Probability

The term probability refers to the study of uncertainty and randomness of an experiment. The
probability of an event A is defined as a quantitative or numerical measure of the likelihood
of the occurrence of an outcome of the event of the random or deterministic experiments.
Probability is conventionally expressed on a scale from 0 to 1, a rare event has a probability
close to 0 and a very common event has a probability close to 1.
For ex: In tossing a coin, the probability of getting a head or tail is P(A)=1/2.
In tossing a die, the probability of getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 is P(A)=1/6,etc.

Experiment
A physical activity or process that leads to one and only one of many possible outcomes
which is subject to certainty or uncertainty is called an experiment. The list of possible
outcomes of an experiment must be exhaustive and mutually exclusive.
For ex: Tossing of a coin, rolling of a die, checking the boiling point of a liquid, taking
examination for a student, conducting interviews for some jobs, hitting a ball of a batsman,
chemical reaction of elements, etc.

Types of experiment
There are two types of experiments: 1.Deterministic experiment 2.Random experiment

Deterministic experiment
An experiment which can be repeated under essentially homogeneous and similar conditions
and whose outcomes or results can be predicted with certainty. It produces same result or
outcome of an experiment. It is also known as predictable or non-random experiment.
For ex:1.If the potential difference E between the ends of a conductor and the resistance R
are known, the current I flowing in the conductor is uniquely determine by Ohms law I=E/R,
where I=flow of current.
2.For a perfect gas, Vα1/P i.e., PV=constant, where V=volume of gas, P=pressure of gas
3.The velocity ‘v’ of a particle after time ‘t’ is given by v=u+at, where u is the initial
velocity, a is the acceleration..This equation uniquely determines ‘v’ if the right hand
quantities are known.

Random experiment
An experiment which can be repeated under essentially homogeneous and similar conditions
and the set of all possible outcomes of the experiment is known in advance but the outcome
of a particular performance or trial of the experiment cannot predicted before the completion
of the experiment. It did not produce the same outcome but the outcome produce one of the
several outcomes. It is also known as unpredictable or probability experiment.
For ex: The tossing of a coin, the roll of a die, the selection of a numbered ball (1-50) in an
urn, Percentage of calls dropped due to errors over a particular time period, the time
difference between two messages arriving at a message centre.

Trial
A single performance of an experiment is called a trial.
For ex: If a batsman plays a single ball, if a bowler bowls, if a student solves a single
question, rolling of a die, tossing of a coin, playing of a pack of cards, etc.

Outcome
The result of an experiment is called an outcome. Each possible distinct result of an
experiment is referred as outcome.
For ex: In tossing a coin, head and tail are outcomes, In throwing a die, 1,2,3,4,5,6 points on
the face of die are outcomes, boiling of water on l 00°C, etc.

Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of any given random experiment is called a sample space. It
is usually denoted by S or Ω (omega) and the total number of elements in the sample space is
known as size of the sample space and is denoted by n(S). In fact, the sample space is the
universal set for given experiment. Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a
member of the sample space or simply a sample point in the sample space and is denoted by
small letter‘s’.
For ex: In rolling a die, the sample space S = { l, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and n(S)=6, In tossing an
unbiased coin, the sample space S={ H, T}and n(S)=2, If a coin and a die are thrown
simultaneously then the sample space is S = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5,
T6} and n(S) = 12.etc.

Types of sample space

There are four types of sample space
1.Discrete and finite sample pace 2.Discrete and infinite sample space
3.Continuous and finite sample space 4. Continuous and finite sample space

Discrete and finite sample pace

A sample space is said to be discrete and finite if the sets in the sample space of any random
experiment have finite number of elements.
For ex: Tossing a coin, the set in sample space is S={H,T}, throwing a dice, the set in
sample space is S={1,2,3,4,5,6}, etc.

Discrete and infinite sample space

A sample space is said to be discrete and infinite if the sets in the sample space of any
random experiment have infinite number of elements.
For ex:1. Consider an experiment, choose randomly a positive integer set in sample space is
S={1,2,3,..........}, here S is countable infinite set.
2.Consider an experiment, choose randomly even numbers set from natural numbers is
S={2,4,6,..........},etc

Continuous and finite sample space

A sample space is said to be continuous and finite if the sets in the sample space of any
random experiment have infinite number of elements with countable values within a given
range.
For ex: 1.Consider an experiment, choose randomly even numbers set from 10 to 20 is
S={2,4,6,..........20},etc.
2.Consider an experiment, choose randomly even prime numbers set from 10 to 20 is
S={2},etc.

Continuous and infinite sample space

A sample space is said to be continuous and infinite if the sets in the sample space of any
random experiment have uncountable infinite number of elements with continuous values
within a given range.
For ex: 1.Consider an experiment, choose randomly a rational numbers between 1to 200 is
S={1,1.1,1.2,.................200}, here S is uncountable infinite set.
2.Consider an experiment, measuring room temperature between t1 and t2 is S={t1<s<t2},
etc.

Event
A set of one or more possible outcomes of an experiment is called an event. Thus, it is sub
set of sample space. It is denoted by E
For ex: In tossing a coin, an event that has two possible outcomes heads or tails, In throwing
a fire die, an event that has six possible outcomes 1,2,3,4,5,6., Drawing two cards from a
pack of well shuffled cards and getting a king and a queen are events, etc.

