Transport Energy Infrastructure

Roadmap to 2050
MAIN REPORT
Prepared for the LowCVP by Element Energy Ltd
Celine Cluzel & Alastair Hope–Morley

JUNE 2015
Transport Energy Infrastructure
Roadmap to 2050

MAIN REPORT

JUNE 2015

LowCVP Project Manager Project Steering Group

Jonathan Murray, Autogas Limited
Policy and Operations Director BEAMA
BOC Limited
Contractor Calor Gas Ltd
Prepared by Element Energy Ltd EDF Energy
Electricity Networks Association
Authors National Grid
Celine Cluzel Office for Low Emission Vehicles
Alastair Hope-Morley Renewable Energy Association
Transport for London
Reviewers Transport Scotland
UK Petroleum Association
Alex Stewart

Disclaimer
While the authors consider that the data and opinions contained in this report are sound, all parties
must rely upon their own skill and judgement when using it. The authors do not make any
representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the report.
Contents

Background and objectives

Approach

Transport Infrastructure Roadmaps

Conclusions

3
 Background - a ‘Transport Infrastructure roadmap’ is needed to
complement existing vehicle and fuel roadmaps
 In the context of the expected transition to lower carbon powertrains Vehicle roadmaps
and fuels, the Auto Council vehicle roadmaps have proven to be a
useful tool to focus research, funding and policy, bringing into one
place the industry’s views on future technology options, deployment
steps and corresponding policy drivers.
 To complement these powertrain technologies roadmaps, the
LowCVP commissioned a Road Transport Fuels Roadmap in 2013-14,
which also proved successful in bringing clarity to the fuel options
available and mapping the enabling milestones.
 This Infrastructure roadmap is the ‘missing piece’ that will support
new powertrains and new fuels. This roadmap is all the more
Source: Auto Council and LowCVP
necessary as the needs and barriers for deployment of electric,
hydrogen and gas refuelling stations differ significantly and Transport fuel roadmaps
refuelling/recharging infrastructure is a key enabler for low emission
vehicles.
 The objectives of the Infrastructure Roadmap are to:
− Assess the infrastructure needs and barriers for deployment of
electric, hydrogen and gas refuelling stations to 2050, including
impact on upstream distribution, as well as to consider
‘conventional’ liquid fuels
− Make recommendations for delivery of infrastructure
deployment, both at national and local government level. Source: Auto Council and Element Energy for the LowCVP

Source: Element Energy 4

The Infrastructure Roadmap covers private and public infrastructure,
for all main road vehicles and both current and future fuels
Fuels / energy vectors considered Vehicle types
 Zero tailpipe emission fuels: electricity and hydrogen
 ‘Conventional’ liquid fuels: gasoline (E5 to E20, in line with
the Transport Fuels Roadmap), diesel, LPG/bio-propane
 Methane: Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Liquefied NG (LNG)
and biomethane
 Niche/future fuels: methanol, liquid air and a high bioethanol
blend (E85)

Refuelling infrastructure types

 Depot based refuelling for fleet operators and return to base
operators
 Home recharging for private and (some) commercial vehicles
 Public forecourt refuelling/recharging

Drivers for change in the transport energy system

 The UK’s legally binding target to reduce total GHG emissions by at least 80% (relative to 1990 levels) by 2050,
and transport contributes to c. 25% of UK total GHG emissions;
 EU level regulations (gCO2/km, Air Quality targets and EURO spec), Directives (Renewable Energy, Fuel Quality,
Clean Power for Transport) and Transport White Paper

Source: Element Energy 5

Contents

Background and objectives

Approach

Transport Infrastructure Roadmaps

Conclusions

6
The development of the Infrastructure Roadmap benefitted from input
from a wide range of stakeholders, many consulted through workshops
Develop uptake scenarios ICE vehicles: diesel, petrol, LPG, gas vehicles
for % sales of electric and Electric vehicles: Battery (BEV), Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV),
ICE vehicles Range-Extended (RE-EV) and hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV)
Niche/future fuels considered: E85, methanol, liquid air

Input into Element Energy Scrappage rate, stock and mileage inputs based on DfT data/projections: c. 40% increase in stock and
fleet model vkt by 2050 (39 million vehicles, 740 billion vkt); Vehicle efficiency based on Committee on Climate
Change modelling

Output numbers of See full reports for Review existing literature

vehicles in the fleet and further details of fuel on refuelling and
MJ used per energy vector uptake scenarios upstream infrastructure

Industry consultation Prepare Infrastructure Four dedicated fuel workshops were conducted
with LowCVP Fuels Roadmap  Workshop themes: electricity, liquid fuels, methane, hydrogen
working group  38 attendees included: Infrastructure manufacturers, installers,
operators, DNOs, energy companies, fuel suppliers, OEM / vehicle
Host stakeholder suppliers, end users, local government / regulator
workshops

Review by Steering Prepare draft report

Committee

Report preparation
Complete final report External input

Source: Element Energy

vkt: vehicle km travelled
7
The future fuel demand and associated infrastructure needs are based on
ambitious vehicle uptake scenarios in line with the UK GHG reduction targets

Proposed policy-led uptake scenarios – focus on alternative fuels

 The scenarios are not intended to cover all possible outcomes but instead focus on cases with ambitious uptake of
alternative fuels in line with targets set by the Carbon Plan
 They represent possible futures where low and ultra low emission powertrains are successfully deployed, and are
illustrative rather than based on detailed modelling of technology costs and customer decision making behaviour
 In accordance with the LowCVP Fuels Roadmap, blends higher than B7 are not considered for the mainstream fuels
and E20 is considered only from the 2030s

New car/van EV sale scenarios: New bus sales scenario: New truck sales scenario:
Moderate ambition 100% 100% 5% 10%
60% 4% 2% 2% 1% 5% 1%
CCC targets 5% 15% 20%
10% 15%
30%
15% 5% 10%
3% 9% 50%
20%
10% 25%
2015 2020 2030 2050 92% 94%
80% 79% 40%
100% 60% 40% 45%

