Bosinp 8 CP 7
Bosinp 8 CP 7
Bosinp 8 CP 7
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
LEARNING OUTCOMES
7.1 INTRODUCTION
In the first chapter we have discussed the three important functions of financial
management which were Investment Decisions, Financing Decisions and Dividend
Decisions. So far, we have studied Financing decisions in previous chapters. In this
chapter we will discuss the second important decision area of financial
management which is Investment Decision. Investment decision is concerned with
optimum utilization of fund to maximize the wealth of the organization and in turn
the wealth of its shareholders. Investment decision is very crucial for an
organization to fulfil its objectives; in fact, it generates revenue and ensures long
term existence of the organization. Even the entities which exist not for profit are
also required to make investment decision though not to earn profit but to fulfil its
mission.
As we have seen in the financing decision chapter each rupee of capital raised by
an entity bears some cost, commonly known as cost of capital. It is necessary that
each rupee raised is to be invested in a very prudent manner. It requires a proper
planning for capital, and it is done through a proper budgeting. A proper budgeting
requires all the characteristics of budget. Due to this feature, investment decisions
are very popularly known as Capital Budgeting, which means applying the
principles of budgeting for capital investment.
In simple terms, Capital Budgeting involves: -
➢ Identification of investment projects that are strategic to business’ overall
objectives;
➢ Estimating and evaluating post-tax incremental cash flows for each of the
investment proposals; and
➢ Selection of an investment proposal that maximizes the return to the
investors.
Implement
Planning Evaluation Selection Control Review
ation
(i) Planning: The capital budgeting process begins with the identification of
potential investment opportunities. The opportunity then enters the planning
phase when the potential effect on the firm's fortunes is assessed and the ability
of the management of the firm to exploit the opportunity is determined.
Opportunities having little merit are rejected and promising opportunities are
advanced in the form of a proposal to enter the evaluation phase.
(ii) Evaluation: This phase involves the determination of proposal and its
investments, inflows and outflows. Investment appraisal techniques, ranging
from the simple payback method and accounting rate of return to the more
sophisticated discounted cash flow techniques, are used to appraise the
proposals. The technique selected should be the one that enables the manager
to make the best decision in the light of prevailing circumstances.
(iii) Selection: Considering the returns and risks associated with the individual
projects as well as the cost of capital to the organisation, the organisation will
choose among projects so as to maximise shareholders’ wealth.
(iv) Implementation: When the final selection is made, the firm must acquire the
necessary funds, purchase the assets, and begin the implementation of the
project.
(v) Control: The progress of the project is monitored with the aid of feedback
reports. These reports will include capital expenditure progress reports,
performance reports comparing actual performance against plans set and post
completion audits.
(vi) Review: When a project terminates, or even before, the organisation should
review the entire project to explain its success or failure. This phase may have
implication for firms planning and evaluation procedures. Further, the review
may produce ideas for new proposals to be undertaken in the future.
existence
Diversification decisions
Decisions
Mutualy exclusive
decisions
On the basis of
Accept-Reject decisions
decision situation
Contingent decisions
because of the economic life of the plant or machinery is over or because it has
become technologically outdated. The former decision is known as replacement
decisions and latter is known as modernisation decisions. Both replacement and
modernisation decisions are called cost reduction decisions.
(ii) Expansion decisions: Existing successful firms may experience growth in
demand of their product line. If such firms experience shortage or delay in the
delivery of their products due to inadequate production facilities, they may
consider proposal to add capacity to existing product line.
(iii) Diversification decisions: These decisions require evaluation of proposals to
diversify into new product lines, new markets etc. for reducing the risk of failure
by dealing in different products or by operating in several markets.
Both expansion and diversification decisions are called revenue expansion
decisions.
7.4.2 On the basis of decision situation
The capital budgeting decisions on the basis of decision situation are classified as
follows:
(i) Mutually exclusive decisions: The decisions are said to be mutually exclusive if
two or more alternative proposals are such that the acceptance of one proposal
will exclude the acceptance of the other alternative proposals. For instance, a
firm may be considering proposal to install a semi-automatic or highly automatic
machine. If the firm installs a semi-automatic machine it excludes the acceptance
of proposal to install highly automatic machine.
(ii) Accept-reject decisions: The accept-reject decisions occur when proposals are
independent and do not compete with each other. The firm may accept or reject
a proposal on the basis of a minimum return on the required investment. All
those proposals which give a higher return than certain desired rate of return
are accepted and the rest are rejected.
(iii) Contingent decisions: The contingent decisions are dependable proposals. The
investment in one proposal requires investment in one or more other proposals.
For example, if a company accepts a proposal to set up a factory in remote area
it may have to invest in infrastructure also e.g. building of roads, houses for
employees etc.
SECTION 1
* Being non- cash expenditure depreciation has been added back while calculating
the cash flow.
As we can see in the above table that due to depreciation under the second
scenario, a tax saving of ` 0.45 crore (` 1.50 – ` 1.05) was made. This is called tax
shield. The tax shield is considered while estimating cash flows.
