DECEMBER 2018

DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES NO. 2018-37

The Boracay Closure: Socioeconomic Consequences

and Resilience Management

Celia M. Reyes, Jose Ramon G. Albert, Francis Mark A. Quimba,

Ma. Kristina P. Ortiz, and Ronina D. Asis

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 The Boracay Closure: Socioeconomic Consequences
and Resilience Management

Celia M. Reyes
Jose Ramon G. Albert
Francis Mark A. Quimba
Ma. Kristina P. Ortiz
Ronina D. Asis

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

December 2018

1
Abstract

For many years, the Boracay island in the province of Aklan has been a favorite tourist
destination in the country. The increasing influx of both international and local tourists, coupled
with the improper management of wastes and poor implementation of environmental policies
and guidelines, has aggravated the island’s environmental condition and sustainability. This
year, the government has decided to close down the island to address these critical concerns.
This study looks into the potential economic effects of this recent directive, which is intended
to last for six months from May to October 2018. Using secondary data, the study employs an
Input-Output and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model analyses. Three scenarios,
which are based on different percentage reductions in the Philippine tourism receipts, are
examined to look at the projected losses in total output and compensation, as well as its effects
on specific economic sectors. Results show that the aggregate economic loss in total output
would range from PHP20.8 billion to PHP83.15 billion, while in terms of income, the loss in
compensation would range from PHP 7 billion to PHP 27.9 billion. Tourism sectors would be
most affected, as well as agriculture and services, albeit slightly. Overall, while the results may
not be very significant at the national level, it will still have its direct and indirect effects to
people living in the island and in the entire municipality of Malay. The study recommends the
need to craft strategic and harmonized overall plan which lays out the various government
efforts to safeguard the welfare of those who will be severely affected by the sudden closure
of Boracay.

Keywords: Boracay closure, environmental sustainability, Philippine tourism, input-output

analysis, computable general equilibrium

2
Highlights of the Report

 For several years, the Boracay island has continuously attracted visitors, which
subsequently led to higher tourist receipts, with the peak of travel falling in
months of April to May. The island, part of the municipality of Malay in the province
of Aklan, has been known globally for its white sandy beaches. In recent years, growth
among foreign tourists has been significant particularly from South Korea and China.
In 2017, Boracay had as much as 2,001,974 visitors (about half of whom were
foreigners) up by 16.0 percent from 1,725,483 tourists in 2016. Correspondingly, tourist
receipts from the resort island have been steadily increasing from PHP 4.9 billion in
2001 to PHP 56.1 billion in 2017 or at an average rate of 16.5 percent. While tourists
travel throughout the year to visit the island, the peak of travel to Boracay is during
April to May as the island transitions from the rainy season to the dry season.

 Majority of the workers, as well as establishments, in Malay conduct

business/livelihood in Boracay. About 85.9 percent and 72.6 percent of the total
workers and businesses, respectively, in Malay operate in Boracay. Most of the workers
are employed in the passenger transport, accommodation and food and beverage
businesses and others such as banks/pawnshops/forex/lending/money transfer, laundry
shops, lessors/parking space/space rental, among others. Most businesses in the island
fall under the retail trade, travel agents, tour operators, and guides, and other
miscellaneous industries.

 The economic loss from the closure of Boracay may not be significant at the
national level, but it will still have its direct and indirect effects to people living in
Boracay and in the entire municipality of Malay.
o About 1.1 million tourists are expected to visit Boracay during the period May-
October 2018 and spend a total of Php 38.6 billion.
o The projected economic losses for the entire economy for the period May to
October 2018 were computed using the multiplier effects of tourism-related
sectors. Below is a summary of the results:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

5% reduction in PH 10% reduction in 20% reduction in
Tourism Receipts PH Tourism PH Tourism
Receipts Receipts
Projected Losses in
PHP 20.79 B PHP 41.57 B PHP 83.15 B
Total Output
Projected Losses in
PHP 6.97 B PHP 13.95 B PHP 27.89 B
Compensation
Notes: See section on Input-Output analysis for the specific description of each scenario.

o Using the estimated loss in tourist receipts in Boracay, the direct effects by
industry in the island are roughly as follows: 1) PHP 10 billion on
accommodation services for visitors; 2) PHP 9.7 billion on entertainment and
recreation services and shopping; 3) PHP 9.3 billion on food and beverage
serving services; 4) PHP 8.8 billion on transport services; and the remaining
PHP 0.8 billion on miscellaneous activities.

3
 o Based on the 2006 Input-Output (IO) and Computable General Equilibrium
(CGE) analyses that have been conducted, the following are the likely economic
impacts of the closing down of the island:
 Total output in the affected sectors will contract between 0.56 to 2.23
percent because of the reduction in the demand for tourism characteristic
products.
 While it is understandable that tourism services and transportation
would be affected the most, agriculture and manufacturing sectors
would also be affected due to their linkages with the tourism-related
sectors.
 Tourism sectors (i.e. travel, accommodations, restaurants, beauty and
recreation) would be most affected, as well as agriculture and services
albeit, slightly. The transmission mechanism of the impact of the
Boracay closure can be seen through the increase in prices resulting from
the reduction in the supply of tourist characteristic products.
 Based on the results of the CGE model, about 0.02 to 0.045 percent of
the gross domestic product (GDP) would be necessary to bring back the
households to the level of utility that they are enjoying before the closure
of Boracay.

 Government will need to provide some form of sustainable assistance especially to

low-income workers in the island and in mainland Malay who will be affected by
the six-month closure. While laborers and unskilled workers, who dominate the
occupation groups in Boracay island receive a daily wage of about 250 pesos, ranging
from 50 pesos to 625 pesos, a quarter of them receive only around 150 pesos.

 Improved policy implementation and governance, in addition to a more effective

coordination among stakeholders especially among government agencies and local
government, is crucial. Various government initiatives have already been
implemented in the past with the aim to look into the environmental situation of
Boracay and the impending sustainability issues. Despite these efforts, problems that
were long ago identified have greatly persisted. Part of the problem involves policy
implementation deficits and overall governance, including the tendency for government
agencies to formulate piecemeal policies and to work in silos, rather than adopting and
practicing a whole of government approach to Boracay development.

 The bigger issue is the very low compliance rate not just among business
establishments, but more alarmingly, among residential customers who stay in the
island. Aside from business establishments, the sewerage systems of the residential
buildings are not properly integrated in the island. Data from the Department of
Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) and Boracay Island Water Company
(BIWC) suggest that merely two thirds (383) of 578 business customers of the BIWC
and about one in twenty (217) of (4,331) BIWC residential customers are connected to
the BIWC sewerage treatment plant. More so, households covered by the Boracay Tubi
System, Inc., the other water concessionaire in the island, have been reported to be not
at all connected to the sewerage system.

