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Time Series Project

The document provides instructions for a time series forecasting project to analyze wine sales data from the 20th century and forecast future sales. Participants are asked to perform exploratory data analysis, build and evaluate exponential smoothing, regression, and ARIMA models on training and test data, and select the best model to make a 12-month forecast with recommendations. A business report submitting answers to questions and a Jupyter notebook are required, and any plagiarized work will not be graded.

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Tina
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1K views2 pages

Time Series Project

The document provides instructions for a time series forecasting project to analyze wine sales data from the 20th century and forecast future sales. Participants are asked to perform exploratory data analysis, build and evaluate exponential smoothing, regression, and ARIMA models on training and test data, and select the best model to make a 12-month forecast with recommendations. A business report submitting answers to questions and a Jupyter notebook are required, and any plagiarized work will not be graded.

Uploaded by

Tina
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Description

Dear Participants,

Please find below the Time Series Forecasting Project instructions:

 You have to submit 2 files : 

1. Answer Report: In this, you need to submit all the answers to all the questions in
a sequential manner. It should include a detailed explanation of the approach
used, insights, inferences, all outputs of codes like graphs, tables etc. Your
report should not be filled with codes. You will be evaluated based on the
business report.

Note: In the business report, there should be a proper interpretation of all


the tasks performed along with actionable insights. Only the presence of
interpretation of the models is not sufficient to be eligible for full marks in
each of the criteria mentioned in the rubric. Marks will be deducted
wherever inferences are not clearly mentioned.
THE REPORT HAS TO BE STRICTLY SUBMITTED IN A PDF/DOC FORMAT.
ANY OTHER FORMAT WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED FOR GRADING. 6 Marks
are allotted for the "Quality of Business Report".

2. Jupyter Notebook file: This is a must and will be used for reference while
evaluating
 Any assignment found copied/ plagiarized with another person will not be graded and
marked as zero.
 Please ensure timely submission as a post-deadline assignment will not be accepted.

Problem:

For this particular assignment, the data of different types of wine sales in the 20th century is to
be analysed. Both of these data are from the same company but of different wines. As an analyst
in the ABC Estate Wines, you are tasked to analyse and forecast Wine Sales in the 20th century.

Data set for the Problem: Sparkling.csv and Rose.csv

Please do perform the following questions on each of these two data sets separately.

1. Read the data as an appropriate Time Series data and plot the data.
2. Perform appropriate Exploratory Data Analysis to understand the data and also perform
decomposition.
3. Split the data into training and test. The test data should start in 1991.
4. Build various exponential smoothing models on the training data and evaluate the model
using RMSE on the test data.
Other models such as regression,naïve forecast models, simple average models etc.
should also be built on the training data and check the performance on the test data
using RMSE.
5. Check for the stationarity of the data on which the model is being built on using
appropriate statistical tests and also mention the hypothesis for the statistical test. If the
data is found to be non-stationary, take appropriate steps to make it stationary. Check
the new data for stationarity and comment.
Note: Stationarity should be checked at alpha = 0.05.
6. Build an automated version of the ARIMA/SARIMA model in which the parameters are
selected using the lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) on the training data and
evaluate this model on the test data using RMSE.
7. Build ARIMA/SARIMA models based on the cut-off points of ACF and PACF on the
training data and evaluate this model on the test data using RMSE.
8. Build a table with all the models built along with their corresponding parameters and the
respective RMSE values on the test data.
9. Based on the model-building exercise, build the most optimum model(s) on the complete
data and predict 12 months into the future with appropriate confidence intervals/bands.
10. Comment on the model thus built and report your findings and suggest the measures that
the company should be taking for future sales.

Important Note: Please reflect on all that you have learned while working on this project.
This step is critical in cementing all your concepts and closing the loop. Please write
down your thoughts here.

All the very best!

Regards,

Program Office

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