Chapter Iv - Data Analysis and Interpretation: Property #1
Chapter Iv - Data Analysis and Interpretation: Property #1
PROPERTY #1
1
Table 5.1
2
CASH FLOWS
For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015
POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE
Base Rental Revenue $2,510,850 $2,530,635 $2,861,522 $2,892,956 $2,910,410 $2,987,657 $3,142,125 $3,351,311 $3,437,967 $3,457,407
Absorption & Turnover Vacancy (220,401) (209,279) (212,557) (83,682) (204,442) (133,475) (408,005) (11,179) (97,010)
Base Rent Abatements (177,497) (134,303) (398,422) (40,065) (111,575) (113,540) (229,050) (389,958) (149,194) (32,337)
Scheduled Base Rental Revenue $2,112,952 $2,187,053 $2,250,543 $2,852,891 $2,715,153 $2,669,675 $2,779,600 $2,553,348 $3,277,594 $3,328,060
Porters' Wage Revenue 11,484 7,778 7,679 7,238 3,304 0 0 0 0 0
Expense Reimbursement Revenue 14,182 12,609 8,437 3,644 1,715 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $2,138,618 $2,207,440 $2,266,659 $2,863,773 $2,720,172 $2,669,675 $2,779,600 $2,553,348 $3,277,594 $3,328,060
EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $2,138,618 $2,207,440 $2,266,659 $2,863,773 $2,720,172 $2,669,675 $2,779,600 $2,553,348 $3,277,594 $3,328,060
OPERATING EXPENSES
Real Estate Taxes $412,124 $424,488 $437,222 $450,339 $463,849 $477,765 $492,098 $506,861 $522,066 $537,728
Advertising 6,906 7,113 7,327 7,546 7,773 8,006 8,246 8,494 8,748 9,011
Insurance 69,729 71,821 73,975 76,195 78,481 80,835 83,260 85,758 88,331 90,981
Repairs 169,493 174,578 179,815 185,210 190,766 196,489 202,384 208,455 214,709 221,150
Payroll Expenses 303,274 312,372 321,743 331,396 341,338 351,578 362,125 372,989 384,178 395,704
Utilities 80,695 83,116 85,609 88,178 90,823 93,548 96,354 99,245 102,222 105,289
Management Fees 18,241 18,788 19,351 19,932 20,530 21,146 21,780 22,434 23,107 23,800
Miscellaneous Expense 58,023 59,764 61,557 63,403 65,305 67,265 69,282 71,361 73,502 75,707
Administrative & Consulting 337,912 348,049 358,491 369,246 380,323 391,733 403,485 415,589 428,057 440,899
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES $1,456,397 $1,500,089 $1,545,090 $1,591,445 $1,639,188 $1,688,365 $1,739,014 $1,791,186 $1,844,920 $1,900,269
NET OPERATING INCOME $682,221 $707,351 $721,569 $1,272,328 $1,080,984 $981,310 $1,040,586 $762,162 $1,432,674 $1,427,791
TOTAL LEASING & CAPITAL COSTS $502,096 $200,295 $465,912 $13,288 $57,268 $423,122 $289,317 $502,701 $109,504 $66,390
CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT SERVICE $180,125 $507,056 $255,657 $1,259,040 $1,023,716 $558,188 $751,269 $259,461 $1,323,170 $1,361,401
& TAXES
3
Terminal Value Calculation
Valuation Term 10 Years
Year 11 NOI $1,248,948
Terminal Cap Rate 8.00%
Gross Sale Proceeds $15,611,850
Net Sale Proceeds $15,611,850
Interpretation:
Here we have assumed a 10 year holding period irrespective of the useful life of the asset. At the end of the 10 th year, the
property is assumed to be sold. So, the 11th year NOI is capitalized to get the Net Sale Proceeds. The capitalized value is
then discounted to get the present value. This value is added to the present value of the 10 year cash flows to get the
value of the property.
