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Topic: Global Warming: Terminology

Global warming is caused primarily by human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane from burning fossil fuels. This is rapidly increasing temperatures worldwide, causing effects like more extreme weather, rising sea levels, and disrupted ecosystems. While some adaptation is possible, limiting further warming through mitigation efforts like transitioning to renewable energy is needed to avoid severe, long-lasting impacts. Multiple independent studies show global temperatures have risen about 1°C above pre-industrial levels, with human activity responsible for virtually all the observed warming since 1950.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
127 views17 pages

Topic: Global Warming: Terminology

Global warming is caused primarily by human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane from burning fossil fuels. This is rapidly increasing temperatures worldwide, causing effects like more extreme weather, rising sea levels, and disrupted ecosystems. While some adaptation is possible, limiting further warming through mitigation efforts like transitioning to renewable energy is needed to avoid severe, long-lasting impacts. Multiple independent studies show global temperatures have risen about 1°C above pre-industrial levels, with human activity responsible for virtually all the observed warming since 1950.
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Topic: Global Warming

Contemporary climate change includes both global warming caused by humans and its impacts
on Earth's weather patterns. There have been previous periods of climate change, but the current
changes are more rapid than any known events in Earth's history. The main cause is the emission
of greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane. Burning fossil fuels for energy
use creates most of these emissions. Agriculture, steel making, cement production, and forest
loss are additional sources. Temperature rise is also affected by climate feedbacks such as the
loss of sunlight-reflecting snow cover, and the release of carbon dioxide from drought-stricken
forests. Collectively, these amplify global warming.

On land, temperatures have risen about twice as fast as the global average. Deserts are
expanding, while heat waves and wildfires are becoming more common. Increased warming in
the Arctic has contributed to melting permafrost, glacial retreat and sea ice loss. Higher
temperatures are also causing more intense storms and other weather extremes. In places such as
coral reefs, mountains, and the Arctic, many species are forced to relocate or become extinct, as
their environment changes. Climate change threatens people with food and water scarcity,
increased flooding, extreme heat, more disease, and economic loss. It can also drive human
migration. The World Health Organization calls climate change the greatest threat to global
health in the 21st century. Even if efforts to minimise future warming are successful, some
effects will continue for centuries. These include sea level rise, and warmer, more acidic
oceans.Many of these impacts are already felt at the current level of warming, which is about 1.2
°C (2 °F). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects even greater impacts
as warming continues to 1.5 °C and beyond. Additional warming also increases the risk of
triggering tipping points, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Responding to these
changes involves taking actions to limit the amount of warming, and adapting to them. Future
warming can be reduced (mitigated) by lowering greenhouse gas emissions and removing them
from the atmosphere. This will involve using more wind and solar energy, phasing out coal, and
increasing energy efficiency. Switching to electric vehicles, to public transport, and to heat
pumps for homes and commercial buildings, would further limit emissions. Prevention of
deforestation and enhancing forests can help absorb CO2. Some communities may adapt to
climate change through better coastline protection, disaster management, and development of
more resistant crops. By themselves, these efforts to adapt cannot avert the risk of severe,
widespread and permanent impacts.Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations collectively agreed
to keep warming "well under 2 °C" through mitigation efforts. However, with pledges made
under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about 2.7 °C by the end of the century.
Limiting warming to 1.5 °C would require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero
emissions by 2050.

Terminology
Before the 1980s, it was unclear whether warming by greenhouse gases would dominate aerosol-
induced cooling. Scientists then often used the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to
the human impact on the climate. In the 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change
were popularised. The former refers only to increased surface warming, the latter describes the
full effect of greenhouse gases on the climate. Global warming became the most popular term
after NASA climate scientist James Hansen used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate. In
the 2000s, the term climate change increased in popularity. Global warming usually refers to
human-induced warming of the Earth system, whereas climate change can refer to natural or
anthropogenic change. The two terms are often used interchangeably.Various scientists,
politicians and media figures have adopted the terms climate crisis or climate emergency to talk
about climate change, and global heating instead of global warming. The policy editor-in-chief
of The Guardian said they included this language in their editorial guidelines "to ensure that we
are being scientifically precise, while also communicating clearly with readers on this very
important issue". In 2019, Oxford Languages chose climate emergency as its word of the year,
defining it as "a situation in which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and
avoid potentially irreversible environmental damage resulting from it".