10% 10% 20%

1%
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
2015 2020 2030 2050 2050
BEV FCEV (Bio)methane FCEV Diesel, includes hybrid
PH/RE EV Moderate CCC BEV Diesel, includes hybrid BEV Diesel dual fuel (LPG)
FCEV ambition targets Methane

Source: Element Energy in consultation with LowCVP Fuels Working Group. Refer to the full reports (issued separately) for
more detail. ‘Diesel’ refers to a blend of B7 and drop-in renewable diesel, as per the Fuel Roadmap
8
Four different roadmaps have been developed to best capture the
diverse challenges of each type of energy vector

 The roadmaps and associated recommendations are presented next for each energy vector:

Sections for each fuel

are indicated by a
specific tag:

 A structured approach was adopted to assess the background and status quo for each fuel identifying current
supply pathways and trends, geographic distribution and key stakeholders
 This enabled identification of future infrastructure requirements and barriers to deployment supported by
quantification of projected fuel demand and stations numbers
 The focus of the roadmap is on the barriers to infrastructure rollout, the wider barriers to adoption of
alternative fuelled vehicles (such as cost premium, supply etc.) are not investigated here
 The cost estimates also focus on the refuelling/recharging infrastructure (capital costs) and exclude costs such
as new fuel production units, potential vehicle subsidies and costs to set up new distribution systems

 This report contains only the key findings, the extensive analysis supporting them is issued separately, in four
distinct reports (electricity, methane, liquid fuels, hydrogen)

Source: Element Energy 9

Contents

Background and objectives

Approach

Transport Infrastructure Roadmaps

Conclusions

10
 The existing electricity network, exploited with smart technologies, is
well suited to support the electrification of transport
 Electricity transmission and distribution systems already in place, for other purposes than transport,
and electricity is in process of being decarbonised (-80% and -50% gCO2/kWh by 2035 compared to
2013 in ‘No progression’ and ‘Slow progression’ projections from National Grid)
 Additional transport demand will present a peak demand (GW) challenge rather than a production
(TWh) challenge: without charging management, EVs could add 28 GW of demand (c.+50% of
current peak demand). However, EVs are only one contributor to the future peak demand, among
other technologies earmarked as part of the UK decarbonisation plan (notably heat pumps)
 The main demand for electricity will be from cars, which require both residential charge points and
a national public network

Electricity demand
TWh/year

317
Total UK demand
Transport demand
84%

51

2013 2050

The quoted diversified peak power is based on currently observed diversity factors (for which data is limited) and assumes to no
demand management is in place, i.e. this is an upper bound peak power requirement - based on scenarios presented p. 9
11
Millions of charge points (mostly residential) will be needed to support
widespread EV deployment, with uncertainty over charging technologies
Infrastructure roadmap 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
Visible and Full national c. 10 charge Dependant on
Total sites Many accessible
c. 500
coverage
c.1,100
points per site
c.2,200
BEV/ PHEV split
sites but
Public variable network to all £130- £300- and charging rates
Cost £20-40m 230m 530m
network offer drivers
Rollout of primarily conductive rapid (40+kW) charging points in short term
Technology
Charging Future type and rates will depend on technology developments
infra- 3-7 kW off-street Solutions to provide certainty of 4-7 10-15
Residential Cars/vans 300-370k
million million
structure or shared on-street access to homes w/o off-street parking
network 100-
Cars/vans 3/7/22 kW 8-10k
200k
400 -550k
Depot / 4-5k 20-25k
>40 kW CP (plug and wireless)
workplaces Buses and
installed with concurrent trials of Potential rollout of alternative power delivery systems e.g.
HGVs alternative power delivery systems dynamic charging on highways, battery swap or overhead cables

Legend Investment in electricity EV related DSR

commercial Introduce smart systems alongside Up to c. £20bn for transmission
networks
conventional network upgrades and £30-45bn for distribution*
(transmission & distribution) arrangements
– cumulative from 2015 formalised *To handle decarbonisation of the grid and uptake of EVs, heat
pumps and distributed generation such as PV panels

Plug-in electric vehicles stock Thousand vehicles 2020 2025 2030 2050
1,500- 4,000- 20,000-
Projections are based on policy- Cars 300
2,500 8,000 25,000
led uptake scenarios presented
250- 700- 3,400-
on page 9 Vans 60
400 1,300 4,000
Data supported quantification of HDVs <5 10 20 130
infrastructure requirements
Dashed lines represent Major milestone Cost estimates are cumulative costs from 2015
high uncertainty /enabler CP = Charge point
12
A visible, accessible and reliable public charging network should be
rolled out for light vehicles
1 End user experience of public charge points 2 Economics of public charge points
 Current public infrastructure is fragmented with several  The business case for public charge points
operators offering various access conditions and remains challenging
variable reported reliability Recommendations
 Beyond the number of charge points, a network should Central gov.: Continue funding program and monitor
meet some criteria to be useful to EV drivers: progress, embed end user experience criteria in
− Well marketed to drivers (e.g. clear signs, uniform support programs
signage across the country)
Local Authorities: support programs where local
− Easy to operate (e.g. multi socket connections, simple fleets can provide a base load to charge points that
payment system, etc.) can also be accessible to the general public; facilitate
− Immediately accessible (e.g. PAYG, dynamic booking exchange between relevant stakeholders (DNOs, end
systems, live status information) user, charge point operators) to help optimum siting;
Recommendations share best practise findings with other LAs

R&D / industry / LAs: Improve and build on existing On-going trial programs: Share key learnings
network and develop a national platform compatible with relevant to business case and end user experience
multiple vehicle types to remotely communicate with (e.g. current Rapid Charging Network project)
public infrastructure (e.g. dynamic booking, simple Industry: DNOs could communicate areas of
payment systems, availability notification) and consider adequate network capacity to infrastructure
joining cross platform projects (e.g. EMi3); embed criteria in developers to avoid high connection costs
relevant funding programs