4
Discount Rate
9.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.25% 10.50%
7.50% $11,009 $10,801 $10,598 $10,400 $10,206
(181.06) (177.65) (174.31) (171.05) (167.86)
Terminal Cap Rate
7.75% $10,792 $10,590 $10,391 $10,198 $10,009
(177.50) (174.16) (170.90) (167.72) (164.61)
8.00% $10,589 $10,391 $10,197 $10,008 $9,823
(174.16) (170.90) (167.71) (164.60) (161.56)
8.25% $10,398 $10,204 $10,015 $9,830 $9,649
(171.02) (167.83) (164.71) (161.67) (158.69)
8.50% $10,219 $10,029 $9,843 $9,662 $9,485
(168.06) (164.94) (161.89) (158.91) (155.99)
Interpretation:
The above table shows the resulting Net Present Value of the property in response to the fluctuations in Cap rate and
Discount rate due to changes in market conditions.
Table 5.5 Sensitivity Of DSCR And LTV To Changes In Interest Rates And Cap Rates
The above tables show the corresponding changes in Debt Service Coverage Ratio to the changing Interest rates and the
changes in the Loan To Value corresponding changes in Cap Rates. Clients generally require this table for their decision
making.
5
Table 5.6 Lease Expiration
6
For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009Jun-2010Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014Jun-2015
TENANT SUITE
MADISON LINEN 401 480
HEBRON YESHIVA 406 536
MERCHANT RENAISSANCE 503 712
BUREKHOVICH TRAVEL 504 1,575
INNO FUND CORP. 505 1,100
SALOMON ENGINEERING 803 1,125
GLAMOUR (USA), INC. 407 776
SAMUEL SANG HYON 502 2,081
SENECA TRADING, INC. 610 752
PRIMARY RESOURCE 901 2,000
KAM CONSULTING SERVICE 410 650
WELLINK PRODUCTS 603 1,210
BEST STYLES, INC. 0604A 2,145
URBAN OUTDOOR 701 400
MARKETING GRAPHICS, INC 707 636
C & M INTERNATIONAL 708 600
J & J CORP. 201 1,215
BEST SILVER, INC. 0205A 4,130
TIME CENTER, INC. STOR3 315
J & J CORP. STOR5 682
KI KI JEWELRY CORP 605 1,000
WENCY LLC 408 1,460
HERITAGE, INC. 810 1,275
HOWARD NOWES 405 640
K. YOUNG ASSESSARIES 508 1,800
AFRICAN ANGELS STOR4 445
STATE TO STATE RISK 802 553
CIRCLEX CORPORATION 601 1,782
BEST STYLES, INC. 0610A 460
EMPORIO PLUS, INC. 0703A 365
SECURE TRADING EST. 801 410
VERMANI PERFUMES STOR7
BEST STYLES INC. 400 1,800
AA & TC, INC. 706 1,400
HIND FASHION, INC. 800 1,037
EARTH MECHANICAL CORP 806 1,044
UNICOM CRAFTS, INC. 809 1,063
GENESIS INTERNATIONAL STOR2 689
LUCKY SILVER INC. 404 1,000
LUCKY GEM, INC. 300 630
LUCKY GEM, INC. 301 1,295
ABLE JEWELRY CREATION 305 530
LUCKY GEM, INC. 308 5,107
TOP SALE TRADE USA 807 1,700
HAN SOL USA GROUP, INC. 704 600
BARATO TRADING STOR6 1,000
SILVER GALORE, INC. STOR8 881
GURU IMPORTS, INC. 202 625
DECENT TRADING, INC. STOR1 2,000
TOTAL 30,337 23,842 4,506 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% of Total SF Expiring 49.89% 39.21% 7.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Culmulative Expiration 49.89% 89.1% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5%
7
Fig 5.1 Lease Expiration Chart
Interpretation
The above chart depicts the percentage of Net Rentable Area completing the first lease
rollover. Table 6 shows the total square foot of first rollover of each tenant.
The information was obtained from the lease agreements. Whenever there is a lease
rollover, there is a probability of either the tenant renewing the lease or vacating. This risk is
shown above. Here 96.5 % gets rolled over within 3 years, hence the risk is high.
