Given the P&L and Balance Sheet assumptions, calculate the following:

1. Calculate NOPAT in P&L output sheet (2014-2023)

2. Calculate Capex and Working Capital needs from 2019-2023
3. Calculate Net Cash Flow (2014-2023)
4. Apply 'goal seek' to find out terminal growth based on what market is expectin
 llowing:

market is expecting
1.Input -->
P&L assumptions

Selected case 2

FY14 FY15
INR in Crores Actual Actual
Revenue net 98,548 81,753
Revenue growth % -17%

case1
case2
case3

COGS (45,240) (34,689)

%sales 46% 42%

case1
case2
case3

Marketing & Other Operating Expenses (31,927) (29,972)

%sales 32% 37%

case1
case2
case3

Depreciation and amortisation expenses (3,375) (3,473)

sales% 3% 4%

case1
case2
case3

Tax% 34% 35%

case1
case2
case3
 Scenarios:
Case 1 Optimistic
Case 2 Base
Case 3 Worst

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
91,413 100,096 112,923 123,086 134,163
12% 9% 13% 9% 9%

12% 12%
9% 9%
-17% -17%

(38,828) (43,268) (45,902) (52,927) (57,690)

42% 43% 41% 43% 43%

41% 41%
43% 43%
44% 44%

(33,655) (35,221) (40,459) 43080 46957

37% 35% 36% 35% 35%

31% 31%
35% 35%
36% 36%

(3,537) (3,423) (3,357) 3693 4025

4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

3% 3%
3% 3%
4% 4%

35% 35% 35% 35% 35%

34% 34%
35% 35%
35% 35%
 FY21 FY22 FY23
Forecast Forecast Forecast
146,238 159,400 173,746
9% 9% 9%

12% 12% 12%

9% 9% 9%
-17% -17% -17%

(62,882) (68,542) (74,711)

43% 43% 43%

41% 41% 41%

43% 43% 43%
44% 44% 44%

51183 55790 60811

35% 35% 35%

31% 31% 31%

35% 35% 35%
36% 36% 36%

4387 4782 5212

3% 3% 3%

3% 3% 3%
3% 3% 3%
4% 4% 4%

35% 35% 35%

34% 34% 34%

35% 35% 35%
35% 35% 35%
BS assumptions

FY14 FY15 FY16

INR in Crores Actual Actual Actual
Accounts Receivable 991.0 784.2 979.3
DSO 3.7 3.5 3.9

Inventory 8,441.0 8,208.1 9,400.6

DIO 68.1 86.4 88.4

Accounts Payable 7,287.1 7,494.1 7,991.6

DPO 58.8 78.9 75.1

Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) 13.0 11.0 17.2

Net PP&E 34,214.2 31,286.4 29,183.1

% sales 35% 38% 32%
 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
889.7 1,245.9 1,349 1,470 1,603 1,747
3.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

9,024.7 9,655.5 11,133 12,135 13,227 14,418

76.1 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8

9,846.4 12,403.7 14,302 15,589 16,992 18,521

83.1 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6

(3.7) (17.8) (18) (18) (18) (18)

27,103.4 25,058.2 27,313.4 29,771.6 32,451.1 35,371.7

27% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
 FY23
Forecast
1,904
4.0

15,715
76.8

20,188
98.6

(18)

38,555.1
22%
2.Output -->
P&L

FY14 FY15
Rs in Crores Actual Actual
Revenues 98,548 81,753
Cost of goods sold (45,240) (34,689)
Gross Margin 53,309 47,064
Marketing & Other Operating Expenses (31,927) (29,972)
EBITDA 21,382 17,092
D&A (3,375) (3,473)
EBIT 18,007 13,620
Taxes 6,122 4,767
Tax rate 34% 35%
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) 11,884 8,853
1.0
 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
91,413 100,096 112,923 123,086 134,163 146,238
(38,828) (43,268) (45,902) (52,927) (57,690) (62,882)
52,585 56,828 67,020 70,159 76,473 83,356
(33,655) (35,221) (40,459) 43,080 46,957 51,183
18,930 21,607 26,561 27,079 29,516 32,172
(3,537) (3,423) (3,357) 3,693 4,025 4,387
15,394 18,184 23,204 23,386 25,491 27,785
5,388 6,365 8,122 8,185 8,922 9,725
35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
10,006 11,820 15,083 15,201 16,569 18,060
 FY22 FY23
Forecast Forecast Note
159,400 173,746
(68,542) (74,711)
90,858 99,035
55,790 60,811
35,068 38,224
4,782 5,212
30,286 33,012
10,600 11,554
35% 35%
19,686 21,458
Balance Sheet

