Engineering Hydrology

CHAPTER THREE

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

4.1 Introduction
Water resource systems must be planned for future events for which no exact time of occurrence
can be forecasted. Hence, the hydrologist must give a statement of the probability of the stream
flow (or other hydrologic factors) will equal or exceed (or be less than) a specified value. These
probabilities are important to the economic and social evaluation of a project. In most cases
absolute control of the floods or droughts is impossible. Planning to control a flood of a specific
probability recognizes that a project will be overtaxed occasionally and damages will be
incurred. However, repair of the damages should be less costly in the long run than building
initially to protect against the worst possible event. The planning goal is not to eliminate all
floods but to reduce the frequency of flooding, and hence the resulting damages. If the socio-
economic analysis is to be correct, the probability of flooding must be eliminated accurately. For
major projects, the failure of which threatens human life, a more extreme event, the probable
maximum flood, has become the standard for designing. In this section techniques for defining
probability from a given set of data and with special methods employed for determining design
flood will be dealt.

Frequency analysis is the hydrologic term used to describe the probability of occurrence of a
particular hydrologic event (e.g. rainfall, flood, drought, etc). Therefore, basic knowledge about
probability (e.g. distribution functions) and the statistics (e.g. measure of location, measure of
spread, measure of skew ness, etc) is essential. Frequency analysis requires recorded hydrologic
data.

Hydrologic data are recorded either as a continuous record (e.g. water level or stage, rainfall, etc)
or in discrete series form (e.g. mean daily/monthly/annual flows or rainfall, annual series, partial
series, etc). For planning and design of water resources development projects, the important
parameters are river discharges and related questions on the frequency and duration of normal
flows (e.g. for hydropower production or water availability) and extreme flows (floods and
droughts).

4.2 Flood Frequency Analysis

Hydrologic processes such as floods are exceedingly complex natural events. They are resultants
of a number of component parameters & are therefore very difficult to model analytically.

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For example, the floods in a catchment depend upon

 Characteristics of a catchment
 Rainfall & antecedent condition
Each one of these factors in turn depends upon a host of constituent parameters. This makes the
estimation of the flood peak a very complex problem leading to many different approaches
i. Empirical formula
ii. UH methods (chapter 3)
iii. Statistical method of frequency analytic ( for point rainfall frequency
analysis)
iv. Frequency distribution function
Chow (1951) has shown that the most frequency distribution functions applicable in hydrologic
studies can be expressed by the following equation known as the general equation of hydrologic
frequency analysis.

X T  X  K K= frequency factor
σ = standard deviation of the variate

X = Mean of the variate
T= return period
X T = value of the variate for T
Some of the commonly used frequency distribution function for the predication of extreme flood
values is:
1. Gumbel’s Extreme value distribution
2. Log- Pearson type III distribution &
3. Log –normal distribution
Only the first two distributions are discussed in this chapter
Gumbel’s method
This extreme value distribution was introduced by Gumbel (1941) and is commonly known as
Gumbel’s distribution.
It is one of the most widely used probabilities –distribution function for extreme values in
hydrologic & meteorological studies for predication of flood peaks, maximum rainfalls,
maximum wind speed, etc.

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Gumbel defined a flood as the largest of the 365 daily flows and the annual series of flood flows
constitute a series of largest values of flows.
According to his theory of extreme events, the probability of occurrence of an event equal to or
larger than a value Xo is;
Y
P ( X  x o )  1  e  e ----------- (1)

In which Y is dimension less variable given by

Y   ( x  a)

a  x  0.45005 x

  1.2825/  x

1.2825( x  x)
Thus y=  0.577
x ------------ (2)
Where: 𝑥̅ mean
𝜎𝑥 = 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑥
In practice it is the value of X for a given P that is required and as such
y
P  1  e e
Yp   ln ln(1  P) , Noting T=1/P and

Designating YT= the value of Y, commonly called the reduced variate, for a given T

 T 
YT   ln . ln Or
 T  1

 T 
YT   0.834  2.303log log
 T  1
Now rearranging equation 2, the value of the variate x with return period T is
_
(YT  0.577)
X T  X  K x ------- (3) Where K 
1.2825
Equation 3 is of the same form as the general equation of hydrologic frequency analysis.
Gumbel’s equation for practical use

