Probability 5

Purnima Kaul
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Probability 5
HOMEWORK
Suppose in a deck of 20 cards, four cards each with the numbers 1, 2, 3,
4, 5. From this deck, 10 cards are drawn.
1) If cards are drawn with replacement, find the probability that each
of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 appear exactly twice.
2) If cards are drawn without replacement, find the probability that
each of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 appear exactly twice.
3) If cards are drawn without replacement, find the probability that
numbers x, y, z on first three cards satisfy x<y<z.
A pair of unbiased dice are rolled together till a sum of “either 5 or 7”
are obtained. Then find the probability that 5 comes before 7.

A. 5/11 B. 5/6

C. 6/11 D. 2/5
In a game, two players A and B take turns in throwing a pair of fair
dice starting with player A and total of scores on the two dice, in
each throw is noted. A wins the game if he throws a total of 6 before
B throws a total of 7 and B wins the game if he throws a total of 7
before A throws a total of six. The game stops as soon as either of
the players wins. The probability of A winning the game is :

A. 5/31 B. 31/61 C. 5/6 D. 30/31

(JEE Main 2020 4 sep)
The probability of a man hitting a target is 1/10 The least number of
shots required, so that the probability of his hitting the target at least
once is greater than 1/4 , is

(JEE Main 2020 4 sep)

Total Probability Theorem
Total Probability Theorem
Let E1, E2, …...En be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, with non-
zero probabilities, of a random experiment. If A be any arbitrary event of
the sample space of the above random experiment with P(A) > 0, then
Example 1:
A box contains three coins, one fair, one two-headed, and one is weighted such
that (P(H) = ⅓ ). A coin is selected at random and thrown. Find the probability that
head appears.

→ Fair

→ Doubly headed

→ Weighted
A bag contains 4 red and 3 black balls. A second bag contains 2 red and 4
black balls. One bag is selected at random. From the selected bag, one ball is
drawn. Find the probability that ball drawn is red.
A bag contains 4 white and 5 black balls. A second bag contains 6 white and 7
black balls. A ball is transferred from first to second bag, and then a ball is
drawn from the second bag. Find the probability that ball drawn is white.
A bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls. A second bag contains 3 white and
5 black balls. 2 balls are transferred from first to second bag, and then
2 balls are drawn from the second bag. Find the probability that balls drawn
are white and black.
Bayes Theorem
Example 1:
A box contains three coins, one fair, one two-headed, and one is weighted such
that (P(H) = ⅓ ). A coin is selected at random and thrown. Given that head
appears, find the probability that coin was fair.

→ Fair

→ Doubly headed

→ Weighted
Bayes Theorem
If an event A can occur only with one of the n pairwise mutually exclusive
and exhaustive events B1, B2, ….Bn & if the conditional probabilities of the
events.

P(A/B1), P(A/B2) …… P(A/Bn) are known the,

Bag A contains 3 white and 2 black balls. Bag B contains 2 white
and 2 black balls. One ball are drawn at random from A and
transferred to B. One ball are selected at random from B and are
found to be white. The probability that the transferred ball are
white are

A. 8/13 B. 5/13
C. 4/13 D. 9/13
In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C manufacture
respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bolts. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2
percent are respectively defective bolt. A bolts are drawn at random from
the product and are found to be defective. What are the probability that it
are manufactured by the machine B?
In a group of 400 people, 160 are smokers and non-vegetarian; 100
are smokers and vegetarian and the remaining 140 are non-smokers
and vegetarian. Their chances of getting a particular chestinongo
disorder are 35%, 20% and 10% respectively. A person is chosen from
the group at random and is found to be suffering from the chest
disorder. The probability that the selected person is a smoker and
non-vegetarian is:

A. 7/45 B. 8/45 C. 14/45 D. 28/45

In a test, an examinee either guesses or copies or knows the answer for
a multiple choice question having FOUR choices of which exactly one are
correct. The probability that he makes a guess are 1/3 and the
probability for copying are 1/6. The probability that hare answer are
correct, given that he copied it are 1/8. The probability that he knew the
answer, given that hare answer are correct are

A. 5/29 B. 9/29

C. 24/29 D. 20/29
In a test, an examinee either guesses or copies or knows the answer for
a multiple choice question having FOUR choices of which exactly more
than one options are correct. The probability that he makes a guess are
1/3 and the probability for copying are 1/6. The probability that hare
answer are correct, given that he copied it are 1/8. The probability that
he knew the answer, given that hare answer are correct are
A bag contains 4 white and 5 black balls. A second bag contains 3 white and 6
black balls. One bag is chosen randomly and a ball is drawn and its color is
noted and is replaced back in the same bag. The same is repeated for a total
of 4 times. As a result, 1 white and 3 black are noted. Find the probability that
chosen bag was first bag.
A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards, 2 are drawn
and found to be hearts. Find the probability that the missing card was a
heart.
A letter is known to have come from TATANAGAR or CALCUTTA. On the
envelope, just 2 consecutive letters TA are visible. Find the probability that
the letter was from 1) TATANAGAR 2) CALCUTTA.
A girl throws a die. If she gets a 5 or 6, she tosses coin thrice and notes
number of heads. If she gets 1, 2, 3 or 4, she tosses coin only once and notes
the result. If she obtained only 1 head, find the probability that she threw 1, 2,
3 or 4.
A bag has 3 biased coins whose probabilities of falling headwise are ⅓, ⅔ or ¾
respectively. A coin is drawn, tossed and noted to fall headwise. Find the
probability that the same coin when tossed again, falls headwise.
A bag has 6 red and 4 white balls. 4 balls are drawn one by one without
replacement and were found to be atleast 2 white. Find the probability that
the next draw will give white ball.
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