Impact of Non-Performing Loans On Profitability of Banks in Bangladesh: A Study On United Commercial Bank LTD
Impact of Non-Performing Loans On Profitability of Banks in Bangladesh: A Study On United Commercial Bank LTD
Impact of Non-Performing Loans On Profitability of Banks in Bangladesh: A Study On United Commercial Bank LTD
by
Muhammad Faiaj Muhtadi
Department of Business Administration in
Accounting & Information Systems
March, 2020
Dedicated to My Beloved Parents
Abstract
Excessive amount of non-performing loan (NPL) has become a worrisome issue in the banking
sector of Bangladesh. When a loan is sanctioned, it comprises a repayment schedule including
principal and interest amounts. According to Bangladesh bank regulations, a loan becomes
classified when the borrower fails to pay the scheduled principal and interest amounts for more
than 90 days. If the proportion of NPL grows, it reduces the capacity of banks to sanction
further loans, their capacity to repay the depositors, and reduces the banks’ ability to earn
profit. Continuation of large size of loan defaults lead to liquidity crisis in the overall banking
sector and even failure of banks. Due to this, banks have to keep provisions against their non-
performing loans as per the central bank’s guidelines which severely affects Banks’s
profitability.
The aim of this research is to analyze the comparative position of United Commercial Bank’s
non-performing loans for last five years and whether it has any significant impact on the
profitability of the bank and also investigate what are the different causes of non-performing
loans in banking sectors of Bangladesh. This study is conducted based on secondary data,
which has been collected from the annual reports of UCB during the 2014-2018 for 5 years
and total NPL, NPL to Total Loans ratio, Return on Assets and Return on Equity which are
two key important firm factors are taken as variables of the study. The data are analyzed by
using linear regression model on SPSS. Mainly focusing on to find out if there is any
relationship among the variables used in this study. Expectedly, significant impact of NPL on
both the factors have been found by analyzing the data.
Findings from the study is mainly focused on the core reasons behind the increasing amount
of classified loans. Some key measures are suggested that can be taken to water down the issue.
This paper can be a means to understand the effect of increasing NPLs on the performance of
banks and to take initiatives to control it.
Key Words: Non-Performing Loan, Profitability, NPL to Total Loan Ratio, ROA, ROE
iii
Table of Contents
Contents Pages
Acknowledgement iii
Abstract iv
List of Tables vi
List of Figures vii
List of Abbreviations viii
1 Background
1.1 Introduction 2
1.2 Problem Statement 3
1.3 Rationale of the Study 4
1.4 Research Question 4
1.5 Objectives
1.5.1 General Objective 5
1.5.2 Specific Objective 5
1.6 Limitations of the Study 5
2 Literature Review 6-8
3 Methodology 9-16
3.1 Research Design 10
3.2 Sources of Data Collection 10
3.3 Hypothesis of the Study 10
3.4 Model & Variable Definition 11-12
3.5 Data Analysis 13-14
3.6 Data Interpretation 15--16
4 Findings & Analysis 18-20
5 Conclusion and Recommendations 21-23
6.1 Recommendations 22
6.2 Conclusion 23
References ix
iv
List of Tables
v
Chapter 1
Background
1
1.1 Introduction
Non-performing loans refer to the financial assets from which banks no longer receive
scheduled installment or interest payments which is a very common issue in financial
institutions involved in lending business such as banks and NBFIs. In recent years, NPL
has become a matter of great concern in our country. Many credits move toward becoming
non-performing loan in the wake of being in default for 90 days based upon the agreement
terms. As specified by International Monetary Fund (IMF), "A loan is Non-performing
when payments of interest and/or principal are past due by 90 days or more, or interest
payments equal to 90 days or more have been capitalized, refinanced, or delayed by
agreement, or payments are less than 90 days overdue, but there are other good reasons—
such as a debtor filing for bankruptcy—to doubt that payments will be made in full". Due
to recent expansion of the economy, the banking sector has been diversified and going
through a transition period in general. The banking sector plays a critical role in the
economy, mobilizing savings and feeding the savings for productive investment. The better
it does so, the better the economy will perform in the long run through more productive
economic activities and reduced financial risk. The role is even more distinct in a
developing country like Bangladesh, where the banks are the major source of long-term
finance in the absence of a full-fledged mature capital market. A sound banking system
safeguards effective use of resources, facilitating effective allocation of resources. Access
to fund for business capital by individuals, firms, and projects is critical, among others, for
undertaking different social and physical infrastructure projects, creating jobs, and
increasing productivity. Developing the banking sector is a vital condition for economic
development because of its vital function of promoting capital formation, savings and
investments, as well as development in agriculture, industry and trade, and services. On the
contrary, the banking sector itself has to experience a massive downturn every year due to
increased number of classified loans. Loans and advances become classified due to
irregularity in repayment of installments. This surely affects the profitability of a bank since
every financial institution has to keep provisioning against its NPL. However, UCB
addresses their concerns due to incremental loan disbursement compared to deposit
mobilization in the year 2017 and increased trend of non-performing loans.
