Risk Assessment Data Directory

Report No. 434 – 2

March 2010

Blowout
frequencies
International Association of Oil & Gas Producers
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contents
1.0 Scope and Definitions ........................................................... 1
1.1 Application ...................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Definitions ....................................................................................................... 1
2.0 Summary of Recommended Data ............................................ 2
3.0 Guidance on use of data ........................................................ 6
3.1 General validity ............................................................................................... 6
3.2 Uncertainties ................................................................................................... 6
3.3 Example ........................................................................................................... 6
4.0 Review of data sources ......................................................... 7
4.1 Basis of data presented ................................................................................. 7
4.2 Onshore blowouts ........................................................................................ 11
4.3 Other data sources ....................................................................................... 12
5.0 Recommended data sources for further information ............ 12
6.0 References .......................................................................... 13

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Abbreviations:
BOP Blowout Preventer
DNV Det Norske Veritas
EUB Alberta Energy and Utilities Board
GoM Gulf of Mexico
HPHT High Pressure High Temperature
NSS North Sea Standard
OCS (US) Outer Continental Shelf
UKCS United Kingdom Continental Shelf

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1.0 Scope and Definitions

1.1 Application
This datasheet presents (Section 2.0) frequencies of blowouts and well control
incidents. They are intended to be applied to well operations worldwide, both offshore
and onshore, as indicated in the table headings.

1.2 Definitions
The following definitions are taken from [1]:
• Blowout An incident where formation fluid flows out of the well or
between formation layers after all the predefined technical
well barriers or the activation of the same have failed.
• W ell release An incident where hydrocarbons flow from the well at some
point where flow was not intended and the flow was
stopped by use of the barrier system that was available on
the well at the time of the incident,
• Shallow gas An incident where shallow gas is released from the well
release after a gas zone has been penetrated before the BOP has
been installed (any zone penetrated after the BOP is
installed is not a shallow gas incidents)
• Oil well A well where the formation has an estimated gas/oil ratio
(GOR) less than 1,000
• Gas well A well where the formation has an estimated gas/oil ratio
(GOR) exceeding 1,000
• HPHT well A well with an expected shut-in pressure equal to or above
690 bar (10,000 psi) and/or bottom hole temperatures equal
to or above 150°C (300°F)
• North Sea Operation performed with BOP installed including shear
Standard (NSS) ram and two barrier principle followed
operation
• Production Production, injection and closed in production wells
• W ell intervention Completion, wireline, coiled tubing, snubbing and other
workover operations
• W ireline Wireline operations in production or injection wells (i.e. not
wireline operations carried out as part of drilling and
completion operations)
• W orkover Workover activities (not including wireline, snubbing or
coiled tubing operations). Often referred to as "heavy
workover"

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2.0 Summary of Recommended Data

For well operations in the North Sea and in other offshore areas where the equipment is
of North Sea Standard (see Section 1.2), Scandpower’s analysis [2] of SINTEF’s blowout
database is recommended. For well operations in other areas of the world, SINTEF’s
own analysis [1] of the database is recommended. Both sets of data are tabulated
below. In the original reports [1,2] they are presented in different ways, however so far
as possible the tables below are consistent in layout for easy comparison.
For North Sea Standard operations, [2] does not give separate frequencies for topside
and subsea releases, except for shallow gas releases. DNV have estimated the fractions
of subsea releases where applicable; these are also included in the table below.
For onshore operations, comparable data were not found. It is recommended to use the
offshore data presented here. Some possibly indicative values are presented in Section
4.2.