Source: Element Energy 13

Solutions to facilitate overnight charging will be required across
residential areas and depots
3 Residential areas 4 Depots / workplaces and fleets
 Purchasing an EV requires certainty of access to  Fleet operators of HDVs are likely to be faced with
charging, which is best provided by access to overnight high local network reinforcement costs (already
home charging observed) – an investment in assets not own by the
fleet operator: an unfamiliar risk and procedure
 Ambitious uptake scenarios and unbalanced access to
off street parking in urban/rural areas mean many Recommendations
households will need new solution for access to ‘home Local gov. : facilitate the interface between DNOs and
charging’ fleet operators and prediction of ‘demand cluster’ for
Recommendations optimised investment; socialise early adopter case
studies to share lessons learnt
Local Authorities: Continue (or begin) to investigate
solutions to infrastructure for home owners without off- Central gov. and regulator: align EV uptake ambition
street parking and share findings; implement a tenants’ with network reinforcement needs to allow/encourage
right to install infrastructure for rented properties; support ‘top-down’ strategy (upfront investment in advance of
car club installation of charge points in dedicated bays; need)
implement rules for new builds and retrofit to be ‘socket R&D bodies: support trial of new technologies (e.g.
ready’ (successfully done in Westminster City Council)
inductive, ultra fast conductive, ‘automatic plug-in’ etc.)
R&D bodies & industry: develop identification systems for that would be more practical for fleets than current
residential infrastructure shared between multiple users technologies
Central Government: Continue to monitor private sector investment trends for residential and depot based
infrastructure and adjust support as needed

Source: Element Energy 14

Mitigating the impact of electric vehicles on the network will require
new technologies and new commercial arrangements
5 Impact on electricity network
 Without management of the charging time, EVs could (when added to other technologies such as heat pumps)
require large investment in new distribution infrastructure (substations, cables) and possibly new generation /
interconnection capacity. The Smart Grid Forum identified that ‘smart’ technical and commercial solutions could
save in the order of £15bn on distribution network reinforcement costs by 2050
 DNOs will need information on EV location and uptake to plan investment and smart solutions rollout accurately
 Research is needed to understand relative impact of 3kW vs 7kW charge point deployments
 Although less studied benefits to the grid could also be available: as flexible loads, recharging EVs could provide
important grid balancing services to maintain grid frequency, to manage supply and reduce renewable curtailment
Recommendations
Central Gov. & regulators: support DNOs to access geographically disaggregated EV uptake data;
Installers and DNOs: improve platform for compiling charge point installation notifications (as stipulated by IEC)
Regulators, electricity suppliers and DNOs: develop new commercial arrangements and tariffs required for the uptake
of smart charging solutions and for customer engagement [Ofgem’s Low Carbon Fund already supports these activities]
On-going trial programs: disseminate findings on local network management solutions to DNOs and related
stakeholders
R&D bodies & DNOs: Investigate network related topics: charging/demand management technologies, Vehicle-2-Grid,
impact on battery life, co-locating energy storage devices with rapid charge points to alleviate strain on weak grid

Refer to the full report for more detail on smart solutions

Source for quoted costs: Smart Grid Forum, Assessing the Impact of Low Carbon Technologies on UK power distribution, 2012 15
 Many opportunities exist for Heavy Duty Vehicles to use natural gas
supported by mature refuelling technologies

 The UK benefits from an extensive and advanced (unique high pressure network ) gas grid, although
not fully exploited for transport applications yet.
 Even if the current network in the UK is limited (<50 stations), internationally 1000s of gas stations are
active indicating technology maturity
 The projected added demand from transport is negligible compared with the current gas demand.
However, further distribution infrastructure might be required for Liquefied Natural Gas (terminals)
 The main demand for gas will be from heavy duty vehicles, which require both bunkered refuelling (at
depots) and public refuelling for the case of long haul applications

UK natural gas demand

64,001 ktpa
Future gas
(850 TWh/year)
demand from
transport is
-94% negligible
3,770 ktpa compared to
current gas
(50 TWh/year)
demand

2013 2050
Total UK demand HGVs demand
series Buses demand

Transport demand for gas based on uptake scenarios presented on p. 9 16

 Regulatory barriers will be the primary focus for enabling natural gas
infrastructure, whilst a number of technical issues must also be resolved
Infrastructure roadmap 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
Total stations <50 c.130 c.370 800-1,000
Financial support mainly
Total cost c.£68m c.£340m c.£1bn
towards fleet operators
Prioritise higher pressure grid connection (2-70 bar, Local Transmission System and Intermediate Pressure)
CNG
where possible. L-CNG station deployment where LNG logistics are more accessible than grid connection
Optimise logistics for delivery of LNG to Strategic deployment of new LNG import terminals to minimise
LNG
Network stations, improving overall WTW emissions delivery distance to LNG refuelling stations
characteristics Commercial deployment along key trucking routes Wider national network expansion expected to be
(relevant to fully commercial
Location Targeted support for lower throughput regions
both public
EU Directive guidance met: CNG and LNG stations on TEN-T Core
and private
Network, <150km and <400km inter-station distance respectively
infrastructure)
Continued development of cooperative semi-public Greater fleet uptake provides sufficient investment
Access infrastructure shared between fleets confidence for large public stations deployment
Communicate real-time station availability and fuel price data to end users

Station size Multiple safety

Station
range: 2, 5, 10, standards may Larger LNG and LNG safety regulations modified
capacity 15 tonnes/day limit LNG storage CNG stations Multi compressors stations for CNG
to 15-20t