Observed temperature rise


Multiple independent instrumental datasets show that the climate system is warming. The 2011–
2020 decade warmed 1.09 °C [0.95–1.20 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–
1900). Surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade, with 2020 reaching a
temperature of 1.2 °C above pre-industrial. Since 1950, the number of cold days and nights has
decreased, and the number of warm days and nights has increased.There was little net warming
between the 18th century and the mid-19th century. Climate information for that period comes
from climate proxies, such as trees and ice cores. They show that natural variations offset the
early effects of the Industrial Revolution. Thermometer records began to provide global coverage
around 1850. Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Climate Anomaly
and the Little Ice Age, did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may
have reached as high as those of the late-20th century in a limited set of regions. There have been
prehistorical episodes of global warming, such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.
However, the modern observed rise in temperature and CO2 concentrations has been so rapid
that even abrupt geophysical events in Earth's history do not approach current rates.Evidence of
warming from air temperature measurements are reinforced with a wide range of other
observations. There has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation,
melting of snow and land ice, and increased atmospheric humidity. Flora and fauna are also
behaving in a manner consistent with warming; for instance, plants are flowering earlier in
spring. Another key indicator is the cooling of the upper atmosphere, which demonstrates that
greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface and preventing it from radiating into
space.Regions warm at various rates. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are
emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-
industrial period, global average land temperatures have increased almost twice as fast as global
average surface temperatures. This is because of the larger heat capacity of oceans, and because
oceans lose more heat by evaporation. Over 90% of the extra energy in the climate system over
the last 50 years has been stored in the ocean. The rest has heated the atmosphere, melted ice,
and warmed the continents.The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much
faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has
much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and sea ice. As these surfaces flip from
reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat.
Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming. Arctic
temperatures are increasing at over twice the rate of the rest of the world. Melting of glaciers and
ice sheets in the Arctic disrupts ocean circulation, including a weakened Gulf Stream, further
changing the climate.

Drivers of recent temperature rise


The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years (such as the El
Niño–Southern Oscillation), decades or even centuries. Other changes are caused by an
imbalance of energy that is "external" to the climate system, but not always external to the Earth.
Examples of external forcings include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, solar
luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.To determine
the human contribution to climate change, known internal climate variability and natural external
forcings need to be ruled out. A key approach is to determine unique "fingerprints" for all
potential causes, then compare these fingerprints with observed patterns of climate change. For
example, solar forcing can be ruled out as a major cause. Its fingerprint would be warming in the
entire atmosphere. Yet, only the lower atmosphere has warmed, consistent with greenhouse gas
forcing. Attribution of recent climate change shows that the main driver is elevated greenhouse
gases, but that aerosols also have a strong effect.

Greenhouse gases

The Earth absorbs sunlight, then radiates it as heat. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb
and reemit infrared radiation, slowing the rate at which it can pass through the atmosphere and
escape into space. Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse
gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their
absence. While water vapour (~50%) and clouds (~25%) are the biggest contributors to the
greenhouse effect, they increase as a function of temperature and are therefore feedbacks. On the
other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO2 (~20%), tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous
oxide are not temperature-dependent, and are therefore external forcings.Human activity since
the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas),
has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in a radiative
imbalance. In 2019, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 48% and
160%, respectively, since 1750. These CO2 levels are higher than they have been at any time
during the last 2 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the
last 800,000 years.

Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, excluding those from land use change,
were equivalent to 52 billion tonnes of CO2. Of these emissions, 72% was CO2, 19% was
methane, 6% was nitrous oxide, and 3% was fluorinated gases. CO2 emissions primarily come
from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport, manufacturing, heating, and electricity.
Additional CO2 emissions come from deforestation and industrial processes, which include the
CO2 released by the chemical reactions for making cement, steel, aluminum, and fertiliser.
Methane emissions come from livestock, manure, rice cultivation, landfills, wastewater, and coal
mining, as well as oil and gas extraction. Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the
microbial decomposition of inorganic and organic fertiliser. From a production standpoint, the
primary sources of global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated as: electricity and heat (25%),
agriculture and forestry (24%), industry and manufacturing (21%), transport (14%), and
buildings (6%).Despite the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's
land surface, particularly its forests, remain a significant carbon sink for CO2. Natural processes,
such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, more than offset the greenhouse gas
contributions from deforestation. The land-surface sink is estimated to remove about 29% of
annual global CO2 emissions. The ocean also serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step
process. First, CO2 dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean's overturning
circulation distributes it deep into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time as part of
the carbon cycle. Over the last two decades, the world's oceans have absorbed 20 to 30% of
emitted CO2.

