Name: A.M.THRISHIGA SREE Date: 16.11.

2021

Student Exploration: Theoretical and

Experimental Probability

Vocabulary: experimental probability, law of large numbers, outcome, probability,

sample space, theoretical probability, trial

Prior Knowledge Question (Do this BEFORE using the Gizmo.)

Carlos, Margaret, and James are playing a board game with a spinner. The spinner goes from 1
to 6. They start by spinning to see who will go first. (Highest number will go first.)

1. First, Carlos spins a 3. How likely do you think it is that Margaret will get a higher number?

1/2

2. Next, Margaret spins a 5. How likely do you think it is that James will get a higher number?

Gizmo Warm-up
The probability of an event is the likelihood that the event will happen.
Probability is given as a number that ranges from 0 (impossible) to 1
(certain). You can explore probability using numbered spinners with the
Theoretical and Experimental Probability Gizmo.

1. To begin, check that the Number of spinners is 1, Sections is 6, Number is 2, and the
sign is chosen. In this game, a win (a favorable outcome) occurs if the spinner lands on 2.

How likely do you think it is that a player will win the game? Explain.
THE PLAYER HAS 6 CHANCES FOR THE SPINNER TO LAND ON 2

2. On the EXPERIMENTAL tab, click Run 1 trial. What was the outcome? 4

3. Click Clear. Then, click Run 10 trials. How many trials were favorable? 1

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4. Click Run 10 trials 5 more times so there are a total of 60 trials. How many favorable

outcomes did you get out of 60 trials? 11

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 Get the Gizmo ready:
Activity A:
One-spinner  With Number of spinners set to 1, set Sections
games to 3, Number to 1, and the sign to .

1. The set of all possible outcomes make up the sample space of an experiment.

A. What are the possible outcomes of each spin of this spinner? 3

B. Of these outcomes, how many are favorable? 1

C. How many favorable outcomes do you expect in 100 spins? 30

D. Click Run 10 trials 10 times. How many favorable outcomes occurred? 29

Was this close to what you predicted? YES

2. Turn on Show theoretical probabilities. The table shows the number of favorable and
unfavorable outcomes, and the theoretical probabilities as fractions and percentages.

A. What is the theoretical probability of a favorable outcome? 33%

B. What is the theoretical probability of an unfavorable outcome? 67%

C. What is the sum of the favorable and unfavorable probabilities?

3. Turn off Show theoretical probabilities. Change the Sections in the spinner to 7, the
Number to 4, and the sign to .

A. In this game, what are the favorable outcomes? 3/7

B. How many possible outcomes are there? 4/7

C. What is the theoretical probability of a favorable outcome? Give your answer as a

fraction and as a percentage. 4/7 = 57%

Turn on Show theoretical probabilities to check.

4. The experimental probability of an outcome is the fraction (or percentage) of times the
outcome occurs in an experiment. On the EXPERIMENTAL tab, run 100 trials.

A. How many favorable outcomes occurred? 53

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 B. What is experimental probability of a favorable outcome? 53/100 = 53%

5. On the THEORETICAL tab, turn off Show theoretical probabilities. Change the Sections
in the spinner to 10, the Number to 3, and the sign to .

A. As a percentage, what is the probability of a favorable outcome? 2

Turn on Show theoretical probabilities to check your answer.

B. Run 100 trials. How many outcomes were favorable? 17

C. How did the experimental probability compare to the theoretical probability?

6. In general, how do you find the theoretical and experimental probabilities of a favorable
outcome if there are n equally likely outcomes and p of them are favorable?

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 Get the Gizmo ready:
Activity B:
 Select the EXPERIMENTAL tab.
Two-spinner
 Next to Number of spinners, select 2. Set the
games
Sections of each spinner to 2, and the sign to .

1. In this game, two spinners are spun. If the spinners show the same number, the outcome is
favorable. If the spinners show different numbers, the outcome is unfavorable.

A. What are the possible outcomes of spinning these two spinners? List outcomes as

pairs. For example, (1, 1) is a “1” on each spinner. 1,0

B. How many of the outcomes are favorable? 7

C. What do you think is the theoretical probability of a favorable outcome? 2/4

D. On the THEORETICAL tab, turn on Show theoretical probabilities. Were you

correct? YES
Possible blue outcomes

2. Turn off Show theoretical probabilities. Set up this

two-spinner game as described below.
Possible red outcomes

 Set the red spinner Sections to 6.

 Set the blue spinner Sections to 5.
 Select . (Favorable outcome is red < blue.)
In the table to the right, fill in the possible red spinner
values down the left, and the possible blue spinner
values across the top. For each outcome (pair of
numbers), fill in Y (favorable) or N (unfavorable).

A. How many possible outcomes are there? 30

B. How does the number of possible outcomes relate to the number of sections on each

spinner?

C. How many of the outcomes are favorable?

D. What is the theoretical probability of a favorable outcome? 10

Check your answer by turning on Show theoretical probabilities.

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3. In general, how do you find the theoretical probability of a favorable outcome in a two-

spinner game?

Get the Gizmo ready:

Activity C:
 On the THEORETICAL tab, turn off Show
The law of large theoretical probabilities.
numbers  Set the Number of spinners to 1, Sections to
10, Number to 7, and the sign to .

1. Check that the spinner has 10 sections, the Number is 7, and the sign is .

What is the theoretical probability of a favorable outcome? 4/10

Turn on Show theoretical probabilities to check.

2. On the EXPERIMENTAL tab, click Run 10 trials. Record the number and percentage of
favorable outcomes in the first column of the table below. Click Clear. Repeat the
experiment seven more times (clicking Clear after each one) to complete the table.

Experiment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number favorable 5 2 3 7 5 5 6 2
Percentage favorable 50% 20% 30% 70% 50% 50% 60% 20%

3. Click Clear. Now, do the same experiment, but with 100 trials in each experiment. (To run
100 trials, click Run 10 trials 10 times.) Be sure to click Clear after each experiment. Fill in
the table below.

Experiment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number favorable 48 40 53 43 43 49 46 47
Percentage favorable 48% 40% 53% 43% 43% 49% 46% 47%

4. Compare your results in the two data tables above.

A. Which experiment gave more consistent favorable percentages, 10-spins-per-trial or

100-spins-per-trial? 10 SPINS PER TRIAL

B. Which experiment gave experimental probabilities that were closer to the theoretical

probability? 100 SPINS PER TRIAL

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C. In general, how does the number of trials seem to affect experimental probability?

This is an example of the law of large numbers. In general, the greater the number
of trials, the closer the experimental probability will be to the theoretical probability.

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