X T  X  K n1

Where  n 1 = standard deviation of the sample of size N

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K= frequency factor expressed as

∑(𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )2
𝜎𝑛−1 = √
𝑛−1

Y Y n
K T
Sn
 T 
YT   ln ln
 T  1 
  
Yn = reduced mean, Yn =f (N) for N   Yn  0.577

Sn= reduced standard deviation, f (N) N   , Sn  1.285

Confidence Limits
Since the value of the variate for a given return period, XT determined by Gumbel’s method can
have errors due to the limited sample data used; an estimate of the confidence limits of the
estimate is desirable. The confidence interval indicates the limits about the calculated value
between which the true value can be said to lie with a specific probability based on sampling
errors only.
For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval of the variate Xt is bounded by values X1
and X2 given by
X 1 / 2  X T  f (c ) S e
Where f(c) =function of the confidence probability c determined by using the table of normal
variates as
C in percent 50 68 80 90 95 99
f(c) 0.674 1.00 1.282 1.645 1.96 2.58
 n 1
S e  probable error  b
N

b  1  1.3K  1.1K 2

Y Y n
K=frequency factor= K  T
Sn

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 n 1
= Standard deviation of the sample N=sample size
It is seen that for a given sample and T,80% confidence limits are twice as large as the 50%
limits and 95% limits are thrice as large as 50% limits.

LOG-PEARSON TYPE III DISTRIBUTION

This distribution is extensively used in USA for projects sponsored by the US government. In
this the variate is first transformed into logarithmic form (base10) and the transformed data is
then analyzed. If
X is the variate of a random hydrologic series, then the series of Z variates where
Z=logX are first obtained. For this z series, for any recurrence interval T,

Z T  Z  K z Z

Where Kz=a frequency factor which is a function of recurrence interval T and the coefficient of
skew Cs, and σz = standard deviation of the Z variate sample

 Z  ( Z  Z ) 2 /( N  1)

N  ( Z  Z )3
Cs 
( N  1)( N  2)( Z )3
N=sample size
The variations of Kz=f (Cs, T) is given in table 4.6
After finding ZT the corresponding value of XT is obtained as:
XT=antilog (ZT)
Sometimes, the coefficient of skew Cs, is adjusted to account for the size of the sample by using
the following relation proposed by Hazen (1930),
1 + 8.5
𝐶̂𝑠 = 𝐶𝑠 ( )
𝑁

Risk, Reliability and Safety Factor

Risk and Reliability
The designer of a hydraulic structure always faces a nagging doubt about the risk of failure of his
structure. This is because the estimation of the hydrologic design values (such as the design flood
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discharge and the river stage during the design flood) involve a natural or inbuilt uncertainty and
as such a hydrological risk of failure. As an example, consider a weir with an expected life of 50
years and designed for a flood magnitude of return period T = 100 years. This weir may fail if a
flood magnitude greater than the design flood occurs within the life period (50 years) of the weir.
The probability of occurrence of an event (X > =XT) at least once over a period of n successive
years is called the risk
R= 1- (probability of non-occurrence of the event (X>=XT in n years)
𝑅̅ = 1 − (1 − 𝑃)𝑛 ,
1 𝑛 1
𝑅̅ = 1 − (1 − 𝑇) 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑃 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 𝑥𝑇 ) = 𝑇 , T= return period
1 𝑛
The reliability 𝑅𝑒 = 1 − 𝑅̅ = (1 − 𝑇)

It can be seen that the return period for which a structure should be designed depends upon the
accepted level of risk. In practice the accepted risk is governed by economic and policy
consideration.
Safety Factor
In addition to the hydrological uncertainty, as mentioned above, a water resource development
project will have many other uncertainties. These may arise out of structural, constructional,
operational and environmental causes as well as from non-technological considerations such as
economic, sociological and political causes. As such, any water resource development project
will have a safety factor for a given hydrological parameter M as defined below.
𝑆𝑎𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 (𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑀) = (𝑆𝐹)𝑚
𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑀 𝑎𝑑𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡
=
𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑀 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 ℎ𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦
𝐶𝑎𝑚
(𝑆𝐹)𝑚 =
𝐶ℎ𝑚
The parameter M includes such items as flood discharge magnitude, maximum river stage,
reservoir capacity and free board. The difference (𝐶𝑎𝑚 − 𝐶ℎ𝑚 ) is known as safety margin.

