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NAME: Jimenez, Ross John C. Year-Course-Section: 3-BSMA-A

This document contains 7 forecasting problems analyzing time series data. For problem 1, the student is asked to calculate a 3-week moving average of auto sales data. For problem 2, a weighted moving average is calculated applying different weights to recent weeks. Exponential smoothing is used to forecast demand in problem 3. Problem 4 evaluates two exponential smoothing constants based on minimizing MAD. Trend line analysis is performed in problem 5 to forecast future sales. Seasonality adjustment is made to this forecast in problem 6. Finally, MSE is calculated to evaluate forecast accuracy against actuals in problem 7.

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80 views5 pages

NAME: Jimenez, Ross John C. Year-Course-Section: 3-BSMA-A

This document contains 7 forecasting problems analyzing time series data. For problem 1, the student is asked to calculate a 3-week moving average of auto sales data. For problem 2, a weighted moving average is calculated applying different weights to recent weeks. Exponential smoothing is used to forecast demand in problem 3. Problem 4 evaluates two exponential smoothing constants based on minimizing MAD. Trend line analysis is performed in problem 5 to forecast future sales. Seasonality adjustment is made to this forecast in problem 6. Finally, MSE is calculated to evaluate forecast accuracy against actuals in problem 7.

Uploaded by

Ross John Jimenez
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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NAME: Jimenez, Ross John C.

Year-Course-Section: 3-BSMA-A

Assignment: Forecasting
Instruction: Analyze each problem and give what is asked. Round off your answers to 2
decimal places. NO NEED TO SHOW YOUR SOLUTIONS

Problem 1:
Auto sales at Carmen’s Chevrolet are shown below. Develop a 3-week moving average
from week 4 to 7. (Fill in the table)

Week Auto Sales Forecast

1 8 -

2 10 -

3 9 -

4 11 9

5 10 10

6 13 10

7 - 11.33

Problem 2:
Carmen’s decides to forecast auto sales by weighting the three weeks as follows:
(Copy the table above and fill in with your answers)

Weights Applied Period

3 Last week

2 Two weeks ago

1 Three weeks ago

6 Total

1
 Answer:

Week Auto Sales Forecast

1 8 -

2 10 -

3 9 -

4 11 9.17

5 10 10.17

6 13 10.17

7 - 11.67

Problem 3:
A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with   0.1 to forecast demand. The forecast
for the week of January 1 was 500 units whereas the actual demand turned out to be 450
units. Calculate the demand forecast for the week of January 8.
 𝑭𝒕 = 𝟒𝟗𝟓 𝒖𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒔

Problem 4:
Exponential smoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales. Two value of  are
examined,   0.8 and   0.5. Evaluate the accuracy of each smoothing constant using
MAD. Which is preferable? (Assume the forecast for January was 22 batteries.) Actual
sales are given below:

Month Actual Battery Sales Forecast

January 20 22

February 21

March 15

April 14

2
May 13

June 16

 Answer

Actual Absolute Forecast Absolute


Forecast
Month Battery Deviation with a = Deviation
with a =0.8
Sales with a = 0.8 0.5 with a = 0.5

January 20 22 2 22 2

February 21 20 1 21 0

March 15 21 6 21 6

April 14 16 2 18 4

May 13 14 1 16 3

June 16 13 3 15 1

∑ 𝑒= 15 ∑ 𝑒= 17

∑/𝑒/
MAD = 2.50 2.67
𝑛

Based on the table above, a smoothing constant of a = 0.8 is more preferred


than to that of a = 0.5 because it has a smaller MAD.

Problem 5:
Use the sales data given below to determine: (a) the trend line equation, and (b) the
predicted value for 2021 sales.

Year Sales (Units)

2014 100

3
2015 110

2016 122

2017 130

2018 139

2019 152

2020 164

To minimize computations, transform the value of t (time) to simpler numbers. In this


case, designate year 2014 as year 1, 2015 as year 2, etc.
 Answer:

Year Time Period (t) Sales (Units) (y) t2 ty

2014 1 100 1 100

2015 2 110 4 220

2016 3 122 9 366

2017 4 130 16 520

2018 5 139 25 695

2019 6 152 36 912

2020 7 164 49 1148

∑ 𝑡 = 28 ∑ 𝑦 = 917 ∑ 𝑡 2 = 140 ∑ 𝑡𝑦 = 3961

b= 10.46; a= 89.16
a. 𝒚𝒕 = 89.16 + 10.46t
b. 𝒚𝟖 = 172.84 units

4
Problem 6:
Using the data in Problem 5, sales is expected to be 10% higher than the average in year
2021. Compute the forecasted demand for year 2021 adjusted for seasonality.
 𝐲𝟖 = 190.12 units

Problem 7:
Given the forecast demand and actual demand for 10-foot fishing boats, compute the
MSE.

Year Forecast Demand Actual Demand

1 78 71

2 75 80

3 83 101

4 84 84

5 88 60

6 85 73

 MSE = 265.20

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