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    Or2 Tugasgt1 21s18052 PDF Free

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    Deep Mandlik
    The document presents a decision problem facing Farmer McCoy for the upcoming planting season. He can plant corn, wheat, soybeans, or use the land for grazing. The expected payoff of each action depends on the rainfall, which could be heavy, moderate, light, or drought. The payoff matrix shows the expected thousands of dollars of profit/loss under each rainfall scenario for each action. The summary evaluates each action based on 4 decision making criteria: expected payoff, maximax, maximin, and minimax. It finds that soybeans (A3) is the best choice under expected payoff and maximax criteria. Grazing (A4) performs best under maximin and minimax.

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    Or2 Tugasgt1 21s18052 PDF Free

    Uploaded by

    Deep Mandlik
    43 views4 pages
    The document presents a decision problem facing Farmer McCoy for the upcoming planting season. He can plant corn, wheat, soybeans, or use the land for grazing. The expected payoff of each action depends on the rainfall, which could be heavy, moderate, light, or drought. The payoff matrix shows the expected thousands of dollars of profit/loss under each rainfall scenario for each action. The summary evaluates each action based on 4 decision making criteria: expected payoff, maximax, maximin, and minimax. It finds that soybeans (A3) is the best choice under expected payoff and maximax criteria. Grazing (A4) performs best under maximin and minimax.

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    Pdfcoffee.com Or2 Tugasgt1 21s18052 PDF Free

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    The document presents a decision problem facing Farmer McCoy for the upcoming planting season. He can plant corn, wheat, soybeans, or use the land for grazing. The expected payoff of each action depends on the rainfall, which could be heavy, moderate, light, or drought. The payoff matrix shows the expected thousands of dollars of profit/loss under each rainfall scenario for each action. The summary evaluates each action based on 4 decision making criteria: expected payoff, maximax, maximin, and minimax. It finds that soybeans (A3) is the best choice under expected payoff and maximax criteria. Grazing (A4) performs best under maximin and minimax.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    43 views4 pages

    Or2 Tugasgt1 21s18052 PDF Free

    Uploaded by

    Deep Mandlik
    The document presents a decision problem facing Farmer McCoy for the upcoming planting season. He can plant corn, wheat, soybeans, or use the land for grazing. The expected payoff of each action depends on the rainfall, which could be heavy, moderate, light, or drought. The payoff matrix shows the expected thousands of dollars of profit/loss under each rainfall scenario for each action. The summary evaluates each action based on 4 decision making criteria: expected payoff, maximax, maximin, and minimax. It finds that soybeans (A3) is the best choice under expected payoff and maximax criteria. Grazing (A4) performs best under maximin and minimax.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    OR2_TugasGT1_21S18052

    For the
    upcoming
    planting
    season, Farmer
    McCoy can
    plant corn
    (a1), wheat
    (a2), or
    soybeans (a3)
    or use the land
    for grazing
    (a4). The
    payoffs
    associated
    with the
    different
    actions are
    influenced by
    the amount of
    rain: heavy
    rainfall (s1),
    moderate
    rainfall (s2),
    light rainfall
    (s3), or
    drought (s4).
    The payoff
    matrix (in
    thousands of
    dollars) is
    estimated asX S1 S2 S3 S4
    A1 -20 60 30 -5
    A2 40 50 35 0
    A3 -50 100 45 -10
    A4 12 15 15 10

    Develop a course of action for Farmer McCoy based on each of the four decisions under uncertainty
    criteria.
    1
    Expected Payoff: × [ P 1+ P 2+ …+ Pn ]
    n
    Laplace
    1
    Given P { S 1 }= , j 1 to 4, the expected values for the different actions are computed as
    4
    1
    E { A 1 }= × [ (−20 )+ 60+30+ (−5 ) ] =$ 16.250
    4
    1
    E { A 2 }= × [ 40+50+35+0 ] =$ 31.250
    4
    1
    E { A 3 }= × [ (−50 ) +100+45+ (−10 ) ]=$ 21.250
    4
    1
    E { A 4 }= × [ 12+15+15+10 ] =$ 1 3.00 0
    4
    Criterion of Optimism