Amount Amount
Cost of new Asset(s) xxx
Add: Installation/Set-Up Costs xxx
Add: Investment in Working Capital xxx xxx
Initial Cash Outflow xxx
(ii) If decision is related to replacement decision then initial cash outflow shall be
calculated as follows:
Amount Amount
Cost of new Asset(s) xxx
Add: Add: Installation/Set-Up Costs xxx
Add/(less): Increase (Decrease) in net Working xxx
Capital level
Less: Net Proceeds from sale of old assets (xxx)
(If it is a replacement situation)
Add/(less): Tax expense (saving/ loss) due to sale xxx xxx
of Old Asset
(If it is a replacement situation)
Initial Cash Outflow xxx
(b) Interim Cash Flows: After making the initial cash outflow that is necessary to
begin implementing a project, the firm hopes to get benefit from the future cash
inflows generated by the project. As mentioned earlier calculation of cash flows
Amount Amount
Profit after Tax (PAT) xxx
Add: Non-Cash Expenses (e.g. xxx
Depreciation)
Add/ (less): Net decrease (increase) in xxx xxx
Working Capital
Interim net cash flow for the xxx
period
(ii) Similarly, interim cash flow in case of replacement decision shall be calculated as
follows:
Amount Amount
Net increase (decrease) in Operating xxx
Revenue
Add/ (less): Net decrease (increase) in operating xxx
expenses
Net change in income before taxes xxx
Add/ (less): Net decrease (increase) in taxes xxx
Net change in income after taxes xxx
Add/ (less): Net decrease (increase) in xxx
depreciation charges
Incremental net cash flow for the xxx
period
(c) Terminal-Year Incremental Net Cash Flow: We now pay attention to the
Net Cash Flow in the terminal year of the project. For the purpose of Terminal Year
we will first calculate the incremental net cash flow for the period as calculated in
point (b) above and further to it we will make adjustments in order to arrive at
Terminal-Year Incremental Net Cash flow as follows: -
Amount Amount
`
Purchase Price of Machinery 1,00,000
Less: Depreciation @20% for year 1 20,000
WDV at the end of year 1 80,000
Less: Depreciation @20% for year 2 16,000
WDV at the end of year 2 64,000
Less: Depreciation @20% for year 3 12,800
WDV at the end of year 3 51,200
Less: Depreciation @20% for year 4 10,240
WDV at the end of year 4 40,960
(i) Case 1: There is no other asset in the Block: When there is one asset in the
block and block shall cease to exist at the end of 5thyear no deprecation shall be
charged in this year and tax benefit/loss on Short Term Capital Loss/ Gain shall
be calculated as follows:
`
WDV at the beginning of year 5 40,960
Less: Sale value of Machine 10,000
Short Term Capital Loss 30,960
Tax Benefit on STCL @ 30% 9,288
(ii) Case 2: More than one asset exists in the Block: When more than one asset
exists in the block and deprecation shall be charged in the terminal year (5th year)
in which asset is sold. The WDV on which depreciation be charged shall be
calculated by deducting sale value from the WDV in the beginning of the year.
Tax benefit on Depreciation shall be calculated as follows:
`
WDV at the beginning of year 5 40,960
Less: Sale value of Machine 10,000
WDV 30,960
Depreciation @20% 6,192
Tax Benefit on Depreciation @ 30% 1,858
Now suppose if in above two cases sale value of machine is ` 50,000, then no
depreciation shall be provided in case 2 and tax loss on Short Term Capital Gain in
Case 1 shall be computed as follows:
`
WDV at the beginning of year 5 40,960
Less: Sale value of Machine 50,000
Short Term Capital Gain 9,040
Tax Loss on STCG @ 30% 2,712
Example- 3
Suppose XYZ Ltd.’s expected profit for the forthcoming 4 years is as follows:
ILLUSTRATION 1
ABC Ltd is evaluating the purchase of a new machinery with a depreciable base of
` 1,00,000; expected economic life of 4 years and change in earnings before taxes
and depreciation of ` 45,000 in year 1, ` 30,000 in year 2, ` 25,000 in year 3 and
` 35,000 in year 4. Assume straight-line depreciation and a 20% tax rate. You are
required to COMPUTE relevant cash flows.
SOLUTION
Amount (in `)
Years
1 2 3 4
Earnings before tax and depreciation 45,000 30,000 25,000 35,000
Less: Depreciation (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000)
Earnings before tax 20,000 5,000 0 10,000
Less: Tax @20% (4,000) (1,000) 0 (2,000)
16,000 4,000 0 8,000
Add: Depreciation 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
Net Cash flow 41,000 29,000 25,000 33,000
Working Note:
Depreciation = ` 1,00,000 4 = ` 25,000
SECTION 2
Payback Period
Traditional or Non
Discounting
Accounting Rate of Return
(ARR)
Time adjusted or
Discounted Cash Flows Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Discounted Payback
Organizations may use any one or more of capital investment evaluation techniques;
some organizations use different methods for different types of projects while others
may use multiple methods for evaluating each project. These techniques have been
discussed below – net present value, profitability index, internal rate of return, modified
internal rate of return, payback period, and accounting (book) rate of return.
Example- 4
Suppose a project costs ` 20,00,000 and yields annually a profit of ` 3,00,000 after
depreciation @ 12½% (straight line method) but before tax 50%. The first step
would be to calculate the cash inflow from this project. The cash inflow is ` 4,00,000
calculated as follows:
Particulars (`)
Profit before tax 3,00,000
Less: Tax @ 50% (1,50,000)
Profit after tax 1,50,000
Add: Depreciation written off 2,50,000
Total cash inflow 4,00,000
While calculating cash inflow, depreciation is added back to profit after tax since it
does not result in cash outflow. The cash generated from a project therefore is
equal to profit after tax plus depreciation. The payback period of the project shall
be:
` 20,00,000
Payback period = = 5 Years
4,00,000
Some Accountants calculate payback period after discounting the cash flows by a
predetermined rate and the payback period so calculated is called, ‘Discounted
payback period’ (discussed later on).
2. When the annual cash inflows are not uniform, the cumulative cash inflow
from operations must be calculated for each year. The payback period shall be
corresponding period when total of cumulative cash inflows is equal to the initial
capital investment. However, if exact sum does not match then the period in which
it lies should be identified. After that we need to compute the fraction of the year.
This method can be understood with the help of an example
Example- 5
Suppose XYZ Ltd. is analyzing a project requiring an initial cash outlay of ` 2,00,000
and expected to generate cash inflows as follows:
In 3 years total cash inflows equal to initial cash outlay. Hence, payback period is 3
years.
Suppose if in above example the initial outlay is ` 2,05,000 then payback period
shall be computed as follows:
the lifetime of the project under consideration. Further ARR can be calculated in a
number of ways as shown in the following example.
Example- 7
Suppose Times Ltd. is going to invest in a project a sum of ` 3,00,000 having a life
span of 3 years. Salvage value of machine is ` 90,000. The profit before depreciation
for each year is ` 1,50,000.
The Profit after Tax and value of Investment in the Beginning and at the End of each
year shall be as follows:
Beginning End
1 1,50,000 70,000 80,000 3,00,000 2,30,000
2 1,50,000 70,000 80,000 2,30,000 1,60,000
3 1,50,000 70,000 80,000 1,60,000 90,000
Year
1 80,000
= 26.67%
3,00,000
2 80,000
= 34.78%
2,30,000
3 80,000
=50%
1,60,000
26.67%+34.78%+50.00%
Average ARR = =37.15%
3
Advantages of ARR
➢ This technique uses readily available data that is routinely generated for
financial reports and does not require any special procedures to generate data.
