2016 Vikalpa Published Paper
2016 Vikalpa Published Paper
Executive This article examines the impact of open market share repurchase announcements on
stock returns in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The main objective is to examine
Summary whether share repurchase announcements under the open market route have any
significant impact on the returns of the stocks traded in the BSE. The article covers the
period from 2009 to 2013. For sample selection, two criteria were used: first, the firm
should have been listed in the BSE for at least 28 trading days before the repurchase
announcement date, and second, the firm should have all relevant data required by this
study. A total of 95 repurchase announcements fulfilled these criteria. The analysis period
extended from –28 to +28 trading days relative to the repurchase announcement date
(t = 0). The findings of the study will help us to understand how the market responds
to share repurchase announcements in India and whether a firm actually benefits by
repurchasing its own shares from the market.
This study uses a standard event methodology based on an ordinary least squares
market model with the aim of finding out whether repurchase announcements generate
any abnormal return around the repurchase announcement date. While applying the
market model for estimating the abnormal returns, the regression is estimated based on
the stock return of the firm and market return of the previous 120 trading days. So, here
the estimation window takes into account 120 observations. Using this, the expected
returns are generated and then the abnormal returns are derived for the event window,
28 days prior to the event date and 28 days after the event date.
The findings of the study indicate that share repurchase announcements do not neces-
KEY WORDS sarily generate abnormal stock returns in the Indian equity market unlike developed
economies like the US, Canada, and Australia. The whole sample is further divided
Share Repurchase into various subsamples on the basis of firm size and size of repurchase. The subsample
analyses reveal that smaller firms do not necessarily experience higher abnormal stock
Open Market Repurchase
returns following repurchase announcements than that of the larger firms. The findings
Market Models weakly support the view that larger repurchase size generates greater abnormal stock
returns than the smaller ones.
Stock Returns
Undervaluation
436 ANOMALOUS PRICE BEHAVIOUR AROUND OPEN MARKET STOCK REPURCHASE ANNOUNCEMENTS IN INDIA
On the other hand, Eberhart and Siddique (2004) find DATA AND METHODOLOGY
lack of consistent evidence of positive stock returns
following repurchase announcements, and opine that In India, firms can repurchase their shares either by
liquidity change is the dominating factor in explaining the tender offer method or through the open market
announcement period’s abnormal stock returns. route. Under the tender offer method, a firm commits
Cook, Krigman, and Leach (2004) also find support to to repurchase a specific number of shares from the
the liquidity hypothesis. Chatterjee and Rakshit (2008) shareholders either at a fixed price or at a price that is
observe that the positive influence of share repurchase arrived at through the book-building process. Under
on stock price is not prevalent in the Indian context in the open market route, firms repurchase their shares
all the repurchase cases as hypothesized theoretically. from the stock market. Here the repurchasing firm does
An analysis of share repurchases during 1999–2003 not commit to buy a specific number of shares and also
in India shows that the actual repurchase price is less there is no commitment on the part of the company
than one half of the maximum price in nearly 50 per regarding the minimum repurchase price. Only the
cent of the cases analysed (Gupta, Jain, & Kumar, 2005). maximum price for repurchase is announced. The
Hertzel (1991) reports that repurchase announcements actual price may vary. The maximum size of repurchase
had little or no effect on the share price of rival firms; the is limited to 25 per cent of the total paid up capital and
information contained in repurchase announcements is reserves of the firm. This study considers only open
primarily company specific. market repurchase programmes.
The regulatory framework around the share The study covered the period from 2009 to 2013.1 For
repurchase activity varies across countries and has sample selection, two criteria were used: first, the firm
significant impact on this activity from different should have been listed in the BSE for at least 28 trading
angles. Repurchase announcement during changes in days before the repurchase announcement date; and
the regulatory framework governing share repurchase second, the firm should have all relevant data required
is linked to positive but statistically insignificant by this study. A total of 95 repurchase programmes
abnormal returns, which is contrary to the evidence fulfilled these criteria. The analysis period extended
of American firms and the researchers are of the view from –28 to +28 trading days relative to the repurchase
that this is possibly because of the overregulated announcement date (t = 0).