FY14 FY15 FY16

INR in Crores Actual Actual Actual
Property, plant and equipment 34,214 31,286
Depreciation (3,375) (3,473) (3,537)
Capex 545 1,433
Ending Value 34,214 31,286 29,183

Inventory 8,441 8,208 9,401

Trade receivable 991 784 979
Trade payable 7,287 7,494 7,992
Working Capital 2,145 1,498 2,388
changes in working capital (646.7) 890.1
 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
29,183 27,103 25,058 27,313 29,772
(3,423) (3,357) 3,693 4,025 4,387
1,343 1,312 5,948 6,483 7,067
27,103 25,058 27,313 29,772 32,451

9,025 9,656 11,133 12,135 13,227

890 1,246 1,349 1,470 1,603
9,846 12,404 14,302 15,589 16,992
68 (1,502) (1,820) (1,984) (2,162)
(2,320.3) (1,434.3) (317.6) (163.8) (178.5)
 FY22 FY23
Forecast Forecast Note
32,451 35,372
4,782 5,212
7,703 8,396
35,372 38,555

14,418 15,715
1,747 1,904
18,521 20,188
(2,357) (2,569)
(194.6) (212.1)
Cash Flow

FY15 FY16 FY17

INR in Crores Actual Actual Actual
NOPAT 8,852.8 10,005.8 11,819.8
Add: Deprecitaion & Amortization (3,473) (3,537) (3,423)
Gross Cash Flow 12,325 13,543 15,242
Less: Capex 545 1,433 1,343
Less: Investment in working capital (646.7) 890.1 (2,320.3)
Net Cash Flow 11,134 11,219 11,579
 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
15,082.8 15,201.1 16,569.2 18,060.4 19,685.9
(3,357) 3,693 4,025 4,387 4,782
18,439 18,894 20,594 22,448 24,468
1,312 5,948 6,483 7,067 7,703
(1,434.3) (317.6) (163.8) (178.5) (194.6)
15,693 12,629 13,948 15,163 16,571
 FY23
Forecast Note
21,457.6
5,212
26,670
8,396
(212.1)
18,062
DCF Valuation

WACC 9.3%
Growth -7.8%

FY15 FY16
INR in Crores Actual Actual
Net Cash Flow 11,133.7 11,219.4
Discount factor
Present value

DCF value 57,974 48%

Continuing Value 96,915
PV of Continuing value 62,026.0 52%
Enterprise value 120,000.0
Less:Debt 351.4
Add:
Investments 7,333.6
Loans 401.4
Investments 19,251.3
Other current assets 223.9
Current tax assets 188.5
Other non operating financial assets 703.8
Equity Value 147,751.1
Shares outstanding 9.6
Intrinsic Value 15,326.9
 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
11,579.3 15,693.5 12,628.7 13,948.1 15,162.6 16,570.8
0.91 0.84 0.77 0.70
11,550.3 11,667.8 11,600.6 11,595.5

Growth
120,000.0 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
7.2% 238,730 269,368 311,790 374,412 476,174
8.2% 208,355 230,676 260,197 301,072 361,412
9.2% 184,625 201,462 222,976 251,431 290,829
10.2% 165,582 178,634 194,868 215,612 243,048
11.2% 149,971 160,311 172,899 188,557 208,565
WACC
 FY23
Forecast Note
18,061.9
0.64
11,559.7
 Cost of Capital

Key Inputs:
Total Equity to Capital
Net Debt to Capital

Calculations:
Risk Free Rate
Equity Beta
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity

Pre-tax cost of debt

Marginal Tax Rate
Cost of Debt

Weighted Cost of Equity

Weighted Cost of Debt

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Shares outstanding
Share price
Market Cap