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Blowout and W ell Release Frequencies for Offshore Operations of North Sea
Standard
Operation Category Frequency Fractio
Averag Gas Oil Unit n
e Subsea
-4
Exploration Drilling, Topside Blowout 6.0 × 10 - per drilled
shallow gas well
-4
Diverted Well Release 8.3 × 10 - per drilled
well
-5
Well Release 9.3 × 10 - per drilled
well
-4
Subsea Blowout 9.8 × 10 - per drilled
well
-4
Development Drilling, Topside Blowout 4.7 × 10 - per drilled
shallow gas well
-4
Diverted Well Release 6.5 × 10 - per drilled
well
-5
Well Release 7.3 × 10 - per drilled
well
-4
Subsea Blowout 7.4 × 10 - per drilled
well
-4 -4 -4
Exploration Drilling, deep Blowout 3.1 × 10 3.6 × 10 2.5 × 10 per drilled 0.39
(normal wells) well
-3 -3 -3
Well Release 2.5 × 10 2.9 × 10 2.0 × 10 per drilled 0.39
well
-3 -3 -3
Exploration Drilling, deep Blowout 1.9 × 10 2.2 × 10 1.5 × 10 per drilled 0.39
(HPHT wells) well
-2 -2 -2
Well Release 1.6 × 10 1.8 × 10 1.2 × 10 per drilled 0.39
well
-5 -5 -5
Development Drilling, deep Blowout 6.0 × 10 7.0 × 10 4.8 × 10 per drilled 0.33
(normal wells) well
-4 -4 -4
Well Release 4.9 × 10 5.7 × 10 3.9 × 10 per drilled 0.33
well
-4 -4 -4
Development Drilling, deep Blowout 3.7 × 10 4.3 × 10 3.0 × 10 per drilled 0.33
(HPHT wells) well
-3 -3 -3
Well Release 3.0 × 10 3.5 × 10 2.4 × 10 per drilled 0.33
well
-5 -4 -5
Completion Blowout 9.7 × 10 1.4 × 10 5.4 × 10 per operation 0
-4 -4 -4
Well Release 3.9 × 10 5.8 × 10 2.2 × 10 per operation 0
-6 -6 -6
Wirelining Blowout 6.5 × 10 9.4 × 10 3.6 × 10 per operation 0
-5 -5 -6
Well Release 1.1 × 10 1.6 × 10 6.1 × 10 per operation 0
-4 -4 -5
Coiled Tubing Blowout 1.4 × 10 2.0 × 10 7.8 × 10 per operation 0
-4 -4 -4
Well Release 2.3 × 10 3.4 × 10 1.3 × 10 per operation 0
-4 -4 -4
Snubbing Blowout 3.4 × 10 4.9 × 10 1.9 × 10 per operation 0
-4 -4 -4
Well Release 1.8 × 10 2.6 × 10 1.0 × 10 per operation 0
-4 -4 -4
Workover Blowout 1.8 × 10 2.6 × 10 1.0 × 10 per operation 0
-4 -4 -4
Well Release 5.8 × 10 8.3 × 10 3.2 × 10 per operation 0
-6 -5 -6
Producing Wells Blowout 9.7 × 10 1.8 × 10 2.6 × 10 per well year 0.125
-5 -5 -6
(excluding external causes) Well Release 1.1 × 10 2.0 × 10 2.9 × 10 per well year 0.125
-5 -5 -5
Producing Wells, external Blowout 3.9 × 10 3.9 × 10 3.9 × 10 per well year 0.125
causes Well Release - - - per well year -
-5
Gas Injection Wells Blowout - 1.8 × 10 - per well year 0.125
-5
Well Release - 2.0 × 10 - per well year 0.125
-6
Water Injection Wells Blowout 2.4 × 10 - - per well year 0.125
Well Release - - - per well year -

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Blowout and W ell Release Frequencies for Offshore Operations Not of North Sea
Standard
Operation Category Well Frequency Fractio
Type n
Subsea
-3
Exploration Drilling, Blowout (surface flow) Appraisal 1.3 × 10 per drilled 0.59
shallow gas well
-3
Wildcat 1.9 × 10 per drilled 0.59
well
1 2
Blowout (underground flow) Appraisal 0 per drilled 0
well
1 2
Wildcat 0 per drilled 0
well
-4
Diverted well release Appraisal 3.2 × 10 per drilled 0
well
-4
Wildcat 9.3 × 10 per drilled 0
well
-4
Well release Appraisal 3.2 × 10 per drilled 1.0
well
-4
Wildcat 2.7 × 10 per drilled 1.0
well
-4
Development Drilling, Blowout (surface flow) - 9.6 × 10 per drilled 0.18
shallow gas well
-5 2
Blowout (underground flow) - 4.4 × 10 per drilled 0
well
-4
Diverted well release - 7.0 × 10 per drilled 0
well
-5
Well release - 8.8 × 10 per drilled 0
well
-3
Exploration Drilling, deep Blowout (surface flow) Appraisal 1.4 × 10 per drilled 0.41
well
-3
Wildcat 1.7 × 10 per drilled 0.41
well
1
Blowout (underground flow) Appraisal 0 per drilled -
well
-4 2
Wildcat 9.3 × 10 per drilled 0.17
well
1
Diverted well release Appraisal 0 per drilled -
well
1
Wildcat 0 per drilled -
well
1 3
Well release Appraisal 0 per drilled 1.0
well
1 3
Wildcat 0 per drilled 1.0
well
-4
Development Drilling, deep Blowout (surface flow) - 3.5 × 10 per drilled 0.14
well
-4 2
Blowout (underground flow) - 1.3 × 10 per drilled 0
well
1
Diverted well release - 0 per drilled -
well
-4
Well release - 2.2 × 10 per drilled 0.25
well
-4
Completion Blowout (surface flow) - 4.6 × 10 per 0
completion
1
Blowout (underground flow) - 0 per 0
completion
-4
Diverted well release - 3.1 × 10 per 0
completion
1
Well release - 0 per 0
completion