share repurchase environment in Australia (Harris
This study covered all the repurchase announcements
& Ramsay, 1995). Rau and Vermaelen (2002)
made through the open market route. The data on
observe that the form and intensity of the share
market return was based on S&P BSE 500, which
repurchase activity in the UK is influenced by the tax
was sourced from the official website of the BSE. The
consequences associated with pension funds. The UK
reason for considering S&P BSE 500 instead of Sensex
firms earn smaller excess returns through repurchase
for computing market return was that most of the
announcements compared to the US firms primarily
repurchasing firms were not part of the Sensex and
because of the regulatory provisions in the UK which
they mostly belonged to the BSE small-cap and the
make it less likely that the firms can disseminate
BSE mid-cap category. The information on repurchase
superior information to repurchase shares under the
announcements were collected from the SEBI website.
situation of undervaluation of stock prices.
The share price data of the sample firms were collected
As pointed out earlier, while several studies have been from the BSE website. Table 1 presents the summary
conducted on share repurchase and its implications on statistics related to the repurchases.
the market as well as on the firms announcing repurchase,
Table 1 shows that 2009 has the highest number (36)
most of the studies have been conducted in developed
of repurchase announcements. The amount of share
nations like the US, the UK, Canada, and Australia. In
repurchase as a percentage of paid-up capital and
India, this area has remained under-researched. There
free reserves ranges between 2.97 per cent and 25 per
is lack of in-depth studies on this corporate activity and
cent over the period of study. The average buyback
its implications for the Indian corporate and the market
size shows a reduction in 2010 (`426.71 million) from
at large. This article is expected to fill up this gap by
the year before (`875.38 million) and then again
contributing to the existing literature with a primary
a substantial increase in the year 2011 (`1,864.72)
focus on the impact of open market stock repurchase
million. Thereafter, a declining trend is evident. In
announcement on stock returns.
Year No. of Repurchase Shares Repurchase as Average Repurchase Size Market Capitalization (` million)
Announcements Percentage of PCFR* Announced (` million)
Mean Median
2009 36 4.7% to 25% 875.38 26659.07 4582.35
2010 13 4.42% to 25% 426.71 6106.65 1419.20
2011 14 8.34% to 25% 1864.72 68106.84 18187.05
2012 22 2.97% to 25% 1027.00 16061.60 5666.35
2013 10 2.09% to 25% 920.00 21615.92 3484.00
TOTAL 95
this context, it is worth noting that almost all the From Equation 1, αj and βj are estimated by running
repurchasing firms have disclosed ‘maximizing OLS on the data pertaining to the estimation window.
shareholders value’ as the primary objective behind Thereafter, using these estimates, abnormal returns for
their repurchase announcements. security ‘j’ at time ‘t’ in the event window is computed as:
AR=
jt
R jt − α j − β j Rmt (2)
This study used the standard event methodology Finally, average abnormal returns (AARs) and
based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) market cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) were computed
model2 with the aim of finding out whether repurchase based on these abnormal returns.
announcements generated any abnormal return around
the repurchase announcement date. In the market model, the expected return is estimated
by regressing the firm’s stock return on market return.
In a market model, under the assumption that The abnormal return is then derived as the difference
asset returns are jointly multivariate normal and between this expected return and the actual return.
independently and identically distributed through While applying the market model for estimating the
time, the model is correctly specified. This model abnormal returns, the regression is estimated based on
establishes a linear relationship between the market the data of the firm and market return of the previous
return and the individual stock return and that follows 120 trading days. So, here, the estimation window took
from joint normality. into account 120 observations. Using this, the expected
returns were generated and then the abnormal returns
Rjt = αj + βjRmt + εjt (1) were derived for the event window, 28 days prior to the
event date and 28 days after the event date. Here the
where E(εjt) = 0 and Var (εjt) = σi2 event date was the announcement date (t = 0). Before
starting the analysis, all the series were tested for
where, stationarity using the Phillips–Peron unit root test. As
expected, both the returns were found to be stationary.
Rjt indicates return on stock j and Rmt implies market
return. The analysis is presented in two ways. First, the
effect of the repurchase announcement around
The equation is estimated using the estimation window the announcement date was measured. To achieve
which is shown as follows: this objective, daily AARs for all stock repurchase
announcements were computed over –28 and +28
A0 + 1 A1 t=0 A2 trading days in response to the announcement date 0.