➢ This method may also mirror the method used to evaluate performance on the
operating results of an investment and management performance. Using the
same procedure in both decision-making and performance evaluation ensures
consistency.
➢ Calculation of the accounting rate of return method considers all net incomes
over the entire life of the project and provides a measure of the investment’s
profitability.
Limitations of ARR
➢ The accounting rate of return technique, like the payback period technique,
ignores the time value of money and considers the value of all cash flows to
be equal.
➢ The technique uses accounting numbers that are dependent on the
organization’s choice of accounting procedures, and different accounting
procedures, e.g., depreciation methods, can lead to substantially different
amounts for an investment’s net income and book values.
➢ The method uses net income rather than cash flows; while net income is a
useful measure of profitability, the net cash flow is a better measure of an
investment’s performance.
➢ Furthermore, inclusion of only the book value of the invested asset ignores the
fact that a project can require commitments of working capital and other
outlays that are not included in the book value of the project.
ILLUSTRATION 2
A project requiring an investment of ` 10,00,000 and it yields profit after tax and
depreciation which is as follows:
4 1,30,000
5 80,000
Total 4,60,000
Suppose further that at the end of the 5 th year, the plant and machinery of the project
can be sold for ` 80,000. DETERMINE Average Rate of Return.
SOLUTION
In this case the rate of return can be calculated as follows:
Total Profit÷No. of years
× 100
Average investment / Initial Investment
(a) If Initial Investment is considered then,
This rate is compared with the rate expected on other projects, had the same
funds been invested alternatively in those projects. Sometimes, the management
compares this rate with the minimum rate (called-cut off rate). For example,
management may decide that they will not undertake any project which has an
average annual yield after tax less than 20%. Any capital expenditure proposal
which has an average annual yield of less than 20% will be automatically rejected.
(b) If Average investment is considered, then,
92,000
= × 100 = 92,000 × 100 = 17.04%
Average investment 5, 40,000
Where,
Average Investment= ½ (Initial investment – Salvage value) + Salvage value
= ½ (10,00,000 – 80,000) + 80,000
= 4,60,000 + 80,000 = 5,40,000
and Profitability Index (PI). First let us discuss about Determination of Discount rate
and it will be followed by the three techniques.
Determining Discount Rate
Theoretically, the discount rate or desired rate of return on an investment is the
rate of return the firm would have earned by investing the same funds in the best
available alternative investment that has the same risk. Determining the best
alternative opportunity available is difficult in practical terms so rather than using
the true opportunity cost, organizations often use an alternative measure for the
desired rate of return. An organization may establish a minimum rate of return that
all capital projects must meet; this minimum could be based on an industry average
or the cost of other investment opportunities. Many organizations choose to use
the overall cost of capital or Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) that an
organization has incurred in raising funds or expects to incur in raising the funds
needed for an investment.
7.9.1 Net Present Value Technique (NPV)
The net present value technique is a discounted cash flow method that considers
the time value of money in evaluating capital investments. An investment has cash
flows throughout its life, and it is assumed that an amount of cash flow in the early
years of an investment is worth more than an amount of cash flow in a later year.
The net present value method uses a specified discount rate to bring all subsequent
cash inflows after the initial investment to their present values (the time of the
initial investment is year 0).
The net present value of a project is the amount, in current value of amount, the
investment earns after paying cost of capital in each period.
Net present value = Present value of net cash inflow - Total net initial investment
Since it might be possible that some additional investment may also be required
during the life time of the project then appropriate formula shall be:
Net present value = Present value of cash inflows - Present value of cash outflows
It can be expressed as below:
C C C C
NPV = 1 + 2 2 + 3 3 +......+ n n -I
(1+k) (1+k) (1+k) (1+k)
n Ct
NPV = -I
t =1 (1+k)t
Where,
C=Cash flow of various years
K = discount rate
N=Life of the project
I = Investment
Steps to calculating Net Present Value (NPV):
The steps to calculating net present value are: -
1. Determine the net cash inflow in each year of the investment
2. Select the desired rate of return or discounting rate or Weighted Average Cost
of Capital.
3. Find the discount factor for each year based on the desired rate of return
selected.
4. Determine the present values of the net cash flows by multiplying the cash flows
by respective discount factors of respective period called Present Value (PV) of
Cash flows
5. Total the amounts of all PVs of Cash Flows
Decision Rule:
The NPV method can be used to select between mutually exclusive projects; the
one with the higher NPV should be selected
ILLUSTRATION 3
COMPUTE the net present value for a project with a net investment of ` 1,00,000 and
net cash flows for year one is ` 55,000; for year two is ` 80,000 and for year three is
` 15,000. Further, the company’s cost of capital is 10%?
[PVIF @ 10% for three years are 0.909, 0.826 and 0.751]
SOLUTION
SOLUTION
Calculation of net present value:
Advantages of NPV
➢ NPV method takes into account the time value of money.
➢ The whole stream of cash flows is considered.
➢ The net present value can be seen as the addition to the wealth of shareholders.
The criterion of NPV is thus in conformity with basic financial objectives.
➢ The NPV uses the discounted cash flows i.e., expresses cash flows in terms of
current rupees. The NPVs of different projects therefore can be compared. It
implies that each project can be evaluated independent of others on its own
merit.
Limitations of NPV
➢ It involves difficult calculations.
➢ The application of this method necessitates forecasting cash flows and the
discount rate. Thus accuracy of NPV depends on accurate estimation of these
two factors which may be quite difficult in practice.
The decision under NPV method is based on absolute measure. It ignores the
difference in initial outflows, size of different proposals etc. while evaluating
mutually exclusive projects.
7.9.2 Profitability Index /Desirability Factor/Present Value Index
Method (PI)
The students may have seen how with the help of discounted cash flow technique,
the two alternative proposals for capital expenditure can be compared. In certain
cases we have to compare a number of proposals each involving different amounts
of cash inflows.
One of the methods of comparing such proposals is to work out what is known as
the ‘Desirability factor’, or ‘Profitability index’ or ‘Present Value Index Method’.
