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Big Data Analytics and Mining For Effective Visualization and Trends Forecasting of Crime Data

This document describes using big data analytics and machine learning algorithms like LSTM and neural networks to analyze crime data and forecast future crime trends. The author analyzes a dataset containing crime records from San Francisco to visualize patterns in crime types, locations, and times. LSTM and neural network models are trained on the data to predict crimes for the next year, and LSTM is found to have better performance with a lower root mean square error. Key steps of preprocessing the data and building the models are also outlined.

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Sindhu Pranathi
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83 views8 pages

Big Data Analytics and Mining For Effective Visualization and Trends Forecasting of Crime Data

This document describes using big data analytics and machine learning algorithms like LSTM and neural networks to analyze crime data and forecast future crime trends. The author analyzes a dataset containing crime records from San Francisco to visualize patterns in crime types, locations, and times. LSTM and neural network models are trained on the data to predict crimes for the next year, and LSTM is found to have better performance with a lower root mean square error. Key steps of preprocessing the data and building the models are also outlined.

Uploaded by

Sindhu Pranathi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Big Data Analytics and Mining for Effective Visualization and Trends

Forecasting of Crime Data


In this paper author is describing concept to forecast crime data by analysing
crimes dataset which contains lakhs of records. Analysing such big data help us
in obtaining useful information such as in which hours or which year or which
type of crime is committing more crimes. We can visualize this data to the
police or crime authorities which help them in deploying more force at the
location/time which have more crime commits.
Using big data we are visualizing useful information and then using Deep
Machine Learning Algorithms such as LSTM (Long short term memory) and
Prophet, we are forecasting crime for next year. Using this prediction police
peoples can take necessary decision on time. Here author is using Neural
Network, LSTM and Prophet to predict crimes but LSTM and Prophet is giving
better performance.
In this project I am implementing LSTM and Neural Network and then
comparing RSME (root mean square error) between them. I am not
implementing PROPHET as this library not getting installed.
In paper author has used 3 crimes datasets from San-Francisco, Chicago, and
Philadelphia but on internet I am able to find San-Francisco dataset and I am
using that one only.
Dataset contain following columns/features
1) IncidentNum - Case number of each incident;
2) Dates - Date and timestamp of the crime incident;
3) Category - Type of the crime. This is the
4) Descript - A brief note describing any pertinent details of the crime;
5) DayOfWeek - Day of the week that crime occurred;
6) PdDistrict - Police Department District ID where the crime is assigned;
7) Resolution - How the crime incident was resolved (with the perpetrator
being, say, arrest or booked);
8) Address - The approximate street address of the crime incident;
9) X - Longitude of the location of a crime;
10) Y - Latitude of the location of a crime;
11) Coordinate - Pairs of Longitude and Latitude;
12) Dome - whether crime id domestic or not;
13) Arrest - Arrested or not;
This dataset saved inside dataset folder and you can see all columns and
crimes details in that dataset. To implement this project we are following
below pre-processing steps.
1) Replacing all missing values with mean of that column values
2) Converting time stamp into five various columns such as YEAR, MONTH,
DAY, TIME, HOUR and Seconds which can help in forecasting based on
time series and visualization.
NEURAL NETWORK MODEL Working Details
A neural network is composed of a certain numbers of neurons, namely nodes
in the network, which are organized in several layers and connected to each
other cross different layers. There are at least three layers in a neural network,
i.e. the input layer of the observations, a non-observable hidden layer in the
middle, and an output layer as the predicted results. In this paper we explored
the multilayer feed-forward network, where each layer of nodes receives
inputs from the previous layer. The outputs of the nodes in one layer will
become the inputs to the next layer.
LSTM MODEL Working Details
LSTM model is a powerful type of recurrent neural network (RNN), capable of
learning long-term dependencies. For time series involves autocorrelation, i.e.
the presence of correlation between the time series and lagged versions of
itself, LSTMs are particular useful in prediction due to their capability of
maintaining the state whilst recognizing patterns over the time series. The
recurrent architecture enables the states to be persisted, or communicate
between updated weights as each epoch progresses. Moreover, the LSTM cell
architecture can enhance the RNN by enabling long term persistence in
addition to short term
Screen shots
To run project double click on ‘run.bat’ file to get below screen
In above screen click on ‘Upload Crime Dataset’ button and upload dataset

In above screen I am uploading San-Francisco dataset and uploading dataset


will get below screen
Now click on ‘Visualize Dataset’ button to view top 10 crimes

In above screen we can see top 10 crimes and which crime is committing more
and now click on ‘Yearly Crime’ to visualize below graph
In above graph x-axis represents year and y-axis represents crimes count and
from above graph from 2003 to 2014 more number of crimes was committed.
Now click on ‘Hourly Graph’ button to visualize below graph

In above graph x-axis represents Hour and y-axis represents crime count and in
above graph we can see more crimes are committing at night hours. Now we
visualize all possible data and now to forecast/predict crime we need to train
LSTM and Neural Network model. So click on ‘Run Neural Network Algorithm’
button to generate neural network model
In above black console we can see neural network layers are created and its
building model on different epochs to filter features and to choose best
features to generate model. After training model we can get next year top 10
crime prediction in below screen

In above screen just I am displaying first top 10 crimes and below I am


displaying RSME error for neural network. Now click on ‘Run LSTM Algorithm’
button to generate model using LSTM
In above console we can see LSTM model also start generating and now see
below screen for prediction

In above screen we got prediction with LSTM and LSTM got less RMSE error
compare to neural network so we can say LSTM is better than Neural Network.
Now click on ‘RMSE Comparison Graph’ button to get RMSE comparison graph
between LSTM and neural network
In above graph x-axis represents algorithm name and y-axis represents RMSE
value. From above graph we can say LSTM got less RMSE so it performance is
better. If any prediction model accuracy is high then it will consider as best
prediction model and its RMSE error will reduce

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