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Chapter 3 Discusiion Questions

This document contains questions about forecasting techniques discussed in Chapter 3. It asks about advantages and limitations of quantitative versus qualitative forecasting, consequences of poor forecasts, weaknesses of different forecasting approaches, why forecasts are generally wrong, establishing control limits, evaluating forecasts using MAD and MSE, advantages of exponential smoothing over moving averages, how the number of periods in a moving average affects responsiveness, factors that affect the exponential smoothing constant, and choosing the most appropriate forecasting technique given different scenarios.

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Reeja Baig
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316 views19 pages

Chapter 3 Discusiion Questions

This document contains questions about forecasting techniques discussed in Chapter 3. It asks about advantages and limitations of quantitative versus qualitative forecasting, consequences of poor forecasts, weaknesses of different forecasting approaches, why forecasts are generally wrong, establishing control limits, evaluating forecasts using MAD and MSE, advantages of exponential smoothing over moving averages, how the number of periods in a moving average affects responsiveness, factors that affect the exponential smoothing constant, and choosing the most appropriate forecasting technique given different scenarios.

Uploaded by

Reeja Baig
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 3: Forecasting

Discussion and Review Questions:


1. What are the main advantages that quantitative techniques for forecasting have over
qualitative techniques? What limitations do quantitative techniques have?

Ans.
2. What are some of the consequences of poor forecasts? Explain.

Ans.
3. List the specific weaknesses of each of these approaches to developing a forecast:

a. Consumer surveys.

Ans.

b. Salesforce composite.
c. Committee of managers or executives.

Ans.

4. Forecasts are generally wrong.

a. Why are forecasts generally wrong?

Ans.
b. Explain the term “wrong” as it pertains to a good forecast.

Ans.

5. What is the purpose of establishing control limits for forecast errors?

Ans.
6. What factors would you consider in deciding whether to use wide or narrow control
limits for forecasts?

Ans.

7. Contrast the use of MAD and MSE in evaluating forecasts.


Ans.
8. What advantages as a forecasting tool does exponential smoothing have over moving
averages?

Ans.
9. How does the number of periods in a moving average affect the responsiveness of the
forecast?

10. What factors enter into the choice of a value for the smoothing constant in exponential
smoothing?

Ans.
11. How accurate is your local five-day weather forecast? Support your answer with actual
data.
12. Explain how using a centered moving average with a length equal to the length of a
season eliminates seasonality from a time series.

13. Contrast the terms sales and demand.


14. Contrast the reactive and proactive approaches to forecasting. Give several examples of
types of organizations or situations in which each type is used.
15. Explain how flexibility in production systems relates to the forecast horizon and
forecast accuracy.

16. How is forecasting in the context of a supply chain different from forecasting for just a
single organization? List possible supply chain benefits and discuss potential difficulties in
doing supply chain forecasting.
17. Which type of forecasting approach, qualitative or quantitative, is better?
18. Suppose a software producer is about to release a new version of its popular software.
What information do you think it would take into account in forecasting initial sales?
19. Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive,
trend, or associative) that would be most appropriate for predicting:

a. Demand for Mother’s Day greeting cards.


b. Popularity of a new television series.

c. Demand for vacations on the moon.

d. The impact a price increase of 10 percent would have on sales of orange marmalade.

e. Demand for toothpaste in a particular supermarket

Ans.

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