HYDROSYSTEMS

ENGINEERING
AND MANAGEMENT

Larry W. Mays
Professar and Chair
Department of Ci vi/ Engineering
Arizona Stare University

Yeou-Koung Tung
Associare Professar, Departmenr of Staristics
Hydrologist, Wyoming Water Research Cenrer
University of Wyoming

McGraw-Hill, Inc.
New Yoik St. Louis San Francisco Auckland Bogo!A
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 CONTENTS

Preface xvii

Part l Principles
l Introduction 3
l.l Background 3
1.2 Descriptions of Hydrosystems 4
1.3 The Systems Concept 8
1.4 Issues in Hydrosystems Engineering 11
1.4.1 Design versus Analysis Il
1.4.2 Conventional versus Optimization Procedures Il
1.4.3 Optimization 12
1.4.4 Single-Objective versus Multiple-Objective Optimization 15
1.4.5 Uncertainties in Hydrosystem Design and Analysis 16
1.4.6 Applications of Optimization in Hydrosystems 18
1.4.7 Building a Mode! 18
References 20
Books on Selected Topics 20
Problems 22

2 Economics for Hydrosystems 23

2.1 Engineering Economie Analysis 23
2.2 Benefit-Cost Analysis 26
2.3 Theory of Consumer Behavior 29
2.3.1 Utility 29
2.3.2 Maximization of Utility 31
2.3.3 Demand Functions 33
2.4 Theory of the Firm 35
2.4.1 Basic Concepts 36
2.4.2 Optimal Input Combinations 40
2.4.3 Cost in the Short Run 44

ix
x CO:-<TE:'> J'~

2.4.4 Cost in the Long Run 46

2.4.5 Elasticities of Output and Substitution 417
2.5 Demand, Supply. and Market Equilibrium 47
Refercnccs 49
Problems 50

3 Linear Programming with Applications

to Hydrosystems 54
3.1 Linear Programming 54
3.1.1 Assumptions in Linear Program ming Models 57
3.l.2 Fom1s of Linear Programming 58
3 .2 Solution A lgorithms for Linear Programming 60
3.2.1 Graphical Method 60
3.2.2 Feasible Extreme (or Corner) Points 62
3.2.3 Algorithm for Solving Linear Programming Problems 63
3.2.4 Basic Algorithm of Solving Linear Programming Problems 67
3.3 Simplex Method 67
3.3.1 Basic Algebraic Concepts and Setup 67
3.3.2 Algebra of Simplex Method 68
3.3.3 Summary of the Sin1plex Method 74
3.4 Artificial Variable Methods 75
3.4.1 Big-M Method 76
3.4.2 Two-Phase Method 77
3.5 lntetpreting the Sin1plex Tableau 78
3.5.1 Optimal Solution 80
3.5.2 Status of Resources 80
3.5.3 Per-Unit Worth of Resources (Shadow Prices) 80
3.6 Cases of the Simplex Method Application 81
3.6. 1 Degeneracy 81
3.6.2 Unbounded Solution 82
3.6.3 Alternative Optimal Solutions 83
3.6.4 Nonexisting Feasible Solutions 83
3.7 Duality of the Simplex Method 84
3.7.1 Definition of Dual Problem 84
3.7.2 Primal-Dual Relationship 85
3.8 Matrix Version of Simplex Tableau 87
3.9 New Methods for Solving Linear Programming Problems 90
References 90
Problems 91
Appendix 3A 95

4 Dynamic and Nonlinear Programming

with Applications to Hydrosystems 106
4.1 Dynamic Programming 107
4.1.1 Elements of Dynamic Programming Model 108
4.1.2 Operational Characteristics of Dynamic Programming 113
4.2 Discrete Differential Dynamic Programming 120
4.3 Matrix Algebra for Nonlinear Progran1ming 124
4.4 Unconstrained Nonlinear Optimization 130
4.4.1 Basic Concepts 130
4.4.2 One-Dimensional Search 132
 CONTENTS XÌ

4.4.3 Multivariable Methods 135

4.5 Constrained Optimization: Optimality Conditions 138
4.5.1 Lagrange Multiplier 138
4.5.2 Kuhn-Tucker Conditions 140
4.6 Constrained Nonlinear Optimization : Generalized Reduced Gradient
(GRG) Method 141
4.6.1 Basic Concepts 141
4.6.2 Generai Algorithms and Basis Changes 142
4.6.3 The Reduced Gradient 144
4.6.4 Optimality Conditions for GRG Method 146
4.7 Constrained Nonlinear Optimization: Penalty Function Methods 152
4.8 Constrained Nonlinear Optimization : Projected Lagrangian Method 155
4.9 Nonlinear Prograrnming Codes 156
References 157
Problems 159