 There is a need to craft a strategic and concrete overall plan which details the
various government efforts to safeguard the welfare of those who will be severely
affected by the sudden closure of Boracay. Recently, several national government

4
 agencies have already signified their respective plans to help mitigate the negative
impacts of the closure to the workers. For instance, the Department of Labor and
Employment (DOLE), in cooperation with the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and
Industry and the local government of Malay, is planning to implement livelihood
programs (e.g. clean-up jobs) and provide assistance albeit limited budget. The
Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) will also provide alternative employment by
giving opportunities, loans, and training activities to the workers who will be displaced
and also help them migrate to other potential tourist areas. The Department of Social
Welfare and Development (DSWD) is currently preparing an assistance plan for
Boracay through its regular programs and services. Meanwhile, the government could
also look into the existing mechanisms for providing cash assistance to poor displaced
workers. One such mechanism is the distribution of the cash transfer of the 4Ps program
although this would only be limited to 4Ps beneficiaries.

 In the matter of cash transfer, options include the provision of a monthly cash
assistance or one-time lump-sum transfer. The latter may be more preferable since
this can allow the use of the cash transfer for entrepreneurial activities.

 Several government agencies which have pledged assistance to displaced workers

may need to prioritize poor and low-wage workers. It is likely that the number of
jobs that can be provided will be less than the number of displaced workers. Thus, the
issue of targeting has to be addressed. Priority should be given to the poor and low-
wage workers. Self-targeting will be achieved by the design of the employment
program. For instance, offering wages at the minimum wage level will attract poor
workers.

 The results of this study point to the need for a registry of residents in any
barangay. This makes it easier to identify would-be-affected residents resulting from
shocks. A Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) would be useful tool in
generating such database. Malay is scheduled to implement its CBMS this year but has
yet to start data collection.

5
 Table of Contents

1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 7

2. Profile of Boracay Island ................................................................................................ 7

3. Aggregate Economic Losses from Closure ................................................................ 14

3.1. Analysis of Secondary Data ...................................................................................... 14
3.2. Input-Output Analysis ............................................................................................... 18
3.3. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis ................................................................ 21

4. Ways Forward ............................................................................................................... 23

References ........................................................................................................................ 26

List of Tables

Table 1. Number of Workers in Boracay and Malay, by Major Industry ................................. 8

Table 2. Distribution of Persons in Boracay, Mainland Malay, and entire Malay
by poverty status and major occupation as of December 2017 ............................... 9
Table 3. Visitor Arrivals and Visitor Receipts in Boracay, 2001- 2017 ................................. 11
Table 4. Share of Tourist Arrivals, Boracay and Philippines ................................................ 15
Table 5. Revenue Generation Program, Municipality of Malay ............................................ 17
Table 6. Impact to final output by sector and by scenario .................................................... 19
Table 7. Reduction in Final Demand on Tourism-Related Sectors (in million PHP), 2006 ... 20
Table 8. Derived Output and Income Multipliers, 2006 IO Table ......................................... 20
Table 9. Output Effects using May to Oct 2018 Projected Receipts in Boracay (in PHP M) . 21
Table 10. Income Effects using May to Oct 2018 Projected Receipts in Boracay (in PHP
M) ....................................................................................................................................... 21
Table 11. Percent change in the output, by sector .............................................................. 22
Table 12. Change in the supply price of the ith good ........................................................... 22
Table 13. Change in household consumption of the ith good .............................................. 23
Table 14. Percent Change in exports .................................................................................. 23
Table 15. Selected Statistics on Daily Wages in Aklan by major occupation
April-September 2017 ......................................................................................... 24

List of Figures

Figure 1. Percentage Distribution of Workers and Businesses in Boracay, by Major Industry 9

Figure 2. Number of Tourist Arrivals in 2017 by Month........................................................ 11
Figure 3. Trends in tourist arrivals, 2011-2017 .................................................................... 14
Figure 4. Tourist arrivals in Malay, Aklan by month, 2017 ................................................... 15
Figure 5. Distribution of Foreign tourists by residence, 2017 ............................................... 16
Figure 6. Inbound tourism expenditure by product, 2017..................................................... 16
Figure 7. Total Tourist Receipts in Boracay and the Philippines .......................................... 17

6
 The Boracay closure: Socioeconomic consequences and resilience management

Celia M. Reyes, Jose Ramon G. Albert, Francis Mark A. Quimba,

Ma. Kristina P. Ortiz, and Ronina D. Asis *

1. Introduction

To address ecological issues that have hounded Boracay Island for over two decades, the
government has decided to close the island from entry of local and foreign tourists for six
months starting April 26, 2018. This decision is based on a unanimous recommendation of an
inter-agency task force of the national government comprising the Department of Environment
and Natural Resources (DENR), the Department of Local Government (DILG) and the
Department of Tourism (DOT). Further, the DILG has also proposed earlier the declaration of
a state of calamity1 for six months and a two-month commercial shutdown to speed up the
rehabilitation of the island, located 315 kilometers south of Metro Manila.

Boracay, part of the municipality of Malay in the province of Aklan, has been known globally
for its white sandy beaches. Since 2005, the island has been administered by the Philippine
Tourism Authority (PTA) and the provincial government of Aklan. In 2017, the island has
attracted over two million tourists, slightly less than half of whom were foreign tourists, while
the rest were Filipinos (including overseas Filipinos). While tourism has an impact on the
economy as it creates jobs, as well as promotes local culture and products, tourism must also
be sustainable, i.e., it should account for impacts on the environment. Sustainable addresses
present needs of visitors, the tourism industry, the environment and host communities, without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987).

Given the interest of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies to study issues of long
term consequences, several of its research staff have come up with this paper which firstly
describes socio economic conditions in Boracay, including environmental issues. The paper
then discusses ways forward in rehabilitation as well as the likely implications to the island’s
closure, together with concrete recommendations for managing the resilience of people to be
affected.

2. Profile of Boracay Island

Boracay consists not only of its 10.32 square kilometers of area in the island, but also its people
and their livelihoods. As of August 2015, the entire island had a population count of 32,267
across its three barangays Manoc-Manoc, Balabag and Yapak, while mainland Malay had
20,706 residents. These figures were obtained from the mid-decade population census
(POPCEN) conducted by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The total population in the
island accounted for three-fifths of the entire population of Malay, Aklan where the island
*
The authors are president, senior research fellow, research fellow, and research assistants, respectively of the Philippine
Institute for Development Studies. They wish to acknowledge helpful discussions with colleagues Vicente B. Paqueo, Aniceto C.
Orbeta, Jr., and Roehlano M. Briones.
1
Republic Act No. 10121, also known as the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010, allows the President of the
Philippines, upon the recommendation of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, to declare a state of
calamity in area. A state of calamity is defined as a condition involving mass casualty and/or major damages to property,
disruption of means of livelihoods, roads and normal way of life of people in the affected areas as a result of the occurrence of
natural or human-induced hazard. Proclaiming Boracay to be in a state of calamity would allow for price control for basic
commodities, provision of zero-interest loans, the use of calamity funds for rehabilitation coupled with speedy procurement of
services for rehabilitation.

7
belongs. As in most areas of the country, the population in Boracay has been increasing over
the years. Rough projections put the total number of current residents in Boracay and the entire
Malay at 34,880 and 57,797, respectively in 2018.

