Mutah University

ISE Department

Systems Modeling and Simulation

CLASS NOTES-1

Fall 2021
Dr. Najat Almasarwah
 Chapter 1

What is Simulation?
 Couse Objectives
The main objective of this course is to teach students the concepts, principles,
and software tools for modeling of systems using discrete event simulation.

Therefore, the primary emphasis of the course will be on modeling and on the
use of the simulation software, ARENA.

The students are expected to understand the importance of simulation in

industrial and business systems.

Modeling techniques for entities, queues, resources and entity transfer will be
explained.

Additionally, model validation, statistical analysis and modeling, system

performance analysis and improvement, and systems thinking concepts will be
delivered.
Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?
 Simulation Is …
• Simulation – very broad term – simply:
methods and applications to imitate or
mimic real systems, usually via computer

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 What is system?
1.
A set of detailed methods, procedures and routines
created to carry out a specific activity, perform
a duty, or solve a problem.
2.
An organized, purposeful structure that consists of
interrelated and interdependent elements
– components, entities, factors, members, parts etc.
– These elements continually influence one another
(directly or indirectly) to maintain their activity and
the existence of the system, in
order to achieve the goal of the system.

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Systems
• System – facility or process, actual or
planned
– Examples abound …
• Manufacturing facility
• Bank operation
• Airport operations (passengers, security,
planes, crews, baggage)
• Transportation/logistics/distribution
operation
• Hospital facilities (emergency room,
operating room, admissions)
• Computer network
• Freeway system
• Business process (insurance office)
• Criminal justice system
• Chemical plant
• Fast-food restaurant
• Supermarket
• Theme park
• Emergency-response system
• Shipping ports, berths
• Military combat, logistics

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Models
• Model – set of assumptions, approximations and
formulations about how a system works
– Study model instead of real system
– Try wide-ranging ideas to learn + -> improve
– Validate

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Why simulation modeling?

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Types of Models
• 1) Physical (iconic)
models
– Tabletop material-
handling models
– Mock-ups of fast-food
restaurants
– Flight simulators

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Types of Models cont’d.
• 2) Logical (mathematical)
models
– Approximations,
assumptions about system’s
operation - the most-abstract
model
– Often represented via
computer program in
appropriate software
– Exercise program to try
things, get results, learn
about model behavior

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Types of Models cont’d.
• 3) Analogous models
– more abstract but
having some
resemblance to what
it represents, such as
– a chart, graph, map,
network diagram *.

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Studying Logical Models
• If model is simple enough, use traditional
mathematical analysis … get exact results, lots of
insight into model
– Queueing theory
– Differential equations
– Linear programming
• But complex systems can seldom be validly
represented by simple analytic model
– Danger of over-simplifying assumptions … model
validity?
– Type III error – working on the wrong problem
• Often, complex system requires complex model,
analytical methods don’t apply … what to do?

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Computer Simulation
• Usually symbolic sometimes analogous with 3D
Animation
• Methods for studying wide variety of models of
systems
– Numerically evaluate on computer
– Use software to imitate system’s operations,
characteristics, often over time
• Can use to study simple models, but should not
use if an analytical solution is available
• Real power of simulation – studying complex
models
• Simulation can tolerate complex models since we
don’t even aspire to an analytical solution

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Popularity of Simulation
Era of
1983, 1989, 1989 computers
1978+ 1979 1980 1993: & internet
M.S. Survey 137 (A)IIE O.R. Longitudinal Survey of More
graduates of large firms, division study of surveys complex
CWRU O.R. which members corporate models
Department methods practice Software
… after used? architectures
graduation

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Popularity of Simulation
– 1978:
1. Statistical analysis
2. Forecasting
3. Systems Analysis
4. Information systems
5. Simulation
– 1979: Survey 137 large firms, which methods
used?
1. Statistical analysis (93% used it)
2. Simulation (84%)
3. Followed by LP, PERT/CPM, inventory theory …

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Popularity of Simulation (cont’d.)
– 1980: (A)IIE O.R. division members
• First in utility and interest — simulation
• First in familiarity — LP (simulation was second)
– 1983, 1989, 1993: Longitudinal study of corporate
practice
1. Statistical analysis
2. Simulation
– 1989: Survey of surveys
• Heavy use of simulation consistently reported
• Since these surveys, hardware/software have
improved, making simulation even more
attractive
– Historical impediment to simulation – computer
speed

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Advantages of Simulation

1- Flexibility
• Modeling flexibility of things as they are
even if its complex

2- Dealing with uncertainty

• Model validity?
• Accounting for randomness and variability

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Advantages of Simulation (cont’d.)
3- Advances in computing/cost ratios
• Estimated that 75% of computing power is used for
various kinds of simulations
• Dedicated machines (e.g., real-time shop-floor control)

4- Advances in simulation software

• Far easier to use (GUIs)
• No longer as restrictive in modeling constructs
(hierarchical)
• Statistical design & analysis, and optimization
capabilities
Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?
 Advantages of Simulation (cont’d.)
5- Safe to work on systems with
fragile properties or features
• Nuclear power systems, health care, etc.