5 Uncertainty and Reliability Analysis of Hydrosystems 164

5.1 Review of Probability Theory 164
5.1.1 Terminology 164
5.1.2 Rules of Probability Computations 165
5.1.3 Random Variables and Their Distributions 167
5.1.4 Statistica! Properties of Random Variables 169
5.2 Commonly Used Probability Distributions 175
5.2.1 Binomia! Distribution 175
5.2.2 Poisson Distribution 176
5.2.3 Norma! Distribution 177
5.2.4 Lognormal Distribution 178
5.3 Analysis of Uncertainties 181
5.4 Reliability Computations Using Load-Resistance Analysis 184
5.4.1 Direct Integration Method 185
5.4.2 Methods Using Safety Margin and Safety Factor 185
5.4.3 Fìrst-Order Second-Moment Methods 188
5.4.4 Dynamìc (Tìme-Dependent) Reliability Model 190
5.5 Reliability Using Ttme-to-Failure Analysis 192
5.5.1 Failure Densìty Function 193
5.5.2 Failure Rate and Hazard Functìon 193
5.5.3 Mean-Tìme-to-Failure 194
5.5.4 Repair Density Function, Repair Rate, and Mean-Time-
to-Repaìr 195
5.5.5 Mean-Time-between-Failure and Mean-Time-between-Repair 196
5.5.6 Avai1ability and Unavailability 196
5.6 Reliability Analysis of Simple Systems 199
5.7 Optìmization of Reliabilìty 201
5.7.1 Reliability Design with Redundancy 201
5.7.2 Reliability Apportionment 202
5.8 Chance-Constrained Models 202
5.8.1 Right-Hand Side Coefficients Random 203
5.8.2 Technological Coefficients Random 205
5.8.3 Right-Hand Side and Technological Coefficients Random 207
References 208
Problerns 209
xi i CONTE.'ITS

P art 2 Water Supply Engineering and Management

6 Water Demand Forecasting 221

6. 1 Water Use and Forecasting 221
6.2 Forecasting Municipal and Ind ustriai Water Use 224
6.2.1 Classification of Methods 224
6.2.2 Generai Form of Models 227
6.2.3 Data Availability 228
6.3 Regression Models for Water Use Forecasting 228
6.3. 1 Regression Concepts for Water Use Forecasting 228
6.3.2 Linear Regression 233
6.3.3 Accuracy of Regression Models 237
6.3.4 Generai Comments about Regression Analysis 239
6.4 Cascade Models for Water Use Forecasting 241
6.4.1 Detrending 243
6.4.2 Deseasonalization 246
6.4.3 Autoregressive Filtering 250
6.4.4 Climatic Regression 253
6.4.5 Application for Monthly Water Use Forecast 256
6.5 Econometrie Models for Water Demand Forecasting 257
6.5.1 Simultaneous Equations 259
6.5.2 Reduced Form Equations 260
6.5.3 Estimation of Structural Parameters 261
6.6 IWR-Main Water Use Forecasting System 262
References 266
Problems 267

7 Surface Water Systems 270

7.1 Surface Water Reservoir Systems 270
7.2 Storage-Firm Yield Analysis for Water Supp1y 271
7.2.1 Finn-Yie1d Analysis Procedures 272
7.2.2 Optimization Procedures for Firm Yield Analysis 277
7.3 Storage-Firm Energy Analysis 282
7.3.1 Concepts of Water Supply for Power Generation 282
7.3.2 Determination of Firm Energy 283
7.4 Reservoir Simu1ation 285
7.4.1 Operation Rules 285
7.4.2 Conservation Sirnulation 289
7.4.3 HEC-5 Sirnulation Mode! 290
7.5 Optimal Sizing and Operation of a Single Mu1tip1e-Purpose Reservoir 291
7.6 Optimal Sizing and Operation of Multip1e-Purpose Reservoir Systems 300
7.7 Reservoir Sizing and Operation under Hydro1ogic Uncertainty:
LP Models 302
7.7.1 Chance-Constrained Models Using Linear Decision Rules 305
7.7.2 Yield Mode1s 312
7.8 Reservoir Operation under Hydro1ogic Uncertainty: DP Models 317
References 320
Problems 321
 CONTENTS xiii

8 Groundwater Systems 323

8. 1 Basic Principles of Groundwater Systems 323
8.1.1 Groundwater Hydrology 324
8.1.2 Groundwater Movement 326
8.1.3 Types of Groundwater Quantity Management Models 326
8.2 Simulation of Groundwater Systems 330
8.2.1 Development of Governing Equations 330
8.2.2 Finite Difference Equations 332
8.3 Hydraulic Management Models: Embedding Approach 334
8.3. 1 Steady-State One-Dimensional Problems for Confined Aquifers 334
8.3.2 Steady-State Two-Dimensional Model for Confined Aquifers 338
8.3.3 Transient One-Dimensional Problem for Confined Aquifers 340
8.3.4 Steady-State Two Dimensiona! Prob1em for Unconfined Aquifers 342
8.4 Policy Evaluation and Allocation Models: Response Matrix Approach 343
8.5 Groundwater Management Model: Optimal Control Approach 347
References 348
Problems 350

