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I. Learning Activities: Sum of Weights (3+2+1) 6

This document provides examples of quantitative forecasting methods and assigns forecasting problems using data sets. It first demonstrates four types of moving averages - four month, three month weighted, four period weighted, and three period weighted - to forecast demand based on historical data. The assignment section provides data and asks to forecast using various methods including naive, three period moving average, three period weighted moving average, four period moving average, four period weighted moving average, three year weighted moving average, and linear trend forecasting. Equations for linear trend lines are developed and used to forecast out two periods.

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Valdez Alyssa
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
142 views6 pages

I. Learning Activities: Sum of Weights (3+2+1) 6

This document provides examples of quantitative forecasting methods and assigns forecasting problems using data sets. It first demonstrates four types of moving averages - four month, three month weighted, four period weighted, and three period weighted - to forecast demand based on historical data. The assignment section provides data and asks to forecast using various methods including naive, three period moving average, three period weighted moving average, four period moving average, four period weighted moving average, three year weighted moving average, and linear trend forecasting. Equations for linear trend lines are developed and used to forecast out two periods.

Uploaded by

Valdez Alyssa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 6

I.

LEARNING ACTIVITIES

1. Complete the tables above.( 4-month moving average, 3-month weighted moving
average, 4 period weighted moving average)

Four-month moving average


Period Actual Demand Forecast
January 21
February 25
March 29
April 21
May 25 (21+25+29+21) = 24
4
June 20 (25+29+21+ 25) = 25
4
July 18 (20+25+21+29)/4=23.75
August 21 (18+20+25+21)/4= 21
Septembe 20 (22+18+20+25)/4= 21.25
r
October 19 (20+21+18+20)/4= 19.75
November 18 (19+20+21+18)/4=19.5
December 15 (18+19+30+21)/4=22

Three-month period weighted moving average


Period Actual Demand Forecast Sum of
January 21 weights
( 3+2+1) = 6
February 25
March 29
April 21 ((29x3)+(25x 2)+(21x 1))= 26
6
May 25 ((21x3) +(29x2) +(25x1))= 24
6
June 20 ((25x 3)+(21x2)+ (29x1)) = 24
6
July 18 ((20×3)+(25×2)+(22×1))/6= 22
August 21 ((18×3)+(20×2)+(25×1))/6=19.83
September 20 ((21×3)+(18×2)+(20×1))/6=19.83
October 19 ((20×3)+(21×2)+(18×1)/6=20
November 18 ((19×3)+(20×2)+(22×1)/6=19.83
December 15 ((18×3)+(19×2)+(20×1)/6= 18.67

Four-Period Weighted Moving Average


Deman Supply Forecast
d
1 35
2 50
3 65
4 55
5 70 (55x4) + (65x3) + (50x2) +( 35x 1) = 55
10
6 75 (70×4)+(55×3)+(65×2)+(50×1)/10=62.5

II. ASSIGNMENT

1. Use quantitative forecast methods for the data shown below:


Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Observatio 24 34 36 37 41 44 45
n

Compute For:
a. Naïve Method

Forecast Observation Perio


d
24 1
24 34 2
34 36 3
36 37 4
37 41 5
41 44 6
44 45 7
b. Three-period Perio Observation Forecast Moving Average
d
1 24
2 34
3 36
4 37 (24+34+36)/3= 31.33
5 41 (34+36+37)/3= 35.67
6 44 (36+37+41)/3= 38
7 45 (37+41+44)/3= 40.67
C. Three- period Weighted Moving Average

Perio Observation Forecast


d
1 24
2 34
3 36
4 37 (36×3)+(34×2)+(24×1)/6= 33.33
5 41 (37×3)+(36×2)+(34×1)/6= 36.17
6 44 (42×3)+(37×2)+(36×1)/6= 38.88
7 45 (44×3)+(42÷2)+(36×1)/6= 41.83

d. Four-period Moving Average

Perio Observation Forecast


d
1 24
2 34
3 36
4 37
5 41 (24+34+36+37)/4= 33.75
6 44 (34+36+37+41)/4= 37
7 45 (36+37+41+44)/4= 39.5
e. Four-period Weighted Moving
Average

Period Observation Forecast


1 24
2 34
3 36
4 37
5 41 (37×4)+(36×3)+(34×2)+(24×1)/10= 34.8
6 44 (41×4)+(37×3)+(36×2)+34×1)/10= 38.1
7 45 (44×4)+(42÷3)+(36×2)+(46×1)/10= 40.9
2. Suppose that the University had the following data of its growth of enrollment from 2006
– 20014.
Year Enrollment
2006 3000
2007 3200
2008 3600
2009 3650
2010 4000
2011 4200
2012 4300
2013 4410
2014 4520

a. Forecast the 2015 enrollment using three-year weighted moving average forecast.

Year Enrollment
200 3000
6
200 3200
7
200 3600
8
200 3650
9
201 4000
0
201 4200
1
201 4300
2
201 4410
3
201 4520
4
201 (4520×3)+(4410×2)+(4300×1)/6= 4446.67
5

b. Using smooth α= 0.30, forecast the 2015 enrollment.

Ft= 4,410 + 0.30(4,520-4,410)


= 4,410+ 33
= 4,443
c. Use four-year weighted moving average from 2010 t0 2015
Year Enrollment Forecast
200 3000
6
200 3200
7
200 3600
8
200 3650
9
201 4000
0
201 4200
1
201 4300
2
201 4410
3
201 4520 (4410×4)+(43000×3)+(4300×2)+(4000×1)/10=
4 4294
201 (4520×4)+(4410×3)+(4300×2)+(4200×1)/10= 4411
5

3. The Javill Department Store has been an authorized dealer for flat TV for the past 5
years. The number of flat TV sold each year is shown in the table.

Year No. Flat TV Sold


1 40
2 25
3 35
4 39
5 43

a. Develop an equation for the linear trend component of the time series.
Year t No. Flat TV t² tY
Sold
1 1 40 1 40
2 2 25 4 50
3 3 35 9 105
4 4 39 16 156
5 5 43 25 215
b =
t=15 Y= 182 Σt²=55 ΣtY=566 nŦ2
b= 566- 5(3)(36.4)/ 55- 5(3)²
b= 556-546/ 55- 45
b= 20/10
b=2

a = Ȳ - bŦ
a= 36.4- 2(3)
a= 36.4- 6
a= 30.4

b. Use the developed trend equation from (b) to prepare for the sales in Year 6 and
year 7.

Yt = a + bt
Yt = 30.4 + 2t
Y6 = 30.4 + 2 (6)
Y6= 42.4

Yt = a + bt
Yt = 30.4 + 2t
Y7= 30.4+ 2 (7)
Y7= 44.4

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