2
1.2 Problem Statement
25000
19268.09 20021.63
20000 17920.57
15000
10324.69
10000 8050.04
5000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
In 2014, UCB’s total Non-Performing Loan was 8050.04 million as disclosed. The bank’s
non-performing loan increased almost 2.5 times with a span of 5 years to 20021.63 million.
On the other hand, the bank’s total asset and liability increased 1.53 and 1.5 times
respectively when its ROA (Figure 1.2.2) & ROE (Figure 1.2.3) decreased significantly.
3
1.3 Rationale of the Study
Non-performing Loan (NPL) is a credit that is already in default or near to being default.
Many credits move toward becoming non-performing loan in the wake of being in default
for 90 days based upon the agreement terms. As specified by International Monetary Fund
(IMF), "A loan is Non-performing when payments of interest and/or principal are past due
by 90 days or more, or interest payments equal to 90 days or more have been capitalized,
refinanced, or delayed by agreement, or payments are less than 90 days overdue, but there
are other good reasons—such as a debtor filing for bankruptcy—to doubt that payments
will be made in full". Due to recent expansion of the economy, the banking sector has been
diversified and going through a transition period in general. The banking sector plays a
critical role in the economy, mobilizing savings and feeding the savings for productive
investment. The better it does so, the better the economy will perform in the long run
through more productive economic activities and reduced financial risk. The role is even
more distinct in a developing country like Bangladesh, where the banks are the major
source of long-term finance in the absence of a full-fledged mature capital market. A sound
banking system safeguards effective use of resources, facilitating effective allocation of
resources. Access to fund for business capital by individuals, firms, and projects is critical,
among others, for undertaking different social and physical infrastructure projects, creating
jobs, and increasing productivity. Developing the banking sector is a vital condition for
economic development because of its vital function of promoting capital formation, savings
and investments, as well as development in agriculture, industry and trade, and services.
On the contrary, the banking sector itself has to experience a massive downturn every year
due to increased number of classified loans. Loans and advances become classified due to
irregularity in repayment of installments. This surely affects the profitability of a bank since
every financial institution has to keep provisioning against its NPL. The sole purpose of
carrying out this study is to see how it really affects the bank’s profitability using some key
performance indicators.
4
1.4 Research Question
To reach the entire goal of the research the following questions were set:
1. Does bank’s profitability have any relation with its Non-Performing Loan?
2. What is the extent of impact NPL has on UCB’s profitability?
1.5 Objectives
1.5.1 General Objective: The general objective of the study is to assess the causes of
non-performing loans in Bangladesh.
This study considers only 5 years data to draw inference due to unavailability of data before
the year 2014 and after the year 2018. Also, this research has been conducted based on
secondary data and empirical works. Certain information could not be accessed due to
company confidentiality policies. Hence lack of expertise and of proficient knowledge are
also among the constraints.