Natural gas vehicle stock Thousand vehicles 2020 2025 2030 2050
HGVs
Projections are based on policy- 4.0 13 26 105
<18t
led uptake scenarios presented
on page 9
HGVs
4.0 12 24 85
>18t
Data supported quantification of Buses 2.0 5.1 9.7 17
infrastructure requirements
Dashed lines represent Major milestone Indicative fuel economy: dual fuel HGV = 60 kg/day, dedicated HGV = 75 kg/day
high uncertainty /enabler Costs based industry input, future cost reductions not included 17
Planning guidance for Local Authorities will help speed up station
deployments with key outstanding safety issues addressed
1 Planning guidance 2 Safety issues
 A number of well informed, robust standards have been developed to  Health and safety regulations and
address technical issues associated the installation of natural gas codes of practice only partially
refuelling stations address infrastructure
requirements
 Infrastructure operators have identified inconsistent interpretation of
these standards by Local Authorities to significantly delay station  For example, natural gas
installation infrastructure operators have
Recommendations identified on-site storage
allowances and safety distances to
Central Government: develop planning guidance document to facilitate
be incompatible with refuelling
the uniform implementation of infrastructure equipment standards
station deployment due to
Consult with experienced Local Authorities,
regulator unfamiliarity with the
regulators, industry and utilities
use of natural gas as a road fuel
Collate
existing Recommendations
relevant
standards Develop guidance document Regulators: Re-evaluate and consider
amendment of existing standards for
Issue a Call for Evidence to understand
on-site natural gas storage allowances
most commonly adopted standards and safety distances

Cross cutting recommendation: Central Gov., LAs and regulators: Establish regular dialogue with the NGV Network, to
address planning, safety and other technical issues as well as get industry input on funding/infrastructure strategies
NGV Network = Natural Gas Vehicle Network, a platform of gas grid operators, gas and LNG suppliers,
CNG/LNG station providers, gas vehicle OEMs and other related stakeholders
18
End user experience should be harmonised across UK network through
standardisation of equipment and improved communication systems
3 Station economics and support 4 End user experience
 Industry asserted that economics for operating  Inconsistent infrastructure implementation has led
infrastructure in high throughput areas does not need to a fragmented driver experience at stations
support, as evidenced by commercial organisations  Vehicle tank receptacles are compatible with
offering turn-key solutions
different nozzles types and dispensing pressures but
 A minority of UK infrastructure projects have received no standard stipulates a specific requirement
grant funding1; further support should target areas of  Station downtime (e.g. for maintenance) is often not
lower vehicle throughput/lower base demand communicated to drivers and fuel price variations
 Areas for optimisation include costs for high pressure can significantly impact fleet operations
grid connection and venting prevention technologies Recommendations
Recommendations Central Gov. & regulators: Work with industry to
Central Government: Focus on long term support for develop the most appropriate nozzle/pressure standard
natural gas vehicle deployment and the associated to meet UK fleet operator needs for CNG, LNG and L-
infrastructure will follow growing demand if the correct CNG stations
regulatory and legislative arrangements are in place
Industry: Develop communication system to notify
Gas network operators: allow competition in LTS drivers of technical/economic factors for infrastructure
connection to reduce connection costs (e.g. station type, fuel price and maintenance schedules)
R&D bodies: Reduce costs for venting prevention /
methane capture technologies

1 - e.g. TEN-T funded projects and OLEV £4m fund for future station deployments
LTS: Local Transmission System (high pressure gas grid)
19
Innovative approaches such as semi-private stations provide a transition
strategy before wider vehicle and station deployment in the 2020s-2030s
5 Depot infrastructure sharing
Natural gas refuelling station network
 A number of fleet operators have deployed semi-private
Publically accessible
refuelling facilities under cooperative contractual
Private or semi-private
arrangements allowing pre-agreed operators to share each
others facilities
 Advantages of this approach include maximising station
throughput and reducing dependency on public infrastructure
rollout
 Opportunities for further adoption of cooperative station
ownership models will enable a transition to significant vehicle
uptake when sufficient investor confidence exists for larger
public infrastructure deployment
Recommendations
Central Government: consider counting semi-private stations
(where facility is shared between multiple, pre-agreed users) as
‘public’ in the Implementation plan to be submitted to the EC as
part of Directive 2014/94/EU1 Key infrastructure operators:
Industry: develop commercial arrangements that facilitate further
adoption of the cooperative model

1 Clean Power for Transport program – Directive on ‘the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure’ (October 2014) 20
While further research is needed, measures that minimise the GHG
emissions related to distribution and dispensing of gas should be adopted
6 Well-to-Tank (WTT) emissions UK biomethane production potential
 In keeping with national targets for reducing transport GHG emissions, Graph units: ktpa (TWh shown as reference)

emissions relating to logistics and dispensing of gas should be minimised

National Grid upper and
 Current analysis is incomplete and UK non-specific, however some lower bound scenarios for
biomethane production 2,624 ktpa
emission factors are well understood:
− CNG station siting activities should aim to access high pressure grid No Progression
Gone Green
connection points
− LNG / L-CNG station siting activities should aim to optimise delivery 35 TWh
1,048 ktpa
logistics and adopt state-of-the-art venting prevention and capture
systems 14 TWh
 Biomethane achieves greater WTT emission savings than natural gas but 49 96 114 114
UK production is limited and incentives in place divert it to applications
2015 2025 2035
other than transport
Recommendations  National Grid has developed
Local Authorities: Consider WTT emission factors in conjunction with several scenarios of
biomethane production, in the
planning guidance when approving natural gas station installations
highest case it’s 35TWh/year
Central Government: Future infrastructure strategy should consider UK i.e. <5% of total gas demand
specific findings (on-going ETI led analysis)  Under present incentives, the
R&D bodies: Reduce costs for venting prevention / methane capture ‘No progression scenario’ is the
technologies most likely case

Source: Element Energy 21

The widespread use of hydrogen for mobility will require substantial
growth in existing production and distribution infrastructure
 Production of hydrogen is currently limited to meet mostly an industrial demand and often used on-
site, with limited distribution by road in gaseous and liquid forms
 Strong growth in demand for mobility, driven by uptake of hydrogen vehicles such as passenger cars,
commercial vehicles, buses and fork lift trucks, will need to be met by new production
 A successful rollout in all vehicle types (i.e. reaching millions of vehicles after 2030) will require a
quadrupling of existing production capacity, met by conventional and green sources
 While the relative growth of hydrogen in each vehicle type remains uncertain, it is clear that a
national refuelling network will be required to support passenger cars and private customers