    MAXIMAXX MAXIMA
    S1 S2 S3 S4 X
    A1 -20 60 30 -5 60
    A2 40 50 35 0 50
    A3 -50 100 45 -10 100
    A4 12 15 15 10 15

    The MAXIMAX – Pay off is 100 in A3 (soybeans)


    MINIM
    INX MINIMI
    S1 S2 S3 S4 N
    A1 -20 60 30 -5 -20
    A2 40 50 35 0 0
    A3 -50 100 45 -10 -50
    A4 12 15 15 10 10

    The MINIMIN – Cost Matrix is -50 (A3 = Soybeans)

    Criterion of Pessimism
    MAXIMI
    MAXIMINX
    S1 S2 S3 S4 N
    A1 -20 60 30 -5 -20
    A2 40 50 35 0 0
    A3 -50 100 45 -10 -50
    A4 12 15 15 10 10

    The MAXIMIN is 10 in A4 (A4 = for grazing)

    MINIMAX
    S1 S2 S3 S4 MINIMAX
    A1 -20 60 30 -5 60
    A2 40 50 35 0 50
    A3 -50 100 45 -10 100
    A4 12 15 15 10 15
    The MINIMAX is 10 in A4 (A4 = for grazing)

    Savage
    MAXIMIN – the minimization problem
    The regret matrix is determined by subtracting 40, 100, 45, 10
    RT = Max Payoff – payoff
    S1 S2 S3 S4 MAXIMIN
    A1 60 40 15 15 15
    A2 0 50 10 10 0
    A3 90 0 0 20 0
    A4 28 85 30 0 0
    The MAXIMIN is 10 in A1 (A1 = for corn)

    MINIMAX – the maximization problem


    The regret matrix is determined by subtracting -50, 15, 15, -10
    RT = Cost – Mini cost
    S1 S2 S3 S4 MINIMAX
    A1 30 45 15 5 45
    A2 90 35 20 10 90
    A3 0 85 30 0 85
    A4 62 0 0 20 62
    The MINIMAX is 10 in A1 (A1 = for corn)

    Hurwicz Criterion / Criterion of Realism


    Weighted Arg. Criterion
    Assume that α = 0,5
    Minimization the problem – payoff
    S1 S2 S3 S4 MIN MAX W0
    A1 -20 60 30 -5 -20 60 20
    A2 40 50 35 0 0 50 25
    A3 -50 100 45 -10 -50 100 25
    A4 12 15 15 10 10 15 12,5
    The Minimization is by A4 for the grazing = 12,5
    w 0=α × Min+ ( 1−α ) × Max
    S 1=( 0,5 ×(−20) ) + ( 1−0,5 ) × 60=20
    S 2=( 0,5 × 0 ) + ( 1−0,5 ) ×50=25
    S 3=( 0,5×(−50) ) + ( 1−0,5 ) × 100=25
    S 4=( 0,5 ×10 )+ ( 1−0,5 ) ×15=12,5

    Maximization the problem – cost matrix


    S1 S2 S3 S4 MAX MIN W0
    A1 -20 60 30 -5 60 -20 20
    A2 40 50 35 0 50 0 25
    A3 -50 100 45 -10 100 -50 25
    A4 12 15 15 10 15 10 12,5
    The Maximization is by A4 for the grazing = 25 by A2 = wheat or by A3 with the second optimum
    after wheat which is A3 by Soybeans.
    w 0=α × M ax+ ( 1−α ) × M ∈¿
    S 1=( 0,5 ×60 )+ ( 1−0,5 ) ×(−20)=20
    S 2=( 0,5 ×5 0 )+ (1−0,5 ) ×0=25
    S 3=( 0,5× 100 ) + ( 1−0,5 ) ×(−50)=25
    S 4=( 0,5 ×1 5 ) + ( 1−0,5 ) × 10=12,5

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