Debt
ost of Capital

99.7%
0.3%

6.6%
0.55
5.0%
9.3%

9.0%
4.0%
8.6%

9.3%
0.0%

9.3%

9.64
12,439
119911.96

351.4
MARKET EXPECTATION 120263.36
3.Sources -->
Income Statement
INR (cr)

Particulars Dec-14 Dec-15

Sales 101,295 84,304
Other operating revenues 486 520
Excise Duties (3,232) (3,072)
Revenue net 98,548 81,753
Operating expenses
Cost of materials consumed (45,240) (34,689)
Marketing & Other Operating Expense (31,927) (29,972)
Total operating expenses (77,166) (64,661)
EBITDA 21,382 17,092
Depreciation and amortisation expens (3,375) (3,473)
EBIT 18,007 13,620
Other Income 873 1,101
Interest charges (142) (33)
Other non operating items (994) (6,551)
Profit before tax 17,744 8,136
Tax expense (5,897) (2,504)
Profit after tax / Net profit 11,847 5,633
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
94,096 101,351 112,162
650 571 760
(3,332) (1,826) -
91,413 100,096 112,923 Operating item

(38,828) (43,268) (45,902) Operating item

(33,655) (35,221) (40,459) Operating item
(72,483) (78,489) (86,362)
18,930 21,607 26,561
(3,537) (3,423) (3,357) Operating item
15,394 18,184 23,204
1,509 1,769 2,589 Non Operating item
(909) (919) (1,120) Non Operating item
(540) (641) (385) Non Operating item
15,454 18,394 24,290
(5,440) (6,141) (8,220) Operating item
10,014 12,253 16,069
Balance Sheet
INR (cr)

Particulars Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

ASSETS
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Net PP&E 34,214 31,286 29,183.1
Other non-current assets 677 706.7
Investments 3,045 3,418 4,743.1
Loans 1,300 627 643.7
Total Non-Current Assets 38,558.3 36,008.5 35,276.6

CURRENT ASSETS
Cash and Cash Equivalents 4,458 4,996 8,800.0
Investments 5,074 9,879 12,813.5
Inventories 8,441 8,208 9,400.6
Trade Receivables 991 784 979.3
Other current assets 152 305 314.6
Current tax assets - 328 27.3
Other non operating financial assets 521 404 492.7
Total Current Assets 19,636.7 24,904.0 32,828.0
TOTAL ASSETS 58,195.0 60,912.5 68,104.6

Particulars Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

LIABILITIES
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Long Term Debt 154.6 167.9 331.5
Deferred Tax Liability 2,227.2 1,747.0 1,553.4
Other non-current liabilities - - 6.8
Provisions 13,886.6 15,971.7 19,722.1
Equity 28,372.1 30,358.6 32,823.3
Total Non-Current Liabilities 44,640.5 48,245.2 54,437.1

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Short Term Debt 41.1 9.4 -
Other Financial Liabilities - 2,492.7 3,116.4
TradePayables 7,287.1 7,494.1 7,991.6
Other current liabilities 4,095.7 2,164.7 2,021.5
Provisions 2,130.6 506.4 538.0
Total Current Liabilities 13,554.5 12,667.3 13,667.5
TOTAL LIABILITIES 58,195.0 60,912.5 68,104.6
- - -
 Dec-17 Dec-18

27,103.4 25,058.2 Operating item

832.3 718.1 Operating item
5,852.8 7,333.6 Non Operating item
463.5 401.4 Non Operating item
34,252.0 33,511.3

14,574.2 16,100.6 Operating item

13,935.9 19,251.3 Non-Operating item
9,024.7 9,655.5 Operating item
889.7 1,245.9 Operating item
169.6 223.9 Operating item
63.9 188.5 Operating item
715.9 703.8 Non-Operating item
39,373.9 47,369.5
73,625.9 80,880.8

Dec-17 Dec-18

351.4 351.4 Non-Operating item

1,219.6 588.2 Non-Operating item
6.0 5.1 Non-Operating item
22,915.9 24,649.2 Non-Operating item
34,205.9 36,737.4 Non-Operating item
58,698.8 62,331.3

- - Non-Operating item
3,140.2 3,161.8 Non-Operating item
9,846.4 12,403.7 Operating item
1,065.9 1,411.4 Operating item
874.6 1,572.6 Operating item
14,927.1 18,549.5
73,625.9 80,880.8
- -