Current total UK hydrogen production

capacity and future transport demand
kt/year

2,300

+233%
690

2015 2050

Existing production capacity

Transport demand - based on scenario presented p. 8

Refer to the full report for full referencing of the analysis

22
Source: Element Energy
The H2 infrastructure roadmap reflects the diverse refuelling needs of
different vehicle types and the uncertainty about the speed of the rollout
Infrastructure roadmap 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
Next c. 250 ‘medium’ Next c. 700 ‘medium’ Continued growth
Public First 65 ‘small’ HRS
HRS #’s and ‘large HRS and ‘large’ HRS based on demand
access
c.£40m c.£180m £400-700m c.£6,800m
700 bar SAE-compliant fuelling for cars. HRS Basic national coverage
Pressure investors encouraged to make 350 bar H2 available Full national coverage
to support other vehicle types where needed

Location Increasing forecourt integration/decreasing stand-alone HRS

Provide base load to underutilised network in early years
Limited use of depot-based refuelling
Van/small truck depots
where cost-effective/convenient
Up to 5 additional c. Emergence of multi-tonne/day depots in major Nationwide deployment
HDV depots 350 bar
1t/day depot-based HRS urban areas, covering multiple routes each of large bus depots
Gradual growth in indoor HRS as market develops, Conversion of multiple large logistics centres
Indoor forklifts 350 bar moving from small (<50kg/day) to large (>100kg/day) from batteries to fuel cells with indoor large HRS
Production Production capacity largely Provision of new centralised capacity
H2 supply and capacity for industry application to support on-site deployments
logistics 2015
Transport c. 3 ktpa c. 190 ktpa production c. 2.3 Mtpa
demand capacity
exceeded
Hydrogen vehicle stock Thousand vehicles 2020 2025 2030 2050

180- 680- 4,200-

Projections are based on policy- Cars 2
350 1,400 16,800
led uptake scenarios presented
100- 750-
on page 9 Vans <1 30-60
200 3,000
Data supported quantification of HDVs <1 3 8 130
infrastructure requirements
Dashed lines represent Major milestone
high uncertainty /enabler
HRS: hydrogen refuelling station 23
Industry and government will need to work closely to secure the
deployment of the early public HRS network and hydrogen vehicles
1 Securing deployment of the early public HRS network
 A certain number of HRS (e.g. 65 set out by the Recommendations
H2Mobility strategy) is likely to be needed to meet the Central Government: Provide financial support
needs of the earliest customers and to continue to to early HRS, using funding conditions to ensure
attract OEMs to the UK high quality user experience and coherent
 Low utilisation means that these early HRS will need geographic strategy. Provide support to vehicles
public funding to attract private investment through existing ULEV incentives

 HRS investors will also require confidence from vehicle Local Government: Help provide ‘base load’
suppliers on the timing and ambition of vehicle demand to public HRS (e.g. FCEV procurement
deployments for public fleets) and make sites available for
refuelling stations where possible
 Customer incentives are likely to be needed to
encourage early vehicle sales as OEMs transition to OEMs: Provide transparency on numbers and
lower cost second generation vehicles locations of vehicle deployments (as far as
possible) to maximise confidence of HRS
 The network will also need to offer a consistent and high
investors
quality customer experience, in terms of the station
‘look and feel’, ease of use, payment methods etc. HRS operators/suppliers: Work closely with
vehicle suppliers and their customers to ensure
that HRS siting and specifications meet their
needs

Source: Element Energy 24

Ensuring infrastructure is compatible with all vehicle types and publicly
accessible will maximise station utilisation
2 Maximising utilisation of early stations 3 Coordination
 Early network is likely to use 700 bar refuelling,  As the network grows, coordination of HRS siting is
based on requirements of OEM passenger cars likely to be needed to optimise coverage and
 Other vehicle types (e.g. vans, small trucks) customer convenience
currently use 350 bar tanks which are not  Coordination is also likely to be needed on cross-
compatible with higher pressure dispensers cutting topics e.g. securing deployments of ‘green
 The use of dual-pressure stations (700/350bar) hydrogen’ production capacity, metering and billing,
allows public HRS to meet refuelling demands of progress towards fully forecourt-integrated stations
these vehicles, increasing early usage where  If use of standalone HRS continues, HRS operators
demand exists should work closely to define a consistent approach
 Fleet vehicle users should also be encouraged to siting and ‘look and feel’ to allow drivers to find
and use the infrastructure
to use public HRS rather than depot solutions
where feasible to further increase utilisation
Recommendations Recommendations
HRS investors: Work with vehicle suppliers to All H2 stakeholders: Identify an appropriate forum to
identify needs for dual-pressure HRS sites allow discussion of these coordination activities, and to
present an aligned UK strategy in outreach to
Local government: Encourage fleet stations to be
publicly accessible for private customers where international OEMs to maximise appetite to bring
feasible (e.g. through planning system) vehicles to the UK

Source: Element Energy 25

Existing regulations should be amended to harmonise the planning
approval process, thereby streamlining infrastructure installation
4 Siting and planning process 5 Innovation opportunities
 Lack of guidance on HRS safety  Reducing the cost of HRS, H2 production
requirements can lead to planning delays and distribution and vehicles will be
and inconsistent user experience required to allow mass-market
deployments
 Transition from standalone to forecourt-
integrated sites likely towards 2020  Quality assurance of H2 (lower cost
 Work to include hydrogen in the Blue analysis, continuous monitoring etc.) needs
Book1 is underway to represent hydrogen, to be further developed and standardised
in particular addressing electrical  Engineering solutions are required for large
hazardous zones and safety distances, scale depot refuelling beyond current fleet
giving clear guidance for use by developers sizes (e.g. c.100 bus depot requiring c.2
and petroleum officers in designing and tonnes/day)
approving HRS on forecourts  Full integration of water electrolysers into
Recommendations the grid will require further trials of
Local Authority planning teams and technical and commercial arrangements
regulatory authorities: Support the approval Recommendations
of integrating hydrogen infrastructure into Innovation funding bodies: Work with industry
existing forecourts; produce guidance to define clear innovation needs that can be
documents for standalone HRS
delivered through R&D funding and trials