For each of the days prior to and post announcement,
Here, t = 0 implies the event date (here, the repurchase the hypothesis that return is significantly different from
announcement date); A0 + 1 to A1 is the estimation zero was tested. In addition to that the CARs were also
window and A1 to A2 is the event window. computed over different window ranges. Next, the
438 ANOMALOUS PRICE BEHAVIOUR AROUND OPEN MARKET STOCK REPURCHASE ANNOUNCEMENTS IN INDIA
entire sample was divided into subsamples based on 10 of which, it is statistically significant at 5 per cent level
the size of the firm and the size of repurchase in order to only on day 4. These results do not spell out the existence
examine whether abnormal returns around repurchase of significant abnormal stock returns around repurchase
announcement varied with the firm size and the size of announcements in the BSE. This finding is contrary to
the repurchase. Therefore, the hypothesis that there is the findings of Liao et al. (2005), Comment and Jarrell
difference in abnormal returns between the categories (1991), Ikenberry et al. (1995, 2000), and Balachandran
(firm size and size of repurchase) was also tested. For and Troiano (2000), etc., who observed positive abnormal
firm size, firms were categorized according to their stock return around repurchase announcements.
market capitalization. If market capitalization of the
firm at the time of repurchases announcement fell below
Table 2: Daily Average Abnormal Returns (AARs) Surrounding
`2,000 crore, it was categorized as small-cap. If it was
the Announcement Day
between `2,000 and 10,000 crore, it was called mid-cap;
and if the market capitalization exceeded `10,000 Event days AARs (%) t-value
crore, the firm was classified as large-cap. For size of –10 0.0003 0.093
repurchase, firms were classified as top 25 percentile –9 –0.0003 –0.079
and bottom 25 percentile and also top 50 percentile –8 0.0046 1.242
and bottom 50 percentile firms based on the repurchase –7 0.0087 2.822**
size, defined as the proposed amount to be used for –6 0.0020 0.542
the share repurchase programme as a percentage of –5 0.0089 1.856*
paid up capital and free reserves. Firms could also be –4 0.0038 0.958
categorized into another group based on the announced –3 0.0055 1.665*
motives behind share repurchase announcements. But –2 0.0023 0.611
in the study sample, almost all the firms announced –1 0.0025 0.705
‘maximizing shareholders value’ as the primary motive 0 0.0148 2.56**
behind their repurchase announcements. Hence, such 1 0.0009 0.173
categorization was not followed for this study. 2 –0.0008 –0.215
3 –0.0037 –1.318
4 –0.0070 –2.113**
EMPIRICAL RESULTS 5 0.0013 0.424
6 0.0012 0.368
Abnormal Returns around the 7 –0.0021 0.657
Announcement Date 8 –0.0024 –0.799
This section presents the analysis of how stock returns 9 0.0038 1.165
are influenced by repurchase announcements in three 10 –0.0024 –0.786
time periods—during repurchase announcement Source: Authors’ computation.
date, prior to the announcement date, and post Note. This table presents the abnormal returns surrounding the
announcement date. repurchase announcement day t = 0. The t-statistics test the null
hypothesis that the AARs are equal to zero. * and ** indicate statistical
Tables 2 and 3 present the results of the market model. significance at 10% and 5% levels, respectively.
The daily AARs for all repurchase announcements are
computed over –28 and +28 periods relative to the event The cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) for
day 0. In Table 2, only the AARs for the –10 days and share repurchase announcements are presented in Table
+10 days are reported. The results reflect that the AARs 3. Here the CAARs are presented in three different time
in the pre-announcement period (10 days prior to the periods—the top part of the Table reports CAARs around
announcement date) remain predominantly positive, of the repurchase announcement day, the middle part of
which it is found to be statistically significant on day 7 the Table reports CAARs prior to the announcement
at 5 per cent level and on days 5 and 3 at 10 per cent day, and finally, the bottom part of the Table shows
level. The AARs on day 0 (i.e., announcement day) is CAARs on and after the announcement day. The results
also positive and is statistically significant at 5 per cent indicate that firms experience positive CAARs around
level. However, during the post-announcement period, the repurchase announcement day. For event windows
the AARs are found to be negative in most of the days. (–1, +1), (–2, +2), (–3, +3), (–4, +4), (–5, +5), (–10, +10),
For example, AARs are negative on days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, and (–20, +20), and (–28, +28), the CAARs are positive and
440 ANOMALOUS PRICE BEHAVIOUR AROUND OPEN MARKET STOCK REPURCHASE ANNOUNCEMENTS IN INDIA
the small-cap group has registered higher CAARs between abnormal stock return and size of repurchase.