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Blowout and W ell Release Frequencies for Offshore Operations Not of North Sea
Standard
Operation Category Well Frequency Fractio
Type n
Subsea
-5
Production Blowout (surface flow) - 3.3 × 10 per well year 0.43
-6 2
Blowout (underground flow) - 4.7 × 10 per well year 0
1
Diverted well release - 0 per well year 0
-6
Well release - 9.5 × 10 per well year 0
-3
Workover Blowout (surface flow) - 1.0 × 10 per workover 0.05
1 2
Blowout (underground flow) - 0 per workover 0
1
Diverted well release - 0 per workover 0
-4
Well release - 8.5 × 10 per workover 0
-5
Wireline Blowout (surface flow) - 1.1 × 10 per wireline 0
job
1
Blowout (underground flow) - 0 per wireline 0
job
1
Diverted well release - 0 per wireline 0
job
-5
Well release - 1.1 × 10 per wireline 0
job

Notes
1. Based on no incidents to date. However, these scenarios are considered credible. Table 4.1
gives population data, from which estimates can be made of these frequencies if required.
2. For underground flow releases there are no topsides releases. For all other releases,
fractions of releases occurring at topsides = (1 - fraction subsea).
3. Only 2 occurrences, both located at subsea wellhead (see Section 4.1). Subsea fraction = 0 if
wellheads are located at topsides.

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3.0 Guidance on use of data

3.1 General validity
The data presented in Section 2.0 should be considered valid for the North Sea and US
GoM OCS.
They can also be applied to other areas of the world, according to whether or not
standards are considered to be equivalent to those in the North Sea.
For onshore operations it is recommended to use the offshore data presented in Section
2.0.

3.2 Uncertainties
As in any analysis of historical frequencies, there are uncertainties in:
• The population (in this case, wells drilled, well operations or well years)
• The incident data
In particular, where incidents are infrequent, another incident just after the data period
may significantly increase the statistical frequency, especially when no incidents have
been recorded to date but are nevertheless credible (as is the case with some of the
SINTEF category – well type combinations).
The SINTEF database [1] has been extensively reviewed to ensure that it is as complete
as possible in regard both to population and incidents, minimising so far as possible
these uncertainties. According to [1]:
“It is SINTEF’s belief that from 1980-01-01 most blowouts occurring in the US
Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), the UK and Norway have
been included in the database.”
Therefore, they present frequencies based on this period and these geographical areas.
Neither SINTEF [1] nor Scandpower [2] have, in their reports, quantified these
uncertainties in the way that, for example, OREDA [5] does for equipment reliability;
instead they have focused on data quality.
Further potential uncertainties arise where the frequencies are used outside the context
of the data, for example, in other areas of the world. SINTEF present data for all
blowouts in their database, covering 49 countries/areas, and incident data for 4 other
countries/waters. However, the populations and numbers of blowouts in each case are
small, and hence SINTEF do not recommend using frequency estimates obtained from
these data in preference to the data used to obtain the frequencies presented in Section
2.0 (see Section 4.1). Hence there is greater uncertainty in using the data for other
countries/waters but no quantification of this uncertainty is available. Using the
frequencies for operations not of North Sea Standard will introduce an element of
conservatism to any analysis.