1National Guidance document jointly published by the Energy Institute and Association for Petroleum and
Explosives (APEA) used to assess and sign off the safety of new forecourt installations and upgrades 26
New policy may be required in the medium term to ensure that the
future hydrogen production mix delivers CO2 emissions savings
6 Hydrogen production pathways
 Current UK hydrogen production capacity is
insufficient to meet transport demand from the
mid 2030s
 Therefore new production capacity will need to
be introduced concurrently with vehicle demand
growth, taking into account GHG emission
reduction targets
 A strategy will be needed on how this capacity
will be delivered (based on the expected
volumes of hydrogen vehicles) while ensuring
that the overall production mix delivers very low
Technology type
well-to-wheel emissions
1. Distributed water electrolysis
Recommendations 2. Conventional water electrolysis
3. Coal gasification + carbon capture and storage
Central Government: Consider policy mechanisms 4. Centralised SMR + carbon capture and storage
to ensure sufficient volumes of low carbon hydrogen 5. IGCC + carbon capture and storage
6. Distributed steam methane reforming
sources
7. Conventional steam methane reforming
R&D bodies: Investigate low cost green hydrogen 8. Internal gasification combined cycle
9. Coal gasification
production technologies

Source: A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis, McKinsey & Co, 2011
Targets: technical targets to reduce carbon footprint of hydrogen as a transport fuel
27
A fully functioning infrastructure for dominant liquid fuels exists to
supply the UK vehicle parc

 Liquid fuels (petrol and diesel) are the current dominant fuels for all road transport vehicles and as such
have a extensive distribution and refuelling systems, for both public forecourts and private bunkering
 Demand for liquid fuels in transport will significantly decrease post-2030, with a total decrease of 50% to
80% by 2050 compared to today (depending on the uptake of Plug-in hybrid EV vs. battery or fuel cell
EVs)
 The case of LPG is different, with a possible increase in demand (mostly based on Air Quality policy
drivers) from c. 100 kt today to around 300-400 kt by 2030, well within UK production capacity
 Among niche/future fuels investigated, liquid air is the most promising one, especially for transport
refrigeration units

Liquid fuel transport demand

Million tonnes/year
-53% -81%
35
31

26 23 16

13 7
9 8 4
3 3

2015 2030 2050 2050

Light vehicles (petrol & diesel) High zero emission

Heavy vehicles (diesel) vehicle uptake

Based on vehicle uptake scenarios presented p. 9, they assume a 50:50 split between diesel & petrol cars 28
 With a predicted demand decrease for liquid fuels, forecourts may
have to integrate new fuels and/or receive support in certain locations
Infrastructure roadmap 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

Continued slow rate of closures from c.8,600 stations

Public Coverage Dependent on feasibility of
Support measures for some areas might be needed to maintain network multi-fuel integration
forecourts
Trial integration of multiple Increased coexistence of multi-fuel and/or specific support
Integration mechanisms
fuel infrastructures infrastructure to maximise utilisation
Potential transition to E20 would
E20 forecourt c. £250m-£600m investment required for
require upgrades to existing forecourts
investment upgrades and capacity installations

Growing proportion of bunkered demand

Diesel
will shift to utilise forecourts with fuel cards
Private Operators trial niche fuel with Key findings from trials inform
depots Niche fuels
small numbers of fleet vehicles future operator investment
c.2,000 Depot infrastructure fully commercial – growth to follow demand

Public selling LPG

Infrastructure growth
points c.1,400 c. 2,000 c. 3,000
entirely market driven

Liquid fuel vehicle stock Thousand vehicles 2020 2025 2030 2050
By 2050 cars are mostly RE-EVs / PHEVs

6,000-
Projections are based on policy- Cars 30,000 32,000 32,000
31,000
led uptake scenarios presented 50-80%
decrease in 1,000-
on page 9 Vans 4,000 4,300 4,300
fuel 5,000
Data supported quantification of demand on
HDVs 700 700 700
2015 levels
360
infrastructure requirements
Dashed lines represent Major milestone
high uncertainty /enabler 29
Delays to planning to modify forecourts should be minimised to avoid
investor uncertainty and financial support may be needed in certain areas
1 Station economics and support 2 Planning permission guidance 3 Innovation opportunities
 Steep decline in demand beyond  Acquiring planning permission to  Biodiesel and bioethanol
2030 is likely to significantly impact upgrade existing forecourt require additional handling
commercial viability of fuel retailing, facilities can often be delayed or considerations
(particularly for small public rejected
 Higher bioethanol blends can
forecourts located in rural areas of  Delays for upgrade approval can damage regular refuelling
the UK to start with, but more cause partial unavailability and facilities by causing stress
widespread issue in long term)
negatively impact commercial corrosion cracking of steel
 A transition to a higher biofuel operation, thereby directly and degradation of
blend will require large investments accelerating forecourt closure, elastomers, therefore
for tank replacements and/or particularly for underutilised significant investment will be
upgrades areas required to upgrade existing
infrastructure
Recommendations Recommendations
Central Government: Consider Central Gov. and LAs: Work with Recommendations
mechanisms to ensure minimum filling regulators to identify common causes R&D bodies: Investigate cost
station coverage, particularly in rural of delays and improve planning reduction opportunities for
areas permission guidelines as appropriate station upgrades to handle higher
biofuel blends
Local Authorities: Identify any local
supply shortages and forecourts most
affected by declining fuel demand

