Date of Valuation: Default Assumptions
Date of Valuation: Default Assumptions
Company name Spotify There should be a check against the iteration box. If th
Numbers from your base year below ( in consistent units)
This year Last year
Country of incorporation Sweden
Industry (US) Entertainment
Industry (Global) Entertainment Last 10K Years since last 10K
Revenues € 4,090.00 € 2,952.00 1
Operating income or EBIT (€ 378.00) (€ 349.00) 1
Interest expense € 0.00 € 336.00
Book value of equity € 1,182.00 € 238.00
Book value of debt € 0.00 € 944.00
Do you have R&D expenses to capitalize? Yes If you want to capitalize R&D, you have to input the
Do you have operating lease commitments? No If you have operating leases, please enter your lease c
Cash and Marketable Securities € 1,509.00 € 1,585.00
Cross holdings and other non-operating assets € 910.00 € -
Minority interests € - € -
Number of shares outstanding = 177.17
Current stock price = € 107.33
Effective tax rate = 25.00%
Marginal tax rate = 25.00%
The value drivers below:
Compounded annual revenue growth rate over next 5 ye 25.00% Growth Lever
Target pre-tax operating margin (EBIT as % of sales in 12.97% Profitability Lever
Year of convergence 10.00 Speed of convergence level
Sales to capital ratio (for computing reinvestment) = 4.00 Efficency of Growth Lever
Market numbers
Riskfree rate 2.85%
Initial cost of capital = 9.24%
Other inputs
Do you have employee options outstanding? Yes
Number of options outstanding = 20.82
Average strike price = € 42.56
Average maturity = 3.30
Standard deviation on stock price = 30.00%
Default assumptions.
In stable growth, I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (riskfree rate + 4.5%)
Do you want to override this assumption = No Mature companies generally see their risk levels appr
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 = 8% Though some sectors, even in stable growth, may have
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10. I am assuming that whatever competitive
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Mature companies find it difficult to generate returns
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 1 12% But there are significant exceptions among companies
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure over the foreseeable future.
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they
If yes, enter the probability of failure = 20% Tough to estimate but a key input.
What do you want to tie your proceeds in failure to? V B: Book value of capital, V= Estimated fair value for
Enter the distress proceeds as percentage of book or fair 50% This can be zero, if the assets will be worth nothing if
I will assume that your effective tax rate will adjust to your marginal tax rate by your terminal year. If you override this assumption, I will l
Do you want to override this assumption = No
I will assume that you have no losses carried forward from prior years ( NOL) coming into the valuation. If you have a money losing compa
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Check the financial statements.
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into yea € 1,351.00 An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even afte
I will assume that the growth rate in perpetuity will be equal to the risk free rate. This allows for both valuation consistency and prevents "im
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the growth rate in perpetuity 1.00% This can be negative, if you feel the company will dec
I have assumed that none of the cash is trapped (in foreign countries) and that there is no additional tax liability coming due and that cash is a neutral ass
Do you want to override this assumption No
If yes, enter trapped cash (if taxes) or entire balance (if mistru $0.00 Cash that is trapped in foreign markets (and subject to addi
& Average tax rate of the foreign markets where the cash is t 15% Additional tax rate due on trapped cash or discount being a
run this spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
k against the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
w ( in consistent units)
ze R&D, you have to input the numbers into the R&D worksheet.
ases, please enter your lease commitments in the lease worksheet below and I will convert to debt
Computed numbers: Here is what your company's numbers look like, relative to industry.
If you are not working in US dollars, you should add the inflation differential to the industry averages.