5
Chapter 2
Literature Review
6
Literature Review
A banks future performance and profitability are mostly determined by its lending decision.
Banks are becoming more and more conscious in customer selection to avoid the negative
impact of bad loan or NPLs. The issue of NPLs has gained increasing attentions in the last
few decades. Amounts of bad loans are increasing at an alarming rate not only in the
developing and underdeveloped countries but also in developed countries. Banks’ lending
policy could have crucial influence on NPLs. A default is not entirely an irrational decision.
Rather a defaulter considers probabilistic assessment of various costs and benefits of his
decision. Lazy banking’ critically reflects on banks’ investment portfolio and lending
policy (Sinkey, 1991); (Reddy & Mohan, 2006) & (Dash, 2010)
With an evil trend of loan embezzlement among borrowers, the number of loan defaulters
is increasing at an alarming rate in our country. Recent series of scams in state-owned as
well as private commercial banks indicate how massive the issue is turning out to be. With
an attempt to find out the time-series scenario of this issue, it’s growth and relation to the
bank's profitability, the author believes that there are some qualitative factors involved that
hugely affect this issue. (Lata, R.S, 2015)
7
(Balango & Rao K. 2017) explored that there is a significant relation between profitability
and the amount of NPL. The results of the analysis specified that NPL has a negative and
significant effect on ROA while CAR has a positive and relatively insignificant effect on
ROA of commercial banks in Ethiopia.
(Kingu et al, 2018) in their research, studied the influence of NPL on bank’s profitability
using information asymmetry theory and bad management hypothesis. The study states that
occurrence of NPL is negatively related to the level of profitability in commercial banks of
Tanzania.
(Patwary & Tasneem, 2019) revealed that there is different directional short-run causality
exist between variables and their analysis confirms that two independent variables; non-
performing loan ratio and provision maintenance ratio are statistically significant to the
dependent variable; return on asset (ROA).
Non-performing loan has always been an important issue for researchers. Most studies have
been made based on commercials banks of different countries. To determine the root causes
of NPL, researchers considered different classes of variables. Among those classes,
macroeconomic variables, bank specific variables and regulatory framework have been
vastly analyzed. This research aims to find out the impact of the associated firm-specific
variables on NPL.
8
Chapter 3
Methodology
9
3.1 Research Design: This study is analytical since this study is trying to explore the cause
and effects relationship among two variables. To estimate and measure the variables the
quantitative approach is used in this study. This study is an empirical research because of
its dependence on secondary data and some other empirical works.
3.2 Sources & Collections of Data: Secondary data are analyzed in the study and all the
data are collected from the annual reports of United Commercial Bank Limited from the
period of 2014 to 2018. Annual reports are collected from the website of United
Commercial Bank Limited. In this study total 5 years data of United Commercial Bank
Limited have been applied. Due to unavailability of most recent and some previous year’s
data, I have used data from the year 2014 to 2018.
For each hypothesis, if Level of significance is <0.05, null hypothesis is rejected, and
alternative hypothesis is accepted. If Level of significance is>0.05, null hypothesis is
accepted.
10
3.4 Model & Variable Definition
This study intended to analyze the effects of NPL on a few firm-specific variables that
might suggest that if there is any impact of NPL on UCB’s profitability. Non-performing
loan to total loan ratio of UCB was used as dependent variable. As independent variables,
ROA & ROE were used.
9
8.01
8 7.38
6.79
7
6 5.23
4.62
5
4
3
2
1
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
y=a+a1x+e (Model 1)
y1= a+a2x+e (Model 2)
y= Return on Assets
y1=Return on Equity
a= Constant
x=NPLR
e= Disturbance/ Error
11
List of Variables
12
3.5 Data Analysis
Correlations
ROA NPLR
Pearson Correlation ROA 1.000 -.888
NPLR -.888 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed) ROA . .022
NPLR .022 .
