INTRODUCTION TO

TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING (PART 2)
(TRIP DISTRIBUTION)
Prepared by:
ENGR. PRECIOUS PRINCESS T. SABA
Instructor
 TRIP
DISTRIBUTION
Trip distribution is a process by which the tips generated in one zone are allocated to
other zones in the study area. These trips may be within the studt area (internal-
internal) or between the study area and areas outside the study area (internal –
external).
o for example, if the trip generation analysis result in an estimate of 200HBW trips
in zone 10, then the trip distribution analysis would determine how many of
these trips would be made between zone 10 and each of the other internal
zones.
 In addition, the trip distribution process considers internal – external trips ( or vice
versa) where one end of the trip is within the study area and the other end is outside
the study area.
Methods of Trip Distribution Analysis

AThe Gravity Model

The most widely used and documneted trip distribution model is the gravity model, which states
that the number of trips between two zones is directly proportional to the number of trip
attractions generated by the two zone is directly proportional to the number of trip attractions
generated by the zone of destination and inversely proportional to a function of travel time
between the two zones. Mathematically, Note:
Tij = number of trips that are produced in zone I and
𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗 attracted to zone j
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃𝑖 [ 𝑛 ]
𝑗=1 𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗 Pi = total number of trips produced in zone I
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = Friction factor, a value which is an inverse function
of travel time
Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij
 The values of Pi and Aj in the formula have been determined in the trip generation process. The
sum of Pi for all zones must be equal sum of Aj for all zones. Kij values are used when the
estimated trip interchange must be adjusted to ensure that it agrees with observed trip
interchange.

SAMPLE PROBLEM 3 USE OF CALIBRATED F VALUES AND ITERATION

To illustrate the application of the gravity model, consider a study area consisting of three zones. The
data have been determined as follows: the number of productions and attractions has been computed
for each zone by methods described in the section on trip generation, and the average travel times
between each zone have been determined. Both are shown in the tables below. Assume Ky is the
same unit value for all zones. Finally, the F values have been calibrated as previously described and
are shown in Table 3 for each travel time increment. Note the intra – zonal travel time for zone 1 is
larger than those of most other inter – zone times because of geographical characteristics of the zone
and lack of access within the area. The zone could represent conditions in a congested area.
Determine the zone – to zone trips through iteration.
Table 1

Table 2

Table 3
SOLUTION
o According to the problem, Kij is same for all zones. Then , assume Kij = 1 for all zones.
o Using formula :
𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
1 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃𝑖 [ 𝑛 ]
𝑗 𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗

o Refer to the tables for the data needed to solve for Tij
FOR ZONE 1:
 For intra-zonal travel or Travel within Zone 1:
Given :
i =1; j = 1; Pi = 140; Aj = 300; Time 1 – 1 = 5mins; Fij = 39
 For Travel Zone 1 to Zone 2:
Given :
i = 1; j = 2; Pi = 140; Aj = 270; Time 1 – 2 = 2mins; Fij = 52
 For Travel Zone 1 to Zone 2:
Given :
i = 1; j = 3; Pi = 140; Aj = 180; Time 1 – 2 = 3mins; Fij = 50
 300 𝑥 39 𝑥 1
𝑇1 − 1 = 140 𝑥 [ ] Computed P1 = 47 + 57 + 36
300𝑥39𝑥1 + 250𝑥52𝑥1 + (180𝑥50𝑥1)
T1-1 = 47
Computed P1 = 140

270 𝑥 52 𝑥 1
𝑇1 − 2 = 140 𝑥 [ ]
300𝑥39𝑥1 + 250𝑥52𝑥1 + (180𝑥50𝑥1)
T1-2 = 57

180 𝑥 50 𝑥 1
𝑇1 − 3 = 140 𝑥 [ ]
300𝑥39𝑥1 + 250𝑥52𝑥1 + (180𝑥50𝑥1)
T1-3 = 36

o Make similar computation for zones 2 and 3. We will get the values:
P2 = 330 T2-1 = 188 T2-2 = 85 T2-2 = 57
P3 = 280 T3-1 = 144 T3-2 = 68 T3-2 = 68
o Tabulate the values:
Table 4: Zone-to-zone trips: First Iteration , Singly Constrained

