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5.6.1 Event Tree Analysis Qstn-2 Answers (Containment Failure)

The document describes a manufacturing company analyzing risks associated with a process containment failure using an event tree analysis model. The event tree quantifies the probabilities of various events following a containment failure, such as detection, alarm, suppression, and manual control. It then calculates the frequency of an uncontrolled release as once every 5.5 years. When determining if this risk is tolerable, factors to consider include health and environmental impacts, cause of release, social outrage, legal requirements, and costs. A cost-benefit analysis to evaluate risk reduction measures would quantify losses versus improvement costs to identify options with costs exceeded by total losses and an acceptable payback period.

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189 views2 pages

5.6.1 Event Tree Analysis Qstn-2 Answers (Containment Failure)

The document describes a manufacturing company analyzing risks associated with a process containment failure using an event tree analysis model. The event tree quantifies the probabilities of various events following a containment failure, such as detection, alarm, suppression, and manual control. It then calculates the frequency of an uncontrolled release as once every 5.5 years. When determining if this risk is tolerable, factors to consider include health and environmental impacts, cause of release, social outrage, legal requirements, and costs. A cost-benefit analysis to evaluate risk reduction measures would quantify losses versus improvement costs to identify options with costs exceeded by total losses and an acceptable payback period.

Uploaded by

Manu K Joy
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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EVENT TREE ANALYSIS- MODEL-2

Question

A manufacturing company with major on and off site hazards is analysing the risks and controls
associated with a particular process and containment failure.
Following a process containment failure (f=0.5/yr), a failure detection mechanism should detect the
release. Once detected, an alarm sounds then a suppressant is activated. Finally, in order to control the
initial release, an operator is required to initiate manual control measures following the release of the
suppressant.
As part of the analysis, the company has decided to quantify the risks associated with a substance
release from the process and develop a quantified event tree from the data.

Activity Frequency/reliability
Process containment failure 0.5 per year
Failure detection 0.95
Alarm sounders 0.99
Release suppression 0.85
Manual control measures activated 0.8

(a) Using the data provided, draw an event tree that shows the sequence of events following a process
containment failure. (6)
(b) Calculate the frequency of an uncontrolled release resulting from process containment failure. (6)
(c) Outline the factors that that should be considered when determining whether the frequency of the
uncontrolled risk is tolerable or not. (5)
(d) If the risk is found to be intolerable, outline the methodology for a cost benefit analysis with respect to
the process described. (3)
Part (a)
the following is the quantified event tree.
Part (b)

Following is the calculation in arriving at the frequency of an uncontrolled release resulting from process
containment failure.

Release 1 = 0.5 x 0.05 = 0.025/yr

Release 2 = 0.5 x 0.95 x 0.01 = 0.00475/yr

Release 3 = 0.5 x 0.95 x 0.99 x 0.15 = 0.071/yr

Release 4 = 0.5 x 0.95 x 0.99 x 0.85 x 0.2 = 0.08/yr

The frequency of an uncontrolled release would be =

0.025 + 0.00475 + 0.071 + 0.08 = 0.181/yr. or once every 5.5 years.

Part (c)

Factors to be considered in determining whether the frequency of the uncontrolled risk is tolerable or not
include:

 the plant location taking into account the health and environmental implications of a release;

 the cause of the release such as for example, as a result of a catastrophe

 the inevitable outrage that it would arouse

 historical data

 relevant legal requirements

 the impact that a failure would have on production

 the cost of control measures

 published risk data such as those contained in “Reducing Risks Protecting People.”

Part d

The first step of the methodology for a cost benefit analysis would comprise the quantification of process
losses and improvement costs in terms of monetary value. Should a comparison indicate that process
losses together with other possible losses such as damage to the organisation’s reputation exceed
improvement costs, the improvement work should be carried out. A payback period would need to be
established with due consideration being given to the value of the money involved spread over the period
of time.

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