Meta Analysis
Meta Analysis
Meta-Analysis
S.S.S. SHASUN JAIN
COLLEGE FOR WOMEN
IQAC – RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
WORKSHOP
RESOURCE PERSON:
Prof. (Dr.) Paresh Shah
FCMA., Ph.D., D.Ed., D.D.M., D.Ed. Psy.
Alumnus of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad,
(India); Institute of Cost Accountants of India; University of
London, UK; University of Illinois, US; Darden School of
Business, University of Virginia, US; IESE Business School,
University of Navarra, Spain; University of New South
Wales, Sydney, Australia; and Alison Education, US.
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
Cell no. 9824358505
EMAIL ID: [email protected]; [email protected]
Overview of the Meta-Analysis
What is a Meta-Analysis?
• Meta-Analysis vs. Narrative Review
• Meta-Analysis vs. Single Study
2
QUESTION FIND APPRAISE SYNTHESISE
Meta-analysis
= calculated “best guess” of the true effect size
• The statistical combination of the results gives a pooled,
weighted average of the primary results
• It weights the effect size (result) of each study in relation to
sample size of the study
• Optional part of SR
Systematic reviews
Meta-analyses
Meta-analysis
3
A little bit of History…
• The Great Debate (Lipsey and Wilson, 2001)
– In 1952, Hans J. Eysenck
concluded that there were no
favourable effects of
psychotherapy, starting a raging
debate…
• 25 years of evaluation research
and hundreds of studies failed
to resolve the debate
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Source: Hunter & Schmidt (2004)
Reviews
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Source: Hunter & Schmidt (2004)
Meta-Analysis vs. Narrative
Reviews
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Meta-Analysis vs. Narrative
Reviews
• There is one problem, though:
– The data were constructed by a Monte Carlo simulation:
• The mean population correlation was assumed to be 0.33.
• The sample sizes were randomly chosen from a distribution
centering about 40.
– The variance across correlations and their significance levels
were determined using population correlation and the sample
size.
• The study characteristics were assigned randomly.
– In other words,
• The variation among correlations is entirely the result of sampling
error.
– The significance levels are the result of “random” sample
sizes.
• The moderator effects that appear to make sense are purely the
results of
chance.
8
Meta-Analysis vs. Narrative
Reviews
The crucial lesson:
conflicting results in the literature may be entirely random.
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Meta-Analysis vs. Single Studies
• Single studies may not be sufficient to determine the
utility of an intervention or a hypothesis’ validity.
– E.g., ‘The Great Debate’ on Psychotherapy’s
effectiveness (1952-1977)
(Lipsey and Wilson, 2001).
10
When Can You Do Meta-analysis?
• Meta-analysis is applicable to collections of
research studies that
– Are empirical, rather than theoretical.
– Produce quantitative results, rather than qualitative
findings.
– Examine the same constructs and relationships.
– Provide findings that can be configured in a
comparable statistical form as effect sizes.
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Seven Steps to Conduct a Meta-Analysis
1. Problem Definition
2. Establishing Inclusion or Exclusion Criteria
3. Literature Search and Studies Retrieval
4. Coding Data and Effect Sizes for Studies
5. Doing the Basic Meta-Analysis
– Decide on Fixed-Effects vs. Random-Effects
Meta-Analysis
– Conduct the Basic Meta-Analysis
6. Moderation Analysis
– Testing Potential Systematic Sources of Variance
Across Effect Sizes
7. Generating the Plots (as needed)
– Estimating the Publication Bias
12
Problem Definition
• Forms of Problems Suitable to a Meta-analysis (it determines
the choice of effect size):
– Group Contrasts
• Are employees who are using a system more satisfied
than non-users?
– Pre-Post Contrasts
• How do employees’ job satisfaction levels change after
adopting a system?
13
Establishing Inclusion or Exclusion
Criteria:
Which Studies to Include?
• Possible components of inclusion or exclusion criteria:
– Key variables
• E.g., Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment.
– Distinguishing Features
• E.g., Post-adoption studies.
• Research Samples
– E.g., Studies of online banking users.
– Research methods
• E.g., Survey-based research.
– Time frame
• E.g., After 2000.
– Data Availability
– Potential Moderators.
• Code everything that might explain variation in findings
– Methodological Differences
» E.g., Variations in Measures and Operationalization;
Survey vs. Panel data.
– Study Characteristics
» E.g., Contextual Differences; Quality;
Characteristics of the Sample.
– Theoretical Differences Across Studies
» E.g., Firm Size; Pre-adoption vs. Post-adoption
Studies. 16
Effect Size (ES):
The Key to Meta-Analysis
• An effect size (ES) is a measure of the magnitude and
direction of a relationship between two variables or a contrast
between groups.
– It is the “dependent variable” in meta-analysis.
– The ES encodes the selected research findings on a
numeric scale.
• An ES should be:
– Comparable across studies (generally requires
standardization across studies).
– Independent of sample size.
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Effect Size (ES):
18
Effect Size (ES):
The Standardized Mean Difference
X − X G2
ES = G1 s12 (n1 −1)+ s22 (n2 −1)
spooled =
spooled n1 + n2 − 2
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Effect Size (ES):
The Odds-Ratio
• Represents a group contrast on a dichotomized
measure.