Residents of Boracay and mainland Malay are directly or indirectly affected by tourism in the
resort island. As of December 2017, the local government of Malay reports that there have
been around 4 thousand five hundred registered businesses/livelihoods with over 17 thousand
workers employed across the entire municipality.

Table 1. Number of Workers in Boracay and Malay, by Major Industry

Workers Registered Businesses
Major Industries
Boracay Malay % Share Boracay Malay % Share
Accommodation and food and beverage 4,439 4,711 94.2 91 114 79.8
Passenger transport 6,478 7,645 84.7 269 346 77.7
Recreation, entertainment and cultural 1,264 1,329 95.1 248 270 91.9
Retail trade on tourism-characteristic 884 1,101 80.3 800 1,062 75.3
Travel Agents, tour operators and tourism guides 269 336 80.1 489 611 80
Miscellaneous 1,466 2,107 69.6 1,374 2,101 65.4
Total 14,800 17,229 85.9 3,271 4,504 72.6
Notes:
1. Accommodation and food and beverage contains the following businesses: bakery, bar &
restaurant/eatery/kitchenette, boarding house, resorts/hotels/cottages, real estate brokerage, vendor of
fruits/meat/seafood/vegetables, and water refilling station/water distributor.
2. Passenger transport includes ATV/bug car rental, aquasports/dive shops/sea sports, e-trike, motorbike
for rent, motorboat, paraw, tricycle cargoes, and tricycles.
3. Recreation includes amusement/recreation center, beauty parlor & barber shop, internet
café/computer center/video shops, manicurist and masseurs, souvenir shop/boutique/arts and crafts,
spa and massage clinics, tattoo shop/association
4. Retail trade covers drugstores/medical clinics, rice/feeds retailer/wholesaler, sari-sari stores, vendors
5. Travel includes airlines/travel and tours/ticketing/booking office
6. Miscellaneous includes associations/cooperatives/foundation,
banks/pawnshops/forex/lending/money transfer, hardware/const./Alum./Glass supply, hauling services,
laundry shops, lessors/parking space/space rental, mobile photographers, school, and others.
Source of basic data: Local government of Malay

As shown in Table 1, 85.9 percent of the workers in Malay conduct livelihood activities in
Boracay. Most of these workers are employed in the passenger transport (43.8 percent),
accommodation and food and beverage businesses (30 percent), and others such as
banks/pawnshops/forex/lending/money transfer, laundry shops, lessors/parking space/space
rental, among others (9.9 percent). On top of the workers in the registered businesses in Malay,
there are reportedly around 19 thousand unregistered workers in the island that would also be
affected by the temporary closure of Boracay. Over 3 thousand of the
establishments/businesses (comprising about three fifths of all the registered establishments in
Malay) in Malay are in Boracay where most fall under the retail trade (24.5 percent), travel
agents, tour operators, and guides (14.9 percent), and other miscellaneous industries (42
percent) (Figure 1).

8
Figure 1. Percentage Distribution of Workers and Businesses in Boracay, by Major Industry
100
9.9
90 1.8
6.0
80 8.5 42.0
70

60

50 43.8 14.9

40

30 24.5

20
30.0 7.6
10
8.2
0 2.8
Workers Businesses

Accommodation and food and beverage Passenger transport

Recreation, entertainment and cultural Retail trade on tourism-charactersitic
Travel Agents, tour operators and tourism guides Miscellaneous

Source of basic data: Local government of Malay

Data from the 2015 Listahanan 2, conducted by the Department of Social Welfare and
Development (DSWD) to identify poor households in need of social protection, provides a
picture of the living conditions in Boracay Island. Table 2, for instance, shows the distribution
of persons in the Listahanan database by major occupation and by poverty status. Most persons
in Boracay, especially among the poor, are laborers and unskilled workers, though among the
non-poor in Boracay, plant and machine operators and assemblers are slightly more dominant
than laborers and unskilled workers. Even in Mainland Malay, laborers and unskilled workers,
as well as plant and machine operators and assemblers are the most dominant occupations.

Table 2. Distribution of Persons in Boracay, Mainland Malay, and entire Malay by poverty status
and major occupation as of December 2017
Boracay Mainland Malay Malay
Major Occupation Poor Non- Total Poor Non- Total Poor Non- Total
poor poor poor
Special Occupations 57 149 206 6 49 55 63 198 261

2
The Listahanan, also referred to as the National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction (NHTS-PR), is an
information management system first developed in 2008/2009 and maintained by DSWD to provide social protection stakeholders
with information on who and where the poor are in the Philippines. The system makes use of data sourced from (46 variables
collected in) a four-page family assessment form, coupled with a proxy means test procedure (to estimate family income from
observable and verifiable proxy indicators of income such as materials used in housing structure, family’s access to basic services
and facilities, and asset ownership), and validation processes to determine economic conditions of families and identify the poor.
The current proxy means test procedure involves two stages of models to estimate the poverty status of the household. See
Information sourced from Listahanan has been used for the identification and selection of potential beneficiaries for various
poverty alleviation and social protection programs at DSWD, including the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (the
government’s conditional cash transfer program) and the Social Pension (SocPen) program that provides social assistance to
poor elderly individuals (who do not have any form of pension or regular income/support from family). Data from Listahanan has
also been used for distribution of health cards to poor households by PhilHealth, the state-run health insurance. The DSWD has
subsequently updated Listahanan in 2015 and has plans to further update the database in 2019.

9
 Gov't and Special 9 158 167 11 211 222 20 369 389
Interest Org. Officials,
Corp. Executives,
Managers or
Proprietors,
Supervisors
Professionals 11 188 199 7 172 179 18 360 378
Technicians and 11 153 164 21 311 332 32 464 496
Associate Professionals
Clerks 2 87 89 13 265 278 15 352 367
Service Workers and 39 331 370 51 631 682 90 962 1,052
Shop and Market Sales
Workers
Farmers, Forestry 27 77 104 150 278 428 177 355 532
Workers and
Fishermen
Trades and Related 41 172 213 60 333 393 101 505 606
Workers
Plant and Machine 47 483 530 108 1,000 1,108 155 1,483 1,638
Operators and
Assemblers
Laborers and Unskilled 143 424 567 329 1,301 1,630 472 1,725 2,197
Workers
None 1,538 4,270 5,808 2,447 7,965 10,412 3,985 12,235 16,220
Total 1,925 6,492 8,417 3,203 12,516 15,719 5,128 19,008 24,136
Source: 2015 Listahanan, Department of Social Welfare and Development

Tourism development in Boracay has changed its people’s living conditions significantly, with
their livelihoods which originally involved in subsistence agriculture and fishing activities,
shifting to occupations dependent on tourism (Trousdale, 1999; Takashi et al., 2011).

Data on barangay characteristics obtained during the 2015 POPCEN suggest that while
Boracay Island has access to a national highway, all the three barangays in Boracay are more
than two kilometers from the highway. This sense of remoteness and serenity, coupled with
the white powder beaches and rich marine life provides Boracay its attraction to visitors.
Tourist head counts in Boracay have been increasing annually for two decades, except in 1997
when tourist arrivals dropped significantly by 60 percent due to scares regarding the rising
coliform bacteria from poor sewage and septic system in the resort island. At that time, the
government established a potable water supply system, a sewage treatment plant, and a solid
waste disposal system.