6- Reduces the experimental time

• Replications of models can be run faster

compared to real time on-system tests.
Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?
 The Bad News

Bad Only approximations

News No exact results

RIRO Get random output (RIRO)

from stochastic simulations

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Types of Simulation Models
Static vs. Dynamic
• Does time have a role in model?

Continuous-change vs. Discrete-change

• e.g. States change continuously or at discrete
points of time?

Deterministic vs. Stochastic

• e.g. Are processing/service times known or
fluctuating?

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Different Kinds of Simulation (cont’d.)

• Most operational models:

–Dynamic, Discrete-change, Stochastic
• Chapter 2 discusses one static model
• Chapter 11 discusses continuous and
combined discrete-continuous models

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Using Computers to Simulate
General purpose languages (GPL)
• Tedious, low level, error-prone
• Good flexibility

Support packages for GPLs

• Subroutines
• Wide applicability
• Limited customizability

Spreadsheets
• Good for static models and financial scenarios
• e.g. @risk, crystal ball
Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?
 Using Computers to Simulate
(cont’d.)

Simulation languages

• GPSS, SLX, Siman (what ARENA, SIMIO,

etc. are built on)

High-level simulators

• Very easy, graphical interface

• Limited domain
• Limited flexibility

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Where Arena Fits In

Hierarchical structure
• Multiple levels of modeling
• Mix different modeling
levels together in same
model
• Often, start high then go
lower as needed
• Get ease-of-use advantage
of simulators without
sacrificing modeling
flexibility

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 When Simulations are Used
• Use of simulation has
evolved with hardware,
software
• Early years (1950s –
1960s)
– Very expensive,
specialized tool
– Required big computers,
special training
– Mostly in FORTRAN (or
even Assembler)
– Processing cost as high as
$1000/hour for a sub-PC
level machine

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 When Simulations are Used (cont’d.)
• Formative years (1970s –
early 1980s)
– Computers got faster,
cheaper
– Value of simulation more 1976
widely recognized
– Simulation software
improved, but still
languages to be learned,
typed, batch processed
– Often used to clean up
“disasters” in auto,
aerospace industries
1982
• Car plant; heavy demand
for certain model
• Line underperforming
• Simulated, problem
identified
• But demand had dried up
— simulation was too late

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 When Simulations are Used (cont’d.)
• Recent past (late 1980s – mid
2000s)
– Microcomputer power
– Software expanded into GUIs,
animation
– Wider acceptance across more
areas
• Traditional manufacturing
applications
• Services Mac 128K in 1986
• Health care
• “Business processes”
– Still mostly in large firms
– Simulation is often part of
“specs”

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 When Simulations are Used (cont’d.)
• Present
– Proliferating into smaller firms
– Becoming a standard tool
– Being used earlier in design phase
– Real-time control
• Future
– Integration with other applications for visualization, analysis
– Networked sharing of big data in real time
– Internet-enabled distributed model building, execution
– Specialized vertical “templates” for specific industries, firms
– Better model re-usability, operational decision making
– Automated statistical design, analysis

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Simulation by Hand:
The Buffon Needle Problem

• Estimate π (George Louis Leclerc, c. 1733)

• Toss needle of length l onto table with stripes d
(>l) apart
• P (needle crosses a line) =
• Repeat; tally = proportion of times a line is
crossed
• Estimate π by
Just for fun:
http://www.mste.uiuc.edu/reese/buffon/bufjava.html
http://www.angelfire.com/wa/hurben/buff.html
Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?
 Buffon's Needle Animated in 3D

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?

 Why Toss Needles?
• Buffon needle problem seems silly now, but
has important simulation features:
– Experiment to estimate something hard to
compute exactly (in 1733)
– Randomness, so estimate will not be exact;
estimate the error in the estimate
– Replication (the more the better) to reduce error
– Sequential sampling to control error — keep
tossing until probable error in estimate is “small
enough”
– Variance reduction (Buffon Cross)
Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?
 Lab Project - 1
• Running a “simulation model” by hand
– Case Study: Buffon Needle’s Problem
• (An Ancient Problem but worth to check out!)

Simulation with Arena, 5th ed. Chapter 1 – What Is Simulation?