Aerosols and clouds

Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, not only puts a large burden on human health, but also
affects the climate on a large scale. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of
sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed, a phenomenon popularly known as global
dimming, typically attributed to aerosols from biofuel and fossil fuel burning. Globally, aerosols
have been declining since 1990, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as
much.Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. They also have indirect effects on the Earth's
radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have
more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds
with fewer and larger droplets. They also reduce the growth of raindrops, which makes clouds
more reflective to incoming sunlight. Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in
radiative forcing.While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black
carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this
increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise. Limiting new
black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.

Changes of the land surface

Humans change the Earth's surface mainly to create more agricultural land. Today, agriculture
takes up 34% of Earth's land area, while 26% is forests, and 30% is uninhabitable (glaciers,
deserts, etc.). The amount of forested land continues to decrease, largely due to conversion to
cropland in the tropics. This deforestation is the most significant aspect of land surface change
affecting global warming. The main causes of deforestation are: permanent land-use change from
forest to agricultural land producing products such as beef and palm oil (27%), logging to
produce forestry/forest products (26%), short term shifting cultivation (24%), and wildfires
(23%).Land use changes not only affect greenhouse gas emissions. The type of vegetation in a
region affects the local temperature. It impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into
space (albedo), and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the change from a dark
forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation
can also affect temperatures by modifying the release of chemical compounds that influence
clouds, and by changing wind patterns. In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce
significant warming, while at latitudes closer to the poles a gain of albedo (as forest is replaced
by snow cover) leads to a cooling effect. Globally, these effects are estimated to have led to a
slight cooling, dominated by an increase in surface albedo.
Solar and volcanic activity

Physical climate models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades
when taking into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity. As the Sun is the
Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the climate system.
Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites, and indirect measurements are
available from the early 1600s onwards. There has been no upward trend in the amount of the
Sun's energy reaching the Earth. Further evidence for greenhouse gases causing global warming
comes from measurements that show a warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere),
coupled with a cooling of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere). If solar variations were
responsible for the observed warming, the troposphere and stratosphere would both
warm.Explosive volcanic eruptions represent the largest natural forcing over the industrial era.
When the eruption is sufficiently strong (with sulfur dioxide reaching the stratosphere), sunlight
can be partially blocked for a couple of years. The temperature signal lasts about twice as long.
In the industrial era, volcanic activity has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends.
Present-day volcanic CO2 emissions are equivalent to less than 1% of current anthropogenic
CO2 emissions.