Mathematically:
The Profitability Index (PI) is calculated as below:
Sum of discounted cash in flows
Profitability Index (PI)=
Initial cash outlay or Total discounted cash outflow (as the case may)
Decision Rule:
It would be seen that in absolute terms project 3 gives the highest cash inflows yet
its desirability factor is low. This is because the outflow is also very high. The
Desirability/ Profitability Index factor helps us in ranking various projects .
Since PI is an extension of NPV it has same advantages and limitation.
Advantages of PI
➢ The method also uses the concept of time value of money.
➢ In the PI method, since the present value of cash inflows is divided by the present
value of cash outflow, it is a relative measure of a project’s profitability.
Limitations of PI
➢ Profitability index fails as a guide in resolving capital rationing where projects are
indivisible.
➢ Once a single large project with high NPV is selected, possibility of accepting
several small projects which together may have higher NPV than the single
project is excluded.
➢ Also situations may arise where a project with a lower profitability index selected
may generate cash flows in such a way that another project can be taken up one
or two years later, the total NPV in such case being more than the one with a
project with highest Profitability Index.
The Profitability Index approach thus cannot be used indiscriminately but all
other type of alternatives of projects will have to be worked out.
7.9.3 Internal Rate of Return Method (IRR)
The internal rate of return method considers the time value of money, the initial
cash investment, and all cash flows from the investment. But unlike the net present
value method, the internal rate of return method does not use the desired rate of
return but estimates the discount rate that makes the present value of subsequent
cash inflows equal to the initial investment. This discount rate is called IRR.
IRR Definition: Internal rate of return for an investment proposal is the discount
rate that equates the present value of the expected cash inflows with the
initial cash outflow.
This IRR is then compared to a criterion rate of return that can be the organization’s
desired rate of return for evaluating capital investments.
Calculation of IRR: The procedures for computing the internal rate of return vary
with the pattern of net cash flows over the useful life of an investment.
Scenario 1: For an investment with uniform cash flows over its life, the following
equation is used:
Step 1: Total initial investment =Annual cash inflow × Annuity discount factor of
the discount rate for the number of periods of the investment’s useful life
If A is the annuity discount factor, then
Total initial cash disbursements and commitments for the investment
A=
Annual (equal) cash inflows from the investment
Step 2: Once A is calculated, the interest rate corresponding to project’s life, the
value of A is searched in Present Value Annuity Factor (PVAF) table. If exact value
of ‘A’ is found the respective interest rate shall be IRR. However, it rarely happens
therefore we follow the method discussed below:
Step 1: Compute approximate payback period also called fake payback period.
Step 2: Locate this value in PVAF table corresponding to period of life of the project.
The value may be falling between two discounting rates.
Step 3: Discount cash flows using these two discounting rates.
Step 4: Use following Interpolation Formula:
NPV at LR
LR + ×(HR -LR)
NPV at LR - NPV at HR
Or
PV at LR - CI
LR+ ×(HR -LR)
PV at LR - PV at HR
Where,
LR = Lower Rate
HR = Higher Rate
CI = Capital Investment
ILLUSTRATION 6
A Ltd. is evaluating a project involving an outlay of ` 10,00,000 resulting in an annual
cash inflow of ` 2,50,000 for 6 years. Assuming salvage value of the project is zero;
DETERMINE the IRR of the project.
SOLUTION
First of all, we shall find an approximation of the payback period:
(`) 10,00,000
=4
(`) 2,50,000
Now we shall search this figure in the PVAF table corresponding to 6-year row.
The value 4 lies between values 4.111 and 3.998 correspondingly discounting rates
are 12% and 13% respectively.
NPV @ 12%
27,750
= 12% + = 12.978%
28,250
IRR = 12.978%
Scenario 2: When the cash inflows are not uniform over the life of the investment,
the determination of the discount rate can involve trial and error and interpolation
between discounting rates as mentioned above. However, IRR can also be found
out by using following procedure:
Step 1: Discount the cash flow at any random rate say 10%, 15% or 20% randomly.
Step 2: If resultant NPV is negative then discount cash flows again by lower
discounting rate to make NPV positive. Conversely, if resultant NPV is positive then
again discount cash flows by higher discounting rate to make NPV negative.
Step 3: Use following Interpolation Formula:
NPV at LR
=LR + ×(HR -LR)
NPV at LR - NPV at HR
Where
LR = Lower Rate
HR = Higher Rate
ILLUSTRATION 7
CALCULATE the internal rate of return of an investment of ` 1,36,000 which yields
the following cash inflows:
4 30,000
5 20,000
SOLUTION
Let us discount cash flows by 10%.
The present value at 10% comes to ` 1,38,280, which is more than the initial
investment. Therefore, a higher discount rate is suggested, say, 12%.
Year Cash Inflows (`) Discounting factor at 12% Present Value (`)
1 30,000 0.893 26,790
2 40,000 0.797 31,880
3 60,000 0.712 42,720
4 30,000 0.636 19,080
5 20,000 0.567 11,340
Total present value 1,31,810
The internal rate of return is, thus, more than 10% but less than 12%. The exact rate
can be obtained by interpolation:
NPV at LR
IRR =LR + ×(HR -LR)
NPV at LR - NPV at HR
`2,280
=10+ ×(12- 10)
`2,280 - (-4,190)
`2,280
=10+ ×(12-10) = 10 + 0.704
`6, 470
IRR = 10.704%
ILLUSTRATION 8
A company proposes to install machine involving a capital cost of ` 3,60,000. The
life of the machine is 5 years and its salvage value at the end of the life is nil. The
machine will produce the net operating income after depreciation of ` 68,000 per
annum. The company's tax rate is 45%.
The Net Present Value factors for 5 years are as under:
Discounting rate 14 15 16 17 18
Cumulative factor 3.43 3.35 3.27 3.20 3.13
You are required to COMPUTE the internal rate of return of the proposal.
SOLUTION
Computation of Cash inflow per annum (`)
Net operating income per annum 68,000
Less: Tax @ 45% (30,600)
Profit after tax 37,400
Add: Depreciation (` 3,60,000 / 5 years) 72,000
Cash inflow 1,09,400
The IRR of the investment can be found as follows:
NPV = −` 3,60,000 + ` 1,09,400 (PVAF5, r) = 0
`3,60,000
or PVAF5,r (Cumulative factor) = = 3.29
`1,09, 400
6,490
IRR = 15+ (16-15) =15+0.74 = 15.74%.