In recent years, growth among foreign tourists has been significant particularly from South
Korea and China. While tourists travel throughout the year to visit the island, the peak of travel
to Boracay is during April to May (see Figure 2) as the island transitions from the rainy season
to the dry season. The most popular of its beaches is White Beach, stretching four kilometers,
one of the longest of its kind in Asia. Most of tourism development is focused along Barangay
Balabag, where White Beach is located. Leading alternatives to Boracay in Southeast Asia are
Bali and Phuket in Indonesia and Thailand, respectively. Bali is visited most during July,
August and December, while travel peak season for Phuket is November to February.

10
Figure 2. Number of Tourist Arrivals in 2017 by Month
250

200

150
Thousands

100

50

0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

ASEAN EAST ASIA SOUTH ASIA MIDDLE EAST NORTH AMERICA

SOUTH AMERICA WEST EUROPE NORTH EUROPE SOUTH EUROPE EAST EUROPE
AUSTRALIA/PAC. AFRICA OTHERS DOMESTIC OVERSEAS FILIPINO

Source: Municipal Tourism Office, Municipality of Malay

From 2001 to 2017, visitor head counts and tourist receipts in Boracay have been consistently
increasing every year (Table 3). The highest increase in visitor arrivals in Boracay was in 2012
at 32.7 percent growth. In 2017, Boracay had as much as 2,001,974 visitors (about half of
whom were foreigners) up by 16.0 percent from 1,725,483 tourists in 2016. Correspondingly,
tourist receipts from the resort island have been steadily increasing from PhP 4.9 billion in
2001 to PhP 56.1 billion in 2017 or at an average rate of 16.5 percent. According to the National
Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), revenues from Boracay account for merely
0.1 percent of the gross domestic product, which measures the country’s economic activity.

Table 3. Visitor Arrivals and Visitor Receipts in Boracay, 2001- 2017

Visitor Receipts
Year Visitor Arrivals
(in PHP million)
2001 264,807 4,868.05
2002 300,792 5,529.58
2003 339,434 6,239.95
2004 428,755 7,881.97
2005 499,457 9,181.72
2006 554,181 10,187.73
2007 596,707 10,969.50
2008 634,263 11,659.91
2009 649,559 11,941.10
2010 779,666 14,332.91
2011 908,874 16,708.21
2012 1,206,228 22,175.01
2013 1,363,611 25,067.62
2014 1,472,352 27,066.84
2015 1,560,106 43,950.00
2016 1,725,483 48,895.47

11
 Visitor Receipts
Year Visitor Arrivals
(in PHP million)
2017 2,001,974 56,147.74
Source: Virola, et al. (2011) and Aklan Provincial Tourism Office as compiled by the authors

The government has opted to close Boracay Island for six months to address improper
management of wastes and other environmental problems in the world-renowned tourist
destination. The sewerage system is not properly integrated in the island for businesses and
residents alike. Data from DENR and Boracay Island Water Company (BIWC) suggest that
merely two thirds (383) of 578 business customers of BIWC and about one in twenty (217) of
(4,331) BIWC residential customers are connected to the BIWC sewerage treatment plant
(Macaraeg, 2018). Meanwhile, households covered by the Boracay Tubi System, Inc. are not
at all connected to the sewerage system (Villanueva, 2018). According to the DENR, of the
2,700 establishments in the island, as many as 842 have been violating sewer and solid waste
laws. Only one in five (18%) DOT-accredited hotels and restaurants are connected to the main
sewer system, while the rest of these establishments dispose their waste-water by tapping into
sewer lines that drain into the sea. Despite the implementation of the Malay LGU Ordinance
No. 307 in 2012, which states the need for businesses and households to connect to the Boracay
sewerage system, compliance among firms and residential customers has remained very weak.
In 2014, the DENR Environmental Management Bureau (EMB) Region 6 reported through the
Water Quality Monitoring Report, that Brgy. Balabag (location of White Beach) had violated
the quality standard on total coliform concentration of the drainage outfall. It was noted that
domestic wastes originating from unconnected residential and business establishments go
directly to the drainage canal and empty in the coastal waters in Bulabog area which
consequently flows through the coastal waters of Boracay. In the same report, the DENR EMB
found the island’s non-compliance to the oil and grease water quality standard owing primarily
to the operations of motorized pump boards for commercial and transportation purposes.

Further, the DENR suggests that five out of nine wetland areas have been destroyed by
establishments and illegal settlers. Thus far, the DENR has recently closed more than 50
establishments found to have violated water, waste management, and land use regulations, with
more closures expected once the sewerage pipes are unearthed and a thorough audit of land use
is undertaken.

In 1978, Boracay was one of the islands in the country declared as “tourist zones and marine
reserves.” 3 Nearly three decades later, Proclamation 1064 4 series of 2006 classified Boracay
Island into 400 hectares of reserved forest land for protection purposes and 628.96 hectares of
agricultural land (alienable and disposable). The Supreme Court affirmed this proclamation in
2008. As a result of the Proclamation 1064 and the Supreme Court decision affirming this
proclamation, the DOT initiated a comprehensive land use plan for Boracay Island that set
limits on island developments. Further, the DENR came up with the Forest Land Use
Agreement for Tourism Purposes (FLAgT) 5 to mitigate the impact on the land ownership crisis
affecting businesses operating within the 400-hectares declared as forest lands. The DENR also
has formulated the Boracay Environmental MasterPlan, covering the period 2008-2033, which
provides for the island’s development directions, strategies and specific programs and projects

3
Proclamation 1801, Series of 1978, Declaring Certain Islands, Coves And Peninsulas In The Philippines As Tourist Zones And
Marine Reserve Under The Administration And Control Of The Philippine Tourism Authority. 10 November 1978.
4
Proclamation 1064, series of 2006. Classifying Boracay Island Situated In The Municipality Of Malay, Province Of Aklan Into
Forestland (Protection Purposes) And Into Agricultural Land (Alienable And Disposable) Pursuant To Presidential Decree No.
705 (Revised Forestry Reform Code Of The Philippines)
5
DENR Administrative Order 2004-28-Rules and Regulations Governing the Use of Forestlands for Tourism Purposes

12
that would address identified environmental concerns. Further, in support of sustainable
tourism, the DENR has enacted Administrative Order 2013-19, also called the “Guidelines on
Ecotourism Planning and Management in Protected Areas” (DENR, 2013). However, part of
the problem involves policy implementation deficits and overall governance, including the
tendency for government agencies to formulate piecemeal policies and to work in silos, rather
than adopting and practicing a whole of government 6 approach to Boracay development.
Current laws mandate that no man-made structure, whether permanent or movable, can be
installed on a 30-meter stretch between the high-tide mark and the buildings, yet,
establishments continue to encroach on the protected zones thus continuing to decrease the size
of Boracay beaches.