8
Table 5.7 Rent Roll
Tenant Suite No. SF % of Total Rent/SF Annual % of Annual
SF Incom e Income
Credit Tenants
J & J CORP. STOR5 682 1.1% $138.56 $94,501 4.5%
J & J CORP. 0201 1,215 2.0% $13.00 $15,790 0.7%
Credit Tenants Total/Average 1,897 3.1% $58.14 $110,291 5.2%
Non-Credit Tenants
DECENT TRADING, INC. STOR1 1,487 2.4% $196.98 $292,903 13.9%
GENESIS INTERNATIONAL STOR2 1,000 1.6% 156.60 156,600 7.4%
TIME CENTER, INC. STOR3 315 0.5% 197.78 62,300 2.9%
AFRICAN ANGELS STOR4 445 0.7% 321.35 143,002 6.8%
BARATO TRADING STOR6 881 1.4% 194.10 170,998 8.1%
VERMANI PERFUMES STOR7 1,800 3.0% 53.17 95,706 4.5%
SILVER GALORE, INC. STOR8 625 1.0% 115.20 72,000 3.4%
GURU IMPORTS, INC. 0202 2,000 3.3% 24.90 49,800 2.4%
BEST SILVER, INC. 0205A 4,130 6.8% 11.14 45,998 2.2%
LUCKY GEM, INC. 0300 1,295 2.1% 24.68 31,961 1.5%
LUCKY GEM, INC. 0301 530 0.9% 24.68 13,080 0.6%
ABLE JEWELRY CREATION 0305 5,107 8.4% 24.08 122,977 5.8%
LUCKY GEM, INC. 0308 1,700 2.8% 24.68 41,956 2.0%
BEST STYLES INC. 0400 1,400 2.3% 24.86 34,804 1.6%
MADISON LINEN 0401 480 0.8% 12.71 6,100 0.3%
GLAMOUR LINE INC. 0402 500 0.8% 25.20 12,600 0.6%
DYNAMIC AIRCONDITIONING 0403 400 0.7% 29.63 11,850 0.6%
LUCKY SILVER INC. 0404 630 1.0% 28.57 17,999 0.9%
HOWARD NOWES 0405 640 1.1% 23.46 15,013 0.7%
HEBRON YESHIVA 0406 536 0.9% 11.63 6,231 0.3%
GLAMOUR (USA), INC. 0407 776 1.3% 12.23 9,490 0.4%
WENCY LLC 0408 1,460 2.4% 18.08 26,397 1.2%
KAM CONSULTING SERVICE 0410 650 1.1% 11.51 7,479 0.4%
SAMUEL SANG HYON 0502 2,081 3.4% 12.58 26,186 1.2%
MERCHANT RENAISSANCE 0503 712 1.2% 12.80 9,114 0.4%
BUREKHOVICH TRAVEL 0504 1,575 2.6% 12.42 19,555 0.9%
INNO FUND CORP. 0505 1,100 1.8% 13.02 14,317 0.7%
K. YOUNG ASSESSARIES 0508 1,800 3.0% 19.86 35,756 1.7%
CIRCLEX CORPORATION 0601 1,782 2.9% 25.59 45,595 2.2%
WELLINK PRODUCTS 0603 1,210 2.0% 14.91 18,045 0.9%
BEST STYLES, INC. 0604A 2,145 3.5% 11.67 25,032 1.2%
KI KI JEWELRY CORP 0605 1,000 1.6% 13.65 13,650 0.6%
SENECA TRADING, INC. 0610 752 1.2% 12.65 9,510 0.5%
BEST STYLES, INC. 0610A 460 0.8% 27.18 12,502 0.6%
9
P.O.M. PLANNING SERVICE 0700 1,042 1.7% 19.58 20,402 1.0%
URBAN OUTDOOR 0701 400 0.7% 13.08 5,233 0.2%
METRO OFFICE FURNITURE 0702 630 1.0% 20.95 13,199 0.6%
EMPORIO PLUS, INC. 0703A 365 0.6% 29.59 10,800 0.5%
HAN SOL USA GROUP, INC. 0704 1,000 1.6% 28.60 28,600 1.4%
AA & TC, INC. 0706 1,037 1.7% 26.04 27,003 1.3%
MARKETING GRAPHICS, INC 0707 636 1.0% 12.92 8,215 0.4%
C & M INTERNATIONAL 0708 600 1.0% 12.92 7,750 0.4%
HIND FASHION, INC. 0800 1,044 1.7% 23.18 24,202 1.1%
SECURE TRADING EST. 0801 410 0.7% 26.95 11,049 0.5%
1220 BROADWAY BUSINESS 0801A 1,032 1.7% 27.91 28,803 1.4%
STATE TO STATE RISK 0802 553 0.9% 25.50 14,102 0.7%
SALOMON ENGINEERING 0803 1,125 1.9% 13.01 14,637 0.7%
EARTH MECHANICAL CORP 0806 1,063 1.7% 29.54 31,399 1.5%
TOP SALE TRADE USA 0807 600 1.0% 23.00 13,800 0.7%
UNICOM CRAFTS, INC. 0809 689 1.1% 26.27 18,098 0.9%
HERITAGE, INC. 0810 1,275 2.1% 22.74 28,996 1.4%
PRIMARY RESOURCE 0901 2,000 3.3% 9.93 19,867 0.9%
Non-Credit Total/Average 58,905 96.9% $34.00 $2,002,661 94.8%
Interpretation:
The above table shows whether the tenants are credit tenants or not. This information was
searched from websites such as Standard & Poors, Moodys and Fitch to find out the credit
rating of each tenant. Then they are rated as credit and non-credit based on the credit rating
table. A credit tenant generally is an anchor tenant who attracts customers to the property.