6,490+2,262
Acceptance Rule
The use of IRR, as a criterion to accept capital investment decision involves a
comparison of IRR with the required rate of return known as cut-off rate. The
project should the accepted if IRR is greater than cut-off rate. If IRR is equal to cut-
off rate the firm is indifferent. If IRR less than cut off rate the project is rejected.
Thus,
As long as the cost of capital is greater than the crossover rate of 7%, (1) NPVS is
larger than NPVL and (2) IRR S exceeds IRR L. Hence, if the cut- off rate or the cost of
capital is greater than 7%, both the methods shall lead to selection of project S.
However, if the cost of capital is less than 7%, the NPV method ranks Project L
higher, but the IRR method indicates that the Project S is better.
As can be seen above, mutually exclusive projects can create problem with the IRR
technique as IRR is expressed in percentage and does not take into account the scale
of investment or the quantum of money earned.
Let us consider another example of two mutually exclusive projects A and B with
the following details:
Example- 8
Cash flows
3 4,00,000 6,00,000
4 50,000 6,00,000
In this case Project A has the larger investment and also has a higher IRR as shown
below,
However, in case the relevant discounting factor is taken as 5%, the NPV of the two
projects provides a different picture as follows;
Project A Project B
Year (`) r= 5% PV (`) (`) r= 5% PV (`)
0 (9,00,000) 1.0 (9,00,000) (8,00,000) 1.0 (8,00,000)
1 7,00,000 0.9524 6,66,680 62,500 0.9524 59,525
2 6,00,000 0.9070 5,44,200 6,00,000 0.9070 5,44,200
3 4,00,000 0.8638 3,45,520 6,00,000 0.8638 5,18,280
4 50,000 0.8227 41,135 6,00,000 0.8227 4,93,620
6,97,535 8,15,625
As may be seen from the above, Project B should be the one to be selected even
though its IRR is lower than that of Project A. This decision shall need to be taken
in spite of the fact that Project A has a larger investment coupled with a higher IRR
as compared with Project B. This type of anomalous situation arises due to
reinvestment assumptions implicit in the two evaluation methods of NPV and
IRR.
The cumulative total of discounted cash flows after ten years is ` 30,114. Therefore,
our discounted payback is approximately 10 years as opposed to 5 years under
simple payback. It should be noted that as the required rate of return increases,
the distortion between simple payback and discounted payback grows.
NPV
In such situations if the cost of capital is less than the two IRR’s, a decision can be
made easily, however otherwise the IRR decision rule may turn out to be misleading
as the project should only be invested if the cost of capital is between IRR 1and IRR2..
To understand the concept of multiple IRR it is necessary to understand the implicit
re-investment assumption in both NPV and IRR techniques.
Advantages of IRR
➢ This method makes use of the concept of time value of money.
➢ All the cash flows in the project are considered.
➢ IRR is easier to use as instantaneous understanding of desirability can be
determined by comparing it with the cost of capital
➢ IRR technique helps in achieving the objective of maximisation of
shareholder’s wealth.
Limitations of IRR
➢ The calculation process is tedious if there is more than one cash outflow
interspersed between the cash inflows; there can be multiple IRR, the
interpretation of which is difficult.
➢ The IRR approach creates a peculiar situation if we compare two projects with
different inflow/outflow patterns.
➢ It is assumed that under this method all the future cash inflows of a proposal are
reinvested at a rate equal to the IRR. It ignores a firm’s ability to re-invest in
portfolio of different rates.
➢ If mutually exclusive projects are considered as investment options which
have considerably different cash outlays. A project with a larger fund
commitment but lower IRR contributes more in terms of absolute NPV and
increases the shareholders’ wealth. In such situation decisions based only on
IRR criterion may not be correct.
7.9.7 Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)
As mentioned earlier, there are several limitations attached with the concept of the
conventional Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The MIRR addresses some of these
deficiencies e.g., it eliminates multiple IRR rates; it addresses the reinvestment rate
issue and produces results which are consistent with the Net Present Value method.
This method is also called Terminal Value method.
Under this method, all cash flows, apart from the initial investment, are brought to
the terminal value using an appropriate discount rate (usually the Cost of Capital).
This results in a single stream of cash inflow in the terminal year. The MIRR is
obtained by assuming a single outflow in the zeroth year and the terminal
cash inflow as mentioned above. The discount rate which equates the present
value of the terminal cash inflow to the zeroth year outflow is called the MIRR.
The decision criterion of MIRR is same as IRR i.e. you accept an investment if MIRR is
larger than required rate of return and reject if it is lower than the required rate of return.
ILLUSTRATION 9
An investment of ` 1,36,000 yields the following cash inflows (profits before
depreciation but after tax). DETERMINE MIRR considering 8% as cost of capital.
Year `
1 30,000
2 40,000
3 60,000
4 30,000
5 20,000
1,80,000
SOLUTION
Year 0 – Cash-outflow ` 1,36,000
The MIRR is calculated on the basis of investing the inflows at the cost of capital. The
table below shows the value of the inflows if they are immediately reinvested at 8%.
* Investment of ` 1 at the end of the year 1 is reinvested for 4 years (at the end of
5 years) shall become 1(1.08) 4= 1.3605. Similarly, reinvestment rate factor for
remaining years shall be calculated. Please note investment at the end of 5 th year
shall be reinvested for zero year hence reinvestment rate factor shall be 1.00.
The total cash outflow in year 0 (` 1,36,000) is compared with the possible inflow
1,36,000
at year 5 and the resulting figure of = 0.6367 is the discount factor in year
2,13,587
5. By looking at the year 5 row in the present value tables, you will see that this
gives a return of 9%. This means that the ` 2,13,587 received in year 5 is equivalent
7.9.8 Comparison of Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return Methods
Similarity
➢ Both the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) methods are
discounted cash flow methods which consider the time value of money.
➢ Both the techniques consider all cash flows over the expected useful life of the
investment.