Throughout the years, several studies have indicated a variety of critical issues that threaten
the island's environment. Two decades ago, warnings were given that the sheer volume of
people, the improper solid waste management practices, and lack of effective governance in
Boracay have put severe pressures on carrying capacities of the island (Trousdale, 1997;
Trousdale,1999). The sewage problem in Boracay was found to be the main cause of stress to
the coastal and marine degradation, particularly the depletion of coral cover in the seas
surrounding the resort island (Goreau et al., 1997). According to DENR, solid-waste generation
in Boracay is estimated at 2.25 kilos per person, totaling 90 tons per day, but only 30 tons of
garbage are actually collected and brought out of the island.

A research undertaking from 2010 to 2015 supported by the Japan International Cooperation
Agency (JICA) under its Coastal Ecosystem Conservation and Adaptive Management
(CECAM) 7 concludes that the coral reef ecosystem of Boracay has been seriously degraded by
tourism-related activities. Making use of geospatial technology from satellite images, the
CECAM study has pointed out that coral cover in Boracay declined from 1988 to 2011 by
about 70.5%, with the highest decrease in coral cover observed between 2008 and 2011 when
visitor head counts increased by 38.4%. The JICA-supported study also has suggested that
unmonitored snorkeling and diving activities in coral rich areas have contributed to damage
sustained by corals. According to sediment analysis, the talcum-like white sands in the island
are mostly from coral fragments and the seaweed Halimeda. Further, coral reefs are also
reported to lessen the impact of strong waves to the beaches, hence protecting the Boracay
beaches from sand erosion.

In several parts of Boracay, coastal water quality level has been found to be poor (Limates et
al., 2016), owing to both natural and anthropogenic sources of pollution, such as the inflowing
underground water and surface freshwater, the sewage discharge, coastal sea water dynamics,
geological, geographic characteristics of the area, weather and climate. The direct discharge of
partially treated and untreated domestic waste water from residents and commercial
establishments is however the major source of poor water quality levels in Boracay, which, in
turn, yields frequent algal blooms and coral reef deterioration. Other factors known to have
contributed to coral degradation include unregulated fishing and (Goreau 2007; Tan et al.
2016).

6
Whole of government is defined by OECD (2006) as a public-sector management approach “where a government actively uses
formal and/or informal networks across the different agencies within that government to coordinate the design and implementation
of the range of interventions that the government’s agencies will be making in order to increase the effectiveness of those
interventions in achieving the desired objectives”
7
https://www.jica.go.jp/philippine/english/office/topics/news/150528.html

13
3. Aggregate Economic Losses from Closure

To assess the aggregate impact of the Boracay 6-month closure to the national economy, the
following methodology was undertaken:
1. Using publicly available data on the arrival of foreign and local tourists, expenditure
receipts, share to the total economy, the contribution of Boracay to the national
economy was firstly estimated.
2. Employing the 2006 Input-Output table 8, the linkages of the tourism industry to the rest
of the economy were examined. From (1), the reduction in the demand for tourism
services was then measured through the combined effects to the other industries.
3. Complementing the analysis from (2), we analyzed the impact of the Boracay closure
using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which also provides the
magnitude of the impact on other industries. The CGE model also provided an estimate
of the equivalent variation as a proportion of GDP, a monetary estimate of the cost of
bringing back the economy to the previous level.

3.1. Analysis of Secondary Data

To preliminarily estimate the impact of the closure of Boracay to the national economy, we
firstly examine the tourism industry in the area in terms of the number of tourists and the
amount of expenditure. As pointed out in the previous section, data from the Municipal
Tourism office of Malay, Aklan, suggested that a total of 2 million tourists arrived in Boracay
in 2017. Further, historical data indicated that more domestic tourists arrived in Boracay
relative to foreign visitors except in the last three years (from 2015 onwards). The share of
domestic and foreign tourist arrivals in 2017 is relatively the same at 49 percent with overseas
Filipinos accounting for the remainder (Figure 3). In the past years, tourist arrivals in Boracay
also accounted for about one-third of the total arrivals in the Philippines (Table 4).

Figure 3. Trends in tourist arrivals, 2011-2017

2,500

2,000

1,500
Thousands

1,000

500

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Domestic Foreign Overseas Filipino

Source: Municipal Tourism Office, Municipality of Malay, Aklan

8
The authors opted to use the 2006 IO Table since this contains greater disaggregation than that of the 2012 IO Table. Such
disaggregation allows the identification of tourism-related characteristics such as beauty and recreation, restaurants,
accommodation, among others.

14
Table 4. Share of Tourist Arrivals, Boracay and Philippines
Overseas Filipino Domestic Foreign Total Boracay
Year % % % as % of
Number Number Number Boracay Philippines
Share Share Share Philippines
2011 33,102 3.6 515,751 56.7 360,021 39.6 908,874 3,917,454 23.2
2012 42,094 3.5 690,872 57.3 473,262 39.2 1,206,228 4,272,811 28.2
2013 42,691 3.1 705,402 51.7 615,518 45.1 1,363,611 4,681,307 29.1
2014 44,254 3 745,266 50.6 682,832 46.4 1,472,352 4,833,368 30.5
2015 42,529 2.7 745,266 47.9 769,560 49.4 1,557,355 5,360,682 29.1
2016 43,416 2.5 813,302 47.1 868,765 50.3 1,725,483 5,967,005 28.9
2017 42,060 2.1 972,994 48.6 986,920 49.3 2,001,974 6,620,908 30.2
Source: Municipal Tourism Office, Municipality of Malay, Aklan

Figure 4. Tourist arrivals in Malay, Aklan by month, 2017

160

140

120

100
Thousands

80

60

40

20

0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

FOREIGN DOMESTIC OVERSEAS FILIPINO

Source: Municipal Tourism Office, Municipality of Malay, Aklan

15
Figure 5. Distribution of Foreign tourists by residence, 2017

3% 2%2%
4%
4%

5%

44%
9%

13%

14%

Korea China Philippines OFWs USA Taiwan Australia UK Singapore Germany

Source: Municipality of Malay, Aklan

Figure 6. Inbound tourism expenditure by product, 2017

1%

12% 1- Accommodation services for

0%
visitors
26%
2-Food and beverage serving services

13% 3-Transport services

4-Travel agencies and other

reservation services
1%
5-Entertainment and recreation
services
6.a-Shopping

23% 24% 7-Miscellaneous

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

16
Figure 7. Total Tourist Receipts in Boracay and the Philippines
250 25

200 20

150 15
Billion PhP

Percentage
100 10

50 5

0 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Boracay, Tourist Receipts Philippines, Tourist Receipts As % of Philippine Total