His lease lasts long and he is a credit worthy tenant. The area occupied by the tenant and
the income generated by them is also shown in the table.
10
PROPERTY #2
Name : Orchards
Type : Retail
Net Rentable Area : 39,514 SF
Value : $ 10,195,446
11
Table 5.8 Cash Flows
For the Ye ars Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Jun-2016
TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $1,104,643 $1,147,046 $1,176,261 $1,214,602 $1,229,484 $1,244,162 $1,321,730 $1,343,522 $1,388,966 $1,450,809 $1,492,508
General Vacancy (33,139) (34,411) (32,108) (36,438) (36,885) (23,898) (39,652) (36,620) (33,605) (38,424) (19,757)
Collection Loss (22,093) (22,941) (23,525) (24,292) (24,590) (24,883) (26,435) (26,870) (27,779) (29,016) (29,850)
EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $1,049,411 $1,089,694 $1,120,628 $1,153,872 $1,168,009 $1,195,381 $1,255,643 $1,280,032 $1,327,582 $1,383,369 $1,442,901
OPERATING EXPENSES
Grease Trap Pumping $1,250 $1,288 $1,326 $1,366 $1,407 $1,449 $1,493 $1,537 $1,583 $1,631 $1,680
Alarm Monitoring 300 309 318 328 338 348 358 369 380 391 403
Elevator 1,200 1,236 1,273 1,311 1,351 1,391 1,433 1,476 1,520 1,566 1,613
Management Fee 31,482 32,691 33,619 34,616 35,040 35,861 37,669 38,401 39,827 41,501 43,287
Liability Expense 27,000 27,810 28,644 29,504 30,389 31,300 32,239 33,207 34,203 35,229 36,286
Administration Charges 1,000 1,030 1,061 1,093 1,126 1,159 1,194 1,230 1,267 1,305 1,344
Other CAM 115,294 118,753 122,315 125,985 129,764 133,657 137,667 141,797 146,051 150,433 154,945
Real Estate Taxes 102,000 106,080 110,323 114,736 119,326 124,099 129,063 134,225 139,594 145,178 150,985
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES $279,526 $289,197 $298,879 $308,939 $318,741 $329,264 $341,116 $352,242 $364,425 $377,234 $390,543
NET OPERATING INCOME $769,885 $800,497 $821,749 $844,933 $849,268 $866,117 $914,527 $927,790 $963,157 $1,006,135 $1,052,358
12
Table 5.9 Present Value Summary
Present Value Summary
Total PSF %
PV of Residual @ 10.0% $5,071,620 $128.35 49.7%
PV of Cash Flow @ 10.0% 5,123,826 129.67 50.3%
Total Present Value $10,195,000 $258.01 100.0%
13
Table 5.11 NPV Sensitivity Table
Table 5.12 Sensitivity Of DSCR And LTV To Changes In Interest Rates And Cap Rate
Debt Service Coverage Matrix Loan To Value Matrix
Interest Rate Debt Service DSCR Direct Cap. Rate Value LTV
5.75% $566,196 1.36 7.00% $10,998,000 63.6%
6.25% $593,702 1.30 7.50% $10,265,000 68.2%
6.75% $621,820 1.24 8.00% $9,624,000 72.7%
7.25% $650,526 1.18 8.50% $9,057,000 77.3%
7.75% $679,796 1.13 9.00% $8,554,000 81.8%
Interpretation:
The Debt Service Coverage Ratios of this property are acceptable and the Loan To Value Values are in good range. The
risk is low in this property for the lender.
