options…
complicated system consisting of various components,

 including the dynamics and composition of the

atmosphere

 the ocean

 the ice and snow cover

 the land surface and its features

 the many mutual interactions between them, and the

large variety of physical, chemical and biological
processes taking place in and among these
components.
Climate System
Natural Climate
There are Variations
several types of options…
1. Natural Forcing of the Climate System

 The Sun and the global energy balance:

The ultimate source of energy that
drives the climate system is radiation
from the Sun. About half of the
radiation is in the visible short-wave part
of the electromagnetic spectrum.
 The Sun and the global energy balance

For a stable climate, a balance is required

between incoming solar radiation and the
outgoing radiation emitted by the climate
system. Therefore the climate system itself
must radiate on average 235 Wm−2 back
into space.
The Sun and the global energy
balance
 Radiative forcing and forcing
variability
• In an equilibrium climate state the average
net radiation at the top of the atmosphere
is zero. A change in either the solar
radiation or the infrared radiation changes
the net radiation. The corresponding
imbalance is called “radiative forcing”.
2. What are greenhouse gases?

Any gases that cause the “greenhouse

effect!”

Imagine… a car on a cool but sunny day…

1.2. Natural Variability of Climate
Internally and externally induced climate variability
Climate variations, both in the mean state and in
other statistics such as, for example, the occurrence
of extreme events, may result from radiative
forcing, but also from internal interactions between
components of the climate system. A distinction
can therefore be made between externally and
internally induced natural climate variability and
change.
Global and hemispheric variability
Climate varies naturally on all time-
scales. During the last million years or
so, glacial periods and interglacials
have alternated as a result of
variations in the Earth’s orbital
parameters.
Global and hemispheric variability
 Based on Antarctic ice cores, more detailed
information is available now about the four full
glacial cycles during the last 500,000 years.
 In recent years it was discovered that during
the last glacial period large and very rapid
temperature variations took place over large
parts of the globe, in particular in the higher
latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
Global and hemispheric variability

These abrupt events saw temperature changes of

many degrees within a human lifetime. In

contrast, the last 10,000 years appear to have

been relatively more stable, though locally quite

large changes have occurred.

Regional patterns of climate variability:

Regional or local climate is generally much

more variable than climate on a hemispheric

or global scale because regional or local

variations in one region are compensated for

by opposite variations elsewhere.

1.3 Human-induced Climate Variations

1.3.1 Human Influence on the Climate System

Human beings, like other living organisms, have

always influenced their environment. It is only since

the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, mid-18th

century, that the impact of human activities has

begun to extend to a much larger scale, continental

or even global.
1.3 Human-induced Climate Variations

1.3.1 Human Influence on the Climate System

Human activities, in particular those involving

the combustion of fossil fuels for industrial or

domestic usage, and biomass burning, produce

greenhouse gases and aerosols which affect the

composition of the atmosphere.

1.3 Human-induced Climate Variations
1.3.1 Human Influence on the Climate System
 The emission of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and
other chlorine and bromine compounds has not only
an impact on the radiative forcing, but has also led to
the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer.
 Land-use change, due to urbanisation and human
forestry and agricultural practices, affect the physical
and biological properties of the Earth’s surface. Such
effects change the radiative forcing and have a
potential impact on regional and global climate.
 Research
• Almost 1000 studies
dealing with different
aspects of climate change
have been conducted and
published
• So… how do we make
sense of all this?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)

• Why was it created?

– Created in 1988 by the
United Nations
Environmental Program
– Established to provide
policy-makers with an
objective source of
information about
climate change
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)

• Who is it?
– Governments
• Members of the UN
• Participate by naming experts and
reviewing the reports before
they’re published
– Scientists
• Close to 1000 scientists
• Climatologists, ecologists,
atmospheric physicists, and others

Dr. Susan Solomon, a NOAA atmospheric chemist,

an IPCC member and one author of IPCC summary
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)

• What do they do?

– Review current scientific and technical literature
relevant to global climate change

– Provide reports on their findings at regular intervals

– Reports are designed to be politically neutral and

of high scientific and technical standards
How do they create their
reports?
It’s a multi-step process…
 IPCC – Words Used in Reports
• When they discuss data:
– Very high confidence to very low confidence that
the data is accurate

• When they discuss the likelihood of something

occurring:
– Virtually certain to exceptionally unlikely
 Observed
Changes and Effects
 Warming of Climate

• Warming of the climate is definitely occurring

and can be observed by the:

– Increases in global sea and air temperatures

– Widespread melting of snow and ice

– Rising global sea level

Temperature Change Data

1880-1884
1886-1890
1880-1884
1896-1900
1906-1910
1916-1920
1926-1930
1936-1940
1946-1950
1956-1960
1966-1970
1976-1980
1986-1990
1996-2000
2003-2007
 Other Observed Changes and Effects
• 89% of current changes in ecosystems are consistent
with changes expected due to global climate change
• Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide levels
in atmosphere have increased greatly due to human
activities since 1750 and now far exceed previous
levels
• Carbon dioxide has increased by approximately
80% since 1970
Human-Produced Greenhouse Gas Levels
Causes of Change
Most of the observed increase in global
average temperature since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the
observed increase in human-caused
greenhouse gas concentrations and
human influences have very likely
contributed to sea level rise, too.
• Warming and sea level rise will continue and will
probably occur more quickly than what we’ve
already seen
• Even if greenhouse gases are stabilized, this will
probably continue to occur for centuries
• Some effects may be permanent
• Effects on Ecosystems

– Coral systems cannot handle higher temperatures well

– Wildfires will increase

– Up to 30% of species will be at increased risk for

extinction due to the rapid changes in their ecosystems
• Effects in North America
– Warming in western mountains: several effects
– Increased rain: will actually help some crops
– Heat waves will increase in number, length, and
intensity
– Coastal communities will be affected by increased
flooding and storms
 Reduceare
•There emissions
severalof greenhouse gases
types of options…
• Attempt to develop alternatives energies
• Allow emission to continue, but prepare
for global climate changes
• Allow emissions to continue as normal and
leave preparations up to individual
countries
• Combine any of these ideas
• Come up with your own unique plan!