Source: Municipality of Malay, Aklan

Table 5. Revenue Generation Program, Municipality of Malay

Revenue Item, In Million Pesos 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tax Revenues
Real Property Tax (Mun. Share) 14.52 14.53 16.87 14.95 14.91 20.65
Business Tax 46.44 51.60 65.11 75.40 86.42 105.62
Other Taxes 4.45 9.81 4.45 5.09 3.78 4.33
Non-Tax Revenues - - - - - -
Regulatory Fees 27.28 33.25 56.57 45.20 52.91 54.18
Service/User Charges 108.38 128.24 129.12 148.58 169.29 192.15
Receipt from Economic Enterprises 8.14 9.28 11.99 15.22 15.90 19.86
Other Income/Receipts 3.72 2.77 5.54 1.77 1.66 1.08
TOTAL LOCAL SOURCE 214.93 249.50 289.65 306.20 344.86 398.07
EXTERNAL SOURCES
Internal Revenue Allotments 48.35 65.45 74.21 84.71 93.41 110.44
Grants/Donations 5.00 0.25 - 1.00 - -
Share E-VAT - 0.81 - - - -
Share LOTTO 0.43 0.86 0.66 0.89 1.01 1.30
Inter-Local Transfers - - - - - -
TOTAL EXTERNAL SOURCE 53.79 67.37 74.87 86.60 94.43 111.74
TOTAL GENERAL Fund 268.71 316.87 264.52 392.80 439.29 509.81
SPECIAL EDUCATION FUND (SEF)
INCOME SOURCES
Tax Revenues
Real Property Tax (Mun. Share) 18.15 17.97 20.16 18.55 18.63 26.06
Other Receipt 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.06
- - - - - -

17
 TOTAL SEF 18.20 18.03 20.21 18.60 18.68 26.12
TOTAL GENERAL & SEF 286.92 334.91 384.73 411.40 457.97 535.93
Source of basic data: LGU of Malay, Treasury Office

The Treasury Office of the municipality of Malay reported that 98 percent of its annual
revenues come from the Boracay island. Collections under service/user charges (coming from
environmental fees in Boracay), regulatory fees, business taxes, and real property taxes serve
as the municipality’s main source of income. These fund sources will also be immensely
affected once the closure of the island pushes through. Foreseeing the negative implications to
those revenue sources, the current trend of the municipality’s internal revenue allotment (IRA) 9
may not be able to sustain the needs of the LGU in the coming months. In 2016, Malay’s IRA
stood only at 0.85 percent and 0.06 percent of the total IRA of all the municipalities in Region
VI and the Philippines, respectively10.

3.2. Input-Output Analysis

The input-output (IO) table reflects a snapshot of the economy for a given period by presenting
the process of production, the use of goods and services produced, and the income generated
in that production. The Philippines’ 2006 IO table is an n x n matrix wherein the total inputs
(column total) are equal to total outputs (row total). For any column j of the IO table, the row
value of the transaction matrix reflects the amount of output of that row that is used by that
column as an input.
The IO Accounts provide a link between the final demand and industrial output levels in the
country. It determines the effect of changes in the level of the final demand on total output as
given by the following equation:

∆𝑋𝑋 = [𝐼𝐼 − 𝐴𝐴]−1 ∆𝐷𝐷

where 𝑋𝑋 is total output, 𝐷𝐷 is the final demand and [𝐼𝐼 − 𝐴𝐴]−1 is the Leontief inverse.

How can we measure the impact of the closure of a relatively localized economy, such as
Boracay Island, to the entire country? The analysis can be done using the Input-Output table
and some reasonable assumptions 11. Data from PSA suggests that Boracay has contributed
about 20 percent to total Philippine tourism receipts or about PHP 48.9 billion in 2016. Under
the assumption that domestic and foreign tourists would behave differently when faced with
the closure, the Philippines would only be losing a small portion of the 20 percent tourism
receipts. Limitations in available data prevent modeling an accurate distribution of the loss
from the closure differentiating between domestic and local tourists but it would be safe to
assume that domestic tourists would be more likely to divert to other tourist spots in the
country, thereby preserving tourist receipts. As for foreign tourists, their capacity to proceed to
other tourist spots in the country would be dependent on their knowledge of other tourist spots,
as well as their spending power.

To examine the impacts when not all of the tourists are diverted to other destinations, we
consider three scenarios, viz.,

1. Scenario 1 (5% reduction in Philippine tourism receipts): a scenario where only a modest 5

9
About 26 percent of Malay’s total local sources of income in 2016
10
Source of basic data: Bureau of Local Government Finance and LGU of Malay
11
Further research would be necessary to validate the assumptions made in this paper.

18
percent decline in tourism receipts, accounting for the fact that Boracay has remained open in
the first 4 months of 2017 and possibly in the last quarter of 2017;

2. Scenario 2 (10% reduction in Philippine tourism receipts): another scenario where all foreign
receipts would be lost but domestic tourists would divert to other tourist spots resulting to only
half of the 20 percent of the Boracay revenue would be lost;

3. Scenario 3 (20% reduction in Philippine tourism receipts): the worst case scenario where
all of the 20 percent of the tourist receipts from Boracay would be lost. This means that the
tourists who were intending to visit Boracay were not diverted to any other tourist destination
in the Philippines.
Further, we identify the specific industries that would be affected by the reduction in
expenditure from tourist receipts. For our analysis, these are: Accommodation services for
visitors, Food and beverage serving services, Transport services, Travel agencies and other
reservation services, Entertainment and recreation services and shopping as these are the
industries that produce tourism characteristic products. Given the scenario, total final demand
for all these sectors would be reduced equally. Table 5 presents the results of the IO analysis.

Table 6. Impact to final output by sector and by scenario

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Sectors
5% 10% 20%
Agriculture -0.26 -0.52 -1.04
Industry -0.37 -0.75 -1.49
Services -0.2 -0.4 -0.8
Transport -3.75 -7.5 -14.99
Travel -4.66 -9.33 -18.66
Accommodation -4.46 -8.91 -17.83
Restaurants -4.83 -9.65 -19.3
Beauty and Recreation -5 -10 -20
Total Output -0.56 -1.12 -2.23
Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

Because the IO analysis is linear in nature, the resulting scenarios tend to have a linear impact
with Scenario 1 having an impact that is half of that of scenario 2 while scenario 3 is twice that
of scenario 2. While it is understandable that transportation and tourism services would be
affected the most, agriculture and manufacturing sectors would also be affected.

Particularly, the total output of transportation sector would decrease by about 3.8 to 15 percent.
Assuming that this 2006 IO Analysis applies to the current structure of the economy, such
decline in transportation sector’s output in 2017 would be equivalent to an amount ranging
from PHP 16.6 billion (Scenario 1) to PHP 66.2 billion (Scenario 3). The agriculture sector
would also shrink by a considerable amount ranging from PHP 4 billion to PHP 15.9 billion.

Overall, total output is estimated to contract between 0.56 (Scenario 1) to 2.23 percent
(Scenario 3) because of the reduction in the demand for tourism characteristic products.
Looking at the 2006 national accounts, this would be equivalent to a PHP 35 billion to PHP
139.89 billion contraction (Table 7). For 2017, figures show a PHP88.15 billion to PHP 352.59
billion decline.