compared to the mid-cap group. However, during In this subsample analysis, firms are partitioned by
the (0, +20) period, the mid-cap group experiences the size of repurchase. As noted earlier, in India, the
higher CAARs (0.071 %) compared to the small-cap maximum permissible size of repurchase is 25 per cent.
group (0.024 %) and both are significant at 10 per cent Firms are ranked from the largest to the smallest on
level, but the difference in the CAARs is statistically the basis of the size of repurchase. Then the sample is
insignificant (t = 1.336). During the (–28, +28) window, partitioned into the following two groups: the top and
the difference in the CAARs between the two groups are the bottom 25 percentile and the top and the bottom
not statistically significant. During this event window, 50 percentile of the size of repurchase. The statistical
both the mid-cap group as well as the small-cap group significance and magnitude of the stock returns for the
experience positive CAARs, of which the CAARs of the top groups are compared with the bottom groups. The
small-cap group (0.087 %) are statistically significant at subsample tests by repurchase size measure the impact
5 per cent level. Therefore, the means tests reveal that of repurchase size on abnormal stock returns. Panel II
the difference in the CAARs between the small-cap and of Table 4 presents the empirical results.
the mid-cap group is statistically significant only in the
pre-announcement period (–20, –1) but not in the post- The results show an insignificant difference in the
announcement period (0, +20) and the entire period means between the top and bottom 25 percentiles (t
(–28, +28). Thus, the empirical findings report a mixed = –0.544) during the (–20, –1) window. The top and
result with regard to the stock returns and firm size. The the bottom 50 percentile comparison also reports
views of Vermaelen (1981), Ratner et al. (1996), and Liao insignificant difference in the means between the large
et al. (2005) that larger firms experience less positive and the small repurchasing firms (in terms of size of
stock return to share repurchase announcements repurchase) during the same event window. In the
compared to small firms is not necessarily applicable in pre-announcement period (–20, –1), the bottom 25 and
the Indian equity market. the bottom 50 percentile firms have experienced larger
Table 4: Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAARs) around Share Repurchase Announcements (difference analysis)
Size of Repurchase and Stock Price Response CAARs compared to their top 25 and top 50 percentile
groups, respectively, of which only CAARs of the
The size of repurchase is often used as a proxy for bottom 50 percentile group is statistically significant
information, in which large repurchasing conveys more at 10 per cent level. The results in the window (0, +20)
information regarding the cash flow position of the demonstrate that a larger size repurchase tends to have
firm (Liao et al., 2005). Davidson and Garrison (1989) higher abnormal returns. To illustrate, the CAARs in
and Ratner et al. (1996) observe a positive association the top 25 percentile (0.058 %) group is significantly
NOTES
1 The financial year in India is from 1 April to 31 March of 2 For details on the market model, refer to Campbell, Lo,
the following year. Thus, the financial year 2009 covers the and MacKinlay (1997).
period from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2009.
REFERENCES
Badrinath, S., & Varaiya, N. (2000). The share repurchase decision: Campbell, J.Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A.C. (1997). The
Causes, consequences, and implementation guidelines. New econometrics of financial markets. USA: Princeton
Jersey, USA: Financial Executives Research Foundation. University Press.
Balachandran, B., & Troiano, R. (2000). On market share Chatterjee, C., & Rakshit, D. (2008). Share buyback regulations
buybacks and earnings: Australian evidence. Paper presented in India: A critical analysis. The Chartered Accountant,
at the Ninth Conference on the Theories and Practices of 57(5), 863–865.
Securities and Financial Markets, National Sun Yat-sen Comment, R., & Jarrell, G. A. (1991). The relative signalling
University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. power of Dutch-auction and fixed-price self-tender offers
Barry, C., & Brown, S. (1984). Differential information and and open-market share repurchases. Journal of Finance,
the small firm effect. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(2), 46(4), 1243–1271.
283–294.