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Example 4.1: Flood frequency computations for the river A at a dam site, by using Gumbel’s
method, yielded the following results.
Return Period T (years) Peak Flood ( m3/s)
50 40809
100 46300
Estimate the flood magnitude in this river with a return period of 500 years.
Solution
𝑋𝑇 = 𝑥̅ + 𝐾𝑇 𝜎𝑛−1
𝑋100 = 𝑥̅ + 𝐾100 𝜎𝑛−1
𝑋50 = 𝑥̅ + 𝐾50 𝜎𝑛−1
𝑋100 − 𝑋50 = 𝐾100 𝜎𝑛−1 − 𝐾50 𝜎𝑛−1
𝑋100 − 𝑋50 = (𝐾100 − 𝐾50 )𝜎𝑛−1
46300 − 40809 = (𝐾100 − 𝐾50 )𝜎𝑛−1

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5491 = (𝐾100 − 𝐾50 )𝜎𝑛−1 … … … … … .∗

𝑌𝑇 −𝑌𝑛
But 𝐾𝑇 = , 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑌𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆𝑛 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠
𝑆𝑛

𝑌100 − 𝑌𝑛 𝑌50 − 𝑌𝑛
𝐾100 = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐾50 =
𝑆𝑛 𝑆𝑛
𝑌100 − 𝑌𝑛 𝑌50 − 𝑌𝑛 𝑌100 𝑌50
𝐾100 − 𝐾50 = ( )−( )= −
𝑆𝑛 𝑆𝑛 𝑆𝑛 𝑆𝑛
𝑌100 𝑌50
𝐾100 − 𝐾50 = − 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑡𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛 ∗ 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑆𝑛 𝑆𝑛
𝑌100 − 𝑌50
5491 = [ ] 𝜎𝑛−1 … … … … … … ∗∗
𝑆𝑛
𝑇 100
𝑌𝑇 = −𝑙𝑛 [𝑙𝑛 ] → 𝑌100 − 𝑙𝑛 [𝑙𝑛 ] = 4.60015
𝑇−1 99
50
𝑌50 − 𝑙𝑛 [𝑙𝑛 ] = 3.90194
49
𝜎𝑛−1
→ [𝑌 − 𝑌50 ] = 5491 … … … … … ∗∗
𝑆𝑛 100
𝜎𝑛−1 5491 5491
= =
𝑆𝑛 4.60015 − 3.90194 0.6982
𝜎𝑛−1
= 7864
𝑆𝑛
For T = 500 years
500
𝑌500 = −𝑙𝑛 [𝑙𝑛 ] = 6.21361
499
𝜎𝑛−1
(𝑌500 − 𝑌100 ) = 𝑋500 − 𝑋100
𝑆𝑛
(6.21361 − 4.60015)7864 = 𝑋500 − 46300
𝑋500 = 58988
𝑚3
𝑋500 ≅ 59000
𝑠
Example 4.2: A hydraulic structure on a stream has been designed for a discharge of 350m3/s. If
the available flood data on the stream is for 20 years and the mean and standard deviation for
annual flood series are 121 and 60m3/s respectively, calculate the return period for the design

flood by Gumbel’s method.