3.3 Example
A hypothetical North Sea platform has 8 oil producing wells and 2 gas injection wells.
There are one workover and two wireline jobs per year on the platform oil wells. The
following extract from Section 2.0 highlights the relevant frequencies:

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Operation Category Frequency Fractio

Averag Gas Oil Unit n
e Subsea

-6 -6 -6
Wirelining Blowout 6.5 × 10 9.4 × 10 3.6 × 10 per 0
operation
-5 -5 -6
Well Release 1.1 × 10 1.6 × 10 6.1 × 10 per 0
operation

-4 -4 -4
Workover Blowout 1.8 × 10 2.6 × 10 1.0 × 10 per 0
operation
-4 -4 -4
Well Release 5.8 × 10 8.3 × 10 3.2 × 10 per 0
operation
-6 -5 -6
Producing Wells Blowout 9.7 × 10 1.8 × 10 2.6 × 10 per well 0.125
(excluding external causes) year
-5 -5 -6
Well Release 1.1 × 10 2.0 × 10 2.9 × 10 per well 0.125
year

-5
Gas Injection Wells Blowout - 1.8 × 10 - per well 0.125
year
-5
Well Release - 2.0 × 10 - per well 0.125
year

The annual frequencies of blowouts and well releases are then:

Blowouts: (8 × 2.6 × 10-6) + (2 × 1.8 × 10-5) + (1 × 1.0 × 10-4) + (2 × 3.6 × 10-6) ≈ 1.6 × 10-4
Well releases: (8 × 2.9 × 10-6) + (2 × 2.0 × 10-5) + (1 × 3.2 × 10-4) + (2 × 6.1 × 10-6) ≈
4.0 × 10-4
The annual frequencies of topsides and subsea blowouts are:
Topsides Blowouts:
(0.875 × 8 × 2.6 × 10-6) + (0.875 ×2 × 1.8 × 10-5) + (1 × 1.0 × 10-4) + (2 × 3.6 × 10-6) ≈
1.6 × 10-4
Subsea Blowouts: (0.125 × 8 × 2.6 × 10-6) + (0.125 ×2 × 1.8 × 10-5) ≈ 7.1 × 10-6
Topsides Well releases:
(0.875 × 8 × 2.9 × 10-6) + (0.875 × 2 × 2.0 × 10-5) + (1 × 3.2 × 10-4) + (2 × 6.1 × 10-6) ≈
3.9 × 10-4
Subsea Well releases: (0.125 × 8 × 2.9 × 10-6) + (0.125 × 2 × 2.0 × 10-5) ≈ 7.9 × 10-6

4.0 Review of data sources

4.1 Basis of data presented
The key data source is the SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database, described in [1]. SINTEF
have performed their own analysis of this database, updated annually, in order to obtain
the frequencies set out in Section 2.0. These are based on blowout data from the US
Gulf of Mexico OCS, UKCS and Norwegian waters for the period 1st January 1980 to 1st
January 2005. Table 4.1 gives the numbers of wells and incidents in the database for
these areas and period.
Scandpower [2] annually review the SINTEF database and analyse it further to obtain
blowout frequencies applicable specifically to the North Sea (and other places where
equipment standards are comparable). They use the most recent 20 years’ data

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available. Their report explains how the analysis is done, however two key elements of
this are:
• Elimination of irrelevant incidents
• Adjustment due to trend over time
Table 4.2 sets out the numbers of wells and incidents used in their analysis.
[4] provides the basis for the HPHT well frequencies, concluding that the blowout
frequency for an HPHT well is 12.3 times higher than for a normal well (including
underground blowouts).