Climate change feedback

The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is modified by feedbacks: increased by
self-reinforcing feedbacks and reduced by balancing feedbacks. The main reinforcing feedbacks
are the water-vapour feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and probably the net effect of clouds.
The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling, as Earth's surface gives off more heat to
space in response to rising temperature. In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks
in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO2 on plant growth. Uncertainty over
feedbacks is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of
warming for a given amount of emissions.As air gets warmer, it can hold more moisture. After
initial warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases, the atmosphere will hold more water.
Water vapour is a potent greenhouse gas, so this further heats the atmosphere. If cloud cover
increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. If clouds become
higher and thinner, they act as an insulator, reflecting heat from below back downwards and
warming the planet. Overall, the net cloud feedback over the industrial era has probably
exacerbated temperature rise. The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic reduces the
albedo of the Earth's surface. More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions,
contributing to amplification of Arctic temperature changes. Arctic amplification is also melting
permafrost, which releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere.Around half of human-caused
CO2 emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans. On land, elevated CO2 and
an extended growing season have stimulated plant growth. Climate change increases droughts
and heat waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain whether this carbon sink will
continue to grow in the future. Soils contain large quantities of carbon and may release some
when they heat up. As more CO2 and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it acidifies, its circulation
changes and phytoplankton takes up less carbon, decreasing the rate at which the ocean absorbs
atmospheric carbon. Climate change can increase methane emissions from wetlands, marine and
freshwater systems, and permafrost.
Future warming and the carbon budget
Future warming depends on the strengths of climate feedbacks and on emissions of greenhouse
gases. The former are often estimated using climate models, developed by multiple scientific
institutions. A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical, and biological
processes that affect the climate system. Models include changes in the Earth's orbit, historical
changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing. Computer models attempt to reproduce and
predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon
between the land surface and the atmosphere. Models project different future temperature rises
for given emissions of greenhouse gases; they do not fully agree on the strength of different
feedbacks on climate sensitivity and magnitude of inertia of the climate system.The physical
realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.
Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage and underestimated the rate of
precipitation increase. Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more
recent models agree well with observations. The 2017 United States-published National Climate
Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback
processes".A subset of climate models add societal factors to a simple physical climate model.
These models simulate how population, economic growth, and energy use affect – and interact
with – the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future
greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models to generate
climate change projections. In some scenarios emissions continue to rise over the century, while
others have reduced emissions. Fossil fuel resources are too abundant for shortages to be relied
on to limit carbon emissions in the 21st century. Emissions scenarios can be combined with
modelling of the carbon cycle to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
might change in the future. According to these combined models, by 2100 the atmospheric
concentration of CO2 could be as low as 380 or as high as 1400 ppm, depending on the
socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario.The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projects
that global warming is very likely to reach 1.0 °C to 1.8 °C by the late 21st century under the
very low GHG emissions scenario. In an intermediate scenario global warming would reach 2.1
°C to 3.5 °C, and 3.3 °C to 5.7 °C under the very high GHG emissions scenario. These
projections are based on climate models in combination with observations.The remaining carbon
budget is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and the climate sensitivity to greenhouse
gases. According to the IPCC, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a two-thirds
chance if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570 gigatonnes of CO2. This corresponds to
10 to 13 years of current emissions. There are high uncertainties about the budget. For instance,
it may be 100 gigatonnes of CO2 smaller due to methane release from permafrost and wetlands.

Impacts
Physical environment

The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans, ice,
and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from
studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations. Since the
1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.
Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia.
The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing. Frequency of
tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change.

Global sea level is rising as a consequence of glacial melt, melt of the ice sheets in Greenland
and Antarctica, and thermal expansion. Between 1993 and 2020, the rise increased over time,
averaging 3.3 ± 0.3 mm per year. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high
emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm. Increased ocean warmth is
undermining and threatening to unplug Antarctic glacier outlets, risking a large melt of the ice
sheet and the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.Climate change
has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice. While ice-free summers are
expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten
years at a warming level of 2 °C. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to changes in
ocean chemistry. An increase in dissolved CO2 is causing oceans to acidify. In addition, oxygen
levels are decreasing as oxygen is less soluble in warmer water. Dead zones in the ocean, regions
with very little oxygen, are expanding too.

Tipping points and long-term impacts

The greater the amount of global warming, the greater the risk of passing through ‘tipping
points’, thresholds beyond which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures
are reduced. An example is the collapse of West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, where a
temperature rise of 1.5 to 2 °C may commit the ice sheets to melt, although the time scale of melt
is uncertain and depends on future warming. Some large-scale changes could occur over a short
time period, such as a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which would
trigger major climate changes in the North Atlantic, Europe, and North America.The long-term
effects of climate change include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level rise, and ocean
acidification. On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of climate change will be
determined primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is due to CO2's long atmospheric
lifetime. Oceanic CO2 uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will continue for hundreds
to thousands of years. These emissions are estimated to have prolonged the current interglacial
period by at least 100,000 years. Sea level rise will continue over many centuries, with an
estimated rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years.

Nature and wildlife

Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher
altitudes. Higher atmospheric CO2 levels and an extended growing season have resulted in
global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some
regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear. Climate change has contributed
to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics. The
size and speed of global warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely. Overall,
it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species.The oceans have
heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the
colder poles faster than species on land. Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more
frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp, and
seabirds. Ocean acidification makes it harder for organisms such as mussels, barnacles and corals
to produce shells and skeletons; and heatwaves have bleached coral reefs. Harmful algal blooms
enhanced by climate change and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and
cause great loss of marine life. Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of
global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts.

