Date of Valuation: Default Assumptions
Date of Valuation: Default Assumptions
Date of Valuation: Default Assumptions
Company name PT Pupuk Kaltim There should be a check against the iteration box. If th
Numbers from your base year below ( in consistent units)
This year Last year
Country of incorporation Indonesia
Industry (US) Farming/Agriculture
Industry (Global) Farming/Agriculture Last 10K Years since last 10K
Revenues $17,043,632.00 $18,966,191.00 1
Operating income or EBIT $2,673,956.00 $3,405,034.00 1
Interest expense $228,263.00 $699,366.00
Book value of equity $22,212,808.00 $18,814,295.00
Book value of debt $4,634,732.00 $8,282,396.00
Do you have R&D expenses to capitalize? No If you want to capitalize R&D, you have to input the
Do you have operating lease commitments? No If you have operating leases, please enter your lease c
Cash and Marketable Securities $1,652,953.00 $4,807,326.00
Cross holdings and other non-operating assets $0.00 $0.00
Minority interests $0.00 $0.00
Number of shares outstanding = 17600000000.00
Current stock price = $0.00
Effective tax rate = 25.00%
Marginal tax rate = 0.00%
The value drivers below:
Revenue growth rate for next year 5.33%
Operating Margin for next year 11.45%
Compounded annual revenue growth rate - years 2-5 = 5.33% Growth Lever
Target pre-tax operating margin (EBIT as % of sales in 11.45% Profitability Lever
Year of convergence 5.00 Speed of convergence level
Sales to capital ratio (next year) 5.00 Efficency of Growth Lever
Sales to capital ratio (for years 2-5) = 5.00
Sales to capital ratio (for years 6-10) 1.50
Market numbers
Riskfree rate 6.29%
Initial cost of capital = 8.57% #DIV/0!
Other inputs
Do you have employee options outstanding? No
Number of options outstanding =
Average strike price =
Average maturity =
Standard deviation on stock price =
Default assumptions.
In stable growth, I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (riskfree rate + 4.5%)
Do you want to override this assumption = No Mature companies generally see their risk levels appr
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 = Though some sectors, even in stable growth, may have
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10. I am assuming that whatever competitive
Do you want to override this assumption = No Mature companies find it difficult to generate returns
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 10 But there are significant exceptions among companies
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure over the foreseeable future.
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they
If yes, enter the probability of failure = 12% Tough to estimate but a key input.
What do you want to tie your proceeds in failure to? V B: Book value of capital, V= Estimated fair value for
Enter the distress proceeds as percentage of book or fair 50% This can be zero, if the assets will be worth nothing if
I will assume that your effective tax rate will adjust to your marginal tax rate by your terminal year. If you override this assumption, I will l
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes
I will assume that you have no losses carried forward from prior years ( NOL) coming into the valuation. If you have a money losing compa
Do you want to override this assumption = No Check the financial statements.
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into year 1 An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even afte
I will asssume that today's risk free rate will prevail in perpetuity. If you override this assumption, I will change the riskfree rate after year 1
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes If yes, you will be asked to enter a normal risk free ra
If yes, enter the riskfree rate after year 10 5.20% Enter your estimate of what the riskfree rate (in your
I will assume that the growth rate in perpetuity will be equal to the risk free rate. This allows for both valuation consistency and prevents "im
Do you want to override this assumption = No This is an option to let you use a negative growth rate
If yes, enter the growth rate in perpetuity This can be negative, if you feel the company will dec
I have assumed that none of the cash is trapped (in foreign countries) and that there is no additional tax liability coming due and that cash is a neutral ass
Do you want to override this assumption No
If yes, enter trapped cash (if taxes) or entire balance (if mistrust) Cash that is trapped in foreign markets (and subject to addi
& Average tax rate of the foreign markets where the cash is trapped Additional tax rate due on trapped cash or discount being a
run this spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
k against the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
w ( in consistent units)
ze R&D, you have to input the numbers into the R&D worksheet.
ases, please enter your lease commitments in the lease worksheet below and I will convert to debt
Computed numbers: Here is what your company's numbers look like, relative to industry.
If you are not working in US dollars, you should add the inflation differential to the industry averages.
Company Industry (US datIndustry (Global data)
Revenue growth in the most recent year = -10.14% -0.77% 6.19%
Pre-tax operating margin in the most recent year 15.69% 6.55% 6.76%
Sales to capital ratio in most recent year = 0.77 1.48 1.22
Return on invested capital in most recent year= 9.12% 7.42%
Standard deviation in stock prices = 45.30% 30.72%
Cost of capital = 4.17% 4.98%
Valuation Output Feedback (for you to use to fine tune your inputs, if you want)
Revenues in year 10, based on your revenue growth = $ 30,025,480
Pre-tax Operating Income in year 10, based on your operating m $ 3,437,917
Return on invested capital in year 10, based on your sales/capital 8.43%
Check the Diagnostics worksheet for more details.
mpanies fail, especially if they have trouble raising cash. Many distressed companies fail, because they have trouble making debt payments.
l, V= Estimated fair value for the company
assets will be worth nothing if the firm fails.
erride this assumption, I will leave the tax rate at your effective tax rate.
eign markets (and subject to additoinal tax) or cash that is being discounted by the market (because of management mistrust)
trapped cash or discount being applied to cash balance because of mistrust.
orporate the change into your stable cost of capital estimate.
debt payments.
own in uncharted territory.