7.9.9 Different conclusion in the following scenarios
There are circumstances/scenarios under which the net present value method and
the internal rate of return methods will reach different conclusions. Let’s discuss
these scenarios:-
Scenario 1 –Scale or Size Disparity
Being IRR a relative measure and NPV an absolute measure in case of disparity
in scale or size both may give contradicting ranking. This can be understood with
the help of following illustration:
ILLUSTRATION 10
Suppose there are two Project A and Project B are under consideration. The cash flows
associated with these projects are as follows:
Year Project A Project B
0 (1,00,000) (3,00,000)
1 50,000 1,40,000
2 60,000 1,90,000
3 40,000 1,00,000
Assuming Cost of Capital equal to 10%, IDENTIFY which project should be accepted
as per NPV Method and IRR Method.
SOLUTION
Net Present Value (NPV) of Projects:
Since by discounting cash flows at 20% we are getting values far from zero.
Therefore, let us discount cash flows using 25% discounting rate.
The internal rate of return is, thus, more than 20% but less than 25%. The exact rate
can be obtained by interpolation:
6, 450 6, 450
IRRA = 20%+ ×(25% -20%) =20% +
× 5% = 24.26%
6, 450 - (1,120) 7,570
6,380 6,380
IRRB = 20%+ ×(25% -20%) =20% +
×5% = 21.48%
6,380 - (15,200) 21,580
Overall Position
Project A Project B
NPV @ 10% 25,050 59,300
IRR 24.26% 21.48%
Assuming Cost of Capital be 10%, IDENTIFY which project should be accepted as per
NPV Method and IRR Method.
SOLUTION
Net Present Value of Projects
Since by discounting cash flows at 20% we are getting value of Project X is positive
and value of Project Y is negative. Therefore, let us discount cash flows of Project
X using 25% discounting rate and Project Y using discount rate of 1
Overall Position
Project A Project B
NPV @ 10% 51,950 53,350
IRR 24.87% 17.60%
ILLUSTRATION 12
Suppose MVA Ltd. is considering two Project A and Project B for investment. The cash
flows associated with these projects are as follows:
Assuming Cost of Capital equal to 12%, ANALYSE which project should be accepted
as per NPV Method and IRR Method?
SOLUTION
Net Present Value of Projects
Since, IRR of project A shall be 50% as NPV is very small. Further, by discounting
cash flows at 50% we are getting NPV of Project B negative, let us discount cash
flows of Project B using 15% discounting rate.
Overall Position
Project A Project B
SOLUTION
Computation of NPVs per ` 1 of Investment and Ranking of the Projects
(i) Replacement Chain (Common Life) Method: Since the life of the Project A
is 6 years and Project B is 3 years to equalize lives we can have second opportunity
of investing in project B after one time investing. The position of cash flows in such
situation shall be as follows:
NPV of extended life of 6 years of Project B shall be ` 8,82,403 and IRR of 25.20%.
Accordingly, with extended life NPV of Project B it appears to be more attractive.
(ii) Equivalent Annualized Criterion: The method discussed above has one
drawback when we have to compare two projects one has a life of 3 years and other
has 5 years. In such case the above method shall require analysis of a period of 15
years i.e. common multiple of these two values. The simple solution to this problem
is use of Equivalent Annualised Criterion involving following steps:
(a) Compute NPV using the WACC or discounting rate.
(b) Compute Present Value Annuity Factor (PVAF) of discounting factor used above
for the period of each project.
(c) Divide NPV computed under step (a) by PVAF as computed under step (b) and
compare the values.
Accordingly, for proposal under consideration:
Project A Project B
NPV @ 12% ` 6,49,094 ` 5,15,488
PVAF @12% 4.112 2.402
Equivalent Annualized Criterion ` 1,57,854 ` 2,14,608
ILLUSTRATION 15
Alpha Company is considering the following investment projects:
(iii) IRR
(iv) NPV
Project A:
at 10% -10,000+10,000×0.909 = -910
at 30% -10,000+10,000×0.769 = -2,310
Project B:
at 10% -10,000+7,500(0.909+0.826) = +3,013
at 30% -10,000+7,500(0.769+0.592)= +208
Project C:
at 10% -10,000+2,000×0.909+4,000×0.826+12,000×0.751= +4,134
at 30% -10,000+2,000×0.769+4,000×0.592+12,000×0.455 =-633
Project D:
at 10% -10,000+10,000×0.909+3,000×(0.826+0.751) =+ 3,821
at 30% -10,000+10,000×0.769+3,000×(0.592+0.455) = + 831
Ranks
Projects PBP ARR IRR NPV NPV
(10%) (30%)
A 1 4 4 4 4
B 2 2 2 3 2
C 3 1 3 1 3
D 1 3 1 2 1
(b) Payback and ARR are theoretically unsound method for choosing between the
investment projects. Between the two time-adjusted (DCF) investment criteria,
NPV and IRR, NPV gives consistent results. If the projects are independent (and
there is no capital rationing), either IRR or NPV can be used since the same set
of projects will be accepted by any of the methods. In the present case, except
Project A all the three projects should be accepted if the discount rate is 10%.
Only Projects B and D should be undertaken if the discount rate is 30%.
If it is assumed that the projects are mutually exclusive, then under the
assumption of 30% discount rate, the choice is between B and D (A and C are
unprofitable). Both criteria IRR and NPV give the same results – D is the best.
Under the assumption of 10% discount rate, ranking according to IRR and NPV
conflict (except for Project A). If the IRR rule is followed, Project D should be
accepted. But the NPV rule tells that Project C is the best. The NPV rule generally
gives consistent results in conformity with the wealth maximization principle.
Therefore, Project C should be accepted following the NPV rule.
ILLUSTRATION 16
The expected cash flows of three projects are given below. The cost of capital is 10
per cent.
(a) CALCULATE the payback period, net present value, internal rate of return and
accounting rate of return of each project.
(b) IDENTIFY the rankings of the projects by each of the four methods.
(figures in ‘000)
SOLUTION
(a) Payback Period Method:
A = 5 + (500/900) = 5.56 years
B = 5 + (500/1,200) = 5.42 years
C = 2 + (1,000/2,000) = 2.5 years
Net Present Value Method:
NPVA = (− 5,000) + (9006.145) = (5,000) + 5,530.5 = ` 530.5
NPVB is calculated as follows:
Year Cash flow (`) 10% discount factor Present value (`)
0 (5000) 1.000 (5,000)
1 2000 0.909 1,818
2 2000 0.826 1,652
3 2000 0.751 1,502
4 1000 0.683 683
655
IRRA = 12+ 85
85+116.60 ×(13-12) =12+0.42
IRRA = 12.42%.