• The odds-ratio is based on a 2 x 2 contingency table:
– The odds of success in the treatment group relative
to the odds of success in the control group.
e.g.,
System Users
e.g.,
Job Satisfaction
ES
Frequencies
Success Failure Source: Lindsey & Wilson (2001)
Treatment Group a b
Control Group c d
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Effect Size (ES):
The Risk Ratio
• Represents a group contrast on a dichotomized measure.
e.g., e.g.,
System Users Job Promotion
Frequencies a / (a + b)
ES =
Success Failure
c / (c + d )
Treatment Group a b
Control Group c d
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Effect Size (ES):
Independent Set of Effect Sizes
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Effect Size (ES): Issues in Coding Effect
Sizes
• Not every article will have a nice correlation table
with sample size (N), alphas, etc.
– So, you may need to look for “r” substitutes:
• Beta values if there is only one independent
variable (IV) in the regression equation.
• Beta if this is the first step in hierarchical
regression.
• A path coefficient in SEM (if no other IVs
affecting that dependent variable).
23
Effect Size (ES)
So far, you
should have a
list of studies
with their:
– Effect sizes
– Sample sizes
– Reliabilities
of Measures
– Potential
moderators
24
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
Fixed-Effects vs. Random-Effects Method
of Meta-Analysis
• Fixed-Effects Meta-Analysis:
25
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
Fixed-Effects vs. Random-Effects Method of Meta-Analysis
27
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
Fixed-Effects vs. Random-Effects Method of Meta-
Analysis
27
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
The objective is to calculate the pooled effect size for the relation
under study, its confidence intervals, and test the homogeneity of effect
sizes in the meta-analysis:
4) Run the basic meta-analysis using the tool (calculated the pooled
effect size):
• Wilson/Lipsey SPSS Macros
• Metafor Package in R
• Mix 2.0
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
1) Correction for the sources of errors in effect sizes:
– Such as measurement errors (measures unreliability):
– So if:
• rxy = .45
• rxx = .93 Reliabilities for
• ryy = .91 variables x and y.
– No reliability reported = 1.
32
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
1) Correction for the sources of errors in effect sizes:
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
2) Transform Corrected Correlations to Fisher’s Z
(standardization)
– We normalize the corrected correlations using:
1+ r
ES Zr = .5 ln
1 − r
= 0.5 x ln (( 1 + .49)/(1 - .49))
= 0.53.
– Depending on the tools that you use, you may need to do this
transformation manually (e.g., in SPSS macros provided by
•
Wilson (2001)).
Some tools can do the transformation for you, such as metafor
package in R or Mix 2.0 software.
34
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
2) Transform Corrected Correlations to Fisher’s Z
(standardization)
1+ r
ES Zr = .5 ln
1 − r
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
3) Weight the effect sizes
– The standard error (SE) is a direct index of ES precision.
• The smaller the SE, the more precise the ES.
• We would like to reduce the effect of effect sizes that
are less precise (have larger SE) on our results.
• Hedges showed that the optimal weight for effect sizes is:
w= 1
SE 2
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
37
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
4) Run the basic meta-analysis using the tool
– Some of the available tools:
• Metafor Package in R
• Mix 2.0
– You need to use the interface/syntaxes depending on the tool you are using.
38
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
Wilson/Lipsey SPSS Macros
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
Metafor Package in R
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
The pooled effect size and its confidence interval
are based on z-transformed
values, hence:
5) Transform the z-transformed pooled effect-size
and its confidence intervals back to correlation,
using:
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
42
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
Meta for Package in R
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Your Turn:
Use Wilson/Lipsey SPSS Macros
Download the
– SPSS data file (Example_Datafile.sav),
– Wilson’s SPSS Macros,
– SPSS syntax
• from:
http://facsrv.cdm.depaul.edu/~hqahrisa/#
service
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Moderator Analysis:
Wilson/Lipsey SPSS Macros
• For Categorical Variables using Meta Factor function (MetaF)
– Analog to a one-way ANOVA
– Useful for testing the differences across mean effect sizes for a
categorical variable.
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Moderator Analysis:
Wilson/Lipsey SPSS Macros
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Moderator Analysis:
Wilson/Lipsey SPSS Macros
• For Categorical and Continuous Variables using Meta
Regression (MetaReg)
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Moderator Analysis:
Wilson/Lipsey SPSS Macros
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Your Turn:
Use Wilson/Lipsey SPSS Macros
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Plots for Meta-Analysis:
Stem and Leaf from Example
Dependent Variable
Stem Leaf
.7 48
.6 00133
.5 256
.4 9
.3
.2 2
.1
.0
-.0 59
-.1 4
-.2
-.3
-.4
-.5
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Plots for Meta-Analysis:
Stem and Leaf (Other examples)
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FOREST PLOTS
Line of no
effect
trials
Confidence
interval
Overall
effect
Measure of
effect
QUESTION FIND APPRAISE SYNTHESISE
P<0.05
Largest
Is treatment better
than control?
How much
better?
