2/1/2019 04_Linear_Regression_with_multiple_variables

04: Linear Regression with Multiple Variables

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Linear regression with multiple features

New version of linear regression with multiple features

Multiple variables = multiple features

In original version we had
X = house size, use this to predict
y = house price
If in a new scheme we have more variables (such as number of bedrooms, number floors, age of the home)
x1, x2, x3, x4 are the four features
x1 - size (feet squared)
x2 - Number of bedrooms
x3 - Number of floors
x4 - Age of home (years)
y is the output variable (price)
More notation
n
number of features (n = 4)
m
number of examples (i.e. number of rows in a table)
xi
vector of the input for an example (so a vector of the four parameters for the ith input example)
i is an index into the training set
So
x is an n-dimensional feature vector
x3 is, for example, the 3rd house, and contains the four features associated with that house
xji
The value of feature j in the ith training example
So
x23 is, for example, the number of bedrooms in the third house
Now we have multiple features
What is the form of our hypothesis?
Previously our hypothesis took the form;
hθ(x) = θ0 + θ1x
Here we have two parameters (theta 1 and theta 2) determined by our cost function
One variable x
Now we have multiple features
hθ(x) = θ0 + θ1x1 + θ2x2 + θ3x3 + θ4x4
For example
hθ(x) = 80 + 0.1x1 + 0.01x2 + 3x3 - 2x4
An example of a hypothesis which is trying to predict the price of a house
Parameters are still determined through a cost function
For convenience of notation, x0 = 1
For every example i you have an additional 0th feature for each example
So now your feature vector is n + 1 dimensional feature vector indexed from 0
This is a column vector called x
Each example has a column vector associated with it
So let's say we have a new example called "X"
Parameters are also in a 0 indexed n+1 dimensional vector
This is also a column vector called θ
This vector is the same for each example

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Considering this, hypothesis can be written

hθ(x) = θ0x0 + θ1x1 + θ2x2 + θ3x3 + θ4x4
If we do
hθ(x) =θT X
θT is an [1 x n+1] matrix
In other words, because θ is a column vector, the transposition operation transforms it into a
row vector
So before
θ was a matrix [n + 1 x 1]
Now
θT is a matrix [1 x n+1]
Which means the inner dimensions of θT and X match, so they can be multiplied together as
[1 x n+1] * [n+1 x 1]
= hθ(x)
So, in other words, the transpose of our parameter vector * an input example X gives you a
predicted hypothesis which is [1 x 1] dimensions (i.e. a single value)
This x0 = 1 lets us write this like this
This is an example of multivariate linear regression

Gradient descent for multiple variables

Fitting parameters for the hypothesis with gradient descent
Parameters are θ0 to θn
Instead of thinking about this as n separate values, think about the parameters as a single vector (θ)
Where θ is n+1 dimensional
Our cost function is

Similarly, instead of thinking of J as a function of the n+1 numbers, J() is just a function of the parameter vector
J(θ)

Gradient descent

Once again, this is

θj = θj - learning rate (α) times the partial derivative of J(θ) with respect to θJ(...)
We do this through a simultaneous update of every θj value
Implementing this algorithm
When n = 1

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Above, we have slightly different update rules for θ0 and θ1

Actually they're the same, except the end has a previously undefined x0(i) as 1, so wasn't shown
We now have an almost identical rule for multivariate gradient descent

What's going on here?

We're doing this for each j (0 until n) as a simultaneous update (like when n = 1)
So, we re-set θj to
θj minus the learning rate (α) times the partial derivative of of the θ vector with respect to θj
In non-calculus words, this means that we do
Learning rate
Times 1/m (makes the maths easier)
Times the sum of
The hypothesis taking in the variable vector, minus the actual value, times the j-th value in
that variable vector for EACH example
It's important to remember that

These algorithm are highly similar

Gradient Decent in practice: 1 Feature Scaling

Having covered the theory, we now move on to learn about some of the practical tricks
Feature scaling
If you have a problem with multiple features
You should make sure those features have a similar scale
Means gradient descent will converge more quickly
e.g.
x1 = size (0 - 2000 feet)
x2 = number of bedrooms (1-5)
Means the contours generated if we plot θ1 vs. θ2 give a very tall and thin shape due to the huge range
difference
Running gradient descent on this kind of cost function can take a long time to find the global minimum

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Pathological input to gradient descent

So we need to rescale this input so it's more effective
So, if you define each value from x1 and x2 by dividing by the max for each feature
Contours become more like circles (as scaled between 0 and 1)
May want to get everything into -1 to +1 range (approximately)
Want to avoid large ranges, small ranges or very different ranges from one another
Rule a thumb regarding acceptable ranges
-3 to +3 is generally fine - any bigger bad
-1/3 to +1/3 is ok - any smaller bad
Can do mean normalization
Take a feature xi
Replace it by (xi - mean)/max
So your values all have an average of about 0

Instead of max can also use standard deviation

Learning Rate α
Focus on the learning rate (α)
Topics
Update rule
Debugging
How to chose α

Make sure gradient descent is working

Plot min J(θ) vs. no of iterations

(i.e. plotting J(θ) over the course of gradient descent
If gradient descent is working then J(θ) should decrease after every iteration
Can also show if you're not making huge gains after a certain number
Can apply heuristics to reduce number of iterations if need be

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If, for example, after 1000 iterations you reduce the parameters by nearly nothing you could chose to only
run 1000 iterations in the future
Make sure you don't accidentally hard-code thresholds like this in and then forget about why they're their
though!