Source: Element Energy 30

As declining liquid fuel demand causes station closures, facilitating
optimal use of remaining forecourts is likely to be required
4 Multi-fuel infrastructure integration 5 Communication of forecourt availability
 The transport system is expected to be decarbonised  As forecourt closures continue (and new
through multiple alternative fuels / energy vectors blends are introduced), there will be an
 Existing forecourts are strategically sited to optimally increasing need to ensure drivers can easily
access information detailing station & blend
service driver needs by major roads and junctions
availability and location
 Co-locating infrastructure for multiple fuels at
forecourts could ensure utilisation is maintained  Communication systems to inform drivers of
real-time fuel availability at nearby public
Recommendations forecourts supported by a national database
Regulators: Develop standards for co-locating multiple could be developed
infrastructures and work with central government to
 Central coordination of software
develop planning guidance for Local Authorities
development will ensure a consistent
R&D bodies: Identify technical barriers to co-locating interface between drivers and public
multiple infrastructures (e.g. high power rapid charge infrastructure e.g. allowing use with existing
points adjacent to liquid fuels) navigation system providers
Industry and gov.: Liaise with APEA to update Blue Book1 Recommendations
accordingly
Industry: Develop communication system

+
1National Guidance document jointly published by the Energy Institute and Association for Petroleum and
Explosives (APEA) used to assess and sign off the safety of new forecourt installations and upgrades 31
Liquid air has the highest potential and developing a distribution
infrastructure for transport might require investment in UK skills

Methanol Liquid Air (LAIR) E85

 Consulted industry stakeholders are  Existing liquid nitrogen (LIN) production  Consulted industry
doubtful of the potential of will be used first, before dedicated stakeholders are doubtful of
methanol in the UK, on the basis of liquid air production is started the potential of E85, on the
safety concerns and need for new  LIN/LAIR will be used mostly for cooling basis of the lack of vehicle
HGVs engine development (HGVs and/or for hybrid applications, as supply, barriers to adoption
are target vehicles for methanol in opposed to becoming a prime mover of new grade at inland
the UK) terminals and forecourts and
 It is expected LAIR will be used low energy content (adding
 Furthermore, the air quality exclusively by fleets with depot
benefits and CO2 benefits are not issue to consumer
refuelling acceptance and fuel duty
unclear
 Specialist skilled workers will be issue if price parity with
 If used for UK transport, high blend needed for liquid air distribution (e.g. E5/E10 (per km) must be
methanol will likely be bunkered cryogenic engineers and technicians ) supported)
(not at forecourts)
 Skill-set overlap with other sectors must  Adoption of E85 could not
 UK would need to develop codes of be investigated and consistent training be possible if E20 is adopted
practise for storage and handling of programmes developed as required (limit to number of grades)
methanol as well as planning
guidance; input from industry  Production of LIN / LAIR require  Distribution would be as for
players and countries familiar with electricity but the energy vector can E10: blended at inland
methanol will be valuable also be used as a form of energy storage terminals and transported by
trucks to forecourts

Source: Element Energy and industry input 32

 Local Authorities will have a significant role in the delivery of the
Infrastructure Roadmap
 In practice, the Infrastructure Roadmap must be translated into infrastructure strategies developed and led at
local level as demand for fuels and opportunities are specific to a region/city. Cities also have varying focus on CO2
emissions or Air Quality issues
 Local refuelling strategies must account for:
• the local demand from fleet and public transport, and the current infrastructure in place
• the local opportunities for production of low carbon fuel or distribution (e.g. access to high pressure gas grid,
to high voltage network)

Specific actions LAs can take to support the rollout of refuelling infrastructure Birmingham City strategy
 Encourage and contribute to the uptake of low carbon vehicles – e.g.
adoption in Council fleet, setting local incentives
 Use planning guidance to deliver strategy recommendations for
infrastructure – e.g. regarding siting and technical specifications
 Assist infrastructure providers in finding/assessing land for installation – e.g.
identify owner, provide road access and traffic data
 Streamline planning processes for renewable fuel production and
infrastructure
 Include low carbon fuels for transport into the development of energy
system strategies – e.g. transport considerations can be integrated to review
of waste strategy (biomethane can produce heat, electricity or used as fuel)
 Work closely with private fleets on demonstration and deployment activities
for low carbon vehicles – e.g. encourage formation of stakeholder group for
experience sharing, joint procurement and consortia formation for funding

Source: Element Energy for Birmingham City Council, A City Blueprint for Low Carbon Fuel refuelling Infrastructure, 2015 33
Contents

Background and objectives

Approach

Transport Infrastructure Roadmaps

Conclusions

34
 The deployment of public refuelling infrastructure for transport will
require significant new investment and long term policy clarity

Investment to deliver the future refuelling/recharging Cumulative public

infrastructure will require: infrastructure investment1

– Strong confidence for private investors, i.e. clear £10bn

and long term government position for different Liquid fuels
fuels and policy drivers, confidence in long term
Electricity
revenues to justify upfront investment
Hydrogen
– Funding support in some cases in early years Methane
(when asset utilisation levels are low)

– Coordination across government, regulators £2.1bn

and industry to remove certain barriers to
installation of new infrastructure e.g. lack £0.2bn
of/unclear planning guidance, harmonisation of
2020 2030 2050
safety procedures, integration of new fuels in
existing forecourts
Early investments Private investments
needing support in profitable assets

1Includes stations capital costs only, opportunities for cost reduction to 2050 are not
35
included. Investment related to grid reinforcement not included
 Both central and local Governments and industry have roles to play in
this deployment – coordination of efforts will be needed

Role of Central Government Role of Local Authorities Role of industry

 The Roadmap could be used  The Roadmap could be  The Roadmap highlights the
for future policy design, for translated into local strategies importance of deploying a
example supporting early developed and led at local level nationally harmonised
infrastructure investments, as demand for fuels and infrastructure for each fuel
mechanisms to encourage opportunities are specific to a type requiring an industry
continued/increased region/city with varying focus on led, coordinated approach
production of low carbon CO2 emissions or AQ issues  This role extends to
fuels, targeted R&D activities,  Local strategies should consider ensuring a consistent and
identifying strategic needs in local demand from fleet and high quality customer offer
specific UK locations public transport, existing for new fuels
 Coordinating LAs and infrastructure, and local  Industry are also well
communicating consistent opportunities for production positioned to pursue
infrastructure planning and/or distribution of low infrastructure cost
guidelines will avoid delays carbon fuel reduction opportunities
and ensure consistent provided a business case
infrastructure rollout can be established