Company Industry (US datIndustry (Global data)
Revenue growth in the most recent year = 38.55% 3.33% 7.56%
Pre-tax operating margin in the most recent year -3.75% 20.72% 16.53%
Sales to capital ratio in most recent year = -12.51 1.59 1.40
Return on invested capital in most recent year= -88.99% 31.11% 20.75%
Standard deviation in stock prices = 54.94% 44.77%
Cost of capital = 6.93% 8.34%
Valuation Output Feedback (for you to use to fine tune your inputs, if you want)
Revenues in year 10, based on your revenue growth = $ 22,157
Pre-tax Operating Income in year 10, based on your operating m $ 2,874
Return on invested capital in year 10, based on your sales/capital 46.20%
Check the Diagnostics worksheet for more details.
mpanies fail, especially if they have trouble raising cash. Many distressed companies fail, because they have trouble making debt payments.
you feel the company will decline (and disappear) after growth is done. If you let it exceed the risk free rate, you are on your own in uncharted territory.
due and that cash is a neutral asset.
eign markets (and subject to additoinal tax) or cash that is being discounted by the market (because of management mistrust)
trapped cash or discount being applied to cash balance because of mistrust.
debt payments.
own in uncharted territory.
Base year 1 2 3 4
Revenue growth rate 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
Revenues € 4,090.00 € 5,112.50 € 6,390.63 € 7,988.28 € 9,985.35
EBIT (Operating) margin -3.75% -2.08% -0.41% 1.26% 2.94%
EBIT (Operating income) € (153.50) € (106.38) € (26.11) € 100.95 € 293.17
Tax rate € 0.25 € 0.25 € 0.25 € 0.25 € 0.25
EBIT(1-t) € (153.50) € (106.38) € (26.11) € 100.95 € 293.17
- Reinvestment € 255.63 € 319.53 € 399.41 € 499.27
FCFF € (362.01) € (345.64) € (298.46) € (206.10)
NOL € 1,351.00 € 1,457.38 € 1,483.49 € 1,382.54 € 1,089.37
Implied variables
Sales to capital ratio 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Invested capital $ 173 $ 428 $ 748 $ 1,147 $ 1,646
ROIC -88.99% -24.85% -3.49% 8.80% 17.81%
5 6 7 8 9 10 Terminal year
25.00% 20.57% 16.14% 11.71% 7.28% 2.85% 2.85%
### ### ### ### ### ### ###
4.61% 6.28% 7.95% 9.63% 11.30% 12.97% 12.97%
€ 575.19 € 945.16 € 1,389.99 € 1,879.27 € 2,366.35 € 2,794.05 € 2,873.68
€ 0.25 € 0.25 € 0.25 € 0.25 € 0.25 € 0.25 € 0.25
€ 575.19 € 837.42 € 1,042.49 € 1,409.45 € 1,774.76 € 2,095.54 € 2,155.26
€ 624.08 € 641.87 € 607.23 € 511.67 € 355.35 € 149.24 € 511.87
€ (48.90) € 195.55 € 435.26 € 897.78 € 1,419.41 € 1,946.30 € 1,643.39
€ 514.18 € - € - € - € - € - € -
After year 10
4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
$ 2,270 $ 2,912 $ 3,520 $ 4,031 $ 4,387 $ 4,536
25.33% 28.75% 29.62% 34.96% 40.46% 46.20% 12.00%
Compare this return on capital in year 10 against
a. the industry average(column E of worksheet)
b. the return on capital after year 10
If it is too high (low), you may want to lower (raise
erminal year Check these revenues against
a. Overall market size
b. Largest companies in this market
fter year 10
return on capital in year 10 against