Types of events
Generally, there are two types of events:
1. Simple or elementary event 2.Compound or composite event

Simple event
A simple event is an event which cannot be broken or divided into further smaller events i.e.,
an event which has only one outcome or result of a random experiment.
For ex: In tossing a coin, getting a head and tail are simple events.
In throwing a die, getting the points 1,2,3,4,5,6 are simple events, etc.

Compound event
A compound event is an event which can be broken or divided into further smaller events.
Thus, it is a combination of several events.
For ex: In throwing a die, getting an odd numbers is compound event i.e., E={1,3,5}
In throwing a die, getting an even numbers is compound event i.e., E={2,4,6}
In tossing three coins, getting a head is a compound event i.e., E={HTT,THT,TTH}, etc.

Exhaustive Events
The total number of possible outcomes in any trial or random experiment is known as
exhaustive events. In other words, the total number of elements in the sample space is known
as number of exhaustive cases.
For ex: In tossing of a coin, there are two exhaustive cases, viz., head and tai1.
In throwing of a die, there are six exhaustive cases since anyone of the
6 faces 1,2, ... ,6. In drawing two cards from a pack of cards, the exhaustive number of cases
is 52C2 since 2 cards can be drawn out of 52 cards in52C2 ways.
Mutually Exclusive events
Events are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of any one of them prevents
(excludes) the happening of all other events in a single experiment i.e., if they have no
common outcomes or if they cannot occur together.
If E1 and E2 are two mutually exclusive events then E1 ∩ E2 = ∅.
For ex: In a coin tossing experiment head and tail are mutually exclusive as there cannot be
simultaneous occurrence of head and tail.
In throwing a die experiment, getting points on the face of the die 1,2,3,4,5,6 are mutually
exclusive events.

Equally Likely events

Events are said to be equally likely if we do not have any reason to expect one in preference
to others in any single trial or random experiment. If there is some reason to expect one in
preference to others then the events will not be equally likely. i.e., each outcome of the
random experiment has an equal chance of occurring.
For ex: The chance of getting a head and tail are equally likely in an experiment of tossing
an unbiased coin.
The chances of all the six faces in an experiment of throwing an unbiased die are equally
likely.

Favourable events
The events whose outcomes are favour to the happening of an event in a random experiment
are called favourable events.
For ex: For the event of drawing a card of spade from a pack of 52 cards, the number of
favourable cases is 13.
For the event of getting an even number in throwing a die, the number of favourable cases is
3 and the event in this case is {2, 4, 6}.
4.If two dice are thrown, the number of favourable events of getting a sum 5 is 4, i.e., (1, 4),
(2, 3), (3, 2) and (4, 1).

Certain / Sure Events

An event which is sure to occur as an outcome at every performance of an experiment is
called a certain event connected with the experiment. E is a certain event iff P(E)=1.
Certain events are also known as sure event.
For ex: Head or Tail is a certain event connected with tossing a coin.
Face-1 or face-2, face-3, ……, face-6 is a certain event connected with throwing a die, etc.

Impossible Event
An event which cannot occur as an outcome at any performance of the experiment is called
an impossible event. E is a impossible event iff P(E)=0.
For ex: A null set is an event with no elements, is an impossible event.
Rolling a number 7 on a six sided die is an impossible event,
In throwing a die, the event of getting a natural number greater than 6 is an impossible event.
Sum13 in case of throwing a pair of dice is an impossible event, etc.
Complementary Event
An event which consists in the negation of another event is called complementary event of
the event.
For ex: In case of throwing a die, ‘even face’ and ‘odd face’ are complementary to each
other, “Multiple of 3” ant “Not multiple of 3” are complementary events of each other.

Independent events
Two or more events are said to be independent events if the happening or non-happening of
one event is does not effected on the happening or non-happening of other events of a
random experiment.
For ex: consider an experiment of exam, A, B, C and D are written exam, A passing in exam
does not effect on the passing of B, C and D then the event of passing is independent of other
events.

Types of events based on sample space

As with sample space, events may be either discrete or continuous.
1.The sample space is discrete and finite then the events are also discrete and finite events.
2.The sample space is discrete and infinite then the events are discrete and finite or discrete
and infinite events.
3.The sample space is continuous space then the events are continuous or discrete and finite
or discrete and infinite events.
For ex:1.When a coin is tossed, the event ‘head’ is a discrete and finite event i.e., E1={H},
hence E1 is discrete and finite event.
2.Let E2 be the event, choose randomly a positive odd numbers i.e., E2={1,3,5,.....}, hence
E2 is discrete and infinite events.
3.consider sample space of a random experiment is S={0.5≤s≤8.5} and let E1 be the event,
choose randomly a number 7 in a sample space i.e., E1={ø, 7} , hence E1 is discrete and
finite event.
Let E2 be the event, choose randomly a rational numbers between 1.5 and 6.5 in the sample
space i.e., E2={1.5≤s≤6.5}, hence E2 is uncountable infinite and continuous event, thus E2 is
a continuous.
Let E3 be the event where E3 is {0.5001,0.5002,......},hence E3 is countable infinite event.
Thus, event E3 is discrete and infinite event.

Classical or mathematical probability

Let there be ‘n’ exhaustive events in a random experiment which are mutually exclusive as
well as equally likely. Let ‘m’ out of them be favourable for the happening of an event A
(say), then the probability of happening event A is denoted by P (A) and is defined as