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Solution
𝑋𝑇 = 𝑋̅ + 𝐾𝑇 𝜎𝑛−1
350 = 121 + 𝐾𝑇 60
350 − 121
= 𝐾𝑇
60
𝐾𝑇 = 3.82
N=20 years data
̅̅̅
From the table given 𝑌 𝑛 = 0.5236 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆𝑛 = 1.0628

𝑌𝑇 − 𝑌̅𝑛
𝐾𝑇 =
𝑆𝑛
𝑌𝑇 − 0.5236
3.82 =
1.0628
𝑌𝑇 = 3.82(1.0628) + 0.5236 = 4.58
𝑌𝑇 ≅ 4.6
𝑇
𝑌𝑇 = −𝑙𝑛 [𝑙𝑛 ]
𝑇−1
𝑇
4.6 = −𝑙𝑛 [𝑙𝑛 ]
𝑇−1
𝑇
𝑙𝑛𝑙𝑛 = −4.6
𝑇−1
𝑇
ln( ) = 𝑒 −4.6
𝑇−1
𝑇
ln( ) = 0.010052
𝑇−1
𝑇
( ) = 𝑒 0.010052
𝑇−1
𝑇
( ) = 1.010102525
𝑇−1
𝑇−1
= 0.9899985151
𝑇
1
1 − = 0.9899985151
𝑇
1
= 0.0100014849
𝑇
𝑇 = 99.985 𝑇 ≅ 100 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠

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Example 4.3: Annual maximum recorded floods in a certain river, for the period 1951 to 1977 is
given below. Verify whether the Gumbel’s extreme-value distribution fit the recorded values.
Estimate the flood discharge with return period of 100 years and 150 years by graphical
extrapolation.
Solutions
The flood discharge values are arranged in descending order and the plotting position return
𝑁+1 28
period Tp for each discharge is obtained as 𝑇𝑃 = =
𝑚 𝑚

Where m = order number. The discharge magnitude Q can be plotted against the corresponding
Tp on a Gumbel extreme probability paper.
Max. Flood Max. Flood
Year Max. Flood (m3/s) Year Year
(m3/s) (m3/s)
1951 2947 1960 4798 1969 6599
1952 3521 1961 4290 1970 3700
1953 2399 1962 4652 1971 4175
1954 4124 1963 5050 1972 2988
1955 3496 1964 6900 1973 2709
1956 2947 1965 4366 1974 3873
1957 5060 1966 3380 1975 4593
1958 4903 1967 7826 1976 6761
1959 3757 1968 3320 1977 1971
The statistics X and σn-1 for the series are next calculated and are shown in table below.

Order Flood Order Flood

Tp Tp
number discharge number discharge
(years) (years)
m X (m3/s) m X (m3/s)

1.00 7826 28.00 15.00 3873 1.87

2.00 6900 14.00 16.00 3757 1.75
3.00 6761 9.33 17.00 3700 1.65
4.00 6599 7.00 18.00 3521 1.56
5.00 5060 5.60 19.00 3496 1.47
6.00 5050 4.67 20.00 3380 1.40
7.00 4903 4.00 21.00 3320 1.33
8.00 4798 3.50 22.00 2988 1.27
9.00 4652 3.11 23.00 2947 1.22
10.00 4593 2.80 24.00 2947 1.17
11.00 4366 2.55 25.00 2709 1.12
12.00 4290 2.33 26.00 2399 1.08
13.00 4175 2.15 27.00 1971 1.04
14.00 4124 2.00

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N=27years
𝑚3
𝑥̅ = 4263
𝑠
𝑚3
𝜎𝑛−1 = 1432.6
𝑠
Using these discharges XT for some chosen return interval is calculated by using Gumbel’s

formulae. From Tables, for N=27, Yn=0.5332 and Sn=1.1004

10 2.2503−0.5332
Choosing T=10 years, 𝑌𝑇 = − ln [𝑙𝑛 ] = 2.2503 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐾 = = 1.56 𝑎𝑛𝑑
9 1.1004

𝑚3
𝑋𝑇 = 4263 + 1.56 ∗ 1432.6 = 6499
𝑠
Similarly, values of XT are calculated for two more T values as shown below

T (years) YT K XT (m3/s)

5 1.50 0.88 5522

10 2.25 1.56 6499
20 2.97 2.21 7436

When these values are plotted on Gumbel probability paper, it is seen that these points lie on a

straight line according to the property of the Gumbel’s extreme probability paper. Then by

extrapolation of the theoretical XT vs T relationship, from this plot at T = 100years, XT =

9600m3/s and at T = 150 years, XT = 10700m3/s. [By using equation X100 = 9558m3/s and X150
= 10188m3/s.]

