MISAMIS UNIVERSITY Prepared by: Document Code: Module Reference

Ozamiz City Engr. Ace C. Agad No.

Office of the Vice President Faculty 02
for Academic Affairs Checked by: Revision Date: Units:
COLLEGE
Engr. Melenita M. Rupinta 3.0
OF Program Chairman
ENGINEERING & Reviewed by: Revision No.: Subject Code:
TECHNOLOGY Engr. Isidro M. Dalis Jr. 0 MATH 212
Dean
Approved by: Prerequisite: Co-requisite:
LEARNING MATH 111 None
MODULE VPAA/Director for Instruction
Descriptive Title: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS
MU-ACA-041A/30May2020

Module 2.1
Calculating Probabilities of Events.

I. Course Outcome : CO2. Interpret probabilities and use the probabilities of

outcomes to calculate probabilities of events.

II. Learning Outcome/s : LO2.1 Calculate the probabilities of joint events such as unions
and intersections from the probabilities of individual events.

III. Time Frame : 3.0 Hours

IV. Introduction/Outline :

Definition of Probability

Probability

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events cannot be predicted with total
certainty. We can predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e. how likely they are to happen, using it.
Probability can range in between 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be an impossible one and 1 indicates
a certain event. Probability for class 10 is an important topic for the students which explains all the basic
concepts of this topic. The probability of all the events in a sample space sums up to 1.
Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a random
event. The value is expressed between zero and one. Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict
how likely events are to happen.

Sample Spaces and Events

Rolling an ordinary six-sided die is a familiar example of a random experiment, an action for which all
possible outcomes can be listed, but for which the actual outcome on any given trial of the experiment
cannot be predicted with certainty. In such a situation we wish to assign to each outcome, such as rolling a
two, a number, called the probability of the outcome that indicates how likely it is that the outcome will
occur. Similarly, we would like to assign a probability to any event, or collection of outcomes, such as
rolling an even number, which indicates how likely it is that the event will occur if the experiment is
performed. This section provides a framework for discussing probability problems, using the terms just
mentioned.

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A random experiment is a mechanism that produces a definite outcome that cannot be predicted with
certainty.

The sample space associated with a random experiment is the set of all possible outcomes.

An event is a subset of the sample space.

An event E is said to occur on a particular trial of the experiment if the outcome observed is an element of
the set E.

A graphical representation of a sample space and events is a Venn diagram.

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Probability

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The following formula expresses the content of the definition of the probability of an event:

Illustration:

Since the whole sample space S is an event that is certain to occur, the sum of the probabilities of all the
outcomes must be the number 1.

In ordinary language probabilities are frequently expressed as percentages. For example, we would say
that there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow, meaning that the probability of rain is 0.70. We will use this
practice here, but in all the computational formulas that follow we will use the form 0.70 and not 70%.

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The previous three examples illustrate how probabilities can be computed simply by counting when the
sample space consists of a finite number of equally likely outcomes. In some situations the individual
outcomes of any sample space that represents the experiment are unavoidably unequally likely, in which
case probabilities cannot be computed merely by counting, but the computational formula given in the
definition of the probability of an event must be used.

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 Rules of Probability

Often, we want to compute the probability of an event from the known probabilities of other events. This
lesson covers some important rules that simplify those computations.

Definitions and Notation

Before discussing the rules of probability, we state the following definitions:

 Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot occur at the same time.
 The probability that Event A occurs, given that Event B has occurred, is called a conditional
probability. The conditional probability of Event A, given Event B, is denoted by the symbol
P(A|B).
 The complement of an event is the event not occurring. The probability that Event A will not occur
is denoted by P(A').
 The probability that Events A and B both occur is the probability of the intersection of A and B.
The probability of the intersection of Events A and B is denoted by P(A ∩ B). If Events A and B
are mutually exclusive, P(A ∩ B) = 0.
 The probability that Events A or B occur is the probability of the union of A and B. The probability
of the union of Events A and B is denoted by P(A ∪ B) .
 If the occurrence of Event A changes the probability of Event B, then Events A and B are dependent.
On the other hand, if the occurrence of Event A does not change the probability of Event B, then
Events A and B are independent.

Rule of Subtraction

In a previous lesson, we learned two important properties of probability:

 The probability of an event ranges from 0 to 1.

 The sum of probabilities of all possible events equals 1.
 The rule of subtraction follows directly from these properties.

Suppose, for example, the probability that Bill will graduate from college is 0.80. What is the probability
that Bill will not graduate from college? Based on the rule of subtraction, the probability that Bill will not
graduate is 1.00 - 0.80 or 0.20.

Rule of Multiplication

The rule of multiplication applies to the situation when we want to know the probability of the intersection
of two events; that is, we want to know the probability that two events (Event A and Event B) both occur.

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Example
An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are drawn without replacement from the
urn. What is the probability that both of the marbles are black?

Solution: Let A = the event that the first marble is black; and let B = the event that the second marble is
black. We know the following:

 In the beginning, there are 10 marbles in the urn, 4 of which are black. Therefore, P(A) = 4/10.
 After the first selection, there are 9 marbles in the urn, 3 of which are black. Therefore, P(B|A) =
3/9.

Therefore, based on the rule of multiplication:

Rule of Addition

The rule of addition applies to the following situation. We have two events, and we want to know the
probability that either event occurs.

Example
A student goes to the library. The probability that she checks out (a) a work of fiction is 0.40, (b) a work
of non-fiction is 0.30, and (c) both fiction and non-fiction is 0.20. What is the probability that the student
checks out a work of fiction, non-fiction, or both?

Solution: Let F = the event that the student checks out fiction; and let N = the event that the student checks
out non-fiction. Then, based on the rule of addition:

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V. Learning Materials : 1) PDF File (softcopy)
Filename: “.pdf”

VI. Supplementary Learning A. Ebooks

Resources : 1. “Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists 8th
Edition by R. E. Walpole, R. H. Myers, S. L. Myers, K. Ye.”

2. “Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers” 6th Edition

by Douglas C. Montgomery and George C. Runger

VII. Learning Activities : 1. Home-based Activities

1.1 Download and read in advance on Lesson 2.
2. School-based Activities
2.1 Lecture on
3. Home-based Activities
3.1 Answer/solve problems at MU-OLE.
3.2 Answer the online exam at MU-OLE.

VIII. Equipment : None

IX. Student Feedback : Your feedback is important. Please do not leave this blank. This
portion will allow us to evaluate how this module is going.
Your feedback will help improve this module for future
revision.

1. Which part of this module you found interesting? Why?

2. Which part of this module you considered challenging? Why?

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