Question 4 First attempt

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Alice is riding the train to her job in Paris, France. She accidentally purchased a ticket for zone 4, but she is travelling to
Report: Expected value
zone 5. She has decided to risk it and stay on the train until zone 5 with the incorrect ticket. If the transit authorities 100%
check tickets on the train, she will have to pay a fine.
1/4 Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance of the transit authorities checking tickets. If this
Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance that the transit authorities will check tickets. The fine for having the wrong happens, the cost is 5 + 300 = 305 euros (the cost of the original ticket plus the fine).
1
ticket is 300 euros. The ticket she purchased cost her 5 euros.
Incorrect 2 Incorrect 3 Correct
2/4 According to the estimate, there is a 95% chance the transit authorities do not check tickets. In
The expected
Find the total expected cost of Alice's value of a fair 6-sided die is 3.5.
train ride. Annie is participating in a winner-take-all Worldthis case,
Series of the costX 5 euros
is is (justrandom
a discrete the costvariable.
of the original ticket).
The graph below
Poker tournament that costs 10 thousand dollars to defines a probability distribution for X .
3/4 Let's multiply each cost by its probability because expected cost is the sum of all possible costs,
euros Which of the following statements are true? enter. The prize for winning the tournament is 500
each cost multiplied by its probability.
thousand dollars. Annie estimates that there is a 0.5% What is the expected value of X ?
Choose all answers that apply: chance that she will win the tournament.
Cost Probability Cost ⋅ Probability

Find the expected value of entering the tournament for Transit authorities check tickets 305 0.05 15.25
3.5 is one of the possible outcomes of Annie.
A
rolling a fair 6-sided die. Transit authorities do not check tickets 5 0.95 4.75
thousand dollars
4/4 The expected cost is 15.25 + 4.75 = 20 euros.
A fair 6-sided die is more likely to land on
B
the number 4 than the number 6.

If you rolled a fair 6-sided die a large

number of times, you should expect the
C
average of the numbers rolled to be about
3.5.

5 Incorrect

6 Correct
The expected value of the sum of two fair 6-sided dice is
7.
X is a discrete random variable. The table below defines
a probability distribution for X .
Which of the following statements are true?
4 Correct
Choose all answers that apply: What is the expected value of X ?
Alice is riding the train to her job in Paris, France. She
accidentally purchased a ticket for zone 4, but she is
No matter how many times you roll two fair
travelling to zone 5. She has decided to risk it and stay
on the train until zone 5 with the incorrect ticket. If the
6-sided dice, the average of the sum of the
A x P (X = x)
 transit authorities check tickets on the train, she will dice will be exactly 7. x P (X = x)
have to pay a fine. Question 4 First attempt
0 0.3
Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance that the B The sum of two fair 6-sided dice could be 5.
3 0.5
transit authorities will check tickets. The fine for having
Responses Draw Hints 7 0.1
Alice is riding the train to her job
theinwrong
Paris, ticket 300accidentally
France.is She purchased
euros. The ticket a ticket for zone 4, but she is travelling to
she purchased
zone 5. She has decided to riskcostit and 5 euros.
herstay the first die lands on 4, the second die will
on the train until zone 5 with the incorrect ticket. If the transitIfauthorities
C 10 0.1
check tickets on the train, she will have to pay a fine. always land on 3.
Find the total expected cost of Alice's train ride. 1/4 Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance of the transit authorities checking tickets. If this
Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance that the transit authorities will check tickets. The fine for having the wrong happens, the cost9is 5 + 300 = 305 euros (the cost of the originalCorrect
ticket plus the fine).
ticket is 300 euros. The ticket she purchasedeuros
cost her 5 euros.
2/4 According to the estimate, there is a 95% chance the transit authorities do not check tickets. In
Anouk and Tessa are playing a game where a player flips
Find the total expected cost of Alice's train ride. this case, the cost is 5 euros (just the cost of the original ticket).
a coin. If the coin lands on heads, the player receives 1
3/4 Let's multiply eachpoint.
cost Ifbythe
its coin lands on
probability tails, the
because player receives
expected 2 sum of all possible costs,
cost is the
euros points.
each cost multiplied by its probability.

The expected value of a turn is 1.5 points.

Transit authorities check tickets 305 0.05 15.25

8 Incorrect Which of the following statements are true?
Transit authorities do not check tickets 5 0.95 4.75
Choose all answers that apply:
Ivy is in Las Vegas and bet on her favorite team, the Cost Probability Cost ⋅ Probability
4/4 The expected cost is 15.25 + 4.75 = 20 euros.
Denver Dragons, to beat the Seattle Sea Turtles.
It is possible for a player to get 1.5 points
A
7 Correct If the Denver Dragons win, she will win 10 dollars. If the on a turn.
Seattle Sea Turtles win, she will lose 11 dollars (the extra
X is a discrete random variable. The graph below dollar is commission). Ivy estimates that there is a 50%
If they play a large number of turns, they
defines a probability distribution for X . chance of the Denver Dragons winning (there cannot be
B should expect to average about 1.5 points
a tie).
per turn.
What is the expected value of X ?
Find the expected return of placing this bet.
The total number of points from 2 turns
C
dollars must be exactly 3 points.

