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Lecture Notes 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics: Reading (Bluman: Chapter 1)

This document provides an overview of key concepts in probability and statistics. It discusses [1] descriptive versus inferential statistics, [2] variables and data types, [3] data collection and sampling techniques, [4] observational versus experimental studies, and [5] proper versus improper uses of statistics. The goal of statistics is to analyze data to draw conclusions. Descriptive statistics describes data while inferential statistics generalizes from samples to populations. Variables can be qualitative or quantitative, and data can be discrete or continuous. Common sampling techniques include simple random, systematic, stratified, and cluster sampling. Observational studies observe relationships while experiments manipulate variables to determine causation. Statistics must be used appropriately to avoid misleading conclusions.

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Marco Tung
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59 views24 pages

Lecture Notes 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics: Reading (Bluman: Chapter 1)

This document provides an overview of key concepts in probability and statistics. It discusses [1] descriptive versus inferential statistics, [2] variables and data types, [3] data collection and sampling techniques, [4] observational versus experimental studies, and [5] proper versus improper uses of statistics. The goal of statistics is to analyze data to draw conclusions. Descriptive statistics describes data while inferential statistics generalizes from samples to populations. Variables can be qualitative or quantitative, and data can be discrete or continuous. Common sampling techniques include simple random, systematic, stratified, and cluster sampling. Observational studies observe relationships while experiments manipulate variables to determine causation. Statistics must be used appropriately to avoid misleading conclusions.

Uploaded by

Marco Tung
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Lecture Notes 1

The Nature of Probability and


Statistics
Reading (Bluman: Chapter 1)

1
Outline

1 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics
2 Variables and Types of Data
3 Data Collection and Sampling Techniques
4 Observational and Experimental Studies
5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics

2
Introduction
 Statistics is the science of conducting
studies to
collect,
organize,
summarize,
analyze, and
draw conclusions from data.

3
1-1 Descriptive and Inferential
Statistics
 A variable is a characteristic or attribute
that can assume different values.
 The values that a variable can assume
are called data.
 A population consists of all subjects
(human or otherwise) that are studied.
 A sample is a subset of the population.

4
1-1 Descriptive and Inferential
Statistics
 Descriptive statistics consists of the
collection, organization, summarization,
and presentation of data.
 Inferential statistics consists of
generalizing from samples to populations,
performing estimations and hypothesis
tests, determining relationships among
variables, and making predictions.
(Population parameter and statistics)
5
1-2 Variables and Types of Data
Data

Qualitative Quantitative
Categorical Numerical,
Can be ranked

Discrete Continuous
Countable

6
EXAMPLE Distinguishing between Qualitative and
Quantitative Variables

Researcher Elisabeth Kvaavik and others studied factors that affect the eating
habits of adults in their mid-thirties. (Source: Kvaavik E, et. al. Psychological
explanatorys of eating habits among adults in their mid-30’s (2005)
International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity (2)9.)
Classify each of the following quantitative variables considered in the study as
discrete or continuous.

a. Number of children
b. Household income in the previous year
c. Daily intake of whole grains (measured in grams per day)

7
1-2 Recorded Values and
Boundaries
Variable Recorded Value Boundaries
Length 15 centimeters 14.5-15.5 cm
(cm)
Temperature 86 Fahrenheit (F) 85.5-86.5 F

Time 0.43 second (sec) 0.425-0.435 sec

Mass 1.6 grams (g) 1.55-1.65 g

8
1-2 Variables and Types of Data
Levels of Measurement
1. Nominal – categorical (names)

2. Ordinal – nominal, plus can be ranked (order)

3. Interval – ordinal, plus intervals are consistent

4. Ratio – interval, plus ratios are consistent, true


zero

9
1-2 Variables and Types of Data

Determine the measurement level.


Variable Nominal Ordinal Interval Ratio Level
Hair Color Yes No Nominal
Zip Code Yes No Nominal
Letter Grade Yes Yes No Ordinal
Temperature (F) Yes Yes Yes No Interval
Height Yes Yes Yes Yes Ratio
Age Yes Yes Yes Yes Ratio

10
1-3 Data Collection and Sampling
Techniques
Some Sampling Techniques
 Probability sampling
 Simple Random
 Systematic
 Stratified
 Cluster

 Non-probability sampling
 Convenient

11
Simple Random Sampling
A sample of size n from a population of size N is
obtained through simple random sampling if
every possible sample of size n has an equally
likely chance of occurring. The sample is then
called a simple random sample.

12
Systematic random sampling

A systematic sample is obtained by


selecting every kth individual from the
population. The first individual selected
is a random number between 1 and k.

13
Systematic random sampling

A systematic sample is obtained by


selecting every kth individual from the
population. The first individual selected
is a random number between 1 and k.

14
Stratified random sampling
A stratified sample is one obtained by
separating the population into homogeneous,
non-overlapping groups called strata, and
then obtaining a simple random sample from
each stratum.

15
EXAMPLE Obtaining a Systematic Sample

A quality control engineer wants to obtain a


systematic sample of 25 bottles coming off a
filling machine to verify the machine is working
properly. Design a sampling technique that can
be used to obtain a sample of 25 bottles.

16
Cluster random sampling

A cluster sample is obtained by selecting


all individuals within a randomly selected
collection or group of individuals.

17
EXAMPLE Obtaining a Cluster Sample

A school administrator wants to obtain a sample


of students in order to conduct a survey. She
randomly selects 10 classes and administers the
survey to all the students in the class.

18
19
Convenience sampling

• Uses subjects that are convenient


• Eg. Researcher interview subjects
entering a local mall in a marketing
research
• Non-probabilistic (Sample not
representative of the general
customers)
20
1-4 Observational and
Experimental Studies
 In an observational study, the researcher
merely observes and tries to draw conclusions
based on the observations.
 The researcher manipulates the independent
(explanatory) variable and tries to determine
how the manipulation influences the dependent
(outcome) variable in an experimental study.
 A confounding variable influences the
dependent variable but cannot be separated
from the independent variable.

21
22
23
1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics
 Read Chapter 1.5

24

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