Base year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue growth rate 5.33% 5.33% 5.33% 5.33% 5.33% 5.30%
Revenues $ 17,043,632.00 ### ### ### ### ### ###
EBIT (Operating) mar 15.69% 11.45% 11.45% 11.45% 11.45% 11.45% 11.45%
EBIT (Operating inc $ 2,673,956.00 ### ### ### ### ### ###
Tax rate 25.00% 22.00% 22.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
EBIT(1-t) $ 2,005,467.00 ### ### ### ### ### ###
- Reinvestment 181,685.12 $ 191,368.93 $ 201,568.90 $ 212,312.52 $ 745,429.26 $ 781,330.59
FCFF ### ### ### ### ### ###
NOL $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Implied variables
Sales to capital ratio 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.50 1.50
Invested capital $ 25,194,587 $ 25,376,272 $ 25,567,641 $ 25,769,210 $ 25,981,522 $ 26,726,952 $ 27,508,282
ROIC 7.96% 6.32% 6.61% 7.08% 7.40% 7.57% 7.75%
The Assumptions
Base year Next year Years 2-5 Years 6-10
nue to stagnate/shrink over time, but will see growth from its
r time improve margins and give competitive advantages in what Tell your story about the company. Keep it
focuses on the company's businesses and tie it
into the three key levers of value: cash flows,
growth and risk
tions
After year 10 Link to story
Rebound in 2021, Battery growth
5.20% drives
Marginsoverall company
improve from battery
11.45% business
20.00% Global/Korean marginal tax rate ov
Tie each assumption to the part of your story
Live off past capacity & that relates to it.
52.42% investment for near future
9.92% Competitive advantages in busines
Cost of capital relatively stable,
but failure probability based on
9.92% Ba1 bond rating
ows
Reinvestment FCFF
$181,685.12 $1,421,613.15
$191,368.93 $1,497,385.13 These are the numbers that come from your
$201,568.90 $1,622,805.10 assumptions. The revenues over time reflect
$212,312.52 $1,709,300.62 your revenue growth, the operating margins
$745,429.26 $1,278,605.86 evolve towards your target margin and your
tax rate will change, if you have set it to. The
$781,330.59 $1,350,059.35 reinvestment is estimated using the sales to
$818,739.16 $1,425,145.54 capital ratio for the first 10 years and based
$857,706.15 $1,504,027.38 on a reinvestment rate in stable growth (g/
$898,283.80 $1,586,873.92 ROC).
$940,525.48 $1,673,860.44
$1,441,707.33 $1,308,626.66
e
After-Tax
Year Operating Change in Sales to Reinvestment FCFF Capital Implied
Income Revenues Capital Invested ROC
Cost of Cumulated
Year Capital Cost of FCFF Terminal Value Present Value
Capital
1 8.57% 1.0857 ### $ 1,309,397.76
2 8.57% 1.1787 ### $ 1,270,322.06
3 8.57% 1.2798 ### $ 1,268,051.38
4 8.57% 1.3894 ### $ 1,230,209.56
5 8.57% 1.5085 ### $ 847,593.27
6 8.84% 1.6419 ### $ 822,271.31
7 9.11% 1.7914 ### $ 795,530.69
8 9.38% 1.9595 ### $ 767,565.67
9 9.65% 2.1486 ### $ 738,573.28
10 9.92% 2.3617 ### $ 27,725,141.00 $ 12,448,213.45
Value of operating assets = $ 21,497,728.44
Valuing Options or Warrants
Enter the current stock price = $ -
Enter the strike price on the option = $ -
Enter the expiration of the option = 0.00
Enter the standard deviation in stock 0.00% (volatility)
Enter the annualized dividend yield 0.00%
Enter the treasury bond rate = 6.29%
Enter the number of warrants (option 0.00
Enter the number of shares outstandi ###
d1 = 10.995796
N (d1) = 1
d2 = 9.8052084
N (d2) = 1
Debt
Book Value of Straight Debt = $ 4,634,732.00
Interest Expense on Debt = $ 228,263.00
Average Maturity = 3
Approach for estimating pre-tax cost of debt Actual rating
If direct input, input the pre-tax cost of debt 4.000%
If actual rating, input the rating Baa2/BBB
If synethetic rating, input the type of compan 2
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 8.00%
Tax Rate = 0%
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = ###
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $ -
Value of Debt in Operating leases = $ -
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $ -
Levered Beta for equity = #DIV/0!
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com
For large manufacturing firms
If interest coverage ratio is Rating
> ≤ to Rating is Spread is AAA
-100000 0.199999 D2/D 17.44% AA
0.2 0.649999 C2/C 13.09% A
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 9.97% BBB
0.8 1.249999 Caa/CCC 9.46% BB
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 5.94% B
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 4.86% CCC/C
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 4.05%
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 2.77%
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 2.31%
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 1.71%
3 4.249999 A3/A- 1.33%
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 1.18%
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 1.07%
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 0.85%
8.50 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.69%