Number of iterations varies a lot

30 iterations
3000 iterations
3000 000 iterations
Very hard to tel in advance how many iterations will be needed
Can often make a guess based a plot like this after the first 100 or so iterations
Automatic convergence tests
Check if J(θ) changes by a small threshold or less
Choosing this threshold is hard
So often easier to check for a straight line
Why? - Because we're seeing the straightness in the context of the whole algorithm
Could you design an automatic checker which calculates a threshold based on the systems
preceding progress?
Checking its working
If you plot J(θ) vs iterations and see the value is increasing - means you probably need a smaller α
Cause is because your minimizing a function which looks like this

But you overshoot, so reduce learning rate so you actually reach the minimum (green line)

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So, use a smaller α

Another problem might be if J(θ) looks like a series of waves
Here again, you need a smaller α
However
If α is small enough, J(θ) will decrease on every iteration
BUT, if α is too small then rate is too slow
A less steep incline is indicative of a slow convergence, because we're decreasing by less on each
iteration than a steeper slope
Typically
Try a range of alpha values
Plot J(θ) vs number of iterations for each version of alpha
Go for roughly threefold increases
0.001, 0.003, 0.01, 0.03. 0.1, 0.3

Features and polynomial regression

Choice of features and how you can get different learning algorithms by choosing appropriate features
Polynomial regression for non-linear function

Example
House price prediction
Two features
Frontage - width of the plot of land along road (x1)
Depth - depth away from road (x2)
You don't have to use just two features
Can create new features
Might decide that an important feature is the land area
So, create a new feature = frontage * depth (x3)
h(x) = θ0 + θ1x3
Area is a better indicator
Often, by defining new features you may get a better model
Polynomial regression
May fit the data better
θ0 + θ1x + θ2x2 e.g. here we have a quadratic function
For housing data could use a quadratic function
But may not fit the data so well - inflection point means housing prices decrease when size gets really
big
So instead must use a cubic function

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How do we fit the model to this data

To map our old linear hypothesis and cost functions to these polynomial descriptions the easy thing to do
is set
x1 = x
x2 = x2
x3 = x3
By selecting the features like this and applying the linear regression algorithms you can do polynomial
linear regression
Remember, feature scaling becomes even more important here
Instead of a conventional polynomial you could do variable ^(1/something) - i.e. square root, cubed root etc
Lots of features - later look at developing an algorithm to chose the best features

Normal equation
For some linear regression problems the normal equation provides a better solution
So far we've been using gradient descent
Iterative algorithm which takes steps to converse
Normal equation solves θ analytically
Solve for the optimum value of theta
Has some advantages and disadvantages

How does it work?

Simplified cost function

J(θ) = aθ2 + bθ + c
θ is just a real number, not a vector
Cost function is a quadratic function
How do you minimize this?
Do

Take derivative of J(θ) with respect to θ

Set that derivative equal to 0
Allows you to solve for the value of θ which minimizes J(θ)
In our more complex problems;
Here θ is an n+1 dimensional vector of real numbers
Cost function is a function of the vector value
How do we minimize this function
Take the partial derivative of J(θ) with respect θj and set to 0 for every j
Do that and solve for θ0 to θn
This would give the values of θ which minimize J(θ)
If you work through the calculus and the solution, the derivation is pretty complex
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Not going to go through here

Instead, what do you need to know to implement this process

Example of normal equation

Here
m=4
n=4
To implement the normal equation
Take examples
Add an extra column (x0 feature)
Construct a matrix (X - the design matrix) which contains all the training data features in an [m x n+1]
matrix
Do something similar for y
Construct a column vector y vector [m x 1] matrix
Using the following equation (X transpose * X) inverse times X transpose y

If you compute this, you get the value of theta which minimize the cost function

General case

Have m training examples and n features

The design matrix (X)
Each training example is a n+1 dimensional feature column vector
X is constructed by taking each training example, determining its transpose (i.e. column -> row) and
using it for a row in the design A

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This creates an [m x (n+1)] matrix

Vector y
Used by taking all the y values into a column vector

What is this equation?!

(XT * X)-1
What is this --> the inverse of the matrix (XT * X)
i.e. A = XT X
A-1 = (XT X)-1
In octave and MATLAB you could do;

pinv(X'*x)*x'*y

X' is the notation for X transpose

pinv is a function for the inverse of a matrix
In a previous lecture discussed feature scaling
If you're using the normal equation then no need for feature scaling

When should you use gradient descent and when should you use feature scaling?

Gradient descent
Need to chose learning rate
Needs many iterations - could make it slower
Works well even when n is massive (millions)
Better suited to big data
What is a big n though
100 or even a 1000 is still (relativity) small
If n is 10 000 then look at using gradient descent
Normal equation
No need to chose a learning rate
No need to iterate, check for convergence etc.
Normal equation needs to compute (XT X)-1
This is the inverse of an n x n matrix
With most implementations computing a matrix inverse grows by O(n3 )
So not great
Slow of n is large
Can be much slower

Normal equation and non-invertibility

Advanced concept
Often asked about, but quite advanced, perhaps optional material
Phenomenon worth understanding, but not probably necessary
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When computing (XT X)-1 * XT * y)

What if (XT X) is non-invertible (singular/degenerate)
Only some matrices are invertible
This should be quite a rare problem
Octave can invert matrices using
pinv (pseudo inverse)
This gets the right value even if (XT X) is non-invertible
inv (inverse)
What does it mean for (XT X) to be non-invertible
Normally two common causes
Redundant features in learning model
e.g.
x1 = size in feet
x2 = size in meters squared
Too many features
e.g. m <= n (m is much larger than n)
m = 10
n = 100
Trying to fit 101 parameters from 10 training examples
Sometimes work, but not always a good idea
Not enough data
Later look at why this may be too little data
To solve this we
Delete features
Use regularization (let's you use lots of features for a small training set)
If you find (XT X) to be non-invertible
Look at features --> are features linearly dependent?
So just delete one, will solve problem

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