Systems Thinking
Introduction
Session 1-
Part 2
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Systems Thinking Teacher’s Guide Session 1
Introduction
Date Developed: 2013 page 1 SMPSYSTH001 v2014 QCCI
Causal loop diagram
Example of positive reinforcing loop: Bank
balance and Earned interest A causal loop
diagram (CLD) is a causal diagram that aids in
visualizing how interrelated variables affect
one another. The diagram consists of a set of
nodes representing the variables connected
together. The relationships between these
variables, represented by arrows, can be
labeled as positive or negative.
Example of positive reinforcing loop:
The amount of the Bank Balance will affect the amount of the Earned Interest, as represented by the
top blue arrow, pointing from Bank Balance to Earned Interest.
Systems Thinking Teacher’s Guide Session 1
Introduction
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Since an increase in Bank balance results in an increase in Earned Interest, this link is positive, which is
denoted with a ""+"". The Earned interest gets added to the Bank balance, also a positive link,
represented by the bottom blue arrow. The causal effect between these nodes forms a positive
reinforcing loop, represented by the green arrow, which is denoted with an "R".
History
The use of nodes and arrows, to construct directed graph models of cause and effect, dates back to
the invention of path analysis by Sewall Wright in 1918, long before System Dynamics. Due to the
limitations of genetic data, however, these early causal graphs contained no loops — they were
directed acyclic graphs. The first formal use of Causal Loop Diagrams was explained by Dr. Dennis
Meadows at a conference for educators (Systems Thinking & Dynamic Modeling Conference for K-12
Education in New Hampshire sponsored by Creative Learning Exchange).
Meadows explained that when he and others were working on the World3 model (circa 1970–72),
they realized they would not be able to use the computer output to explain how the feedback loops
worked in their model when presenting their results to others. They decided to show feedback loops
(without the stocks, flows and every variable), using arrows connecting the names of major model
components in the feedback loops. This may have been the first formal use of Causal Loop Diagrams.
Positive and negative causal links
Positive causal link means that the two nodes change in the same direction, i.e. if the node in which
the link starts decreases, the other node also decreases. Similarly, if the node in which the link starts
increases, the other node increases.
Negative causal link means that the two nodes change in opposite directions, i.e. if the node in
which the link starts increases, then the other node decreases, and vice versa.
Example
Dynamic causal loop diagram: positive and negative links
Systems Thinking Teacher’s Guide Session 1
Introduction
Date Developed: 2013 page 3 SMPSYSTH001 v2014 QCCI
Reinforcing and balancing loops
To determine if a causal loop is reinforcing or balancing, one can start with an assumption, e.g. "Node
1 increases" and follow the loop around. The loop is reinforcing if, after going around the loop, one
ends up with the same result as the initial assumption and balancing if the result contradicts the initial
assumption.
Or to put it in other words: Reinforcing loops have an even number of negative links (zero also is
even, see example above) balancing loops have an uneven number of negative links.
Identifying reinforcing and balancing loops is an important step for identifying Reference Behavior
Patterns, i.e. possible dynamic behaviors of the system.
Reinforcing loops are associated with exponential increases/decreases. Balancing loops are associated
with reaching a plateau. If the system has delays, often denoted by drawing a short line across the
causal link, the system might fluctuate.
Example
Causal loop diagram of Adoption model, used to demonstrate systems dynamics
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Introduction
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Causal loop diagram of a model examining the growth or decline of a life insurance company
Positive feedback
Alarm or panic can spread by positive feedback
among a herd of animals to cause a stampede.
Positive feedback is a process in which the effects of a small disturbance on a system include an
increase in the magnitude of the perturbation. That is, A produces more of B which in turn produces
more of A. In contrast, a system in which the results of a change act to reduce or counteract it has
negative feedback.
Causal loop diagram that depicts the causes of a
stampede as a positive feedback loop.
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Introduction
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In sociology a network effect can quickly create
the positive feedback of a bank run. The above
photo is of the UK Northern Rock 2007 bank
run. See also viral video.
Mathematically, positive feedback is defined as a positive loop gain around a feedback loop. That is,
positive feedback is in phase with the input, in the sense that it adds to make the input larger. Positive
feedback tends to cause system instability. When the loop gain is positive and above 1, there will
typically be exponential growth, increasing oscillations or divergences from equilibrium. System
parameters will typically accelerate towards extreme values, which may damage or destroy the
system, or may end with the system latched into a new stable state. Positive feedback may be
controlled by signals in the system being filtered, damped, or limited, or it can be cancelled or reduced
by adding negative feedback.
Positive feedback is used in digital electronics to force voltages away from intermediate voltages into
'0' and '1' states. On the other hand, thermal runaway is a positive feedback that can destroy
semiconductor junctions. Positive feedback in chemical reactions can increase the rate of reactions,
and in some cases can lead to explosions. Positive feedback in mechanical design causes tipping- point,
or 'over-centre', mechanisms to snap into position, for example in switches and locking pliers. Out of
control, it can cause bridges to collapse. Positive feedback in economic systems can cause boom-then-
bust cycles. If a PA system's microphone picks up sounds from its own loudspeakers, and these sounds
are re-amplified enough, the effect of this feedback can be loud squealing or howling noises from the
loudspeakers.
In feedback loops a chain of cause and effect exists where a state variable of a system has a feedback
loop influencing its own rate of change. Such feedback can be direct, or can be via other state
variables.
Such systems can give rich qualitative behaviors, but whether the feedback is positive or negative in
sign is an extremely important influence on the results. In positive feedback, the derivative of the
variable is positively affected by the variables value, and the opposite is true in negative feedback.
A key feature of positive feedback is thus that small disturbances get bigger. When a change occurs
in a system, positive feedback causes further change, in the same direction.
Negative feedback
Negative feedback occurs when the result of a process influences the operation of the process itself
in such a way as to reduce changes. Negative feedback tends to make a system self-regulating; it can
produce stability and reduce the effect of fluctuations. Negative feedback loops where just the right
amount of correction is applied in the most timely manner can be very stable, accurate, and
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Introduction
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responsive. Negative feedback is widely used in mechanical and electronic engineering, but it also
occurs naturally within living organisms, and can be seen in many other fields from chemistry and
economics to social behavior and the climate.
Simple feedback model. The
feedback is negative if AB < 0
In some systems controlled by a negative feedback loop, the level of some measured parameter is
compared to a reference value, and any difference triggers an action that reduces the gap between
the two levels. Negative feedback as a control technique in electronic systems was first introduced by
Harold S. Black at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1933.
Overview
In many physical and biological systems, qualitatively different influences can oppose each other. For
example, in biochemistry, one set of chemicals drives the system in a given direction, whereas another
set of chemicals drives it in an opposing direction. If one or both of these opposing influences are non-
linear, equilibrium point(s) result.
In biology, this process (generally biochemical) is often referred to as homeostasis; whereas in
mechanics, the more common term is equilibrium.
In engineering, mathematics and the physical and biological sciences, common terms for the points
around which the system gravitates include: attractors, stable states, eigenstates/eigenfunctions,
equilibrium points, and set points.
Negative refers to the sign of the multiplier in mathematical models for feedback. In delta notation,
−Δ output is added to or mixed into the input. In multivariate systems, vectors help to illustrate how
several influences can both partially complement and partially oppose each other.
In contrast, positive feedback is feedback in which
the system responds so as to increase the
magnitude of any particular perturbation,
resulting in amplification of the original signal
instead of stabilization. Any system where there is
positive feedback together with a gain greater
than one will result in a runaway situation. Both
positive and negative feedback require a feedback
loop to operate.
We are all part of the system!
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Introduction
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