y average(column E of worksheet)
on capital after year 10
h (low), you may want to lower (raise) your sales to capital ratio
Revenue Pre-Tax Pre-Tax After-Tax
Year Revenues Growth Operating Operating NOL Taxes Operating
Rate Margin Income Income
Traling 12 m $ 4,090.00 -3.75% $ (153.50) $ 1,351.00 $ - $ (153.50)
1 $ 5,112.50 25.00% -2.08% $ (106.38) $ 1,457.38 $ - $ (106.38)
2 $ 6,390.63 25.00% -0.41% $ (26.11) $ 1,483.49 $ - $ (26.11)
3 $ 7,988.28 25.00% 1.26% $ 100.95 $ 1,382.54 $ - $ 100.95
4 $ 9,985.35 25.00% 2.94% $ 293.17 $ 1,089.37 $ - $ 293.17
5 $12,481.69 25.00% 4.61% $ 575.19 $ 514.18 $ - $ 575.19
6 $15,049.17 20.57% 6.28% $ 945.16 $ - $ 107.74 $ 837.42
7 $17,478.11 16.14% 7.95% $ 1,389.99 $ - $ 347.50 $ 1,042.49
8 $19,524.80 11.71% 9.63% $ 1,879.27 $ - $ 469.82 $ 1,409.45
9 $20,946.20 7.28% 11.30% $ 2,366.35 $ - $ 591.59 $ 1,774.76
10 $21,543.17 2.85% 12.97% $ 2,794.05 $ - $ 698.51 $ 2,095.54
Cumulated
Year Cost of Cost of FCFF Terminal Present
Capital Value Value
Capital
1 9.24% 1.0924 $ (362.01) $ (331.39)
2 9.24% 1.1933 $ (345.64) $ (289.65)
3 9.24% 1.3035 $ (298.46) $ (228.97)
4 9.24% 1.4239 $ (206.10) $ (144.74)
5 9.24% 1.5555 $ (48.90) $ (31.44)
6 8.86% 1.6933 $ 195.55 $ 115.49
7 8.48% 1.8369 $ 435.26 $ 236.95
8 8.10% 1.9858 $ 897.78 $ 452.11
9 7.73% 2.1392 $ 1,419.41 $ 663.52
10 7.35% 2.2965 $ 1,946.30 $36,519.70 $16,750.18
Value of operating assets = $17,192.05
Spotify
The Story
Spotify is the world's largest conduit for streaming music, which has become the dominant form of downloads in th
Spotify will continue to add users, though at a slower rate, as it faces strong competition in the US from Apple Mus
issues, and shift increasingly to a subscriber based business, away from advertising. As the user base grows, the ope
currently negative, will improve as content costs continue to shrink and economies of scale bring other costs under
losing company facing deep-pocketed competition, there is a 20% chance that the company will be forced to sell its
value sometime in the next 10 years.
The Assumptions
Base year Years 1-5 Years 6-10 After year 10
Link to story
User growth continues, albeit at slower
pace, with shift towards subscription-
based model.
Content costs will continue to drop, as
Spotify negotiates better deals with
music labels. Economies of scale will
lower G&A and R&D costs.
Used a global average tax rate. Used Tie each assumption to the part of your story
NOL of 1.35 billion Euros to defer that relates to it.
paying taxes until year 6.
Low capital intensity business with
technology and platform investments
taking the form of R&D.
FCFF
€ (362.01)
€ (345.64) These are the numbers that come from your
€ (298.46) assumptions. The revenues over time reflect
€ (206.10) your revenue growth, the operating margins
€ (48.90) evolve towards your target margin and your
tax rate will change, if you have set it to. The
€ 195.55 reinvestment is estimated using the sales to
€ 435.26 capital ratio for the first 10 years and based
€ 897.78 on a reinvestment rate in stable growth (g/
€ 1,419.41 ROC).