442 ANOMALOUS PRICE BEHAVIOUR AROUND OPEN MARKET STOCK REPURCHASE ANNOUNCEMENTS IN INDIA
Cook, D. O., Krigman, L., & Leach, J. C. (2004). On the timing Ikenberry, D., Lakonishok, J., & Vermaelen, T. (1995). Market
and execution of open market repurchases. Review of underreaction to open market share repurchases. Journal
Financial Studies, 17(2), 463–498. of Financial Economics, 39(2–3), 181–208.
Dann, L. Y. (1981). Common stock repurchases: An analysis Ikenberry, D., Lakonishok, J., & Vermaelen, T. (2000). Stock
of returns to bondholders and stockholders. Journal of repurchases in Canada: Performance and strategic
Financial Economics, 9(2), 113–138. trading. Journal of Finance, 55(5), 2373–2397.
Davidson, W. N., & Garrison, S. H. (1989). The stock market Liao, T. L., Ke, M. C., & Yu, H. T. (2005). Anomalous price
reaction to significant tender offer repurchases of stock: behaviour around stock repurchases on the Taiwan Stock
Size and purpose perspective. The Financial Review, 24(1), Exchange. Applied Economics Letters, 12(1), 29–39.
93–107. Netter, J. M., & Mitchell, M. L. (1989). Stock repurchase
Eberhart, A. C., & Siddique, A. R. (2004). Why are stock announcements and insider transactions after the
buyback announcements good news. Working Paper, October 1987 stock market crash. Financial Management,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, UK. 18(3), 84–96.
Financial Executive Internationals (FEI). (1999). FEI members Ratner, M., Szewczyk, S. H., & Tsetsekos, G. P. (1996). The
expect share buyback activity to remain strong. Financial informational role of tender offer stock repurchases:
Executive, 15(3), 58. Evidence from institutional ownership. Journal of Business
Gupta, L. C., Jain, N., & Kumar, A. (2005). Indian share Finance and Accounting, 23(5–6), 869–880.
repurchase practices & their regulations: Effect on share prices: Rau, P. R., & Vermaelen, T. (2002). Regulation, taxes and share
Dividends and corporate finance. New Delhi: SCMRD. repurchases in the United Kingdom. Journal of Business,
Retrieved March 2005, from http://www.scmrd.org/ 75(2), 245–282.
SCMRD%20Share%20Buyback%20Study.pdf Vermaelen, T. (1981). Common stock repurchases and
Harris, T., & Ramsay, I. M. (1995). An empirical investigation market signaling: An empirical study. Journal of Financial
of Australian share buybacks. Australian Journal of Economics, 9(2), 139–183.
Corporate Law, 4(4), 393–416. Vermaelen, T. (1984). Repurchase tender offers, signaling, and
Hertzel, M. G. (1991). The effects of stock repurchases on rival managerial incentives. Journal of Financial and Quantitative
companies. Journal of Finance, 46(2), 707–716. Analysis, 19(2), 163–181.
Ho, T. S. Y., & Michaely, R. (1988). Information quality and Western, J. F., & Siu, J. A. (2002). Changing motives for share
market efficiency. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative repurchases. Anderson Graduate School of Management,
Analysis, 23(1), 53–70. University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Working
paper, 3-03. Retrieved 19 December 2002, from http://
www.anderson.ucla.edu/
Chanchal Chatterjee is currently working as an Assistant Paromita Dutta is currently working as an Assistant Professor
Professor in the Finance Area at the International Management of Accounting and Finance at St. Xavier’s College, Kolkata,
Institute, Kolkata, India. A gold medalist in the Masters, he has India. She is pursuing her doctoral research in the area of
received many prestigious awards for academic excellence. financial economics from the University of Calcutta, India.
He has a Ph.D in Financial Restructuring, for which he She has published several research papers in reputed refereed
obtained the best research award in the Finance Track in journals. Her areas of research interest include corporate
the 3rd Doctoral Colloquium from IIM Ahmedabad in 2010. finance and banking.
His doctoral dissertation has been published in the form
of a book by an international publisher based in Germany. e-mail: [email protected]
He has published more than 20 research papers in refereed
journals and has presented papers in several international
conferences. His research interest includes corporate finance,
corporate governance, and corporate payout policy.
e-mail: [email protected]