Pr (X ≤x) =F (x) = 1 2πσ 1 2πσ: Φ (z) = e dt
Pr (X ≤x) =F (x) = 1 2πσ 1 2πσ: Φ (z) = e dt
z t2
1 −
Φ( z )= ∫ e 2 dt
√2 π −∞ ……………………………………………………………………(3.2.6)
which is the distribution function of the normal distribution with mean = 0 and
variance = 1 and has been tabulated (see mathematical tables).
Infact, if we set
w−μ dt 1
t= = ⇒ dw = σ dt
σ , then dw σ , and we have to integrate from
x−μ
−∞ to z=
σ .
From this important formula and Eq. (3.2.5) we obtain another important formula
X−μ
Z=
Let σ
We say
−z 2
1 2
f (z ) = e
√2 π
X −μ E( X )−E( μ)
E( Z ) = E
[ ]
σ
=
σ
But E( X )=μ
μ−μ
∴ E(Z ) = =0
σ
Page 2 of 8
2 2
Var ( Z ) = E ( Z )−[ E( Z ) ]
= E( Z2 ) Since E( Z )=0
But
X−μ X −μ
E [ Z 2 ] =E [( ) ( )]
σ
⋅
σ
1 1
= 2
E [( X−μ )2 ] = 2 [ E ( X 2 −2 Xμ+ μ2 )]
σ σ
1
= 2
[ E( X 2 )−E (2 Xμ)+ E( μ2 )]
σ
1 2 2 1
= 2 [ E( X )−2 μE( X )+ μ ] = 2 [
E( X 2 )−2 μ2 + μ2 ]
σ σ
1 2 2 1 2 2
=
σ2
[ E( X )−μ ] =
σ2
[ E( X )− [ E ( X ) ] ]
1
= 2
⋅σ 2 =1
σ
∴ Var ( Z ) = 1
i. e . Z ~ N (0, 1)
Example 3.2.3
Determine the probabilities
(a) Pr ( X ≤2. 44 ) , (b) Pr ( X ≤−1 .16 ) , (c) Pr ( X ≥1)
(d) Pr (2≤ X≤10 ) where X is assumed to be normal with mean 0 and variance 1.
Solution
2
Since μ=0 and σ =1 , we may obtain the desired values directly from the
mathematical tables;
Page 3 of 8
(a) 0.9927, (b) 0.1230, (c) Pr ( X ≥1)=1−Pr ( X< 1)=1−0 .8413=0 . 1587
(d) Pr ( 2≤ X≤10 )=Φ ( 10)−Φ(2)=1−0 . 9772=0 . 0228
Example 3.2.4
Let X be normal with mean 0 and variance 1. Determine the constant c such that:
(a) Pr ( X ≥c )=10 % , (b) Pr ( X ≤c )=5 % , (c) Pr (0≤X ≤c )=45 %
(d) Pr (−c≤ X≤c )=99 %
Solution
(b)
c−0
Pr ( X ≤c )=Φ ( )
1
=0. 05
(c)
c−0 0−0
Pr (0≤X ≤c )=Φ ( ) ( )
1
−Φ
1
=Φ(c )−Φ(0 )=0 . 45
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(d)
Example 3.2.5
Let X be normal with mean = -2 and variance = 0.25. Determine the constant c such that:
(a) Pr ( X ≥c )=0 .2 , (b) Pr (−c≤ X≤−1 )=0 .5 ,
(c) Pr (−2−c≤X≤−2+ c )=0. 9 (d) Pr (−2−c≤X≤−2+ c )=99. 6 %
Solution
(b)
−c +2 −c +2 −c+2
⇒Φ (2) − Φ (0 .5 )
=0 . 5 ⇒ 0 . 9772−Φ
0.5 (
= 0.5 ⇒ Φ)0.5 (
=0.9772−0 .5 )
⇒Φ (−c+2
0.5 )=0. 4772 ⇒
−c +2
0 .5
=Φ −1
( 0. 4772 )= −Φ−1 (1−0 . 4772)=−Φ−1 (0. 5228 )
−c +2
⇒ = −0 . 057 ⇒ c=2 . 0285
0.5
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(c)
⇒ c=0.823
(d)
⇒ c=1.439
Example 3.2.6
An industrial process mass produces items which are normally distributed. 11.55% of
them weigh over 20 kg and 5.89% weigh under 10 kg. Calculate the mean weight and
standard deviation for this distribution.
Solution
(a)
20−μ
Pr (X>20)=1−Pr( X≤20)=1−Φ ( )
σ
=0.1155
20−μ 20−μ −1
⇒Φ ( )
σ
=1−0.1155=0.8845 ⇒
σ
=Φ (0.8845)=1.2
⇒ 20−μ=1.2σ
⇒ μ+1.2σ =20......................................................................................................(i)
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10−μ
Pr (X<10)=Φ ( )
σ
=0.0589
10−μ −1 10−μ
⇒ =Φ ( 0.0589) ⇒ = −Φ−1(1−0.0589)=−Φ−1(0.9411)=−1.56
σ σ
⇒ 10−μ= −1.56σ
⇒ μ−1.56σ =10....................................................................................................(ii)
Solving equations (i) and (ii) simultaneously, we get
μ=15 . 652 and σ=3. 623
EXERCISE
1. Let X be normal with mean = 80 and variance = 9. Find:
(a) Pr ( X >83) [0.1587] (b) Pr ( X <81) [0.6306]
(c) Pr ( X <80) [0.5] (c) Pr ( 78≤X <82 ) [0.4950]
2. Let X be normal with mean = 14 and variance = 4. Determine the constant c such
that:
(a) Pr ( X ≤c )=95 % [17.29] (b) Pr ( X ≤c )=5 % [-17.29]
Page 7 of 8
(ii) A sample of N = 600 bolts from another factory is also checked. If for this
sample we find n1 = 20 and n2 = 15, find estimates for the mean and
standard deviation of the lengths of these bolts.[ μ = 3.001, σ = 0.01]
7. In a photographic process, the developing time of prints may be looked upon as
a random variable having the normal distribution with μ=15 . 40 seconds and
σ =0 . 48 second. Find the probabilities that the time it takes to develop one of
the prints will be:
(a) At least 16.00 seconds; [0.0668]
(b) At most 14.20 seconds; [0.0062]
(c) Anywhere from 15.00 to 15.80 seconds. [0.5934]
9. If the probability is 0.20 that a certain bank will refuse a loan application, use the
normal approximation to determine (to three decimals) the probability that the
bank will refuse at most 40 of 225 loan applications. [0.227]
10. Show that if X is a random variable having the Poisson distribution with the
parameter λ and λ→∞ , then the moment – generating function of
X−λ
Z=
√λ
that is, that of a standardized Poisson random variable, approaches the
moment – generating function of the standard normal distribution.
11. How many workers have a salary between $ 4000 and $ 6500, if the arithmetic
mean is $ 5000, standard deviation is $ 1000 and number of workers is 15,000, if
the salary of the worker is assumed to follow a normal distribution? [11618]
12. The average daily sales of 500 branch offices was $ 150 thousand and the
standard deviation $ 15 thousand. Assuming the distribution to be normal,
indicate how many branches have sales between:
(a) $ 120 thousand and $ 145 thousand [174]
(b) $ 140 thousand and $ 165 thousand. [295]
13. As a result of tests on 20, 000 electric fans manufactured by a company, it was
found that lifetime of the fans was normally distributed with an average life of
2040 hours and standard deviation of 60 hours. On the basis of the information,
estimate the number of fans that is expected to run for:
(a) More than 2150 hours and [672]
(b) Less than 1960 hours. [1836]
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