ZONE 1 1 2 3 Computed P Given P

1 47 57 36 140 140

2 188 85 57 330 330

3 144 68 68 280 280

Computed A 379 210 161 750 750

Given A 300 270 180 750

Note:
Computed A is the sum of Attraction in each zone for the zone-to-zone trips, for example,
47+ 188 + 144 = 379 trips. While Given A is given in the table.
Computed P is the sum of trip production in each zone for the zone-to-zone trips, for
example, 47 + 57 + 36 = 140 trips
o The results summarized in Table 4 represent a singly constrained gravity model. This
constrain is that sum of the productions in each zone is equal to the number of productions
given in the problem statement.
o However, the number of attractions estimated in the trip distribution phase differs from the
number of attractions given. For zone 1 , the correct number is 300, whereas the computed
value is 379. values for zone 2 are 270 versus 210, and for zone 3 they are 180 versus 161.
o To create doubly constrained gravity model where the computed attractions equal the given
attractions, calculate the adjusted attraction factors according to the formula
Where:
Ajk = adjusted attraction factor for attraction zone (column) j, iteration
𝐴𝑗 k = Aj when k = 1
2 Ajk = 𝐴𝑗(𝑘 − 1) Cjk = actual attraction (column) total for zone j, iteration k
𝐶𝑗 𝑘−1 Aj = desired attraction total for attraction zone (column) j
j = attraction zone number, j = 1, 2,…,n
n = number of zones
k = iteration number, k = 1,2,…,m
m = number of iterations
o Repeat the trip distribution using modified attraction values so that the numbers attracted
will be increased or reduced as required. For zone 1, for example, the estimated
attractions were too great. Therefore, new attraction value using the formula (by the ratio
of the original to estimated attractions values)

300
Zone 1: A12 = 300 x 379 = 237

270
Zone 2: A22 = 270 x 210 = 347

180
Zone 2: A32 = 180 x 161 = 201

o Apply the gravity model for all iterations to calculate new zonal trip interchanges using the
adjusted attraction factors obtained from the preceding iteration. We will now obtain the
values:
 237 𝑥 39 𝑥 1
𝑇1 − 1 = 140 𝑥 [ ] Computed P1 = 34 + 68 + 37
237𝑥39𝑥1 + 347𝑥52𝑥1 + (201𝑥50𝑥1)
T1-1 = 34 Computed P1 = 140

347 𝑥 52 𝑥 1
𝑇1 − 2 = 140 𝑥 [ ]
237𝑥39𝑥1 + 347𝑥52𝑥1 + (201𝑥50𝑥1)
T1-2 = 68

201 𝑥 50 𝑥 1
𝑇1 − 3 = 140 𝑥 [ ]
237𝑥39𝑥1 + 347𝑥52𝑥1 + (201𝑥50𝑥11)
T1-3 = 37

o Make similar computation for zones 2 and 3. We will get the values:
P2 = 330 T2-1 = 153 T2-2 = 112 T2-2 = 65
P3 = 280 T3-1 = 116 T3-2 = 88 T3-2 = 76
o Tabulate the new values:
Table 5: Zone-to-zone trips: First Iteration , Doubly Constrained

ZONE 1 1 2 3 Computed P Given P

1 34 68 38 140 140

2 153 112 65 330 330

3 116 88 76 280 280

Computed A 303 268 179 750 750

Given A 300 270 180 750

Note:
Computed A is the sum of Attraction in each zone for the zone-to-zone trips, for example,
34+ 153 + 116 = 303 trips. While Given A is given in the table.
Computed P is the sum of trip production in each zone for the zone-to-zone trips, for
example, 34 + 68 + 38 = 140 trips
o The results are summarized in Table 5. Note that, in each case, the sum of the attractions
is now much closer to the given value. The process will be continued until there is a
reasonable agreement (within 5%) between the A that is estimated using the gravity model
and the values that are furnished in the trip generation phase.
o A singly constrained gravity model requires that computed and actual productions must be
equal, whereas a doubly constrained gravity model requires that computed and actual
productions and attractions must be equal.
o The singly constrained gravity model may be preferred if the friction factors are more
reliable than the attraction values.
o The doubly constrained gravity model is appropriate of the if the attraction values are more
reliable than friction factors.