19
Table 7. Reduction in Final Demand on Tourism-Related Sectors (in million PHP), 2006
Scenario 2006 Final
Sectors Scenario 2 Scenario 3
1 Demand
AGRICULTURE -919.36 -1,838.73 -3,677.45 353,600.98
INDUSTRY -9,642.07 -19,544.73 -38,828.86 2,605,963.65
SERVICES (excluding sub-
-5,276.39 -10,552.78 -21,105.55 2,638,194.17
sectors below)
-
Transportation -24,170.60 -48,308.96 322,274.61
12,085.30
Travel -529.7 -1,060.55 -2,121.09 11,367.05
Accommodations -3,730.47 -7,452.57 -14,913.50 83,642.72
Restaurants -6,703.95 -13,394.03 -26,788.06 138,798.22
Beauty & Recreation -5,865.77 -11,731.54 -23,463.08 117,315.40
ECONOMY WIDE -34,972 -69,943 -139,887 6,271,157
Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

Aside from calculating the impact of changes in the final demand to total output, it might be
more relevant to researchers and policy makers to measure the economic impacts of the change
in the final demand through increased household earnings. The approach used in this paper is
through simply converting the elements of the Leontief inverse matrix into the monetary worth
of employment using household income coefficients (Tables 8 to 10).

Table 8. Derived Output and Income Multipliers, 2006 IO Table

Output Income
Sectors
Multiplier Multiplier
AGRICULTURE 1.6572 0.3754
INDUSTRY 2.5014 0.3072
SERVICES (excluding sub-sectors below) 1.5803 0.3454
Accommodations 2.1425 0.3526
Restaurants 2.6605 0.3538
Beauty and Recreation 1.7032 0.3294
Transportation 2.1515 0.2973
Travel 2.2807 0.3404
Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

To compute for the projected receipts from May to October 2018, we first derive the projected
number of tourists from May to October 2018 using the monthly data of tourist visitors in
Boracay provided by the LGU of Malay. Once we get this, we multiply the projected average
receipts per person 12 to the projected number of visitors for the covered period. The estimated
number of tourist arrivals is 1,076,543 while the amount of tourist receipts is around PHP
38,588 million. Using the projected receipts for May to October 2018, we estimated the output
and income effects to the economy by sector. Tables 9 and 10 reflect the amount of losses by
scenario, where Scenario 3 reflects the loss of the entire PHP 38,588 million.

12
This was calculated based on the average receipts per person in 2017 adjusted for 2018 inflation rate at 3.47 percent.

20
Table 9. Output Effects using May to Oct 2018 Projected Receipts in Boracay (in PHP M)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Sectors
5% 10% 20%
Accommodations 5,348.94 10,697.87 21,395.75
Restaurants 6,198.30 12,396.61 24,793.21
Beauty and Recreation 4,336.04 8,672.07 17,344.15
Transportation 4,734.36 9,468.72 18,937.45
Travel 169.42 338.83 677.67
Total 20,787.06 41,574.11 83,148.22
Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

As shown in Table 9 above, the output effects due to change in final demand ranges from
PHP20.8 billion to PHP83.1 billion. This reflects the value of loss in output due to the fall in
demand should the closure of the island push on. Accommodations and restaurants are the top
two industries that are most seriously affected, followed by transportation and beauty and
recreation. The result of Scenario 2, which assumes a 10 percent decline in tourist receipts or
half of the approximated tourist receipts from May to October, is close to the estimate of the
Boracay Foundation Incorporated which amounted to PHP56 billion 13.

Table 10. Income Effects using May to Oct 2018 Projected Receipts in Boracay (in PHP M)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Sectors
5% 10% 20%
Accommodations 1,886.28 3,772.56 7,545.11
Restaurants 2,192.84 4,385.69 8,771.38
Beauty and Recreation 1,428.09 2,856.18 5,712.35
Transportation 1,407.70 2,815.40 5,630.81
Travel 57.67 115.34 230.68
Total 6,972.58 13,945.17 27,890.33
Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

The income effects, which ranges from PHP 7 billion to PHP27.9 billion, indicates the change
(i.e. decline) in household income due to changes in each industry’s output. Similar with the
results of the output effects, household income in sectors such as restaurants and
accommodations are the ones that are mostly affected by the closure. Note that about one-third
of the workers in Boracay are in the accommodation and food and beverage industries (Figure
1).

3.3. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

The discussion in this paper has thus far established the importance of Boracay as a travel and
recreational destination in the country. The repercussions of its temporary closure, therefore,
needs to be looked into in order to understand the impact to the national economy. Using a
standard CGE model 14, we simulated the impact of a reduction in the output of 5 key
tourism/travel-related industries to the entire economy. These include Travel and tourism

13
http://news.abs-cbn.com/business/03/22/18/boracay-shutdown-36000-jobs-p56-billion-revenues-may-be-lost
14
This paper extended and implemented in GAMS the standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model by Hosoe et al.
(2010). The 2006 Input-Output (IO) table produced periodically by the now defunct National Statistics Office (now Philippine
Statistical Agency) was used to obtain the following information necessary to create the Social Accounting Matrix: (1) inter-sector
demand for intermediate inputs (2) total factor demand for each sector, (3) total Final demand of households, investment,
government and the external sector. Because the table contains the input demand and output supply of 240 industries, there is
a need for it to be summarized in order to have a reasonably-sized model.

21
sector, transportation sector, Hotels and motels, restaurants and food, and beauty and
recreation. Three scenarios were simulated using the model:

1. Simulation 1 (Scenario 1): Reduction of five percent in all the 5 key tourism-related
sectors.
2. Simulation 2 (Scenario 2): Reduction of ten percent in all the 5 key tourism-related sectors.
3. Simulation 3 (Scenario 3): Reduction of twenty percent in all the 5 key tourism-related
sectors.

The results of the simulation are presented as follows:

Table 11. Percent change in the output, by sector

Sectors Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Agriculture -0.125 -0.250 -0.526
Industry -0.024 -0.054 -0.152
Services -0.183 -0.352 -0.740
Transportation -2.506 -5.114 -10.721
Travel -10.213 -17.576 -30.997
Accommodations -7.309 -14.079 -26.447
Restaurants -4.489 -9.006 -18.137
Beauty & Recreation -5.503 -8.191 -14.872

ECONOMY WIDE -0.36 -0.69 -1.40

Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

Understandably, the tourism sectors would be the most affected, but Table 1 also shows that
other sectors like agriculture, industry and other services would also be affected albeit, slightly.
One thing that can be observed from the IO and CGE results is that the magnitude of the impact
will be borne by the tourism industry and with only limited impact to other sectors of the
economy.

To get a glimpse as to the extent of the closure’s possible implications to the final demand for
tourism-related industries, we examine the 2006 situation due to data availability limitations:

The transmission mechanism of the impact of the Boracay closure can be seen through the
increase in prices. The Boracay closure, by reducing the supply of tourist characteristic
products, increases the supply price of these products (Table 12). Higher prices reduce the
consumption of households (Table 13). They also reduce consumption of tourists as measured
by reduction in exports (Table 14) resulting in the overall reduction in output.