14
Table 5.13 Lease Expiration
For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015
TENANT
Procare 1,854
OBGYN Associates 3,640
% of Total SF Expiring 4.69% 0.0% 18.1% 23.6% 12.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1%
Culmulative Expiration 4.69% 4.7% 22.8% 46.4% 59.0% 62.9% 62.9% 62.9% 62.9% 69.1%
Speculative leases are not included in the Lease Expiration Schedule.
15
Fig 5.2 Lease Expiration Chart
1 00.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0% 18 .1% 23.6%
20.0% 12.6%
4.7% 4.0% 6.1%
10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2 006 20 07 20 08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Interpretation
The chart shows that 69.1 % of the net rentable area is at risk of vacation loss after the first
lease is completed for all the tenants.
16
Table 5.14 Rent Roll
For the Years Ending Suite No. SF % of Total Rent/SF Annual % of Annual
SF Income Income
Tenants
C & L Bagels L.L.C. A 1,525 3.9% $22.23 $33,897 4.5%
Art & San L.L.C. B,C,D 4,725 12.0% 23.67 111,857 15.0%
Little Expressions E 1,494 3.8% 22.16 33,100 4.4%
Orchards Cleaners F 1,557 3.9% 20.89 32,518 4.3%
Gingers Salon G, H 3,150 8.0% 22.24 70,046 9.4%
Perkins J, K 3,404 8.6% 17.74 60,401 8.1%
R.G. Holding L 1,288 3.3% 3.75 4,830 0.6%
Blooming Things M 1,250 3.2% 21.65 27,067 3.6%
Estate Jewelry M (Fro 605 1.5% 21.44 12,972 1.7%
J & K Interiors N, P 3,150 8.0% 21.51 67,757 9.1%
Xact Solutions Q, R 2,965 7.5% 20.19 59,849 8.0%
Hip Yoga, L.L.C. S 1,575 4.0% 21.01 33,091 4.4%
American Realty T 1,390 3.5% 20.96 29,130 3.9%
Monmouth Health A&D 2,418 6.1% 16.00 38,688 5.2%
Dr. Messo B/C1 3,524 8.9% 14.19 50,017 6.7%
Procare C2 1,854 4.7% 15.14 28,068 3.8%
OBGYN Associates C3 3,640 9.2% 14.97 54,479 7.3%
Total/Average 39,514 100.0% $319.73 $747,767 100.0%
Interpretation:
This property does not have any credit tenants. So the property does not have any major
anchor tenant who can drive in customers. This is a disadvantage for the property.