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Table 4.1 Num bers of W ells and Incidents in SINTEF Offshore Blowout
Database [1]

Operation Category Well No. of

Type Wells/
Incidents
Exploration Drilling, Number of Exploration Appraisal 6,257 Wells
shallow gas Wells Drilled Wildcat 7,505 Wells
Blowout (surface flow) Appraisal 8
Wildcat 14
Blowout (underground Appraisal 0
flow) Wildcat 0
Diverted well release Appraisal 2
Wildcat 7
Well release Appraisal 2
Wildcat 2
Development Drilling, Number of Development - 22,833 Wells
shallow gas Wells Drilled
Blowout (surface flow) - 22
Blowout (underground - 1
flow)
Diverted well release - 16
Well release - 2
Exploration Drilling, deep Number of Exploration Appraisal 6,257 Wells
Wells Drilled Wildcat 7,505 Wells
Blowout (surface flow) Appraisal 9
Wildcat 13
Blowout (underground Appraisal 0
flow) Wildcat 7
1
Diverted well release Appraisal 0
1
Wildcat 0
Well release Appraisal 3
Wildcat 3
Development Drilling, Number of Development 22,833 Wells
deep Wells Drilled
Blowout (surface flow) - 8
Blowout (underground - 3
flow)
Diverted well release - 0
Well release - 5
Completion Number of Completions 20,328 Wells
Blowout (surface flow) - 9
Blowout (underground - 0
flow)
Diverted well release - 6
Well release - 0
Production Number of Well Years in 211,142 Well
Service Years
Blowout (surface flow) - 7
Blowout (underground - 1
flow)
Diverted well release - 0
Well release - 2
Workover Number of Workovers 19,920
Workovers
Blowout (surface flow) - 20
Blowout (underground - 0
flow)
Diverted well release - 0
Well release - 17
Wirelining Number of Wireline Jobs 358,941

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Operation Category Well No. of

Type Wells/
Incidents
Wireline Jobs
Blowout (surface flow) - 4
Blowout (underground - 0
flow)
Diverted well release - 0
Well release - 4
Table 4.2 Num bers of W ells and Incidents in Scandpower Blowout Analysis
[2]

Operation Category No. of

Wells/
Incidents
Exploration Drilling Number of Wells Drilled 9,172 Wells
(shallow gas) Incidents 26
Development Drilling Number of Wells Drilled 13,022 Wells
(shallow gas) Incidents 29
Drilling (deep) Number of Wells Drilled 9,744 Wells
Blowout 2
Number of Wells Drilled 2,854 Wells
Well release 4
All Well Interventions Number of Oil Well Years in 95,270 Wells
Service Years
Number of Gas Well Years in 82,204 Wells
Service Years
Completion Number of Completions 16,381
Completions
Blowout 4
Well release 4
Wireline Number of Wireline Ops Per 1.7 Ops/Year
2
Year
Blowout 4
Well release 2
3
Coiled Tubing Number of Coiled Tubing Ops 358 Ops
2
Number of Well Years 4,214 Well
Years
Blowout 2
Well release 2
3
Snubbing Number of Snubbing Operations 196 Ops
2
Number of Well Years 4,214 well
years
Blowout 3
Well release 1
Workover Workover Interval – Oil Wells [3] 5 years
Workover Interval – Gas Wells 7 years
[3]
Blowout 8
Well release 11
Production Number of Well Years in Service 177,474 Well
Years
Blowout – external causes 7
Blowout – not external causes 5
Well release 2

Notes to Table 4.1 and Table 4.2

1. No number of incidents is given in the report for this scenario. It has been assumed that
there have been 0 such incidents to date.
2. Assumed based on feedback from oil companies.

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3. Norwegian Sector only used as basis for frequency estimates.

The basis for the subsea fractions for North Sea Standard operations are as follows:
• Exploration drilling, deep blowouts: 12 out of 31 from outside casing or underground
− Assumed also to apply to exploration drilling, deep well releases
− Assumed to be the same for HPHT wells as for normal wells
• Development drilling, deep blowouts: 5 out of 15 from outside casing or
underground
− Assumed also to apply to development drilling, deep well releases
− Assumed to be the same for HPHT wells as for normal wells
• Production well releases (excluding external causes): assumed to be the same as for
production blowouts (excluding external causes)
− Assumed also to apply to production well releases, external causes
− Assumed also to apply to gas and water injection wells
From the SINTEF report [1], Tables 4.5 to 4.7, the basis for the subsea fractions for
operations not of North Sea Standard are as follows:
• Exploration drilling, shallow gas blowouts:
− Surface flow: 13 out of 22 with known location
− Diverted well release: 9, assumed to have been topsides
− Well release: 2 out of 2 at subsea wellhead
− All assumed to be same for appraisal and wildcat wells
• Development drilling, shallow gas blowouts:
− Surface flow: 4 out of 22
− Underground: 1 at wellhead, assumed topsides
− Diverted well release: 16 at wellhead, assumed topsides
− Well release: 1 at subsea wellhead
• Exploration drilling, deep blowouts:
− Surface flow: 9 out of 22 with known location
− Underground: 1 out of 6 with known location (remainder no surface flow)
− Diverted well release, well release: all topsides
• Development drilling, deep blowouts:
− Surface flow: 1 out of 7 with known location
− Underground: 3 out of 3 no surface flow
− Well release: 1 out of 4 with known location
• Completion blowouts: 0 out of 15 subsea
• Production blowouts:
− Surface flow: 3 out of 7 with known location
− Underground: 1 out of 1 no surface flow
− Well release: 0 out of 2 with known location
• Workover blowouts:
− Surface flow: 1 out of 19 with known location
− Well release: 0 out of 17
• Wireline blowouts: 0 out of 7 with known location