Humans

The effects of climate change on humans, mostly due to warming and shifts in precipitation,
have been detected worldwide. Impacts are now observable on all continents and across ocean
regions, with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the greatest risk. Continued warming has
potentially “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts” for people and ecosystems. The risks are
unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and
developed countries.

Food and health

Health impacts include both the direct effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of
life, and indirect effects such as undernutrition brought on by crop failures. Various infectious
diseases are more easily transmitted in a warmer climate, such as dengue fever, which affects
children most severely, and malaria. Young children are the most vulnerable to food shortages,
and together with older people, to extreme heat. The World Health Organization (WHO) has
estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause around 250,000
additional deaths per year from heat exposure in elderly people, increases in diarrheal disease,
malaria, dengue, coastal flooding, and childhood undernutrition. Over 500,000 additional adult
deaths are projected yearly by 2050 due to reductions in food availability and quality. Other
major health risks associated with climate change include air and water quality. The WHO has
classified human impacts from climate change as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st
century.Climate change is affecting food security. It has caused reduction in global mean yields
of maize, wheat, and soybeans between 1981 and 2010. Future warming could further reduce
global yields of major crops. Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low-
latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative. Up to an
additional 183 million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of
hunger as a consequence of these impacts. The effects of warming on the oceans impact fish
stocks, with a global decline in the maximum catch potential. Only polar stocks are showing an
increased potential. Regions dependent on glacier water, regions that are already dry, and small
islands are at increased risk of water stress due to climate change.

Livelihoods

Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a probability of disastrous
tail-risk events. Climate change has likely already increased global economic inequality, and this
trend is projected to continue. Most of the severe impacts are expected in sub-Saharan Africa and
South-East Asia, where existing poverty is already exacerbated. The World Bank estimates that
climate change could drive over 120 million people into poverty by 2030. Current inequalities
between men and women, between rich and poor, and between different ethnicities have been
observed to worsen as a consequence of climate variability and climate change. An expert
elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in armed conflict has been small compared
to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities, but that future warming will
bring increasing risks.Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened through hazards
posed by sea level rise, such as flooding and permanent submergence. This could lead to
statelessness for populations in island nations, such as the Maldives and Tuvalu. In some regions,
rise in temperature and humidity may be too severe for humans to adapt to. With worst-case
climate change, models project that almost one-third of humanity might live in extremely hot and
uninhabitable climates, similar to the current climate found in the Sahara. These factors, plus
weather extremes, can drive environmental migration, both within and between countries.
Displacement of people is expected to increase as a consequence of more frequent extreme
weather, sea level rise, and conflict arising from increased competition over natural resources.
Climate change may also increase vulnerability, leading to "trapped populations" who are not
able to move due to a lack of resources.

Responses: mitigation and adaptation


Mitigation

Climate change can be mitigated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by enhancing sinks
that absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. In order to limit global warming to less than
1.5 °C with a high likelihood of success, global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be net-zero
by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2 °C target. This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an
unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry. The United
Nations Environment Programme estimates that countries need to triple their pledges under the
Paris Agreement within the next decade to limit global warming to 2 °C. An even greater level of
reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal. With pledges made under the Agreement as of
October 2021, global warming would still have a 66% chance of reaching about 2.7 °C (range:
2.2–3.2 °C) by the end of the century.Although there is no single pathway to limit global
warming to 1.5 or 2 °C, most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of
renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the
needed greenhouse gas reductions. To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon
sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry, such as
preventing deforestation and restoring natural ecosystems by reforestation.Other approaches to
mitigating climate change have a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5
°C typically project the large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal methods over the 21st century.
There are concerns, though, about over-reliance on these technologies, and environmental
impacts. Solar radiation management (SRM) is also a possible supplement to deep reductions in
emissions. However, SRM would raise significant ethical and legal issues, and the risks are
poorly understood.