Table 12. Change in the supply price of the ith good

Sectors Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Agriculture 0.10 0.20 0.40
Industry 0.10 0.20 0.50
Services 0.10 0.30 0.60
Transportation 2.30 4.70 10.60
Travel 3.10 5.80 12.50
Accommodations 2.70 5.60 12.60
Restaurants 1.60 3.30 7.50

22
 Beauty & Recreation 4.80 7.40 14.50
Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

Table 13. Change in household consumption of the ith good

Sectors Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Agriculture -0.042 -0.087 -0.191
Industry -0.068 -0.138 -0.297
Services -0.072 -0.150 -0.334
Transportation -1.69 -3.472 -7.373
Travel -4.646 -8.284 -15.644
Accommodations -3.543 -7.052 -14.034
Restaurants -1.442 -2.945 -6.176
Beauty & Recreation -4.742 -7.038 -12.923
Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

Table 14. Percent Change in exports

Sectors Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Agriculture 0.085 0.158 0.282
Industry 0.164 0.309 0.563
Services -0.013 -0.029 -0.121
Transportation -4.77 -9.673 -19.902
Travel -13.111 -22.477 -39.324
Accommodations -9.892 -19.004 -35.369
Restaurants -5.968 -11.952 -23.926
Beauty & Recreation -10.402 -15.164 -26.73
Source: Authors’ calculations using 2006 IO Table

Finally, the CGE model also allows us to calculate the change in welfare of households as
measured by the equivalence variation. The results show that about 0.045 to 0.02 percent of
GDP would be necessary to bring back the households to the level of utility that they are
enjoying before the closure of Boracay.

4. Ways Forward

Government clearly has its hands full with rehabilitation efforts particularly in implementing
sewage clean-up and finding waste-to-energy (WTE) solutions for dealing with garbage. It
will also need to work to increase mangrove cover, restore coral reefs, protect and rehabilitate
seagrass beds, carry out effective zoning, relocate informal settlers, as well as regulate fisheries
and water sports. Further, government will need to identify the island’s carrying capacity and
determine if new firms, e.g. a proposed casino, will potentially overload carrying capacity.

While the economic value of Boracay can mostly be seen in the revenue generated from
tourism, and thus the economic value of closure is equated to the potential loss of revenues
from various streams as suggested in the previous section, which may not be significant at the
national level, the closure will still have its direct and indirect effects to people living in
Boracay, and in the entire municipality of Malay. As in any calamity, the ecological crisis in
the island will seriously affect living conditions of the poor as well as non-poor with low
incomes. Even if the closure of the island will only last for six months, such a period may
possibly put these vulnerable groups into irreparable harm.

23
Results of the PSA’s Labor Force Survey (for the April and October rounds of 2017) provides
various statistics on regular daily wages received across occupation groups in the entire Aklan
province (see Table 9). While laborers and unskilled workers, who dominate the occupation
groups in Boracay Island, receive a daily wage of about 250 pesos, the actual wages can go
from 50 pesos to 625 pesos. A quarter of them even receive only around 150 pesos. Government
will need to provide some assistance especially to low income workers in the island and in
mainland Malay who will be affected by the island’s closure.

Table 15. Selected Statistics on Daily Wages in Aklan by major occupation April-September 2017
Statistics
Major Occupation Groups Average Min Max First Median Third
Quartile Quartile
Special Occupations 204 204 205 204 204 205
Gov't and Special Interest Org. Officials, 1,124 300 1,988 346 1,364 1,955
Corp.
Executives, Managers or Proprietors,
Supervisors
Professionals 767 115 2,500 364 863 990
Technicians and Associate Professionals 352 100 818 250 346 385
Clerks 354 80 1,045 250 307 431
Service Workers and Shop and Market 281 39 818 200 295 310
Sales Workers
Farmers, Forestry Workers and Fishermen . . . . . .
Trades and Related Workers 313 30 545 270 346 350
Plant and Machine Operators and 308 250 400 250 300 350
Assemblers
Laborers and Unskilled Workers 227 50 625 150 250 298
Total 315 30 2,500 200 273 350
Source: April and October rounds of 2017 Labor Force Survey, Philippine Statistics Authority

The Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) is reportedly planning to implement

livelihood programs and provide assistance through its Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating
Disadvantaged/Displaced (Tupad) Workers program. With its P2.3-billion budget for 2018, the
Tupad program aims to provide assistance to laid-off or retrenched workers, and to self-
employed workers whose livelihoods have been damaged by disasters and other crises. The
DOLE, however, suggests that this program can only afford to provide emergency employment
to some 5 thousand workers, falling short of the number of affected workers, and other
unregistered workers in Boracay that may be as many 36 thousand.

In addition, the DSWD is currently preparing an assistance plan for Boracay through its regular
programs and services such as the Sustainable Livelihood Program, Cash-for-Work, and
Assistance to Individuals in Crisis.

It may be important, however, that as regards assistance for employees from registered
establishments, there should be some distinction between environmentally compliant
businesses from those that were non-compliant. Extra temporary assistance in the form of tax
reliefs and other financial incentives should also be given by the Department of Trade and
Industry (DTI) to environmentally compliant micro, small and medium enterprises in the entire
Malay, especially in Boracay.

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Meanwhile, the government could also look into the existing mechanisms for providing cash
assistance to poor displaced workers. One such mechanism is the distribution of the cash
transfer of the 4Ps program although this would only be limited to 4Ps beneficiaries.

In the matter of cash transfer, options to include the provision of a monthly cash assistance or
one-time lump-sum transfer. The latter may be more preferable since this can allow the use of
the cash transfer for entrepreneurial activities. The government could provide increased
assistance to the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program beneficiaries in Boracay (as well as in
mainland Malay) who would be affected once the Boracay closure begins. For instance,
Pantawid household beneficiaries in Malay could be provided an unconditional grant of 3,000
pesos in a single tranche for the six-month period, while those in Boracay could be given 6,000
pesos in two tranches (half in a first tranche without condition, and the other half in a second
tranche conditioned on attending several family development sessions on ecological solid
waste management. However, this assumes that Pantawid beneficiaries who are residents in
Boracay can be easy to locate, and will not be displaced by a demolition of dwellings built
within the 30-meter shoreline easement. This assistance will also be limited to current
Pantawid beneficiaries, but other vulnerable families especially the near poor, may also need
support.

The declaration of a state of calamity in Boracay could accelerate rehabilitation efforts in the
island, as well as allow government access to calamity funds to help address the needs of those
to be displaced by the closure. Calamity funds for the year, amounting to P19.6 billion,
however, may also not be enough to cushion the impact of the island closure, especially as we
anticipate other hazards to affect the country in the months to come.

Several government agencies have pledged assistance to displaced workers. It is likely that the
number of jobs that can be provided will be less than the number of displaced workers. Thus,
the issue of targeting will need to be addressed. Priority should be given to the poor and low-
wage workers. Self-targeting will be achieved by the design of the employment program. For
instance, offering wages near or below the minimum wage will attract poor workers.

This study points to the need for a registry of the residents in any barangay. This makes it easier
to identify would-be-affected residents resulting from shocks. A Community-Based
Monitoring System (CBMS) would be useful tool in generating such database. Malay is
scheduled to implement CBMS this year but has yet to start data collection.

Government will need to spell out a concrete detailed plan with specific timetables not only for
the renovation of the island but also for supporting affecting people, and to have a clear
communication plan to avert the possibilities that people who planned to visit the island may
decide not to ever visit the tourist destination.

25
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