17
PROPERTY #3
Name : Sunrise
Type : Retail
Net Rentable Area : 45,122 SF
Value : $ 7,369,616
18
Table 5.15 Cash Flows
For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Jun-2016
POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE
Base Rental Revenue $690,685 $767,267 $791,944 $851,758 $934,986 $980,295 $1,006,732 $1,032,265 $1,059,673 $1,090,746 $1,117,164
Absorption & Turnover Vacancy (7,578) (8,226) (2,245) (27,021) (17,483) (69,932) (15,406) (3,274) (34,005) (20,268) (81,071)
Scheduled Base Rental Revenue $683,107 $759,041 $789,699 $824,737 $917,503 $910,363 $991,326 $1,028,991 $1,025,668 $1,070,478 $1,036,093
Base Rental Step Revenue 90,857 67,874 60,213 45,570 273 0 0 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous Rental Revenue 109,671 13,671 4,071 4,071 678 0 0 0 0 0 0
Expense Reimbursement Revenue 41,823 39,703 42,620 40,863 20,949 22,050 24,421 29,495 30,817 26,158 25,852
TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $925,458 $880,289 $896,603 $915,241 $939,403 $932,413 $1,015,747 $1,058,486 $1,056,485 $1,096,636 $1,061,945
Collection Loss (9,255) (8,803) (8,966) (9,152) (9,394) (9,324) (10,157) (10,585) (10,565) (10,966) (10,619)
EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $916,203 $871,486 $887,637 $906,089 $930,009 $923,089 $1,005,590 $1,047,901 $1,045,920 $1,085,670 $1,051,326
OPERATING EXPENSES
Insurance $17,453 $17,977 $18,516 $19,071 $19,644 $20,233 $20,840 $21,465 $22,109 $22,772 $23,455
Contract Services 4,505 4,640 4,780 4,923 5,071 5,222 5,379 5,541 5,707 5,878 6,055
Repairs & Maintenance 10,352 10,663 10,982 11,312 11,651 12,001 12,361 12,732 13,114 13,507 13,912
Cleaning 10,307 10,616 10,935 11,263 11,601 11,949 12,307 12,676 13,057 13,448 13,852
Utilities 71,544 73,690 75,901 78,178 80,523 82,939 85,427 87,990 90,630 93,349 96,149
Management Fees 27,486 26,145 26,629 27,183 27,900 27,693 30,168 31,437 31,378 32,570 31,540
Salaries & Benefits 53,170 54,765 56,408 58,100 59,843 61,639 63,488 65,392 67,354 69,375 71,456
Office Costs 10,846 11,171 11,506 11,851 12,208 12,572 12,952 13,338 13,739 14,153 14,577
Real Estate Taxes 32,987 33,647 34,320 35,006 35,706 36,420 37,149 37,892 38,650 39,423 40,211
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES $238,650 $243,314 $249,977 $256,887 $264,147 $270,668 $280,071 $288,463 $295,738 $304,475 $311,207
NET OPERATING INCOME $677,553 $628,172 $637,660 $649,202 $665,862 $652,421 $725,519 $759,438 $750,182 $781,195 $740,119
CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT SERVICE $591,757 $599,769 $632,873 $600,804 $634,875 $543,561 $706,723 $739,334 $694,075 $745,274 $613,921
& TAXES
19
Table 5.16 Present Value Summary
Present Value Summary
Total PSF %
PV of Residual @ 10.0% $3,566,834 $79.05 48.3%
PV of Cash Flow @ 10.0% 3,819,100 84.64 51.7%
Total Present Value $7,386,000 $163.69 100.0%
20
Table 5.18 NPV Sensitivity Table
Present Value Analysis - Total/(PSF) (in '000s)
Discount Rate
9.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.25% 10.50%
6.50% $7,981 $7,846 $7,714 $7,586 $7,460
(176.88) (173.88) (170.96) (168.12) (165.33)
Table 5.19 Sensitivity Of DSCR And LTV To Changes In Interest Rates And Cap Rates
Debt Service Coverage Matrix Loan To Value Matrix
Interest Rate Debt Service DSCR Direct Cap. Rate Value LTV
5.75% $566,196 1.03 7.00% $8,338,000 89.9%
6.25% $593,702 0.98 7.50% $7,782,000 96.4%
6.75% $621,820 0.94 8.00% $7,296,000 102.8%
7.25% $650,526 0.90 8.50% $6,867,000 109.2%
7.75% $679,796 0.86 9.00% $6,485,000 115.7%
Interpretation:
The Debt Service Coverage Ratio is lower than 1, which means that the income of the borrower may not be sufficient
enough to service his debt. The Loan To Value is also on the higher side. Typically LTVs greater than 100% call for huge
risks.
