Hypothesis Development and Testing: Sendil Mourougan, Dr. K. Sethuraman
Hypothesis Development and Testing: Sendil Mourougan, Dr. K. Sethuraman
e-ISSN: 2278-487X, p-ISSN: 2319-7668. Volume 19, Issue 5. Ver. I (May. 2017), PP 34-40
www.iosrjournals.org
Abstract : Hypothesis testing is an important activity of evidence-based research. A well worked up hypothesis
is half the answer to the research question. For this, both knowledge of the subject derived from extensive
review of the literature and working knowledge of basic statistical concepts are desirable. Thist paper discusses
the methods of working up a good hypothesis and statistical concepts of hypothesis testing.
Keywords: Effect size, Hypothesis testing, Type I error, Type II error
I. Introduction
A research hypothesis is the statement created by researchers when they speculate upon the outcome of
a research or experiment. Every true experimental design must have this statement at the core of its structure, as
the ultimate aim of any experiment. The hypothesis is generated via a number of means, but is usually the result
of a process of inductive reasoning where observations lead to the formation of a theory. Scientists then use a
large battery of deductive methods to arrive at a hypothesis that is testable, falsifiable and realistic. The first step
in the scientific process is not observation but the generation of a hypothesis which may then be tested critically
by observations and experiments. The goal of the scientist’s efforts is not the verification but the falsification of
the initial hypothesis.
II. Hypothesis
Research usually starts with a problem. Questions, objectives and hypotheses provide a specific
restatement and clarification of the problem statement/research question. Hypothesis is a tentative explanation
that accounts for a set of facts and can be tested by further investigation. Hypothesis should be statements
expressing the relation between two or more measurable variables. It should carry clear implications for testing
the stated relations.
A hypothesis may be precisely defined as a tentative proposition suggested as a solution to a problem or as
an explanation of some phenomenon. (Ary, Jacobs and Razavieh, 1984)
A hypothesis is a conjectural statement of the relation between two or more variables. (Kerlinger, 1956)
Hypothesis is a formal statement that presents the expected relationship between an independent and
dependent variable. (Creswell, 1994)
Hypothesis relates theory to observation and observation to theory. (Ary, Jacobs and Razavieh, 1984)
Hypotheses are relational propositions. (Kerlinger, 1956)
Hypothesis needs to be structured before the data-gathering and interpretation phase of the research. A
well-grounded hypothesis indicates that the researcher has sufficient knowledge in the area to undertake the
investigation. The hypothesis gives direction to the collection and interpretation of data.
Consider the example of a simple association between two variables, Y and X.
1. Y and X are associated (or, there is an association between Y and X).
2. Y is related to X (or, Y is dependent on X).
3. As X increases, Y decreases (or, increases in values of X appear to effect reduction in values of Y).
The first hypothesis provides a simple statement of association between Y and X. Nothing is indicated
about the association that would allow the researcher to determine which variable, Y or X, would tend to
cause the other variable to change in value.
The second hypothesis is also a simple statement of association between Y and X, but this time it may be
inferred that values of Y are in some way contingent upon the condition of the X variable.
The third hypothesis is the most specific of the three. Not only does it say that Y and X are related and that
Y is dependent on X for its value, but it also reveals something more about the nature of the association
between the two variables.
Inductive Approach: Inductive reasoning works the other way, moving from specific observations to
broader generalizations and theories. Informally, sometimes this is called as a "bottom up" approach. In
inductive reasoning, researcher begin with specific observations and measures, begin to detect patterns and
regularities, formulate some tentative hypotheses that he can explore, and finally end up developing some
general conclusions or theories.
These two methods of reasoning have a very different "feel" while conducting a research. Inductive
reasoning, by its very nature, is more open-ended and exploratory, especially at the beginning. Deductive
reasoning is narrower in nature and is concerned with testing or confirming hypotheses. Even though a
particular study may look like it's purely deductive, most social research involves both inductive and deductive
reasoning processes at some time in the project.
Though the technical details differ from situation to situation, all hypothesis tests use the same core set
of terms and concepts. The following descriptions of common terms and concepts refer to a hypothesis test in
which the means of two populations are being compared.
In the field of statistics, a hypothesis is a claim about some aspect of a population. A hypothesis test
allows us to test the claim about the population and find out how likely it is to be true. The hypothesis test
consists of several components; two statements, the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis, the test
statistic and the critical value, which in turn gives us the p-value and the rejection region ( ), respectively.
Null Hypothesis: The null hypothesis, denoted as 0 is the statement that the value of the parameter is, in
fact, equal to the claimed value. It is assumed that the null hypothesis is true until the researcher prove that
it is not.