Clean energy

Renewable energy is key to limiting climate change. Fossil fuels accounted for 80% of the
world's energy in 2018. The remaining share was split between nuclear power and renewables
(including solar and wind power, bioenergy, geothermal energy, and hydropower). That mix is
projected to change significantly over the next 30 years. Solar and wind have seen substantial
growth and progress over the last few years. Solar panels and onshore wind are the cheapest
forms of adding new power generation capacity in most countries. Renewables represented 75%
of all new electricity generation installed in 2019, nearly all solar and wind. Meanwhile, nuclear
power share remains the same but costs are increasing. Nuclear power generation is now several
times more expensive per megawatt-hour than wind and solar.To achieve carbon neutrality by
2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to
85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. The use of electricity for heating and transport, would
rise to the point where electricity becomes the largest form of energy. Investment in coal would
be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.In transport, scenarios envision sharp
increases in the market share of electric vehicles, of public transport and of a switch to low-
carbon fuel for other transportation modes like shipping. Heating would be increasingly
decarbonised with the use of technologies like heat pumps.There are obstacles to the continued
rapid growth of renewables. For solar and wind power, a key challenge is their intermittency and
seasonal variability. Traditionally, hydro dams with reservoirs and conventional power plants
have been used when variable energy production is low. Intermittency is further countered by
expanding battery storage and matching energy demand and supply. Long-distance transmission
can smooth variability of renewable output across wider geographic areas. There can be
environmental and land use concerns with large solar and wind projects, while bioenergy is often
not carbon-neutral and may have negative consequences for food security. Hydropower growth
has been slowing and is set to decline further due to concerns about social and environmental
impacts.Low-carbon energy improves human health by minimising climate change and has the
near-term benefit of reducing air pollution deaths, which were estimated at 7 million annually in
2016. Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about
a million of those lives per year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could save
millions and simultaneously increase energy security and reduce poverty.

Energy efficiency

Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions. If less energy is needed,
there is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the
electricity grid, and minimises carbon-intensive infrastructure development. Major increases in
energy efficiency investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level
of investment in renewable energy. Several COVID-19 related changes in energy use patterns,
energy efficiency investments, and funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult
and uncertain.Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In transport, passengers and
freight can switch to more efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric
vehicles. Industrial strategies to reduce energy demand include increasing the energy efficiency
of heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products, and increasing product
lifetimes. In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings, and aiming for
higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting. The use of technologies like heat pumps can
also increase building energy efficiency.

Agriculture and industry


Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing
the further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food
demand. A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two thirds
from 2010 levels. These include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural
products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse
gas emissions from agricultural production.Steel and cement production, responsible for about
13% of industrial CO2 emissions, present particular challenges. In these industries, carbon-
intensive materials such as coke and lime play an integral role in the production, so that reducing
CO2 emissions requires research into alternative chemistries.

Carbon sequestration

Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of CO2 beyond
naturally occurring levels. Reforestation and tree planting on non-forest lands are among the
most mature sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food security concerns. Soil
carbon sequestration and coastal carbon sequestration are less understood options. The feasibility
of land-based negative emissions methods for mitigation are uncertain; the IPCC has described
mitigation strategies based on them as risky.Where energy production or CO2-intensive heavy
industries continue to produce waste CO2, the gas can be captured and stored instead of released
to the atmosphere. Although its current use is limited in scale and expensive, carbon capture and
storage (CCS) may be able to play a significant role in limiting CO2 emissions by mid-century.
This technique, in combination with bio-energy (BECCS) can result in net negative emissions:
CO2 is drawn from the atmosphere. It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal
techniques, such as BECCS, will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5 °C.
Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide removal increase the risk of global warming rising
beyond international goals.

Adaptation

Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its
effects". Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread
and irreversible" impacts. More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation,
which can be prohibitively expensive. The capacity and potential for humans to adapt is
unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally
have less. The first two decades of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most
low- and middle-income countries with improved access to basic sanitation and electricity, but
progress is slow. Many countries have implemented adaptation policies. However, there is a
considerable gap between necessary and available finance.Adaptation to sea level rise consists of
avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding and protection. If that fails,
managed retreat may be needed. There are economic barriers for tackling dangerous heat impact.
Avoiding strenuous work or having air conditioning is not possible for everybody. In agriculture,
adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification, erosion control and
genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate. Insurance allows for risk-
sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes. Education, migration and early
warning systems can reduce climate vulnerability.Ecosystems adapt to climate change, a process
that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing connectivity between ecosystems,
species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can also be directly moved.
Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural areas helps build resilience, making it
easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that promote adaptation in ecosystems, also
help humans adapt via ecosystem-based adaptation. For instance, restoration of natural fire
regimes makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving rivers more
space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest
acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate
impacts.There are synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation often
offer short-term benefits, whereas mitigation has longer-term benefits. Increased use of air
conditioning allows people to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand. Compact
urban development may lead to reduced emissions from transport and construction. At the same
time, it may increase the urban heat island effect, leading to higher temperatures and increased
exposure. Increased food productivity has large benefits for both adaptation and mitigation.