Project B
IRRB
Project C
IRRC
(11,500 − 5,000)
ARRB: Average accounting profit = = ` 650
10
(650 ×100)
ARRB = = 26 per cent
2,500
(7,000 − 5,000)
ARRC: Average accounting profit = = ` 500
4
(500 ×100)
ARRC = = 20 per cent
2,500
Project A B C
Payback (years) 5.5 5.4 2.5
NPV (`) 530.50 1,591 655
IRR (%) 12.42 15.94 16.52
ARR (%) 16 26 20
Comparison of Rankings
SUMMARY
Capital budgeting is the process of evaluating and selecting long-term
investments that are in line with the goal of investor’s wealth maximization.
The capital budgeting decisions are important, crucial and critical business
decisions due to substantial expenditure involved; long period for the recovery
of benefits; irreversibility of decisions and the complexity involved in capital
investment decisions.
One of the most important tasks in capital budgeting is estimating future cash
flows for a project. The final decision we make at the end of the capital budgeting
process is no better than the accuracy of our cash-flow estimates.
Tax payments like other payments must be properly deducted in deriving the
cash flows. That is, cash flows must be defined in post-tax terms.
There are a number of capital budgeting techniques available for appraisal of
investment proposals and can be classified as traditional (non-discounted) and
time-adjusted (discounted).
The most common traditional capital budgeting techniques are Payback Period
and Accounting (Book) Rate of Return.
Total initial capital investment
Payback period =
Annual expected after - tax net cash flow
(c) 60%
(d) 75%
11. Assume cash outflow equals ` 1,20,000 followed by cash inflows of ` 25,000 per
year for 8 years and a cost of capital of 11%. What is the Net present value?
(a) (` 38,214)
(b) ` 9,653
(c) ` 8,653
(d) ` 38,214
12. What is the Internal rate of return for a project having cash flows of ` 40,000 per
year for 10 years and a cost of ` 2,26,009?
(a) 8%
(b) 9%
(c) 10%
(d) 12%
13. While evaluating investments, the release of working capital at the end of the
projects life should be considered as,
(a) Cash in flow
(b) Cash out flow
(c) Having no effect upon the capital budgeting decision
(d) None of the above.
14. Capital rationing refers to a situation where,
(a) Funds are restricted and the management has to choose from amongst
available alternative investments.
(b) Funds are unlimited and the management has to decide how to allocate
them to suitable projects.
(c) Very few feasible investment proposals are available with the
management.
(d) None of the above.
2. Lockwood Limited wants to replace its old machine with a new automatic
machine. Two models A and B are available at the same cost of ` 5 lakhs each.
Salvage value of the old machine is ` 1 lakh. The utilities of the existing machine
can be used if the company purchases A. Additional cost of utilities to be
purchased in that case are ` 1 lakh. If the company purchases B then all the
existing utilities will have to be replaced with new utilities costing ` 2 lakhs. The
salvage value of the old utilities will be ` 0.20 lakhs. The earnings after taxation
are expected to be:
The targeted return on capital is 15%. You are required to (i) COMPUTE, for the
two machines separately, net present value, discounted payback period and
desirability factor and (ii) STATE which of the machines is to be selected?
3. Hindlever Company is considering a new product line to supplement its range of
products. It is anticipated that the new product line will involve cash investments
of ` 7,00,000 at time 0 and ` 10,00,000 in year 1. After-tax cash inflows of
` 2,50,000 are expected in year 2, ` 3,00,000 in year 3, ` 3,50,000 in year 4 and
` 4,00,000 each year thereafter through year 10. Although the product line might
be viable after year 10, the company prefers to be conservative and end all
calculations at that time.
(a) If the required rate of return is 15 per cent, COMPUTE net present value of
the project? Is it acceptable?
(b) ANALYSE What would be the case if the required rate of return were 10
per cent?
In the first year and the second year, special sales promotion expenditure, not
included in the above costs, would be incurred, amounting to ` 10,000 and
` 15,000 respectively.
CALCULATE NPV of the project for investment appraisal, assuming the
company’s cost of capital is 10 percent.
6. Ae Bee Cee Ltd. is planning to invest in machinery, for which it has to make a
choice between the two identical machines, in terms of Capacity, ‘X’ and ‘Y’.
Despite being designed differently, both machines do the same job. Further,
details regarding both the machines are given below:
Particulars Machine ‘X’ Machine ‘Y’
Purchase Cost of the Machine (`) 15,00,000 10,00,000
Life (years) 3 2
Running cost per year (`) 4,00,000 6,00,000
Note:
The PV factors at 10% are:
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
PV Factor 1 0.9091 0.8264 0.7513 0.6830 0.6209 0.5645
9. XYZ Ltd. is planning to introduce a new product with a project life of 8 years.
Initial equipment cost will be ` 3.5 crores. Additional equipment costing
` 25,00,000 will be purchased at the end of the third year from the cash inflow
of this year. At the end of 8 years, the original equipment will have no resale
value, but additional equipment can be sold for ` 2,50,000. A working capital of
` 40,00,000 will be needed and it will be released at the end of eighth year. The
project will be financed with sufficient amount of equity capital.
The sales volumes over eight years have been estimated as follows:
year. The loss of any year will be set off from the profits of subsequent two years.
The company is subject to 30 per cent tax rate and considers 12 per cent to be
an appropriate after tax cost of capital for this project. The company follows
straight line method of depreciation.
Required:
CALCULATE the net present value of the project and advise the management to
take appropriate decision.
Note:
The PV factors at 12% are
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
PV Factor 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 0.507 0.452 0.404
Year 1 2 3 4
Sales 966 966 1,254 1,254
Material consumption 90 120 255 255
Wages 225 225 255 300
Other expenses 120 135 162 210
Year 1 2 3 4
PV factors @14% 0.877 0.769 0.674 0.592
ANSWERS/ SOLUTIONS
Answers to the MCQs based Questions
1. (d) 2. (a) 3. (a) 4. (b) 5. (c) 6. (a)
7. (a) 8. (b) 9. (a) 10. (b) 11. (c) 12. (d)
13. (a) 14. (a) 15. (c)
From the discount factor table, at discount rate of 9%, the cumulative
discount factor for 4 years is 3.239 (0.917 + 0.842 + 0.772 + 0.708)
Hence, Cost of Capital = 9% (approx.)