Alternate Hypothesis: The alternative hypothesis, denoted as 1 is the statement that the value of the
parameter differs in some way from the null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis can use the symbols <,
>, ≠.
Test Statistic: The test statistic is the tool researcher use to decide whether or not to reject the null
hypothesis. It is obtained by taking the observed value (the sample statistic) and converting it into a
standard score under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. The test statistic depends
fundamentally on the number of observations that are being evaluated. It differs from situation to situation.
The whole notion of hypothesis rests on the ability to specify (exactly or approximately) the distribution
that the test statistic follows.
Significance: The significance level is a measure of the statistical strength of the hypothesis test. It is often
characterized as the probability of incorrectly concluding that the null hypothesis is false. The significance
level should be specified up front. The significance level is typically one of three values: 10%, 5%, or 1%.
A 1% significance level represents the strongest test of the three. For this reason, 1% is a higher
significance level than 10%.
Power: Related to significance, the power of a test measures the probability of correctly concluding that the
null hypothesis is true. Power is not something that researcher can choose. It is determined by several
factors, including the significance level selected and the size of the difference between the things researcher
is trying to compare. Unfortunately, significance and power are inversely related. Increasing significance
decreases power. This makes it difficult to design experiments that have both very high significance and
power.
Critical Value: The critical value is the standard score that separates the rejection region ( ) from the rest
of a given curve. The critical value in a hypothesis test is based on two things: the distribution of the test
statistic and the significance level. The critical value(s) refer to the point in the test statistic distribution that
give the tails of the distribution an area (meaning probability) exactly equal to the significance level that
was chosen.
Decision: Your decision to reject or accept the null hypothesis is based on comparing the test statistic to the
critical value. If the test statistic exceeds the critical value, you should reject the null hypothesis. In this
case, you would say that the difference between the two population means is significant. Otherwise, you
accept the null hypothesis.
p-Value: It is the area to the left or right of the test statistic. The p-value of a hypothesis test gives another
way to evaluate the null hypothesis. The p-value represents the highest significance level at which particular
test statistic would justify rejecting the null hypothesis. For example, if the significance level of 5% is
chosen, and the p-value turns out to be .03 (or 3%), it would be justified in rejecting the null hypothesis.
Type I (also known as ‘α’) Errors: A Type I Error occur when researcher is rejecting a null hypothesis
and accepting alternate hypothesis.
Type II (also known as ‘β’) Errors: A Type II Error occur when researcher is accepting null hypothesis
and rejecting alternate hypothesis.
Z-Value: Z value is a measure of standard deviation i.e. how many standard deviation away from mean is
the observed value. For example, the value of z value = +1.8 can be interpreted as the observed value is
+1.8 standard deviations away from the mean. p-values are probabilities. Both these statistics terms are
associated with the standard normal distribution. p-values associated with each z-value can be looked up in
Z-table. Below is the formula to calculate z value:
Here X is the point on the curve, μ is mean of the population and σ is standard deviation of population.
H1: parameter < value. Notice the inequality points to the left.
Decision Rule: Reject H0 if test parameter. < critical value.
H1: parameter > value. Notice the inequality points to the right
Decision Rule: Reject H0 if test parameter. > Critical value.
H1: parameter not equal value. Another way to write not equal is < or >.
Notice the inequality points to both sides
Decision Rule: Reject H0 if test parameter < critical value. (Left) or test parameter. > critical value. (right)
To sum up, we can say that the basic difference between one-tailed and two-tailed test lies in the
direction, i.e. in case the research hypothesis entails the direction of interrelation or difference, then one-tailed
test is applied, but if the research hypothesis does not signify the direction of interaction or difference, we use
two-tailed test. This explains how to determine if the test is a left tail, right tail, or two-tail test. The type of test
is determined by the Alternative Hypothesis (H1).
V. Conclusion
The empirical approach to research cannot eliminate uncertainty completely. At the best, it can
quantify uncertainty. This uncertainty can be of 2 types: Type I error (falsely rejecting a null hypothesis) and
type II error (falsely accepting a null hypothesis). The acceptable magnitudes of type I and type II errors are set
in advance and are important for sample size calculations. Another important point to remember is that we
cannot ‘prove’ or ‘disprove’ anything by hypothesis testing and statistical tests. We can only knock down or
reject the null hypothesis and by default accept the alternative hypothesis. If we fail to reject the null hypothesis,
we accept it by default. In this article, we have looked at the complete process of undertaking hypothesis testing.
Initially, we looked at the concept of hypothesis followed by the types of hypothesis and way to validate
hypothesis to make an informed decision.
References
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