Policies and politics


Countries that are most vulnerable to climate change have typically been responsible for a small
share of global emissions. This raises questions about justice and fairness. Climate change is
strongly linked to sustainable development. Limiting global warming makes it easier to achieve
sustainable development goals, such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The
connection is recognised in Sustainable Development Goal 13 which is to "[t]ake urgent action
to combat climate change and its impacts". The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem
protection have synergies with climate mitigation.The geopolitics of climate change is complex.
It has often been framed as a free-rider problem, in which all countries benefit from mitigation
done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a low-carbon
economy themselves. This framing has been challenged. For instance, the benefits of a coal
phase-out to public health and local environments exceed the costs in almost all regions.
Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win economically from switching to clean energy,
causing net exporters to face stranded assets: fossil fuels they cannot sell.

Policy options

A wide range of policies, regulations, and laws are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019,
carbon pricing covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon can be priced with
carbon taxes and emissions trading systems. Direct global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319
billion in 2017, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in. Ending
these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution
deaths. Subsidies could be used to support the transition to clean energy instead. More direct
methods to reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel
standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry. Several countries require utilities to
increase the share of renewables in power production.Policy designed through the lens of climate
justice tries to address human rights issues and social inequality. For instance, wealthy nations
responsible for the largest share of emissions would have to pay poorer countries to adapt. As the
use of fossil fuels is reduced, jobs in the sector are being lost. To achieve a just transition, these
people would need to be retrained for other jobs. Communities with many fossil fuel workers
would need additional investments.
International climate agreements

Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human
interference with the climate system. As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse
gas concentrations are stabilised in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt
naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can be
sustained. The UNFCCC does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for
protocols that do. Global emissions have risen since the UNFCCC was signed. Its yearly
conferences are the stage of global negotiations.The 1997 Kyoto Protocol extended the
UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their
emissions. During the negotiations, the G77 (representing developing countries) pushed for a
mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions, since
developed countries contributed most to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. Per-capita emissions were also still relatively low in developing countries and
developing countries would need to emit more to meet their development needs.The 2009
Copenhagen Accord has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and
was rejected by poorer nations including the G77. Associated parties aimed to limit the global
temperature rise to below 2 °C. The Accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to
developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the
Green Climate Fund. As of 2020, the fund has failed to reach its expected target, and risks a
shrinkage in its funding.In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to
keep global warming well below 2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming
under 1.5 °C. The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission
targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set of procedures was made binding. Countries
have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate these goals every five years. The
Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be financially supported. As of October
2021, 194 states and the European Union have signed the treaty and 191 states and the EU have
ratified or acceded to the agreement.The 1987 Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to
stop emitting ozone-depleting gases, may have been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas
emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so. The 2016 Kigali Amendment
to the Montreal Protocol aims to reduce the emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, a group of
powerful greenhouse gases which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases.
This made the Montreal Protocol a stronger agreement against climate change.

National responses

In 2019, the United Kingdom parliament became the first national government to declare a
climate emergency. Other countries and jurisdictions followed suit. That same year, the
European Parliament declared a "climate and environmental emergency". The European
Commission presented its European Green Deal with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral
by 2050. Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have
committed to become carbon-neutral by 2050, and China by 2060. In 2021, the European
Commission released its “Fit for 55” legislation package, which contains guidelines for the car
industry; all new cars on the European market must be zero-emission vehicles from 2035. While
India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a significant expansion of coal in the
country.As of 2021, based on information from 48 national climate plans, which represent 40%
of the parties to the Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5%
lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming
to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.

Scientific consensus and society


Scientific consensus

There is a near-complete scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused
by human activities. Agreement in recent literature reached over 99%. Older surveys found 90%
to 100% of climate scientists agreeing on humanity's role in causing climate change, based on the
exact question and who responded. No scientific body of national or international standing
disagrees with this view. Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be
taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science academies have
called on world leaders to cut global emissions.Scientific discussion takes place in journal
articles that are peer-reviewed. Scientists assess these every few years in the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change reports. The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is
"unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.