21
Table 5.20 Lease Expiration
For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015
TENANT SUITE
New Paradigm Investment 210 1,263
Dr. Lang, MD 230 1,105
Mercy Healthcare 300 7,921
Dr. John Von Brecht 260 1,331
Dr. Gloria S. Simard 220 1,058
Dr. Lang, MD 230 1,105
Sierra Foothills Thorac 250 2,311
CHW Medical 100 17,030
Mercy Blood Draw Lab 270 460
Dr. Shaari, DDS 290 2,129
Dr. Daisuke Bannai 240 1,350
Dr. Carol F. Milazzo 280 1,504
Sierra Counseling 310B 7,200
TOTAL 2,368 9,252 4,474 17,030 2,589 10,054 0 0 0 0
% of Total SF Expiring 5.25% 20.50% 9.92% 37.74% 5.74% 22.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Culmulative Expiration 5.25% 25.8% 35.7% 73.4% 79.1% 101.4% 101.4% 101.4% 101.4% 101.4%
22
Fig.53 Lease Expiration Chart
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
37.7%
40.0%
30.0% 22.3%
20.0% 20.5% 9.9%
Interpretation:
The probability of the property becoming 100% vacant arises in the 6 th year itself. The
rollover risk is high.
23
Table 5.21 Rent Roll
Interpretation:
This property does not have any credit tenants. So the property does not have any major
anchor tenant who can drive in customers. This is a disadvantage for the property.
24
PROPERTY #4
25
Table 5.22 Cash Flows
For the Ye ars Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015
POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE
Base Rental Revenue $765,438 $797,918 $818,131 $886,069 $906,913 $940,397 $986,265 $1,018,045 $1,059,939 $1,143,260
Absorption & Turnover Vacancy 0 (14,163) (9,061) 0 (2,814) (23,623) (13,433) (19,729) (16,086) (6,864)
Scheduled Base Re ntal Revenue $765,438 $783,755 $809,070 $886,069 $904,099 $916,774 $972,832 $998,316 $1,043,853 $1,136,396
Expense Reimbursement Revenue 352,395 370,896 387,329 404,997 419,203 423,576 401,239 417,775 442,850 470,033
TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $1,117,833 $1,154,651 $1,196,399 $1,291,066 $1,323,302 $1,340,350 $1,374,071 $1,416,091 $1,486,703 $1,606,429
General Vacancy (33,535) (20,901) (27,103) (38,732) (36,969) (17,296) (28,192) (23,346) (28,998) (41,535)
Collection Loss (22,357) (23,093) (23,928) (25,821) (26,466) (26,807) (27,481) (28,322) (29,734) (32,129)
EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $1,061,941 $1,110,657 $1,145,368 $1,226,513 $1,259,867 $1,296,247 $1,318,398 $1,364,423 $1,427,971 $1,532,765
OPERATING EXPENSES
Real Estate Taxes $149,876 $155,871 $162,106 $168,590 $175,334 $182,347 $189,641 $197,227 $205,116 $213,320
Water/Sew er 9,296 9,575 9,862 10,158 10,463 10,777 11,100 11,433 11,776 12,129
Insurance 32,016 32,976 33,966 34,985 36,034 37,115 38,229 39,376 40,557 41,774
Utilities 13,892 14,309 14,738 15,180 15,636 16,105 16,588 17,085 17,598 18,126
Landscaping 34,531 35,567 36,634 37,733 38,865 40,031 41,232 42,469 43,743 45,055
Trash Removal 8,965 9,234 9,511 9,796 10,090 10,393 10,705 11,026 11,357 11,697
Snow Removal 20,440 21,053 21,685 22,335 23,005 23,696 24,406 25,139 25,893 26,670
Payroll/Taxes 12,000 12,360 12,731 13,113 13,506 13,911 14,329 14,758 15,201 15,657
Repairs & Maintenance 53,097 55,533 57,268 61,326 62,993 64,812 65,920 68,221 71,399 76,638
Management Fee 31,858 33,320 34,361 36,795 37,796 38,887 39,552 40,933 42,839 45,983
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES $365,971 $379,798 $392,862 $410,011 $423,722 $438,074 $451,702 $467,667 $485,479 $507,049
NET OPERATING INCOME $695,970 $730,859 $752,506 $816,502 $836,145 $858,173 $866,696 $896,756 $942,492 $1,025,716
26
Present Value Summary
Total PSF %
PV of Residual @ 10.0% $5,052,453 $114.13 51.6%
PV of Cash Flow @ 10.0% 4,736,008 106.98 48.4%
Total Present Value $9,788,000 $221.09 100.0%
27
Table 5.25 NPV Sensitivity Table
Table 5.26 Sensitivity Of DSCR And LTV To Changes In Interest Rates And Cap Rates
Debt Service Coverage Matrix Loan To Value Matrix
Interest Rate Debt Service DSCR Direct Cap. Rate Value LTV
5.75% $566,196 1.23 7.00% $9,942,000 80.5%
6.25% $593,702 1.17 7.50% $9,280,000 86.2%
6.75% $621,820 1.12 8.00% $8,700,000 92.0%
7.25% $650,526 1.07 8.50% $8,188,000 97.7%
7.75% $679,796 1.02 9.00% $7,733,000 103.5%
Interpretation:
The Debt Service Coverage Ratios of the property are closer to the ideal value. The Loan To Value is slightly higher. This
would have been acceptable if there were credit tenants in the property, which would have reduced the risk of getting
back the loan payments.