11 Incorrect
 In Las Vegas, a particular sports bet has about a 30% 12 Correct
Question 4
chance of winning.
If the bet wins, the bettor will win 15 First attempt
dollars. If the bet loses, the bettor will lose 10 dollars. X is a discrete random variable. The table below defines
10 Correct a probability distribution for X .
The expected return of placing one of these bets is
Responses Draw Hints
Alice is riding the train to her job in Paris, France. She accidentally purchased a ticket for zone 4,−2.50
but she is travelling to
dollars.
X is a discrete random variable. The graph below What is the expected value of X ?
zone 5. She has decided to risk it and stay on the train until zone 5 with the incorrect ticket. If the transit authorities
defines a probability distribution for X .
check tickets on the train, she will have to pay a fine. Which of the following statements are true?
1/4 Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance of the transit authorities checking tickets. If this
What is the expected value of X ? happens, the cost is 5 + 300 = 305 euros (the cost of the original ticket plus the fine).
Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance that the transit authorities will check tickets. The fineChoose
for having the wrong
all answers that apply:
ticket is 300 euros. The ticket she purchased cost her 5 euros. x P (X = x)
2/4 According to the estimate, there is a 95% chance the transit authorities do not check tickets. In
It is possible for a bettor to place 2 of this
−7 0.2
case, the cost is 5 euros (just the cost of the original ticket).
these
Find the total expected cost of Alice's train ride. A
bets and win both of them. −3 0.1
3/4 Let's multiply each cost by its probability because expected cost is the sum of all possible costs,
euros each cost multiplied3by its probability.
0.4
If a bettor places a large number of these
bets, they should expect to average a return 7 0.3
B Cost Probability Cost ⋅ Probability
of about −2.50 dollars per bet.
Transit authorities check tickets 305 0.05 15.25
Transit authorities do not check tickets 5 0.95 4.75
The average return per bet from 2 of these 15 Correct
C
bets must be exactly −2.50 dollars.
4/4 The expected cost is 15.25 + 4.75 = 20 euros.
John just bought a brand new cell phone and is
considering buying a warranty. The warranty costs 200
euros and is worth 1000 euros if his phone breaks.
John
estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone
breaking.

Find the expected value of buying the warranty.

13 Incorrect euros

Worldwide Oil Transport Incorporated is considering

hiring a small oil spill response team to follow one of
their ships from Alaska to Russia.
14 Incorrect

The oil spill response team would cost 50 thousand

A teetotum is a spinning top that has an equal
dollars but would save an estimated 2500 thousand
probability of landing on each side. The expected value
dollars in the event of an oil spill. The ship is estimated
of one spin of a 12-sided teetotum (labeled with the
to have a 1% chance of generating an oil spill.
numbers from 1 to 12) is 6.5.
Find the expected value of hiring the oil spill response
Which of the following statements are true?
team.

Choose all answers that apply:

thousand dollars

Th ld l d h b 10
 The teetotum could land on the number 10.
A
Question 4 First attempt

The teetotum is more likely to land on the

B
number 6 than any other number.
Responses Draw Hints
Alice is riding the train to her job in Paris, France. She accidentally purchased a ticket for zone 4, but she is travelling to
zone 5. She has decided to risk it and stay on the train until zone 5 with the incorrect ticket. If the transit authorities
check tickets on the train, she 16 will have to pay a fine. Correct No matter how many times you spin the
C teetotum, the average number 1 /from Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance of the transit authorities checking tickets. If this
4 the
spins will
Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance that the transit authorities will check tickets. The fine for having the wrong be exactly 6.5. happens, the cost is 5 + 300 = 305 euros (the cost of the original ticket plus the fine).
X is a discrete random variable. The graph below
ticket is 300 euros. The ticket she purchased cost her 5 euros.
defines a probability distribution for X . 2/4 According to the estimate, there is a 95% chance the transit authorities do not check tickets. In
Find the total expected cost of Alice's train ride. this case, the cost is 5 euros (just the cost of the original ticket).
What is the expected value of X ?
3/4 Let's multiply each cost by its probability because expected cost is the sum of all possible costs,
euros each cost multiplied by its probability.

Cost Probability Cost ⋅ Probability

Transit authorities check tickets 305 0.05 15.25

Transit authorities do not check tickets 5 0.95 4.75

4/4 The expected cost is 15.25 + 4.75 = 20 euros.