N ROA 5 5
NPLR 5 5
b
Model Summary
1 1 3 .044 1.041
a. Predictors: (Constant), NPLR
b. Dependent Variable: ROA
a
ANOVA
13
Correlations
ROE NPLR
Pearson Correlation ROE 1.000 -.917
NPLR -.917 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed) ROE . .014
NPLR .014 .
N ROE 5 5
NPLR 5 5
Model Summaryb
Model R
R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of Change Statistics
R Square the Estimate R Square F Change
Change
1 .917a .841 .788 1.82537 .841 15.884
1 1 3 .028 1.033
a. Predictors: (Constant), NPLR
b. Dependent Variable: ROE
ANOVAa
14
3.6 Data Interpretation
For Model 1, Pearson’s value -0.888 indicates almost perfect negative linear relation
between the two variables. Which means our dependent variable y which is ROA reduces
significantly as the value of independent variable x (NPLr) increases. (Table 3.5.1)
For Model 2, Pearson’s value -0.917, which also indicates strong negative linear relation
between the two variables. Which means our dependent variable y 1which is ROE reduces
significantly as the value of independent variable x (NPLr) increases. (Table 3.5.4)
Coefficient of determination R 0.888 that shows the highest percentage value that the
independent variables explain 89 percent change of ROA. The goodness of fit test of the
model is also acceptable as the adjusted R2 is 0.719. The value of Durbin-Watson is 1.041
that does not lie within the range between 1.5 and 2.5 which indicates positive
autocorrelation among independent variables. In this case, we must take under
consideration that the number of independent variables is 1. (Table 3.5.2)
15
For Model 2, Coefficient of determination R 0.917 shows the highest percentage value that
the independent variables explain 92 percent change of ROA. The goodness of fit test of
the model is also satisfactory as the adjusted R2 is 0.788. The value of Durbin-Watson is
1.033 that does not lie within the range between 1.5 and 2.5 which indicates positive
autocorrelation among independent variables. In this case, we have to take under
consideration that the number of independent variables is 1. (Table 3.5.5)
The variables used in the regression are potentially endogenous as they are determined
through bank’s balance sheet constraints and are correlated with each other. From the
ANOVA table (3.7, 3.10) it is found that comparing calculated F value of 11.219 and
15.414 with table value at 4% and 3% significance level respectively, the null hypothesis
of H0 (1): There is no significant impact of NPL on ROA and H0 (2): There is no significant
impact of NPL on ROE are rejected. So, with a level of 96 % and 97% confidence we can
conclude the statement that alternative hypothesis of H1 (1): There is significant impact of
NPL on ROA and H1 (2): There is significant impact of NPL on ROE are accepted.
16
17
Chapter 4
18
The data analysis part is based on quantitative factors related to NPLs. Besides there are
some qualitative factors that act as a catalyst to this issue.
b) Lack of Effective research: There is also very little effort on the part of banks
to seek out promising entrepreneurs, particularly new ones. Attempts to
determine the characteristics of the entrepreneurs through “Know your customer
(KYC)” assessing is not adequate. For example, information is collected on the
credit status of the debtor from the CIB and an unclassified status is considered
satisfactory.
c) Poor Appraisal: When the investment activity and the borrower are selected
properly, problems may arise due to defective estimation of the optimum credit
need, which often directs to over-financing, creating scopes for fund rerouting,
over-invoicing and even money-laundering. Problems transpire at the other end
as well. Every so often the size and duration of loan is inadequate and puts the
borrower into serious cash flow problems, particularly because of compounding
high interest rate. One more aspect of deficient appraisal can be faulty
assessment of collateral, resulting in under-coverage of the loan or acceptance
of doubtful collateral.
19
d) Even if there is a high probability of being bad loans financial institutions are
very much reluctant to show the loan as a classified one as result there remain
ambiguity in financial statements of these bank.
e) As per Central Bank’s guideline, the exposures are maximum 30% (funded 15
percent and non-funded 15 percent) for a single party of the respective bank’s
paid up capital. But many of the defaulting issues represents the frequent
violation of it.
f) Political influence is one of the big reasons why the number of defaulted loans
is soaring. Parties having strong political affiliation are most likely to be
sanctioned their desired amount of loan without and considering the credit risk.