9 Water Distribution Systems 354

9. 1 Description and Purpose of Water Distribution Systems 354
9.2 Water Distribution System Components 356
9.3 Pumps and Pumping Hydraulics 359
9.4 Network Simulation 361
9 .4.1 Conservation Laws 361
9.4.2 Network Equations 364
9.4.3 Network Simulation Algorithms 365
9.5 Optimization Models for Design of Branched Systems 368
9.6 Optimization Models for Design of Looped Systems 372
9.6.1 Generai Problems 372
9.6.2 A Linear Prograrnming Mode! 373
9.7 Water Distribution System Design Mode! 374
9.8 Water Distribution System Reliabil.ity 378
9.8. 1 Component Reliability 379
9.8.2 System Reliability 380
References 383
Problems 384

Part 3 Water Excess Engineering and Management

lO Hydrology and Hydraulics for Water Excess
Management 389
10.1 Floodp1ain Hydrologic and Hydraulic Analysis 390
10.2 Storm Hydrograph Detemùnation: Rainfali-Runoff Analysis 392
10.2.1 Hydrologic Losses 392
10.2.2 Unit Hydrograph Approach 395
10.2.3 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering
Center, HEC-1 396
10.2.4 Continuous Simulation Models 399
10.3 Hydrologic Analysis: Reservoirs and Rivers 399
10.3.1 Hydrologic Reservoir Routing 399
XiV CONTENTS

10.3.2 Hydrologic River Routing 400

10.4 Hydrologic Frequency Analysis for Floodplain Detennination 402
l 0.4.1 Flood Flow Frequency Analysis 402
10.4.2 U.S. Water Resources Council Guidelines 403
l 0.5 Floodplain Elevations: Water Surface Profile Detennination 408
10.6 Hydraulics of Flood Forecasting: Distributed Routing 411
10.7 U.S. National Weather Service Models for River Routing 413
References 415
Problems 416

11 Urban Stormwater Management Systems 420

11.1 Urban Stonnwater Management System 420
11.2 Storm Sewer Design 421
11.2.1 Design Philosophy 421
11.2.2 Rational Method 423
11.3 Hydrograph Design Method 426
11.4 Minimum Cost Design of Stonn Sewer Systems 428
11.5 Reliability Ana1ysis of Storm Sewers 437
11.5.1 Reliability Computation 437
11.5.2 Risk-Safety Factor Re1ationship 442
11.6 Stonnwater Detention 443
11.6.1 Urbanization Effects and Stormwater Detention 443
11.6.2 Selection of Detention Pond SÌZC}-Modified Rational Method 445
11.6.3 Hydrograph Design Method 449
11.7 Minimum Cost Design of Regional Stonnwater Detention Systems 450
References 453
Problems 454

12 Floodplain Management Systems 457

12.1 Flood-Control Altematives 458
12.1.1 Structural A1tematives 458
12.1.2 Nonstructural Measures 461
12.2 Flood Damage Estimation 462
12.2.1 Damage Re1ationships 462
12.2.2 Expected Damages 463
12.3 HEC Flood Damage Analysis Package 466
12.4 Optimization Mode! for Planning Flood Contro! 470
12.5 Optimal Selection of Flood-Control Altematives 473
12.6 Risk-Based Design 475
12.7 Risk-Based Design of Highway Drainage Structures 476
12.7.1 Design of Roadway Crossing Structures 476
12.7.2 Expected Damages and Objective Function 480
References 483
Prob1ems 484
 CONTE~TS XV

13 Operation of Surface Water Systems for Fl ood

Control 493
13. 1 Rea!-Ti me Flood Forecasting 494
13. 1. 1 Concepts 494
13.1.2 Real-Time Data Collection Systems for River-Lake Systcms 496
13.1 .3 Flood Early Warning Syste m for Urban Areas 497
13.1.4 Flood-Forecasti ng Models 500
13.2 Ri ver-Reservoir Opcration for Flood Contro! 50 l
13.2.1 Reservoir Opcration Modc!s 50!
13.2.2 Lower Colorado River Flood Forecasting System 504
13.3 Optimization Models for Dcveloping Operation Policies 507
13.4 Optimization Models for Real-Time Operation of Reservoirs 509
13.4.1 Optimization Mode! Using Hydrologic Routing 509
13.4.2 Optimization Mode! Using Hydraulic Routing 5 12
References 514
Problems 515

Author Index 51 9

Inde x 523