4.2 Onshore blowouts

For onshore blowouts, the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) maintains a
database of onshore drilling incidents [6]. This database includes drilling occurrence

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data for Alberta from 1975 till 1990 with a total of 87,944 wells drilled. The database
contains incident reports for individual well control occurrences. The occurrence data
are presented below.

Category Number of Occurrences Frequency (per well

drilled)

Blow* 53 6.0 x 10-4

Blowout 43 4.9 x 10-4
Total 96 1.1 x 10 -3
* A category of well control incident defined as an uncontrolled release of wellbore fluids to
atmosphere that can be shut-in or diverted to flare in a short period of time. They are assumed
here to be equivalent to well releases as defined in the SINTEF and Scandpower work.
The total frequency is about 40% of the corresponding value for offshore drilling
blowouts.
During 2002 – 2006 there were 39 blowouts and 88,856 wells drilled (blows no longer
being recorded). Of the 39 blowouts, 7 involved release of gas, the remainder released
only fresh water. Taking the full number of blowouts gives a frequency of 4.4 × 10-4
blowouts per well drilled, about 10% smaller than the frequency above from 1975 – 1990
data and hence not significantly lower.
For comparison, this is about 40% of the corresponding value for offshore drilling
blowouts and well releases presented in Section 2.0. However it should be noted that
Alberta wells are believed to be sour, with precautions being taken accordingly to
minimise the likelihood of releases. Hence use of the above frequencies is not
recommended except in a similar context.
EUB also records the numbers of blowouts during well interventions and other
blowouts (from producing or suspended wells) but they do not record the
corresponding population data (numbers of well interventions, producing wells and
suspended wells).

4.3 Other data sources

Other databases previously used have been:
• BLOWOUT, an internal DNV compilation of blowouts and well control incidents from
the North Sea and US waters during 1970-89.
• WOAD (World Offshore Accident Databank), a public-domain database maintained
by DNV covering all offshore hazards.
The data from both of these are now included in the SINTEF database and hence are
superseded.

5.0 Recommended data sources for further information

The SINTEF and Scandpower reports [1,2] should be consulted for further information.
In particular, the Scandpower report [2] explains how the frequencies presented in
Section 2.0 are derived from the statistics in Table 4.2.

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6.0 References
1. SINTEF 2006. Blowout and Well Release Characteristics and Frequencies, 2006, Report
No. STF50 F06112.
2. Scandpower Risk Management AS 2006. Blowout and Well Release Frequencies –
Based on SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database, 2006, Report No. 90.005.001/R2.
3. Nilsen, E F 1999. Basis utblåsningsfrekvenser 1999, internal technical memo, Statoil
HMS T&T SIK.
4. SINTEF Safety and Reliability, Alliance Technology, Scandpower 1998. Estimation of
Blowout Probability of HPHT Wells, Report No. STF38 F98420.
5. OREDA 2002.
6. Alberta Energy and Utilities Board. Oil and Gas Well Blowout Reports.

©OGP 13
  
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United Kingdom
Telephone: +44 (0)20 7633 0272
Fax: +44 (0)20 7633 2350

165 Bd du Souverain
4th Floor
B-1160 Brussels, Belgium
Telephone: +32 (0)2 566 9150
Fax: +32 (0)2 566 9159

Internet site: www.ogp.org.uk

e-mail: [email protected]