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Example 4.4: Data covering a period of 92 years for a certain river yielded the mean and
standard deviation of the annual flood series as 6437 and 2951 m3/s respectively. Using

Gumbel’s method, estimate the flood discharge with a return period of 500 years.

What are the (a) 95% and (b) 80% confidence limits for this estimate?
Solution: From table N = 92 years, Yn = 0.5589, and Sn = 1.2020. Then
500
𝑌500 = −𝑙𝑛 [𝑙𝑛 ] = 6.21361
500 − 1
6.21361 − 0.5589
𝐾500 = = 4.7044
1.2020
𝑚3
𝑋500 = 6437 + (4.7044 ∗ 2951) = 20320
𝑠
𝑏 = √1 + 1.3𝐾 + 1.1𝐾 2 = √1 + (1.3 ∗ 4.7044) + (1.1 ∗ 4.70442 ) = 5.61
𝜎𝑛−1 2951
𝑆𝑒 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = 𝑏 = 5.61 ∗ = 1726
√𝑁 √92
(a) For 95% confidence probability f(c) = 1.96 from the table and 𝑋1⁄ = 𝑋𝑇 ± 𝑓(𝑐)𝑆𝑒
2

𝑋1⁄ = 20320 ± 1.96 ∗ 1726

2

𝑚3 𝑚3
X1 = 23703 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑋2 = 16937
𝑠 𝑠

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Thus estimated discharge of 20320m3/s has 95% probability of lying between 23700m3/s and
16940m3/s.
(b) For 80% confidence probability f(c) = 1.282 from the table and 𝑋1⁄ = 𝑋𝑇 ± 𝑓(𝑐)𝑆𝑒
2

𝑋1⁄ = 20320 ± 1.282 ∗ 1726

2

𝑚3 𝑚3
X1 = 22533 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑋2 = 18107
𝑠 𝑠
The estimated discharge of 20320m3/s has 80% probability of lying between 22530m3/s and
18110m3/s.
Example 4.5: For the annual flood series data given in example 4:6, estimate the flood discharge
for a return period of (a) 100 years (b) 200 years and (c) 1000 years by using Log Pearson type
III distribution.
Solution: The variate z = log X is first calculated for all the discharges in table below. Then the
statistics Z, σz and Cs are calculated from Table below
σ𝑧 = 0.1427𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑧̅ = 3.6071
𝑁 ∑(𝑧 − 𝑧̅)3 27 ∗ 0.0030
c𝑠 = 3
= c𝑠 = = 0.043
(𝑁 − 1)(𝑁 − 2)(𝜎𝑧 ) (26)(25)(0.1427)3
The flood discharge for a given T is calculated as below. Here, value of KZ for given T and Cs
=0.043 are read from Table above.

Z=logX Z=logX Z=logX

Max. Flood Max. Flood Max. Flood
Year (m3/s) Year (m3/s) Year (m3/s)
1951 2947 3.4694 1960 4798 3.6811 1969 6599 3.8195
1952 3521 3.5467 1961 4290 3.6325 1970 3700 3.5682
1953 2399 3.3800 1962 4652 3.6676 1971 4175 3.6207
1954 4124 3.6153 1963 5050 3.7033 1972 2988 3.4754
1955 3496 3.6153 1964 6900 3.7033 1973 2709 3.4328
1956 2947 3.5436 1965 4366 3.8388 1974 3873 3.5880
1957 5060 3.4694 1966 3380 3.6401 1975 4593 3.6621
1958 4903 3.7042 1967 7826 3.5289 1976 6761 3.8300
1959 3757 3.6905 1968 3320 3.8935 1977 1971 3.2947
𝑍̅ = 3.6071 𝜎𝑧 = 0.1427 𝐶𝑠 = 0.043