€ 1,946.30
€ 1,643.39
€ 107.33
Valuing Options or Warrants
Enter the current stock price = $ 107.33
Enter the strike price on the option = $ 42.56
Enter the expiration of the option = 3.30
Enter the standard deviation in stock 30.00% (volatility)
Enter the annualized dividend yield 0.00%
Enter the treasury bond rate = 2.85%
Enter the number of warrants (option 20.82
Enter the number of shares outstandi 177.17
d1 = 2.0639482
N (d1) = 0.9804887
d2 = 1.5189711
N (d2) = 0.9356151
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expense 2 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = $ 396.00 The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 207.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 136.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 396.00 1.00 396.00
-1 207.00 0.50 103.50 $ 103.50
-2 136.00 0.00 0.00 $ 68.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Research Asset = $499.50 $ 171.50
Adjustment to Operating Income = $224.50 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to reported EBIT)
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $56
tments to operating income, net
he amortization period
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 3.39% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the synthetic rating estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 e 6 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 20.69 $ 20.01
2 $ 21.87 $ 20.46
3 $ 22.17 $ 20.06
4 $ 21.77 $ 19.05
5 $ 21.97 $ 18.59
6 and beyon $ 20.57 $ 93.10 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $ 191.28
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $ 17.39 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $4.43 ! Add this amount to pre-tax operating income
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $ 191.28 ! Add this amount to debt
Adjustment to Depreciation = $17.39
Estimation of Current Cost of Capital
Inputs
Equity
Number of Shares outstanding = 177.17
Current Market Price per share = $ 107.33
Debt
Book Value of Straight Debt = $ -
Interest Expense on Debt = $ -
Average Maturity = 3
Approach for estimating pre-tax cost of debt Synthetic rating
If direct input, input the pre-tax cost of debt 3.500%
If actual rating, input the rating Aa2/AA
If synethetic rating, input the type of compan 1
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 3.39%
Tax Rate = 25%
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = $ -
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $ -
Value of Debt in Operating leases = $ -
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $ -
Levered Beta for equity = 1.02
Equity Debt Preferred Stock Capital
Market Value $ 19,014.56 $ - $ - ###
Weight in Cost of Capital 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com
For large manufacturing firms
If interest coverage ratio is
> ≤ to Rating is Spread is
-100000 0.199999 D2/D 18.60%
0.2 0.649999 Caa/CCC 13.95%
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 10.63%
0.8 1.249999 C2/C 8.64%
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 4.37%
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 3.57%
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 2.98%
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 2.38%
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 1.98%
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 1.27%
3 4.249999 A3/A- 1.13%
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 0.99%
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 0.90%
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 0.72%
8.50 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.54%
$75,872.00
$2,404.00
$24,171.00
$276.00
ailing 12 month
Spotify: Streaming Growth
100 € 4,500
€ 4,090.00
90 € 4,000
80
€ 3,500
70
€ 2,952.00 € 3,000
Number of Subscribers (in millions)
50
€ 1,940.00 € 2,000
40
€ 1,500
30
€ 1,000
20
10 € 500
0 €-
2015 2016 2017
€ 7.06
€ 4,000
€ 7.00
€ 3,500 € 6.00
€ 6.00
€ 5.00
Revenues (in millions of Euros)
€ 2,500
€ 4.00
€ 2,000
€ 3.00
€ 1,500
€ 2.00
€ 1,000
€ 1.00
€ 500
€- €-
2015 2016 2017
€ 4,500 Spotify: Content Costs 90%
€ 4,000
88%
€ 3,500
86%
Revenues and Costs (in millions of Euros)
€ 3,000
€ 2,500
82%
€ 2,000
80%
€ 1,500
78%
€ 1,000
76%
€ 500
€- 74%
2015 2016 2017
2015 2016 2017 2027 (% targets)
Subscription € 1,744.00 € 2,657.00 € 3,674.00
Ad € 196.00 € 295.00 € 416.00
Total Revenue € 1,940.00 € 2,952.00 € 4,090.00 € 22,157.15
Subscription/ Total 89.90% 90.01% 89.83%
Cost of Revenue € 1,714.00 € 2,551.00 € 3,241.00 € 15,510.00
Streaming Cost as % of Re 88.35% 86.42% 79.24% 70.00%
R&D 136 207 396 € 1,329.43
Sales & Marketing 219 368 567 € 1,107.86
G&A 106 175 274 € 1,336.18
R&D as % of Sales 7.01% 7.01% 9.68% 6.00%
Marketing Cost as % of Sal 11.29% 12.47% 13.86% 5.00%
G&A Cost as % of Sales 5.46% 5.93% 6.70% 6.03%
Operating Income -235 -349 -388 € 2,873.68
Operating Margin -12.11% -11.82% -9.49% 12.97%