QUESTION FIND APPRAISE SYNTHESISE
Heterogeneity
Heterogeneity (diversity)
• Clinical heterogeneity
Variability in the participants, interventions and/or outcomes
studied
• Methodological heterogeneity
Variability in study deign and risk of bias
• Statistical heterogeneity
The observed intervention effects being more different from each
other than we would expect due to random error (chance) alone
QUESTION FIND APPRAISE SYNTHESISE
High heterogeneity
=
appropriate to pool data?
QUESTION FIND APPRAISE SYNTHESISE
68
Plots for Meta-Analysis:
Funnel Plot
• For assessing publication bias (a.k.a., file drawer problem)
– Significant findings are more likely to be published than
non-significant findings.
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Funnel plots
Cutting Edge Issues in Meta-Analysis
• Meta-Analytic Structural Equation Modeling (MASEM)
– Using Meta-Analytic Data for testing Structural Models
using Covariance-based Structural Equation Modeling
(SEM).
• It can provide the best of both worlds: Meta-Analysis &
SEM.
• Can be used for testing hypotheses and theoretical
models.
• More complex than bivariate (basic) meta-analysis.
– Should be implemented using metaSEM package in R:
• https://courses.nus.edu.sg/course/psycwlm/internet/meta
sem/
– References:
• Cheung (2015) book on two-stage MASEM.
• Montazemi & Qahri-Saremi (2015)’s I&M paper.
70
How to do Meta-analysis in SPSS?
• https://www.discoveringstatistics.com/repository/fieldgillett
/how_to_do_a_meta_analysis.html
• A: OPEN: Data :
• Cartwright_hatton_et_al_2004.sav
• B: OPEN: Syntex
• Meta_Analysis_Basic_r.sps
• Run as shown under Menu
• Select all
• C: Output Generated : save by giving specific name as you
wish.
References
• Cheung, M.W.-L. 2015. Meta-Analysis: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach. United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons.
• Field, A.P. 2005. "Is the Meta-Analysis of Correlation Coefficients Accurate When Population Correlations Vary?,"
Psychological Methods (10:4), pp. 444-467.
• Field, A.P., and Gillett, R. 2010. "How to Do a Meta-Analysis," British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology
(63:3), pp. 665-694.
• Glass, G.V. 1976. "Primary, Secondary, and Meta-Analysis of Research," Educational Researcher (5:10), pp. 3-8.
• Hedges, L.V., and Olkin, I. 1985. Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
• Huedo-Medina, T.B., Sánchez-Meca, J., Marín-Martínez, F., and Botella, J. 2006. "Assessing Heterogeneity in Meta-
Analysis: Q Statistic or I² Index?," Psychological Methods (11:2), p. 193.
• Hunter, J.E., and Schmidt, F.L. 2004. Methods of Meta-Analysis: Correcting Error and Bias in Research Findings, (Second
ed.). Sage Publications, Inc.
• Lipsey, M., and Wilson, D.B. 2001. Practical Meta-Analysis. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications:
http://mason.gmu.edu/~dwilsonb/ma.html.
• Moher D., Liberati A., Tetzlaff J., Altman D.G., The PRISMA Group. 2009. “Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic
Reviews and Meta Analyses: The PRISMA Statement”. PLoS Med 6(7): e1000097. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed1000097.
• Montazemi, A.R., and Qahri-Saremi, H. 2015. "Factors Affecting Adoption of Online Banking: A Meta-Analytic Structural
Equation Modeling Study," Information & Management (52:2), pp. 210-226.
• Rosenthal, R. 1979. "The “File Drawer Problem” and Tolerance for Null Results," Psychological Bulletin (86:3), pp. 638-
641.
• Sharma, S., Bottom, W.P., and Elfenbein, H.A. 2013. "On the Role of Personality, Cognitive Ability, and Emotional
Intelligence in Predicting Negotiation Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis," Organizational Psychology Review (3:4), pp. 293-336.
• Viechtbauer, W. 2010. "Conducting Meta-Analyses in R with the Metafor Package," Journal of Statistical Software (36:3),
pp. 1-48.
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Literature Search and Studies Retrieval
Preferred Reporting Items for
Systematic Reviews and Meta-
Analyses (PRISMA):
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
• Calculate the overall weighted mean effect size (fixed-effects
pooled effect size)
ES =
(w ES) z
z
w
Remember: w = n-3.
= 1780.03 / 2888
= 0.62
– Since we have considered sampling error (SE) as the only component of variance for
weighting the effect sizes, this is the “fixed-effect” pooled effect size.
74
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
• Calculate the homogeneity index (Q statistic) for
the effect sizes.
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
• Weight the effect sizes for random-effects
calculation.
– To Calculate the random-effects pooled effect size, we
should add an additional element to the weight for
the effect sizes that reflect “between-study
variance” (T2):
76
The Basic Meta-Analysis:
• Calculate the overall weighted mean effect size (random-
effects pooled effect size) using new weights
*
(w ES)
ES = z
z
w *
= 79.65 / 149.03
= 0.53
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The Basic Meta-Analysis:
• Calculate the confidence interval for the random-
effects pooled effect size:
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