28
Table 5.27 Lease Expiration
For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015
TENANT SUITE
Dr. Mark Zeintek 1082 1,800
Classic Comics 1006 1,200
Two Girls Inc. 1000 1,200
Yuno Corp. 1090 1,200
Raymond & Susan 1050 5,000
JJ Pizza 1008 1,200
UPS Store (Jin Kim) 1092 1,200
Dr. Eugene & Tendler 1086 1,800
Saibaba Cellular 1002 1,100
Ming Feng 998 1,095
Beneficial Finance 1004 1,325
Sip & Dip 1096 1,200
Community Distribution 1064 13,900
Bank of America 1034 5,651
Krauzer's Food Store 1100 2,400
TOTAL 1,800 9,800 4,100 2,420 15,100 5,651 0 2,400 0 0
% of Total SF Expiring 4.07% 22.14% 9.26% 5.47% 34.11% 12.76% 0.00% 5.42% 0.00% 0.00%
Culmulative Expiration 4.07% 26.2% 35.5% 40.9% 75.0% 87.8% 87.8% 93.2% 93.2% 93.2%
29
30
Fig.5.4 Lease Expiration Chart
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0% 34.1%
30.0%
22.1% 9.3%
20.0% 12.8%
10.0% 5.5% 5.4%
4.1%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Interpretation
The Rollover risk is medium. Considering the first rollover term, the probability of
building becoming vacant is 75 % in 5 years and 93 % in 10 years.
31
Table 5.28 Rent Roll
For the Years Ending Suite No. SF % of Total Rent/SF Annual % of Annual
SF Income Income
Credit Tenants
Bank of America 1034 5,651 12.8% $27.72 $156,672 20.5%
Credit Tenants Total/Average 5,651 12.8% $27.72 $156,672 20.5%
Non-Credit Tenants
Two Girls Inc. 1000 1,200 2.7% $14.00 $16,800 2.2%
Saibaba Cellular 1002 1,100 2.5% 13.96 15,352 2.0%
Beneficial Finance 1004 1,325 3.0% 19.34 25,625 3.3%
Classic Comics 1006 1,200 2.7% 14.82 17,788 2.3%
JJ Pizza 1008 1,200 2.7% 26.00 31,200 4.1%
Community Distribution 1064 13,900 31.4% 11.20 155,680 20.3%
Raymond & Susan 1050 5,000 11.3% 12.48 62,417 8.2%
Dr. Mark Zeintek 1082 1,800 4.1% 27.35 49,233 6.4%
Dr. Eugene & Tendler 1086 1,800 4.1% 15.00 27,000 3.5%
Yuno Corp. 1090 1,200 2.7% 22.10 26,520 3.5%
UPS Store (Jin Kim) 1092 1,200 2.7% 19.77 23,724 3.1%
Sip & Dip 1096 1,200 2.7% 23.05 27,662 3.6%
Krauzer's Food Store 1100 2,400 5.4% 21.63 51,911 6.8%
Ming Feng 0998 1,095 2.5% 19.73 21,604 2.8%
Non-Credit Total/Average 35,620 80.5% $15.51 $552,516 72.2%
Speculative lease 1110 3,000 6.8% 18.75 56,250 7.3%
Total/Average 44,271 100.0% $17.29 $765,438 100.0%
Interpretation:
The above table shows the list of credit and non credit tenants. The credit tenant
Bank Of America occupies 12.8 % of the total square foot and generates the
maximum Income, 20.5% of Total Annual Income.
32