Public awareness

Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s. Due to confusing media
coverage in the early 1990s, people often confounded climate change with other environmental
issues like ozone depletion. In popular culture, the first movie to reach a mass public on the topic
was The Day After Tomorrow in 2004, followed a few years later by the Al Gore documentary
An Inconvenient Truth. Books, stories and films about climate change fall under the genre of
climate fiction.Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public
concern for, and understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some
countries, women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat.
Partisan gaps also exist in many countries, and countries with high CO2 emissions tend to be less
concerned. Views on causes of climate change vary widely between countries. Concern has
increased over time, to the point where a majority of citizens in many countries now express a
high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency. Higher levels of
worry are associated with stronger public support for policies that address climate change.

Denial and misinformation

Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and
misinformation, which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries,
particularly Canada and Australia. The actors behind climate change denial form a well-funded
and relatively coordinated coalition of fossil fuel companies, industry groups, conservative think
tanks, and contrarian scientists. Like the tobacco industry before, the main strategy of these
groups has been to manufacture doubt about scientific data and results. Many who deny, dismiss,
or hold unwarranted doubt about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change are
labelled as "climate change skeptics", which several scientists have noted is a misnomer.There
are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some
acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimise the negative
impacts of climate change. Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a
manufactured controversy: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate
change within the scientific community in order to delay policy changes. Strategies to promote
these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions, and questioning the motives of individual
scientists. An echo chamber of climate-denying blogs and media has further fomented
misunderstanding of climate change.

Protests and lawsuits

Climate protests have risen in popularity in the 2010s. These protests demand that political
leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form of public demonstrations,
fossil fuel divestment, lawsuits and other activities. Prominent demonstrations include the School
Strike for Climate. In this initiative, young people across the globe have been protesting since
2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg. Mass civil
disobedience actions by groups like Extinction Rebellion have protested by disrupting roads and
public transport. Litigation is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action from public
institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and demand
that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change. Lawsuits against
fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for loss and damage.

Discovery
In the 1820s, Joseph Fourier proposed the greenhouse effect to explain why Earth's temperature
was higher than the sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's atmosphere is transparent to
sunlight, so sunlight reaches the surface where it is converted to heat. However, the atmosphere
is not transparent to heat radiating from the surface, and captures some of that heat which warms
the planet. In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the sun is
greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and the effect is even greater with carbon
dioxide. She concluded that "An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high
temperature..." Starting in 1859, John Tyndall established that nitrogen and oxygen—together
totalling 99% of dry air—are transparent to radiated heat. However, water vapour and some
gases (in particular methane and carbon dioxide) absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat
within the atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may
have caused climatic changes in the past, including ice ages.Svante Arrhenius noted that water
vapour in air continuously varied, but the CO2 concentration in air was influenced by long-term
geological processes. At the end of an ice age, warming from increased CO2 levels would
increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a feedback loop. In 1896, he
published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of CO2 levels could have
produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature
increase expected from doubling CO2 to be around 5–6 °C. Other scientists were initially
sceptical and believed the greenhouse effect to be saturated so that adding more CO2 would
make no difference. They thought climate would be self-regulating. From 1938 onwards Guy
Stewart Callendar published evidence that climate was warming and CO2 levels rising, but his
calculations met the same objections.In the 1950s, Gilbert Plass created a detailed computer
model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum. This model predicted
that increasing CO2 levels would cause warming. Around the same time, Hans Suess found
evidence that CO2 levels had been rising, and Roger Revelle showed that the oceans would not
absorb the increase. The two scientists subsequently helped Charles Keeling to begin a record of
continued increase, which has been termed the "Keeling Curve". Scientists alerted the public,
and the dangers were highlighted at James Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the
world's governments, spurred interdisciplinary research.

See also
2020s in environmental history

Anthropocene – proposed new geological time interval in which humans are having significant
geological impact

Global cooling – minority view held by scientists in the 1970s that imminent cooling of the Earth
would take place

References
Explanatory notes

Notes

Sources

IPCC reports

Other peer-reviewed sources

Books, reports and legal documents

Non-technical sources

External links
Met Office: Climate Guide – UK National Weather Service

Global Climate Change Indicators – NOAA

Result of total melting of Polar regions on World – National Geographic


Up-to-the-second assessment of human-induced global warming since the second half of the 19th
century – Oxford University

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