Lecture Note Page 13

 Engineering Hydrology

𝑿𝑻
KZ KZ *σz 𝑍𝑇 = 𝑍̅ + 𝐾𝑍 𝜎𝑍 = 𝒂𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒍𝒐𝒈 𝒁𝑻
T
(from Table)
(years) 𝒎𝟑
(for Cs = 0.043)
( )
𝒔
100 2.358 0.3365 3.9436 8782
200 2.616 0.3733 3.9804 9559
1000 3.152 0.4498 4.0569 11400

Example 4.6A Bridge has an expected life of 25 years and is designed for a flood magnitude of
return period 100 years.
(a) What is the risk of this hydrologic design?
(b) If a 10% risk is acceptable, what return period will have to be adopted?
Solution:
1 𝑛
(a) The risk 𝑅̅ = 1 − (1 − 𝑇) 𝐻𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑛 = 25 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 = 100 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠,

1 25
𝑅̅ = 1 − (1 − ) = 0.222 𝐻𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑏𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑡 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑖𝑠 22.2%
100
(b) If 𝑅̅ = 10% = 0.10,
1 25 1 25
0.1 = 1 − (1 − ) = 1 − 0.1 = (1 − ) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 = 238 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = 𝑠𝑎𝑦 240 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
𝑇 𝑇
Hence to get 10% acceptable risk, the bridge will have to be designed for a flood of return period
T=240 years.

Example 4.7: Analysis of annual flood series of a river yielded a sample mean of 1000m3/s and
standard deviation of 500m3/s. Estimate the design flood of a structure on this river to provide
90% assurance that the structure will not fail in the next 50 years. Use Gumbel’s method and
assume the sample size to be very large.
Solution:
𝑚 3 𝑚 3
𝑋̅ = 1000 𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎𝑛−1 = 500 𝑠

1 50
𝑅𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑅𝑒 = 0.9 = (1 − )
𝑇
1 1
1 − = (0.90)50 = 0.997895
𝑇

Lecture Note Page 14

 Engineering Hydrology

1
1 − 0.997895 = = 0.002105
𝑇
1
𝑇= = 475 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
0.002105
𝑋𝑇 = 𝑋̅ + 𝐾𝜎𝑛−1
475
Also, 𝑌𝑇 = − [𝑙𝑛 ∗ 𝑙𝑛 475−1] = 6.16226
6.16226 − 0.577
𝐾= = 4.355
1.2825
𝑋𝑇 = 1000 + (4.355 ∗ 500)
𝑚3
𝑋𝑇 = 3177
𝑠
Example 4.8 Annual flood data of the river A covering the period 1948 to 1979 yielded for the
annual flood discharges a mean of 29600m3/s and a standard deviation of 14,860m3/s. For a
proposed bridge on this river near this site it is decided to have an acceptable risk of 10% in its
expected of life of 50 years.

(a) Estimate the flood discharge by Gumbel’s method for use in the design of this structure

(b) If the actual flood value adopted in the design is 125000m3/s what are the safety factor
and safety margin relating to maximum to maximum discharge?
Solution: 𝑅̅ = 0.1 and life period of the structure n = 50 years
1 50
Hence 𝑅̅ = 0.10 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇)
1 1
(1 − ) = (1 − 0.1)50 = 0.997895, 𝑇 = 475 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
𝑇
Gumbel’s method is now used to estimate the flood magnitude for this return period of T = 475

years.
Record length N = 1948 to 1979 = 32 years
From the table Yn = 0.5380 and Sn = 1.1193
475
𝑌𝑇 = −𝑙𝑛 [𝑙𝑛 ] = 6.16226
475 − 1
𝑌𝑇 − 𝑌𝑛 6.16226 − 0.5380
𝐾= = = 5.0248
𝑆𝑛 1.1193
𝑋𝑇 = 𝑋̅ + 𝐾𝜎𝑛−1

Lecture Note Page 15

 Engineering Hydrology

𝑚3
𝑋𝑇 = 29600 + (5.0248 ∗ 14860) = 104268
𝑠
Say XT =105000m3/s =hydrological design flood magnitude
Actual flood magnitude adopted in the project is = 125000m3/s
125000
Safety factor = (SF) flood =105000 = 1.19

Safety margin for flood magnitude = 125000 – 105000 = 20000m3/s

Lecture Note Page 16