Measures given below are followed by UCB to control its NPL and protect the structural
quality of its portfolio
a) UCB maintains constant contact with its borrowers which is instrumental to NPL
management at the bank.
b) Bank’s employees maintain strong relationships and close contact with its
customers through regular visits.
c) The SME loans are supervisory in nature as the field staffs make regular visits to
the business premises of the customers and this helps limit NPLs to some extent.
d) The Bank also restructured Special Assets Management to align it with the evolving
nature of the business.
e) The field level employees are accountable for recovery according to the ACM
model in small business in the SME division.
f) Coordinated efforts of the Credit Risk Monitoring Team and the Special Assets
Management and Recovery Team to help the bank book quality assets while
keeping NPLs under check.
g) As the portfolio grew, the overall revenue also increased by 22% in last five years
apart from increasing trend of its NPL.
20
Chapter 5
21
5.1 Recommendations
a) With strong and independent internal control system and compliance, Financial
Institutions must ensure proper KYC and customer due diligence (CDD) to satisfactorily
assess a loan proposal and properly determine market potential, authenticity of the
collateral and optimum credit needs.
b) Client selection mechanisms which screen out applicants with a lack of repayment
capacity with previous record and unwillingness to make repayments.
d) Necessary legal reforms to strengthen and expedite the legal process should be
undertaken immediately.
e) Selection and appointment of board members should be done based on strict objective
measures and there should be a mechanism in place to scrutinize the performance of the
board members.
f) Political influence on sanctioning loans should be reduced for the greater interest of the
economy.
g) The prevailing corruption practices in our banking industry should be controlled through
applying legal action against willful defaulters and corrupted persons. Also, Judicial Use
of Rescheduling and Write-off should be followed
22
5.2 Conclusion
Adverse effects of Non-Performing Loan NPL reduces interest income with the principal amount
of loan. Banks need to keep provisioning against NPL which ultimately reduces net income. Also,
the primary source of banks income is the interest income. Banks cannot afford to lose their interest
income due to NPLs since they need to maintain their operating cost to run their business smoothly.
As an incidence of that bank further increases lending rates for new loans. Increasing amount of
NPLs require banks to raise provisions against probable loan losses and carry out internal
consolidation to improve asset quality, including writing-off loans. The resulting decline in credit
disbursement advances to a lower ROA and ROE, affecting bank’s solvency and liquidity. It is
difficult for banks with high NPLs to take risk due to lower profits. Altogether, the high NPL ratio
weakens the overall credit quality of the banking sector in general. Banks act as protectors of the
assets of the general public, and influence and accelerate economic activities, such as resource
mobilization both in the public and private sector. Hence it is critical to implement adequate
measures to effectively address the stream of bad loans. The study shows different causes, effects,
analysis and initiatives that can be taken regarding NPL. Banks should consider all the causes and
the consequences of NPL and develop effective credit management tools to reduce the problem so
that the bank can ensure maximum dedication on the development of the banking industry, their
business and can contribute to the economic development of the country in a positive manner.
23
References
1. Lata, R. S., 2015. Non-Performing Loan and Profitability: The Case of State Owned
Commercial Banks in Bangladesh. World Review of Business Research, 5(3), pp.
171-182.
4. Dhal, Sarat. (2003). Non-Performing Loans and Terms of Credit of Public Sector
Banks in India. RBI Occasional Papers. 24. 2003.
8. Balango, T.K. & K, M.R. (2017), “The effect of NPL on profitability of banks with
reference to commercial bank of Ethiopia”, Business and Management Research
Journal, Volume 7, Issue 5,pp. (45 – 50).
9. Kingu, P.S., Macha, D.S. & Gwahula, D.R. (2018), “Impact of Non-Performing
Loans on Bank’s Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Commercial Banks in
Tanzania”, International Journal of Scientific Research and Management
ix