AQ = Air Quality, LA = Local Authorities 36

End user experience key to acceptance and uptake of new fuels; further
innovation is required to fully meet the needs of mass-market customers

 Ensuring sufficient access to public refuelling/recharging infrastructure as well as

harmonising the end user experience of infrastructure is key to supporting low emission
vehicle uptake
 Innovation will be needed:
– Communication/IT solutions: for sharing charge points or refuelling stations across
private users, for new services such as dynamic booking, forecourt choice and
availability
– Technologies: e.g. to identify most appropriate recharging technology for depots;
hydrogen metering and quality assurance; optimising equipment for handling higher
biofuel blends
– Commercial arrangements: e.g. to minimise network impact of EVs with ‘smart’
solutions (e.g. Demand Side Management) allow water electrolysers to secure
revenues from providing grid services
 Minimising WTT emissions associated with production and logistics of fuels (in particular
methane and hydrogen as decarbonisation targets are already in place for electricity)
should be considered for future infrastructure siting and technology selection decisions

EVs : Electric Vehicles, WTT = Well-to-Tank 37

 The Infrastructure Roadmap will have to be updated to evolve with
the expected innovations in both refuelling and vehicle technologies

 The roadmap captures the future infrastructure development

needs based on today’s knowledge of refuelling/recharging
technologies and based on ambitious uptake scenarios for
alternative fuels
 The Roadmap will have to be updated on a regular basis for its
outputs to remain relevant as technologies evolve:
− Innovations on infrastructure technologies are expected,
especially around charging technologies, where deployment
of new solutions could significantly change the strategy (e.g.
dynamic wireless vs. ultra fast charging)
− Vehicles are expected to change too, notably with the
introduction of autonomous vehicles. Opportunities and
development enablers for autonomous vehicles to
refuel/recharge during non-operational windows, thus
removing the need for driver-infrastructure interaction need
to be better understood and included in future roadmaps

Source: Element Energy 38

Acronyms and references

39
 Acronyms

BEV Battery Electric Vehicle LCNG Liquefied and Compressed Natural Gas
CCC Committee on Climate Change LIN Liquid Nitrogen
CNG Compressed Natural Gas LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
COMAH Control of Major Accident Hazard LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
CP Charge Point LTS Local Transmission System
DECC Department of Energy & Climate Change Mt Million tonnes
DfT Department for Transport NGVA Natural Gas Vehicle Association
DNO Distribution Network Operators OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
DSR Demand Side Response OLEV Office for Low Emission Vehicles
EC European Commission PAYG Pay AS You Go
ETI Energy Technologies Institute PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
EU European Union R&D Research and Development
EV Electric Vehicle REEV Ranger Extender Electric Vehicle
FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle SGF Smart Grid Forum
FCH JU Fuel Cell Hydrogen Joint Undertaking SME Small and medium enterprises
H2 Hydrogen SMR Steam Methane Reforming
HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle STOR Short Term Operating Response
HRS Hydrogen Refuelling Station TEN-T Trans-European Transport Networks
HSE Health and Safety Executive ToU Time of Use
ICE Internal Combustion Engine TSO Transmission system operator
IEC International Electro-technical Commission TTW Tank-to-Wheel
IGEM Institute for Gas Engineers and Managers ULEV Ultra-Low Emissions Vehicle
ktpa thousands tonnes per annum WE Water Electrolysis
LA Local Authority WTT Well-to-Tank
LBM Liquid Biomethane WTW Well-to-Wheel

40
 Main references

− A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis, 2011

− AEA for DfT, Modes 3 study, 2011
− DECC, Energy consumption in the UK, 2014
− DfT presentation at NGV day, Low Carbon Truck and Refuelling Infrastructure Demonstration Trial Evaluation, June 2014
− DFT, RTFO Biofuel Statistics, 2014
− DUKES Chapter 3, 4, 5, 2015
− ECF, Fuelling Europe’s Future: How auto innovation leads to EU jobs, 2013
− Ecofys, UK Biofuel Industry overview, 2013
− Element Energy and E4Tech for the FCH JU, Development of Water Electrolysis in the European Union, 2014
− Element Energy for Birmingham City Council, A City Blue Print for Low Carbon Fuel Refuelling Infrastructure, 2015
− Element Energy for CLNR, Review of existing commercial arrangements and emerging best practice, 2013
− Element Energy for the Committee on Climate Change, Infrastructure in a low-carbon energy system to 2030: Transmission and
distribution, 2013
− Element Energy, Ecolane and al. for the Committee on Climate Change, Pathways to high penetration of EVs, 2013
− ERTRAC, Energy Carriers for Powertrains, 2014
− ETI, An affordable transition to sustainable and secure energy for light vehicles in the UK, 2013
− European Parliament and Council, Directive 2009/30/EC, 2009
− JRC, WTT analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context, 2014
− Liquid Air Energy Network, Liquid Air on the Highway, 2014
− National Grid, Future Energy Scenarios, 2014
− Ricardo AEA, Assessment of the existing UK infrastructure capacity and vehicle fleet capability for the use of biofuels, 2011
− Roads2Hycom Deliverable 2.1 and 2.1a, 2007
− Smart Grid Forum, Assessing the Impact of Low Carbon Technologies on UK power distribution, 2012
− UK H2Mobility Phase 1, public report, 2013
− UKPIA, Statistical Review, 2014
− UKPN for Low Carbon London, Impact and opportunities for wide-scale Electric Vehicle deployment, 2014

Refer to the Technical Appendix (issued separately) for a full list of references 41