Created by T.

Madas

GEOMETRIC
DISTRIBUTION

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 1 (**+)
The discrete random variable X is modelled as being geometrically distributed with
parameter 0.2 .

a) State two conditions that must be satisfied by X , so that the geometric model
is valid.

b) Showing full workings, where appropriate, calculate the value of …

i. … P ( X = 3) .

ii. … P ( X > 8) .

iii. … P ( 5 ≤ X < 13) .

FS1-N , 0.128 , 0.1678 , 0.3409

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 2 (**+)
It is known that in a certain town 30% of the people own an Apfone.

A researcher asks people at random whether they own an Apfone.

The random variable X represents the number of people asked up to and including
the first person who owns an Apfone.

Determine that …

a) … P ( X = 4 ) .

b) … P ( X > 4 ) .

c) … P ( X < 6 ) .

0.1029 , 0.2401 , 0.8319

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 3 (**+)
Arthur and Henry are rolling a fair six sided die and the winner of their game will be
the first person to get a “six”.

Arthur rolls the die first.

Determine the probability that …

a) … Arthur wins on his second throw.

b) … Arthur wins on his third throw.

c) … Arthur wins the game.

25 , 625 , 6
216 7776 11

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 4 (***)
Nigel is playing tournament chess against a computer program and the probability he
wins against the program at any given game is 0.25 .

Nigel is playing several practice games every day, one after the other.

a) Find the probability that on a given day ...

i. ... Nigel wins for the first time on the 4th game played.

ii. … Nigel has to play more than 4 games before he wins for the first time.

If Nigel does not win any of the first 5 games played in a given day, he plays no more
games in that day. Nigel starts training on a Monday on a given week.

b) Determine the probability that Nigel wins his first game on the Thursday of
that week.

27 ≈ 0.105 , 81 ≈ 0.316 , ≈ 0.0102

256 256

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 5 (***)
In a statistical experiment, a token is placed at the origin ( 0,0 ) of a square grid.

A fair six sided die is rolled repeatedly until a "six" is obtained.

• Every time a "six" is not obtained, the token is moved by one unit in the
positive x direction.

• When a "six" is obtained, the token is moved by one unit in the positive y
direction and the experiment is over, with the token at the point with
coordinates ( X ,1) .

Determine …

a) … P ( X = 8 ) .

b) … P ( X < 8)

≈ 0.0388 , ≈ 0.7674

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 6 (***+)
The small central section on a standard dart board is called the bull’s eye.

When Albert aim for the bull’s eye the probability he hits it is 0.3 .

When Buckle aim for the bull’s eye the probability he hits it is 0.2 .

One day the two players decide to play a game aiming a single dart at the bull’s eye in
alternative fashion, starting with Buckle. The winner is the first to hit the bull’s eye.

Assuming that all probabilities are constant, show that Buckle is less likely to win the
game compared with Albert.

P ( Buckle ) = 5 < 1
11 2

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 7 (****)
Two cricket players, Markus and Dean, decide to throw balls at a wicket, in alternate
fashion, starting with Markus. The winner is the player who is first to hit the wicket.

The probability that Markus hits the wicket is 0.2 for any of his throws.

The probability that Dean hits the wicket is p for any of his throws.

If Markus throws first, the probability he wins the game is 5 .

13

Determine the value of p .

FS1-M , p = 0.4

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 8 (****)
A coin is biased so that the probability of obtaining “heads” in any toss is p , p ≠ 1 .
2

The coin is tossed repeatedly until a “head" is obtained.

The probability of obtaining “heads” after an even number of tosses is 2 .

5

Determine the value of p .

FS1-P , p = 1
3

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 9 (****)
A bag contains a large number of coins, of which some are pound coins and some are
two pound coins. A coin is selected at random from the bag with replacement, until a
two pound coin is selected.

It is given that the probability it will take …

… exactly 2 attempts until a two pound coin is selected is 3 .
16
… more than 3 attempts until a two pound coin is selected is 27 .
64

Determine the probability that a two pound coin will be selected for the first time on
the fifth attempt.

FS1-R , 81 ≈ 0.0791
1024

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 10 (*****)
A discrete random variable X is geometrically distributed with parameter p .

Show that …

1
a) … E ( X ) = .
p

1− p
b) … Var ( X ) = .
p2

FS1-S , proof

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

NEGATIVE
BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 1 (**)
A discrete random variable X has negative binomial distribution, with 6 successes
required each with probability of success 0.4 .

Determine the value of …

a) … E ( X ) .

b) … Var ( X ) .

c) … P ( X = 12 ) .

FS1-S , E ( X ) = 15 , Var ( X ) = 22.5 , P ( X = 12 ) ≈ 0.0883

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 2 (**+)
Justin is playing “Alien Shooter” on the internet. It is a game where you battle against
randomly drawn opponents where the reward of a battle is a “game ticket”.

The probability of Justin winning a battle is thought to be 0.4 .

a) Showing detailed workings where appropriate, calculate the probability of

Justin …
i. … winning his first battle on his third attempt.
ii. … winning his first battle after his third attempt.

In Alien Shooter when you collect 7 game tickets you can upgrade your spaceship.
Justin has already collected 2 game tickets from the previous day’s play. He starts
playing today, hoping to upgrade his spaceship.

b) Determine the probability he will have to have 10 battles by the time he is

able to upgrade his spaceship.

c) State two conditions that must be satisfied in this scenario if the calculations
are to be valid.

FS1-O , 0.144 , 0.216 , 0.1003

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 3 (**+)
A discrete random variable X has negative binomial distribution, with E ( X ) = 12
and Var ( X ) = 4 .

Determine the value of P ( X = 12 ) .

FS1-M , P ( X = 12 ) ≈ 0.1936

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 4 (***+)
It has been established over a long period of time that the probability that an
electricity company operative will be able to take a reading from a house meter, due
to the resident being at home, is 0.4 .

a) Determine the probability that the first reading to be taken will be on, or
before, the 7 th house visit.

b) Find the probability that the operative will be able to take …

i. … exactly 3 readings in his first 7 visits.

ii. … his 3rd reading on his 7 th visit.

iii. … his 3rd reading on, or before his 7 th visit.

FS1-Q , ≈ 0.9720 , ≈ 0.2903 , ≈ 0.1244 , ≈ 0.5801

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 5 (***+)
Steve is filming and uploading videos on the internet, and every week he plans to
upload 5 videos.

The probability that a video has no significant faults and so it is deemed to be suitable
for uploading to the internet, is 0.25 . Once Steve has uploaded 5 videos he stops
filming for that week.

a) Find the probability that, in a given week, Steve will have to film 11 videos.

b) Determine the number of videos Steve will be expected to film in a given

week in order to meet his weekly uploading target of 5 videos.

In a season Steve plans to film for 40 weeks.

c) Estimate the probability that the mean number of videos Steve has to film per
week, is greater than 18 .

FS1-O , ≈ 0.0365 , E ( X ) = 20 , ≈ 0.949

Created by T. Madas
 Created by T. Madas

Question 6 (****+)
The discrete random variable X represents the number of times a biased coin must be
tossed until 3 “heads” have been obtained.

It is further given that Var ( X ) = 36 .

a) Calculate P ( X = 9 ) .

b) If the first “head” was obtained on the second toss, find P ( X ≤ 9 )

FS1-U , ≈ 0.0779 , ≈ 0.5551

Created by T. Madas