(iii) Net Present Value (NPV)
NPV = Sum of Present Values of Cash inflows – Cost of the Project
= ` 3,23,243.20 – ` 3,03,800 = ` 19,443.20
Net Present Value = ` 19,443.20
2. Working:
Calculation of Cash-outflow at year zero
Machine A Machine B
Year NPV Cash Discounted Cash Discounted
Factor inflows value of inflows value of
@ 15% inflows inflows
0 1.000 (5,00,000) (5,00,000) (5,80,000) (5,80,000)
1 0.870 1,00,000 87,000 2,00,000 1,74,000
2 0.756 1,50,000 1,13,400 2,10,000 1,58,760
3 0.658 1,80,000 1,18,440 1,80,000 1,18,440
4 0.572 2,00,000 1,14,400 1,70,000 97,240
5 0.497 1,70,000 84,490 40,000 19,880
Salvage 0.497 50,000 24,850 60,000 29,820
5,42,580 5,98,140
Net Present Value 42,580 18,140
Since the Net present Value of both the machines is positive both
are acceptable.
Machine A Machine B
Year Discounted Cumulative Discounted Cumulative
cash Discounted cash Discounted
inflows cash inflows cash
inflows inflows
1 87,000 87,000 1,74,000 1,74,000
2 1,13,400 2,00,400 1,58,760 3,32,760
3 1,18,440 3,18,840 1,18,440 4,51,200
4 1,14,400 4,33,240 97,240 5,48,440
5 1,09,340* 5,42,580 49,700* 5,98,140
* Includes salvage value
Discounted Payback Period (For A and B):
5,00,000 − 4,33,240
Machine A = 4 years + = 4.61 years
1,09,340
5,80,000 − 5,48,440
Machine B = 4 years + = 4.63 years
49,700
(c) Desirability Factor or Profitability Index:
Sum of present value of net cash inflow
Profitability Index (PI) =
Initial cash outflow
` 5, 42,580 ` 5,98,140
Machine A = =1.08; Machine B = = 1.03
` 5,00,000 ` 5,80,000
(ii) Since the absolute surplus in the case of A is more than B and also the
desirability factor, it is better to choose A.
The discounted payback period in both the cases is almost same, also the
net present value is positive in both the cases but the desirability factor
(profitability index) is higher in the case of Machine A, it is therefore better
to choose Machine A.
` 2,51, 450
= 10% + ×(15%-10%)
` 2,51, 450-(-)1,18,200
(ii) Total of Present value of Cash flows if all the three projects are undertaken
simultaneously:
(`)
Project 2& 3 6,20,000
Project 1 2,90,000
Total 9,10,000
Projects 1 and 3 should be chosen, as they provide the highest net present
value.
5. Calculation of Net Cash flows
Contribution = (3.00 – 1.75)50,000 = ` 62,500
Fixed costs = 40,000 – [(1,25,000 – 30,000)/5] = ` 21,000
Recommendation: Ae Bee Cee Ltd. should buy Machine ‘X’ since equivalent
annual cash outflow is less than that of Machine ‘Y’.
7. Option I: Purchase Machinery and Service Part at the end of Year 1.
Net Present value of cash flow @ 10% per annum discount rate.
20,000
NPV (in `) =−1,00,000 +
36,000 36,000 36,000 25,000
+ + − +
(1.1) (1.1)2 (1.1)3 (1.1) (1.1)3
NPV = + 953.68
Net Present Value is positive, but very low as compared to the investment.
If the Supplier gives a discount of ` 10,000, then
NPV (in ` ) = 10,000 + 953.68 = 10,953.68
Decision: Option II is worth investing as the net present value is positive and
higher as compared to Option I.
8. Determination of Cash inflows
`
Sales Revenue 1,20,000
Less: Operating Cost 22,500
97,500
Less: Depreciation (` 2,00,000 – ` 18,000)/8 22,750
Net Income 74,750
Tax @ 30% 22,425
Earnings after Tax (EAT) 52,325
Add: Depreciation 22,750
Cash inflow after tax per annum 75,075
Less: Loss of Commission Income 36,000
Net Cash inflow after tax per annum 39,075
In 8th Year :
New Cash inflow after tax 39,075
Add: Salvage Value of Machine 18,000
Net Cash inflow in year 8 57,075
(i) Calculation of Net Present Value (NPV)
Advise: Since the net present value (NPV) is positive and profitability
index is also greater than 1, the hospital may purchase the machine.
9. Workings:
(a) Calculation of annual cash flows (` in lakh)
` in lakh
Profit for the year 23.93
Less: Set off of unabsorbed depreciation in 1 st year (10.63)
Taxable profit 13.30
Tax @30% 3.99
` in lakh
Cost of New Equipment 350
Add: Working Capital 40
Outflow 390
Calculation of NPV (`in lakh)
Year 1 2 3 4
Year 0 1 2 3 4
Material stock (60) (105) - - 165
Compensation for contract (90) - - - -
Contract payment saved - 150 150 150 150
Tax on contract payment - (45) (45) (45) (45)
Incremental profit - 222 219 336 285
Depreciation added back - 150 114 84 63
Tax on profits - (66.6) (65.7) (100.8) (85.5)
Loan repayment - (150) (150) (150) (150)
Profit on sale of machinery - - - - 15
(net)
Total incremental cash flows (150) 155.4 222.3 274.2 397.5
Present value factor 1.00 0.877 0.769 0.674 0.592
Present value of cash flows (150) 136.28 170.95 184.81 235.32
Net present value 577.36
Advice: Since the net present value of cash flows is ` 577.36 lakh which is
positive the management should install the machine for processing the waste.
Notes:
1. Material stock increases are taken in cash flows.
2. Idle time wages have also been considered
3. Apportioned factory overheads are not relevant only insurance charges of
this project are relevant.
4. Interest calculated at 14% based on 4 equal instalments of loan repayment.
5. Sale of machinery- Net income after deducting removal expenses taken.
Tax on Capital gains ignored.
6. Saving in contract payment and income tax thereon considered in the cash
flows.